I think Dubas may have a bit of a mis-read on the market... players are going to be eager to sign deals before getting shut out of the remaining cap and budget space this year.
Yeah, the guys who are going for around league minimum might stick it out a bit.... but the mid-tier guys are going to get nervous and maybe be willing to jump on an early deal. Guys like Hoffman, Dadonov, Barrie, Toffoli, Brodie, Vatanen, Shattenkirk, Gurtafsson, Haula, Hamonic, Tanev, Gudas, Schultz.
As for how it impacts the Leafs potential need to move both AJ and Kerfoot, I think Dubas did well to move on Kapanen (while returning an all-futures deal) when he did. With the influx of UFAs that are basically the same age as these 2; it's hard to justify giving up much --but there will still be some who prefer the upside that both players have, as well as the locked in deals for the next 3 years.
The challenge of course is -- if you wait until after the mid-tier guys are gone, it's quite possible that there's just no more budget space left for these two elsewhere... which means that realistically, you've gotta have some idea of what your roster cap composition looks like before tomorrow -- notably that #1 RD spot.
1. Is it Alex Pietrangelo at ~$8m, Kerfoot & Johnsson gone, replaced by the likes of a Crouse and maybe a Mark Jankowski? Mikheyev & Dermott on one year deals to keep their cap hit down.
2. Is it TJ Brodie, Travis Hamonic, or Chris Tanev at somewhere between $3.5m to $5m, with one of Kerfoot or Johnsson gone? Josh Manson would also fit in this cap hit envelope.
3. Is it a guy like Aaron Ekblad, Colton Parayko or Matt Dumba at somewhere between $5.5m and $7.5m? Ekblad would mean both have to go unless Nylander is used in the return, for Dumba or Parayko you can probably get away with trading 1 of Kerfoot/AJ, and they'd likely be heading the other way regardless -- so less of a concern. The big challenge with this approach -- Parayko isn't going to be available unless Pietrangelo resigns with the Blues, and Ekblad may not be available unless Pietrangelo is signing with the Panthers. If it's going to be Ekblad, you probably want to keep both Kerfoot & Johnsson as Nylander goes the other way.
Dubas is in somewhat of a no-win situation. If we assume he's going UFA with option 1 or 2, then he'd likely be best served making his decision on which of Kerfoot/Johnsson to maybe keep -- and moving on 1 of them before things get going here. If it ends up being Pietrangelo, at least you're only stuck with moving 1 guy after the fact.
Yeah, the guys who are going for around league minimum might stick it out a bit.... but the mid-tier guys are going to get nervous and maybe be willing to jump on an early deal. Guys like Hoffman, Dadonov, Barrie, Toffoli, Brodie, Vatanen, Shattenkirk, Gurtafsson, Haula, Hamonic, Tanev, Gudas, Schultz.
As for how it impacts the Leafs potential need to move both AJ and Kerfoot, I think Dubas did well to move on Kapanen (while returning an all-futures deal) when he did. With the influx of UFAs that are basically the same age as these 2; it's hard to justify giving up much --but there will still be some who prefer the upside that both players have, as well as the locked in deals for the next 3 years.
The challenge of course is -- if you wait until after the mid-tier guys are gone, it's quite possible that there's just no more budget space left for these two elsewhere... which means that realistically, you've gotta have some idea of what your roster cap composition looks like before tomorrow -- notably that #1 RD spot.
1. Is it Alex Pietrangelo at ~$8m, Kerfoot & Johnsson gone, replaced by the likes of a Crouse and maybe a Mark Jankowski? Mikheyev & Dermott on one year deals to keep their cap hit down.
2. Is it TJ Brodie, Travis Hamonic, or Chris Tanev at somewhere between $3.5m to $5m, with one of Kerfoot or Johnsson gone? Josh Manson would also fit in this cap hit envelope.
3. Is it a guy like Aaron Ekblad, Colton Parayko or Matt Dumba at somewhere between $5.5m and $7.5m? Ekblad would mean both have to go unless Nylander is used in the return, for Dumba or Parayko you can probably get away with trading 1 of Kerfoot/AJ, and they'd likely be heading the other way regardless -- so less of a concern. The big challenge with this approach -- Parayko isn't going to be available unless Pietrangelo resigns with the Blues, and Ekblad may not be available unless Pietrangelo is signing with the Panthers. If it's going to be Ekblad, you probably want to keep both Kerfoot & Johnsson as Nylander goes the other way.
Dubas is in somewhat of a no-win situation. If we assume he's going UFA with option 1 or 2, then he'd likely be best served making his decision on which of Kerfoot/Johnsson to maybe keep -- and moving on 1 of them before things get going here. If it ends up being Pietrangelo, at least you're only stuck with moving 1 guy after the fact.
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