Proposal: NJD/NSH

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I understand.

I always weigh that a bit, would I keep a prospect if he's apart of the plan for the long term future if I could have a real great chance at a cup? What if the team wins the cup? Would I even care that they left?

Maybe Nemec is a big part of the team and helps get the team over the finish line in 1-2 years too.

It's just a short sighted move, Devils have basically Jack Hughes's contract (next 6.5 years) as a window to win a cup minimum. Cup runs are full of random luck and BS, there's no reason to mortgage the future here, try to have a contender for 6.5 years and hope to get lucky / over the hump.

Again I think this trade only happens if Nashville decides they need to trade Saros for futures, there won't be a hockey trade as the Nashville fans are pointing out.

 

[My3Sons]

Two runs with a top goalie is attractive but it’s unlikely a win now team takes a good player off its roster to add said goalie other than the goalie he is replacing. Any good team acquiring Saros likely wants a futures based deal but that would signal a rebuild for Nashville unless they see the heir apparent ready to go. I could see Saros extend in Nashville the way Hellebuyck did with Winnipeg. The goalie market must be soft and I’m skeptical Nashville wants to rebuild.

 

[McJedi]

****READ FIRST****

I'm going to preface this and say that I am pretty much a 3rd party fan, always a soft spot for the Predators and I do think the Devils are going to win a cup in the next 1-3 years.

Don't go for over the top reactions, I think my initial proposal might be slanted too in favor of the Predators but what do you think of it as a base, and what could be added/removed to make it as a fair as possible?

To NSH

Holtz
1st 2024
5th 2024
Vanacek
Lazar

To NJD

Saros
Trenin (50% retained)


Thanks in advance

First off. Remove Trenin.

No reason you'd be able to land him with this otherwise weak package going to Nashville. That's crazy greedy. But the real problem is Holtz is looking way to bust-tastic to be the base of a deal for an elite G. Really don't see Nashville even entertaining this.

Replace Holtz with Nenec and try it.

 

[Rhodes 81]

You guys need to settle down. This kind of stuff just isn't even close for Saros alone, stop trying to get additional pieces also. There's no way we would even consider Mercer for Saros, so just let it go.

I say this as respectfully as possible, but Mercer is 21 years old, just entering his 3rd season, and would have lead your team in scoring last year. I understand what you're trying to say is "Saros isn't available," but why not just say that?

Engaging in this thread at all is operating under the presupposition that Nashville has decided they do want to trade Saros. In the event that this was the case, you're not going to find many more valuable pieces in an offer than Mercer. Goalies just don't return premier pieces like that.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I'd rather add to Saros if we are moving him than take a lesser package for him. There has to be something obtainable we could get with Saros and all the picks and prospects we have.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I say this as respectfully as possible, but Mercer is 21 years old, just entering his 3rd season, and would have lead your team in scoring last year. I understand what you're trying to say is "Saros isn't available," but why not just say that?

Engaging in this thread at all is operating under the presupposition that Nashville has decided they do want to trade Saros. In the event that this was the case, you're not going to find many more valuable pieces in an offer than Mercer. Goalies just don't return premier pieces like that.

Which might be true, but, is ridiculous. A guy who is considered top 5 in league, can’t fetch a guy who might never be top 10 in his position.

 

[HBK27]

Which might be true, but, is ridiculous. A guy who is considered top 5 in league, can’t fetch a guy who might never be top 10 in his position.

Mercer is also 6 1/2 years younger than Saros and under team control for an additional 3 (RFA) seasons.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Mercer is also 6 1/2 years younger than Saros and under team control for an additional 3 (RFA) seasons.

And I didn’t say it was the wrong call. I’m just commenting on how little value goalies generally have. That a top 5 goalie, probably top 3, won’t get you a forward who isn’t a top 10 forward and may never be, just because it’s pretty darn hard to be one of the best at anything. Also, when does a team go for it, reduce their window, in exchange for a guy who will give you 2 great chances instead of 6 pretty good chances. Once again, Ii realize goalies don’t have that value just thinking onscreen ( not out loud).

 

[WTFMAN99]

And I didn’t say it was the wrong call. I’m just commenting on how little value goalies generally have. That a top 5 goalie, probably top 3, won’t get you a forward who isn’t a top 10 forward and may never be, just because it’s pretty darn hard to be one of the best at anything. Also, when does a team go for it, reduce their window, in exchange for a guy who will give you 2 great chances instead of 6 pretty good chances. Once again, Ii realize goalies don’t have that value just thinking onscreen ( not out loud).

Yes - elite goalies just don't fetch enough but Saros has that awesome contract.

It's not necessary to have a top goalie, Vegas won with a "good" goalie, not an elite one but everything else with their team was top end.

On the other hand, Tampa had Vas helping them win cups too so you can't say just any goalie can be lucky enough to win, an elite goalie on an elite team stacks the odds in your favor. I think the Devils with Saros just get incredibly difficult to beat.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I say this as respectfully as possible, but Mercer is 21 years old, just entering his 3rd season, and would have lead your team in scoring last year. I understand what you're trying to say is "Saros isn't available," but why not just say that?

Let's put it this way: Mercer would not be the best player on the Preds today. Saros already is. Mercer is a very fine young player, but he just does not have the same level of impact. Is it possible he might one day, as he develops further? I think to do so, he'd have to become one of the top centers in the game, scoring over a point-per-game. This is also perhaps possible. But it's not assured. Whereas for us today, Saros is already an assured commodity at that level of impact. Why give up that assurance on a gamble?

I think it's fair to both provide that rationale, while also providing the public service of translating it as, practically speaking, "Saros isn't available". Because otherwise, people will just continue to say "everybody is available... for the right price". And think they know what that price is. I'm here to say, no, I don't think you do know what that price is.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

You guys need to settle down. This kind of stuff just isn't even close for Saros alone, stop trying to get additional pieces also. There's no way we would even consider Mercer for Saros, so just let it go.

if thats the case, you might as well shut all these Saros threads down because no team is giving up a Mercer level player (and more) for a goalie. Not one. Not how goalie trades work.

It will be the same song and dance IF Saros is dealt. Nashville fans asking for the moon, and getting upset at the eventual return.

 

[WTFMAN99]

if thats the case, you might as well shut all these Saros threads down because no team is giving up a Mercer level player (and more) for a goalie. Not one. Not how goalie trades work.

It will be the same song and dance IF Saros is dealt. Nashville fans asking for the moon, and getting upset at the eventual return.

To be fair, I started the thread and although I like both teams, I wouldn't classify myself as a hardcore fan of either. I thought I managed to find a decent proposal that would assist both teams

 

[Soundgarden]

if thats the case, you might as well shut all these Saros threads down because no team is giving up a Mercer level player (and more) for a goalie. Not one. Not how goalie trades work.

It will be the same song and dance IF Saros is dealt. Nashville fans asking for the moon, and getting upset at the eventual return.

Nashville fans aren't the ones making these threads.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

if thats the case, you might as well shut all these Saros threads down because no team is giving up a Mercer level player (and more) for a goalie. Not one. Not how goalie trades work.

Precisely my point.

It will be the same song and dance IF Saros is dealt. Nashville fans asking for the moon, and getting upset at the eventual return

No we won’t be upset, because Saros won’t be traded. He’s not available.

 

[herzausstein]

To be fair, I started the thread and although I like both teams, I wouldn't classify myself as a hardcore fan of either. I thought I managed to find a decent proposal that would assist both teams

It probably does help both teams in the long run. Just fans are attached to the asset in question. Most Nashville fans dont want to trade Saros. It throws them into fullblown rebuild territory. You see teams in perpetual rebuild and it is hard to say... yeah i want some of that action.

 

[WTFMAN99]

It probably does help both teams in the long run. Just fans are attached to the asset in question. Most Nashville fans dont want to trade Saros. It throws them into fullblown rebuild territory. You see teams in perpetual rebuild and it is hard to say... yeah i want some of that action.

Credit to pretty much all the posters in the thread, it hasn't devolved into something silly. People articulated their stances pretty well.

 

[herzausstein]

Credit to pretty much all the posters in the thread, it hasn't devolved into something silly. People articulated their stances pretty well.

Honestly, if saros gets traded the original offer is quite generous. Good prospect, 1st, replacement goalie a notch below saros. Its also probably more than he would actually return in an actual trade.

 

[Rhodes 81]

Let's put it this way: Mercer would not be the best player on the Preds today. Saros already is. Mercer is a very fine young player, but he just does not have the same level of impact. Is it possible he might one day, as he develops further? I think to do so, he'd have to become one of the top centers in the game, scoring over a point-per-game. This is also perhaps possible. But it's not assured. Whereas for us today, Saros is already an assured commodity at that level of impact. Why give up that assurance on a gamble?

I think it's fair to both provide that rationale, while also providing the public service of translating it as, practically speaking, "Saros isn't available". Because otherwise, people will just continue to say "everybody is available... for the right price". And think they know what that price is. I'm here to say, no, I don't think you do know what that price is.

Yeah... I don't disagree with anything here. My point is that the world where Nashville decides to trade Saros is one where they are building for the future rather than the present. In that world, Mercer is still likely to be one of your top players when it matters again whereas Saros would likely be gone as a UFA. That's just the reality of selling a player as a rebuilding team. The Devils did a number of these in the past 5 years, including trading Hall for Kevin Bahl and the pick that turned into Mercer. Hall was a sure thing, recent MVP. Bahl, the picks, and other players in that deal that didn't make it were all gambles. Hall is still the best player involved in that deal, but he would no longer be playing for the Devils whereas those two are both going to be significant contributors to the Devils for years to come.

Nashville also has Askarov as one of their best assets outside of Saros. At some point you have to choose one of those players, and which one you choose likely decides the timeline of when you're building toward competing. If you believe that is within the next 3 years, then extend Saros and trade Askarov. If not, you're much better off getting something for Saros than nothing.

As a fellow southern hockey fan, I hope for you that Nashville has it all figured out and will be a playoff team for years to come. But from the outside looking in, it seems willfully ignorant of your team's current makeup and options to say there is no chance Saros would be traded.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Yeah... I don't disagree with anything here. My point is that the world where Nashville decides to trade Saros is one where they are building for the future rather than the present. In that world, Mercer is still likely to be one of your top players when it matters again whereas Saros would likely be gone as a UFA

That is a world which does not currently exist, however. I would think that one important premise of a trade proposal here is that it’s posed in a present tense reality. Because otherwise there are basically an infinite number of potential future scenarios which could arise in team or player circumstances to change the valuations involved.

. That's just the reality of selling a player as a rebuilding team. The Devils did a number of these in the past 5 years, including trading Hall for Kevin Bahl and the pick that turned into Mercer. Hall was a sure thing, recent MVP. Bahl, the picks, and other players in that deal that didn't make it were all gambles. Hall is still the best player involved in that deal, but he would no longer be playing for the Devils whereas those two are both going to be significant contributors to the Devils for years to come.

Nashville also has Askarov as one of their best assets outside of Saros. At some point you have to choose one of those players, and which one you choose likely decides the timeline of when you're building toward competing. If you believe that is within the next 3 years, then extend Saros and trade Askarov. If not, you're much better off getting something for Saros than nothing.

As a fellow southern hockey fan, I hope for you that Nashville has it all figured out and will be a playoff team for years to come. But from the outside looking in, it seems willfully ignorant of your team's current makeup and options to say there is no chance Saros would be traded.

There is no chance today. Maybe some of the things you are talking about will enter the picture in February or July, but I do believe the OP’s offer was intended to be more immediate.

We have discussed the future possibilities and parameters in great detail back on the Nashville board, we are certainly aware of them. That doesn’t change today’s answer.

 

[Petes2424]

The thing is, Nashville isn’t in a position where they’re forced to trade Saros. That means he’s gonna cost quite a bit. On this deal, they’d have to be in love with Holtz, to make this deal. Being a winger, that’s likely not the case.

If he’s going to be moved for a young player, and two picks, that young player will likely be a C or Dman, unless the winger has a chance to be an annual 30 goal scorer. Not sure anyone sees that in Holtz.

 

[PettersonHughes]

Neutral fan here, I think the Devils may have more luck in getting Hart from Philly than a top goalie like Saros, when the discrepancy in perceived value for the assets in question is so great. Mercer's 3rd line in NJ at the moment, but Devils fans clearly see the upside in him. Saros is clearly one of the top goalies, but market returns for star goalies often does make it tough to trade him, and Predators might not be ready for a full-scale sell-off? I think if Philly blows it up Jersey would be all over Hart and something like the OP offer (minus the 2nd 1st rounder) would probably get it done. Like someone said, VGK got it done with Hill and won it all, so Jersey likely doesn't need that star goalie to win it all either.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

I'll toss one out in the spirit of the thread.

Vanecek
Nemec

For

Saros
Prokop

 

[Soundgarden]

I'll toss one out in the spirit of the thread.

Vanecek
Nemec

For

Saros
Prokop

I don't know if Prokop will be an NHLer, seems to have regressed some.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Neutral fan here, I think the Devils may have more luck in getting Hart from Philly than a top goalie like Saros

The thing is Vanecek-Schmid pairing isn't that bad for NJ. They will provide league average goaltending that will be good enough to take NJ to playoffs (like they did last season).

The question mark is Vanecek probably isn't good enough to propel the team to a Stanley cup. Jury is still out on Schmid.

Therefore if and when NJ entertains trades for a goalie, they will be looking at the elite top tier. I don't think Hart is that. That's why the fanbase is locked in to the likes of Hellebuyck and Saros.

Swapping Hart for Vanecek probably isnt going to provide an enough upgrade that gets NJ to the next level of being a cup contender.

 

[Armourboy]

Ultimately if Trotz trade Saros it means a full on rebuild or that he thinks Askarov is ready to go. Based on Trotz's thoughts and actions neither of those seem likely.

Trotz doesn't seem to be interested in tanking so to get Saros is going to mean you are basically going to need to offer him something that would basically make him willing to take that risk and change direction.

It's ultimately why all Saros threads are pointless. Trotz has basically stated he would only move him for the right offer. That offer is essentially unrealistic so the odds of it happening are basically zero.

He has stated he wants an elite young player for Saros, so what Preds fans are saying the offer has to be isn't wishful thinking or out of left field, its what Trotz himself has stated it would take.