Salary Cap: NJD Major Offseason Part III

[njdevils1982]

The first time I ever heard anything about unsustainable shooting percentage was Petr Prucha. And that wound up being true. But I think it's been used as a line too liberally at times too, especially the last couple years - to me unsustainable is at least 5% above the norm and a level the player's never hit. I don't really know if there's an unsustainable bad shooting percentage after watching the Devils the last five years, I keep hearing they have an unsustainable bad percentage but it keeps being bad.

I don't even know how important shooting percentage is in a vaccum cause theoretically you can have a worse shooting percentage next season and score more goals if you get more pucks to the net. I mean let's say Henrique goes down to 17% next year, that's what 25-26 goals with the same amount of shots on net? But another ten shots on net = two more goals.

every time i see that name i think of this

 

[Zippy316]

We need to separate the concept of our team v. that of guys like Palmieri and Henrique. Our top six was actually okay last year. Our bottom six was a significant drag on our even strength goal scoring, and them improving probably has a limited effect on the boxcar stats of Palmieri and Henrique.

Further, Palmieri shot at 12.4% at 5v5 last year, which was a career high and well above his performance in 14-15. A 12.4% ES shooting percentage put Palmieri at 49 out of 260 forwards who played over 750 ES minutes. I wouldn't count on that number increasing.

Palmieri will likely be with Zajac again next year, and maybe with Boucher or Blandisi for most of the season rather than Kalinin. That might increase his shot rate a bit, but not by a whole lot.

I think 30 is probably the high end for Palmieri right now. He could hit that occasionally, but unless he takes a step in his ES shot generation, he's going to be top out around there.

I understand the logic behind this, but watching Palmieri, it's clear his shot is top-end. He can score from some narrow angles and can open up space for himself pretty nicely.

Personally, I think once the team improves Palmieri hovers around 30. With better offense talent and guys that can open up the ice more, I think his production will end up going up rather than down. The Devils don't have players skilled enough or creative enough to open up space in the offensive zone right now. I think as that improves, Palmieri has the skills to capitalize on that space.

 

[CerebralGenesis]

Except it rarely leads to quality of shots just going up and his shooting percentage going up. I think a lot of his shooting percentage going up has to do with a bigger role and more opportunity to create offense so 20-30 is expected but expecting more is probably unlikely.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Assuming both AH and KP play in the same amount of games as they did this season, I think its reasonable to expect Henrique will have about 23-27 goals and Palmieri will have 25-30

 

[MullerBrotenVerbeek]

I understand the logic behind this, but watching Palmieri, it's clear his shot is top-end. He can score from some narrow angles and can open up space for himself pretty nicely.

Personally, I think once the team improves Palmieri hovers around 30. With better offense talent and guys that can open up the ice more, I think his production will end up going up rather than down. The Devils don't have players skilled enough or creative enough to open up space in the offensive zone right now. I think as that improves, Palmieri has the skills to capitalize on that space.

Agreed. Based on some of the goals he scored this year, KPalm is a shooter. He will get it done.

 

[hutter]

I do think that Henrique is an outlier as far as shooting percentage is concerned (I won't be surprised if he hovers around 15-16% before he reaches physical decline), and I think 30 is a possibility again, but definitely not likely without increasing his shot totals. Might be doable if Cammalleri somehow stays healthy. I think he can put up more POINTS with a better team though. I don't think he scores the same way Tanguay does/did either way.

Palmieri is more likely to hit 30 again, but i'd like to see more shots before I say it's likely.

 

[Billdo]

Elias is done. Enough of this notion that he'd score more than 20 points.

30-40 LOL

Well I guess that's it then. You've made your point, backed it up with facts, and settled the debate.

 

[Bleedred]

Well I guess that's it then. You've made your point, backed it up with facts, and settled the debate.

Yeah assuming Elias would only be good for 20 points is ridiculous.

Even Jacob Josefson was on pace for 18 or 19 points over 82 games this year.

I think if Elias played and didn't score more than 20 points, it probably means that he was injured for a long time like he was this year.

There's always the possibility that he falls off a cliff completely, but he was a 40-ish point pace player in 14-15 and a 40-ish point pace player this year in a very very small sample size. I think he's probably a 30-ish point pace player next year at worst, barring a horrific collapse and plunge to the bottom. But if he couldn't reach 20 points, it means he spent an awful lot of time on the shelf injured.

He had almost half of 20 points in 16 games this year.

 

[R8Devs]

I wonder if the Devils are interested in Daniel pribyl. 6 foot 3, right shot, and produced well in the Czech league.

 

[thethinglonger]

I wonder if the Devils are interested in Daniel pribyl. 6 foot 3, right shot, and produced well in the Czech league.

Definitely seems like somebody to keep an eye on. I'll try and watch some videos of him

 

[ghdi]

Its far more likely that 41 year old Elias would not be good for more than 20 points. The days of relying on him are more likely over than not.

I said in another post on another forum, I'm all for bringing him back, but there's too many question marks in every respect right now today to commit to a 41 year old that is coming off a 16 game season. The situation and reasoning has to work. Sentimentality was one of Lou's biggest mistakes his last few years here. If the situation is right, Id love to see him end his career here. He will be the next banner man regardless and no one can debate that.

If we get to mid to late July and the dust has settled on UFAs and the draft is past and such thats the time to start seriously thinking of penciling him in. We are in a position where we could make multiple SIGNIFICANT forward additions this offseason through any # of means and committing a top line roster spot to him right now is not something that should be done. He's not a replacement for a 4th liner that may not come back. He's a skill player that could be significantly diminished and the only way he's likely to be effective is on a top 2 scoring line. We've seen what happens (Rolston) sometimes.

Yeah assuming Elias would only be good for 20 points is ridiculous.

He's 41 and coming off a 16 game season. Assuming he'd be good for more than 20 is just as ridiculous. I personally think he'd get more because he's always been skilled, but he's not reliable or guaranteed for anything more at this point in his career. Patty is in a situation where we don't have to rely on him anymore. The situation has to be right to bring him back at this point and the make up of this team in October is a long way from being decided.

 

[Billdo]

Its far more likely that 41 year old Elias would not be good for more than 20 points. The days of relying on him are more likely over than not.

I said in another post on another forum, I'm all for bringing him back, but there's too many question marks in every respect right now today to commit to a 41 year old that is coming off a 16 game season. The situation and reasoning has to work. Sentimentality was one of Lou's biggest mistakes his last few years here. If the situation is right, Id love to see him end his career here. He will be the next banner man regardless and no one can debate that.

If we get to mid to late July and the dust has settled on UFAs and the draft is past and such thats the time to start seriously thinking of penciling him in. We are in a position where we could make multiple SIGNIFICANT forward additions this offseason through any # of means and committing a top line roster spot to him right now is not something that should be done. He's not a replacement for a 4th liner that may not come back. He's a skill player that could be significantly diminished and the only way he's likely to be effective is on a top 2 scoring line. We've seen what happens (Rolston) sometimes.



He's 41 and coming off a 16 game season. Assuming he'd be good for more than 20 is just as ridiculous. I personally think he'd get more because he's always been skilled, but he's not reliable or guaranteed for anything more at this point in his career. Patty is in a situation where we don't have to rely on him anymore. The situation has to be right and the make up of this team in October is a long way from being decided.

Nobody is looking (relying) on him to put up 60 points. To say he couldn't get 30-40 as a 3rd liner with some PP time is foolish though. If they can upgrade, go for it, but we could do worse as was evident by the crap we iced this year in the bottom 6. Rolston is a different player than Elias so the comparison doesn't work either.

 

[ghdi]

Nobody is looking (relying) on him to put up 60 points. To say he couldn't get 30-40 as a 3rd liner with some PP time is foolish though. If they can upgrade, go for it, but we could do worse as was evident by the crap we iced this year in the bottom 6. Rolston is a different player than Elias so the comparison doesn't work either.

And your "comparison/point" is completely silly. Elias is NOT a 3rd line/bottom 6 forward!

When is the last time a Devils 3rd liner over age 35 (playing regular/majority minutes on the 3rd line) scored 30-40 points? You don't play guys with Elias' skill set on the 3rd line. You can't just slot a guy somewhere randomly like this. He's unlikely to be effective in that sort of role. 3rd and/or 4th lines play specific roles 99% of the time. He's still a scoring forward and is clearly diminished, the extent of which is unknown since his sample size this year is barely there.

He's 41 years old and played 16 games this season. Better players will potentially be obtainable on the open market as well as through trade that fit a bottom 6 role on this team or potential upgrades to the top 6 that will push players more suited to a 3rd line down that will fit that role better than Elias.

Its too soon to commit anything to a 41 year old coming off less than a 1/4 of a season of ice time regardless of past accomplishments. If it works, by all means he should be brought back. I don't think we're even close to that being decided yet. The offseason has barely even begun, and largely hasn't at all yet.

 

[devilsblood]

A 3rd line of Elias Zacha and DSP would be sweet.

I'd like to think Elias would be open to that given he is older, he is coming off a 16 game season, and that would not be a defensive line looking to merely hold the fort. And perhaps most importantly, no team in the league is going to offer a top 6 spot anyways. So most likely if he wants to play, it's going to be as a 3rd line guy. At least that will be the role he is penciled in for early in the year.

And if Elias is healthy, he will produce at a decent clip, I have little doubt of that.

 

[Bleedred]

A 3rd line of Elias Zacha and DSP would be sweet.

I'd like to think Elias would be open to that given he is older, he is coming off a 16 game season, and that would not be a defensive line looking to merely hold the fort. And perhaps most importantly, no team in the league is going to offer a top 6 spot anyways. So most likely if he wants to play, it's going to be as a 3rd line guy. At least that will be the role he is penciled in for early in the year.

And if Elias is healthy, he will produce at a decent clip, I have little doubt of that.

That 3rd line would be 100k times better than ANY 3rd line configuration we had all season long this past year.

 

[NJDevs26]

Third line guys don't have to be defense only plugs either, there's no third line type of player we need to get although if Patty is coming back it'd be nice to play him with big bodies like DSP and Zacha. If anything the Zajac line is used partially like Madden/Pandolfo only with better offense.

 

[Marshal Rochambeau]

Let's say, completely hypothetically, Shero gets a call for the eleventh overall and it's a solid offer. What exactly is the offer?

My opinion is that it's Tampa who needs to reserve some cap space by trading away RFA Kucherov.

 

[Zippy316]

Let's say, completely hypothetically, Shero gets a call for the eleventh overall and it's a solid offer. What exactly is the offer?

My opinion is that it's Tampa who needs to reserve some cap space by trading away RFA Kucherov.

They aren't trading Kucherov. They will likely let Stamkos walk before they do that, IMO.

For #11, I personally would consider Hoffman, Drouin, RNH, and Eberle (a little iffy on this one). I don't see who else would realistically be up for trade that would make sense.

 

[RSeen]

Let's say, completely hypothetically, Shero gets a call for the eleventh overall and it's a solid offer. What exactly is the offer?

My opinion is that it's Tampa who needs to reserve some cap space by trading away RFA Kucherov.

Lol Tampa isn't trading Kucherov and it would take a lot more than the 11th pick.

 

[RSeen]

They aren't trading Kucherov. They will likely let Stamkos walk before they do that, IMO.

For #11, I personally would consider Hoffman, Drouin, RNH, and Eberle (a little iffy on this one). I don't see who else would realistically be up for trade that would make sense.

Drouin and RNH would definitely cost more and I can't see either team taking a pick for their players. Even Eberle I think they would want defense.

 

[Devils Army]

Drouin and RNH would definitely cost more and I can't see either team taking a pick for their players. Even Eberle I think they would want defense.

I think Ottawa would take that for Hoffman in a heartbeat

 

[devilsblood]

That 3rd line would be 100k times better than ANY 3rd line configuration we had all season long this past year.

I was scared to write it before but since he and Zacha are doing work tonight for Albany:

Elias Zacha Lappin.

If we can a vet RW for top 6, DSP down to the 4th, if not then find out if DSP can handle top 6 duties over the coarse of a full year.

 

[GeNeXt]

I was scared to write it before but since he and Zacha are doing work tonight for Albany:

Elias Zacha Lappin.

If we can a vet RW for top 6, DSP down to the 4th, if not then find out if DSP can handle top 6 duties over the coarse of a full year.

I think the 3rd line is a fine spot for DSP. If we push him to the fourth, you likely get the production that MTL got out of him, and why they traded him. Elias-Zacha-DSP seemed to work fine in the last game of the season. Rather see that, and have Lappin start in Albany, if he can;t make the team out of camp. If DSP struggles, then I'd call up Lappin and use him on that line.

 

[devilsblood]

Drouin and RNH would definitely cost more and I can't see either team taking a pick for their players. Even Eberle I think they would want defense.

Who knows what them guys are thinking up there, but if I'm Edm I am not trading these young guys for picks. I want ready now guys, a Zajac type would be a great fit.

Or as you say really solid vet d-man.

I'd take back less in talent in order to get good solid proven vet's in that 27-31 yr old age bracket.

 

[devilsblood]

I think the 3rd line is a fine spot for DSP. If we push him to the fourth, you likely get the production that MTL got out of him, and why they traded him. Elias-Zacha-DSP seemed to work fine in the last game of the season. Rather see that, and have Lappin start in Albany, if he can;t make the team out of camp. If DSP struggles, then I'd call up Lappin and use him on that line.

I'm a bit reluctant to bury DSP as well. But the idea of a really solid looking 4th line of Pietila, Kalinin, DSP, which sits behind an exciting 3rd line of Elias Zacha Lappin is pretty enticing.

And there would surely be oppurtunities for DSP to play up a line or two throughout the year as well as finding some PP minutes.

And I'm pretty bullish on Lappin in the NHL next year. He turns 24 in Nov. he's played really well in his short stint in Albany, there is a gaping hole at RW in NJ, let's have at it.