Proposal: NJ - DET draft pick swap

[majormajor]

It definitely is nothing. Everyone knows Detroit is going to finish dead last next season. The odd of NJ moving up above Detroit are low. Detroit is not going to move down 3 picks for some lame chance.

I'm not recommending this trade but it's clear that you don't have a good sense of the odds of NJ picking ahead of Detroit next year. Far higher than zero, closer to 30%. Three teams with better records just passed Detroit in the 2020 lottery, and two teams passed Detroit the year prior. If you think Detroit is a lock for #1OA in 2021 then you are the most optimistic Wings fan on the boards.

 

[Blackjack]

Didn't historically bad Avs make playoffs the year after they were historically bad? 3-4 smart signings and I could easily see Detroit being better than New Jersey.

MacKinnon went from a 50 point player to a 100 point player, Rantanen went from a 40 point player to an 85 point player. There is no one on Detroit's roster with that kind of upside. I agree that Detroit could be better than expected this year, but Colorado is not a precedent.

 

[Tetsuo]

I'm not recommending this trade but it's clear that you don't have a good sense of the odds of NJ picking ahead of Detroit next year. Far higher than zero, closer to 30%. Three teams with better records just passed Detroit in the 2020 lottery, and two teams passed Detroit the year prior. If you think Detroit is a lock for #1OA in 2021 then you are the most optimistic Wings fan on the boards.

But the odds that a given team picks above another team are low. This is a crazy gimmick and likely won't result in Det gaining anything unless more is offered.

@OP The only way this makes sense is if we get picks swaps the next three years and get a 2nd each of the years we don't swap. Otherwise 4 for 7 and 20 is the price to move up and grab Drysdale NJ would have to pay.

 

[hidek91]

MacKinnon went from a 50 point player to a 100 point player, Rantanen went from a 40 point player to an 85 point player. There is no one on Detroit's roster with that kind of upside. I agree that Detroit could be better than expected this year, but Colorado is not a precedent.

Larkin/Bertuzzi/Mantha? UFA goalie getting .920 SV%? Their #4 OA pick turning into star instantly? Good UFA signings? I'm not saying it's likely that they become playoff team but I think it's possible and some posters make it seem like it's guaranteed they're dead last net year. Too much volatility in NHL.

 

[hidek91]

But the odds that a given team picks above another team are low. This is a crazy gimmick and likely won't result in Det gaining anything unless more is offered.

@OP The only way this makes sense is if we get picks swaps the next three years and get a 2nd each of the years we don't swap. Otherwise 4 for 7 and 20 is the price to move up and grab Drysdale NJ would have to pay.

Drysdale may very well be available at #7. If not, Sanderson, Rossi, Perfetti and Raymond fill the needs for us as well. Would do the 7+20 for 3 though, if Stutzle was on board at that point.

Also pick swaps for 3 years is crazy. Do you realize that it gives you very high possibility of getting one or more of top 3 picks even though you don't win lottery? You seem to really underrate the value of the pick swap option between lottery teams.

 

[Go Wings]

Didn't historically bad Avs make playoffs the year after they were historically bad? 3-4 smart signings and I could easily see Detroit being better than New Jersey.

Are you on drugs? Seriously are you? The Wings were God awful this year and even if they sign Krug and get a goalie they are still going to be awful and worse than NJ.

 

[Go Wings]

I'm not recommending this trade but it's clear that you don't have a good sense of the odds of NJ picking ahead of Detroit next year. Far higher than zero, closer to 30%. Three teams with better records just passed Detroit in the 2020 lottery, and two teams passed Detroit the year prior. If you think Detroit is a lock for #1OA in 2021 then you are the most optimistic Wings fan on the boards.

Detroit isn't a lock for anything except to finish dead last. So we are moving down from 4 to 7 for a possible 30% chance? That is braindead stupid.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Because I'm curious what others think.

To answer second question, the rationale would be, if they have some of the Perfetti/Holtz/Sanderson/Drysdale/Rossi/Raymond group in the same tier, this year swap doesn't matter. And in the next year NJ can be worse than them or win one of the lotteries.

There's a very good chance were the worst team in the league again next season.

Definitely wouldn't do it as it seems like we're just dropping spots for no reason

 

[Tetsuo]

Drysdale may very well be available at #7. If not, Sanderson, Rossi, Perfetti and Raymond fill the needs for us as well. Would do the 7+20 for 3 though, if Stutzle was on board at that point.

Also pick swaps for 3 years is crazy. Do you realize that it gives you very high possibility of getting one or more of top 3 picks even though you don't win lottery? You seem to really underrate the value of the pick swap option between lottery teams.

I think you seriously overrate pick swaps when NJ is projecting to only be a lottery team for the next season maybe two. Detroit will be a very bad team and be near or at the bottom of the league for the next two years at least.

So how about this: DET can swap with NJ in either the 2021 or the 2022 1st rounds. If no picks are swapped, DET receives an unconditional 2023 1st.

 

[Halla]

this is kinda real bad for detroit. they are gonna be worse. this is crossing their fingers that NJ get lucky in the draft lottery


not worth it

 

[Halla]

IMO, the right to swap picks next year (especially with bad team like NJ) is worth more than 2nd round pick this year. Sure, it may be useless if DET pick turns to be earlier next year but also some players selected in 2nd round become worthless if they don't make it to NHL.

And for example, if Detroit had that option:
- in 2017, they swap #9 for #1,
- in 2018, they wouldn't do it,
- in 2019, they swap #6 for #1.

The potential very high reward is there.

Detroit wasnt expansion level bad then

they were the worst team by a mile this year and will be again. so at the end of the day they give up pick4 for for pick 7 and then likely get nothing else

 

[Hen Kolland]

The only way this works is if there is a major contingency added.

Detroit gives up 4 for 7. If NJ finishes with an earlier pick in the 2021 first round, Detroit can swap firsts, otherwise Detroit acquires various assets including other 2021 draft capital/future draft capital/prospects.

And while I try to assist in rationalizing someone else's half-baked proposal, there I still don't feel strongly enough in what must equate to a fraction of a reasonable likelihood that NJ finishes above Detroit in the 2021 draft to be interested in the deal.

Not to mention, while people will argue that the talent depth extends to 8-9-10th overall, it's likely that Detroit's tiers stop well before that in terms of players they are eyeing at #4 overall, so it isn't a deal that comes at no cost. Tiers are smaller, and even within tiers, teams still have have favorite players within those tiers that you would likely be passing on to do this. So what is Detroit's worst case scenario as it is right now? Probably picking #4 overall two consecutive years. What is this proposal's worst case scenario? Picking #7 and #4 and adding nothing? I'll take the first option.

 

[Blackjack]

And while I try to assist in rationalizing someone else's half-baked proposal, there I still don't feel strongly enough in what must equate to a fraction of a reasonable likelihood that NJ finishes above Detroit in the 2021 draft to be interested in the deal.

Again, I understand if Detroit fans are not interested in this, I certainly didn't propose it. But the point of the trade from Detroit's perspective is essentially to get NJ's bingo balls. The only thing they need for it to work out is for NJ to miss the playoffs.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Again, I understand if Detroit fans are not interested in this, I certainly didn't propose it. But the point of the trade from Detroit's perspective is essentially to get NJ's bingo balls. The only thing they need for it to work out is for NJ to miss the playoffs.

If nothing tangible exchanges hands because NJ doesn’t win the lottery, then the deal was passing on your hypothetical 4th best player in 2020.

There needs to be something tangible that actually exchanges hands regardless of the outcome. Hope is not tangible.

That’s the point I am making.

You wouldn’t give me $500 for a scratch off lottery ticket that has a chance of winning $2500 if I wasn’t going to offer some form of insurance for the likely scenario that you don’t win.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

This is still open? This is plain crap for Detroit on the OP noway in a million years we'd consider that offer.

 

[Blackjack]

If nothing tangible exchanges hands because NJ doesn’t win the lottery, then the deal was passing on your hypothetical 4th best player in 2020.

There needs to be something tangible that actually exchanges hands regardless of the outcome. Hope is not tangible.

That’s the point I am making.

You wouldn’t give me $500 for a scratch off lottery ticket that has a chance of winning $2500 if I wasn’t going to offer some form of insurance for the likely scenario that you don’t win.

Fair enough. I'd probably not do it if the situations were reversed as I'm really hoping for Rossi but I don't think he'll be there at 7. Just out of curiosity, who does your board think Yzerman is looking at at #4?

 

[Hen Kolland]

Fair enough. I'd probably not do it if the situations were reversed as I'm really hoping for Rossi but I don't think he'll be there at 7. Just out of curiosity, who does your board think Yzerman is looking at at #4?

It's pretty divided. I think there are 5 names that various people have various levels of adoring opinions towards. Raymond, Perfetti, Rossi, Drysdale, and Sanderson. Honorable mention to the wild card Askarov.

The 3 names that I feel are most likely to be on the short list, it would be Perfetti, Raymond, and Drysdale. What I am trying to say is that I have no idea. But, if you wanted me to pick my best guess, I think Perfetti is the leader in the clubhouse based on everything I've seen and heard.

 

[hidek91]

Was fun to read this thread with the benefit of hindsight after the 2021 lottery.

This "awful" deal for Detroit would end up being:
#4 (2020) + #6 (2021) for #7 (2020) + #4 (2021)

The net loss for Detroit would be one spot but when you take pre-draft tiers into account (especially the fact that Raymond/Holtz/Drysdale/Sanderson/Rossi was perceived as a lower tier than Byfield/Stutzle), it ended up being insanely close. And Detroit who was supposed to be the worst team in NHL was actually 5th worst (while NJ was even worse).

I think that people underestimate the value of having a 1st round pick swap with a very bad team (in this case Jersey).