Proposal: NJ - DET draft pick swap

[HisNoodliness]

Honestly I'm going to disagree with others here. If I'm on the clock at 4 and 1, 2 and 3 are Laf, Byfield and Stutzle, I'd go ahead and do this. I'd take whoever is left of Drysdale, Raymond, Perfetti and Rossi at 7.

Sure the Wings are likely to be worse than NJ next year, but I have every expectation that New Jersey will be in the lottery, so it just increases our odds at the top 3 pick we so desperately need.

Of course if you think that there is huge separation between your 4th and 7th prospect you don't do this. For me, they're close enough that I'm comfortable doing this for another 20% chance at winning one of next year's top 3.

 

[majormajor]

There is precedent for pick swaps at the top of the draft. I don't like that people are so instantly critical of new ideas.

Honestly I'm going to disagree with others here. If I'm on the clock at 4 and 1, 2 and 3 are Laf, Byfield and Stutzle, I'd go ahead and do this. I'd take whoever is left of Drysdale, Raymond, Perfetti and Rossi at 7.

Sure the Wings are likely to be worse than NJ next year, but I have every expectation that New Jersey will be in the lottery, so it just increases our odds at the top 3 pick we so desperately need.

Of course if you think that there is huge separation between your 4th and 7th prospect you don't do this. For me, they're close enough that I'm comfortable doing this for another 20% chance at winning one of next year's top 3.

Right, NJ doesn't have to be worse than Detroit to get the better draft position. This is really just lottery insurance for the Wings.

 

[Debrincat93]

this makes absolutely no sense for the wings. pass.

 

[njx9]

I don't like that people are so instantly critical of new ideas.

No one's critical of the idea. The criticism is for this particular trade. Come on.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

There is precedent for pick swaps at the top of the draft. I don't like that people are so instantly critical of new ideas.

This isn't a new idea.

 

[majormajor]

This isn't a new idea.

New idea to many of the negative posters in the thread.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

New idea to many of the negative posters in the thread.

Bad idea =/= new idea. Detroit was one of the worst teams in history this year. If there were any indication they could finish close to NJD next year, this would make sense. As it stands, we're just trading our pick of the litter for slightly better lottery odds next year.

It hasn't happened in 20 years because the last time it did, it wasn't exercised.

 

[majormajor]

Bad idea =/= new idea. Detroit was one of the worst teams in history this year. If there were any indication they could finish close to NJD next year, this would make sense. As it stands, we're just trading our pick of the litter for slightly better lottery odds next year.

It hasn't happened in 20 years because the last time it did, it wasn't exercised.

If you think your pick of the litter is still going to be there at #7 then it makes some sense. Detroit will almost certainly be worse than New Jersey but don't forget about the lottery.

 

[SirloinUB]

This is bad for Detroit. Maybe if there was at least a conditional pick going Detroit’s way In the event they don’t swap picks.

in this proposal there is a high probability that Detroit moves down and gets nothing for it.

Not only is it bad asset management but it’s just a bad bet.

garbage proposal that goes absolutely no where

 

[hidek91]

I think that what a lot of people are missing in my idea is that:
1) The lottery exists. DET can finish last and still get worse pick than NJ.
2) DET sucks atm but so does New Jersey. The d-men we have signed for next season are Severson, Butcher, Carrick and Subban, it's absolutely awful atm, our forwards group is young and doesn't produce that well yet (not to mention that we've lost Hall as well). Oh, and let's not forget that our new head coach is Lindy Ruff.
3) People "accuse" NJ of benefitting from moving up but could you precisely tell us who would we get at #4 (assuming Byf, Laf and Stutzle are gone) that we couldn't at #7? Even if you don't include Sanderson in this tier, one of Raymond, Perfetti, Rossi or Drysdale should still be there. All of which are realistic options at #4 as well. If the swap was #7 for #3, I'd agree that NJ gets a tangible upgrade but this?

To be honest with you, if I'm NJD last year and NYR offered the same offer last year (#1 for #2 + swap option next year), I'd take it (without ofc knowing that NYR wins lottery this year but it's not important here) because Hughes and Kakko were perceived as the same tier of prospects. I'd also take the trade with PHI in 2017 (because Hischier and Patrick were perceived as same category). In hindsight this would be awful but when it comes to value at the draft day, it'd have been good.

 

[hidek91]

Absolutely we can switch picks. You give Detroit Ty Smith and the 7th overall pick and you can have the 4th overall pick.

No? Well then f*** off cause we aren't trading the pick for nothing.

The option to swap picks in 2021 isn't "nothing".

Would you trade to other team (that is lottery projected as well) the possibility of swap 1st rounders in 2021 with DET for nothing? Come on.

 

[TGWL]

Unless somebody has a crystal ball and NJD are winning the lotto next season, Wings laugh this one off.

 

[TGWL]

The option to swap picks in 2021 isn't "nothing".

Would you trade to other team (that is lottery projected as well) the possibility of swap 1st rounders in 2021 with DET for nothing? Come on.

The trade is based on having 2 chances at the lotto. Give up a top 5 prospect after years of rebuilding to potentially have another top 3 shot next year.. Come on. No team rebuilding team does that.

 

[njx9]

The option to swap picks in 2021 isn't "nothing".

It is almost certainly nothing. The odds of this benefiting Detroit at all are next to nothing, and those odds are in a bad draft year.

Would you trade to other team (that is lottery projected as well) the possibility of swap 1st rounders in 2021 with DET for nothing? Come on.

What are you even asking? If the Wings would offer a pick swap for nothing in return? That's an impressively dumb question.

 

[Go Wings]

The option to swap picks in 2021 isn't "nothing".

Would you trade to other team (that is lottery projected as well) the possibility of swap 1st rounders in 2021 with DET for nothing? Come on.

It definitely is nothing. Everyone knows Detroit is going to finish dead last next season. The odd of NJ moving up above Detroit are low. Detroit is not going to move down 3 picks for some lame chance.

 

[Syckle78]

Honestly I'm going to disagree with others here. If I'm on the clock at 4 and 1, 2 and 3 are Laf, Byfield and Stutzle, I'd go ahead and do this. I'd take whoever is left of Drysdale, Raymond, Perfetti and Rossi at 7.

Sure the Wings are likely to be worse than NJ next year, but I have every expectation that New Jersey will be in the lottery, so it just increases our odds at the top 3 pick we so desperately need.

Of course if you think that there is huge separation between your 4th and 7th prospect you don't do this. For me, they're close enough that I'm comfortable doing this for another 20% chance at winning one of next year's top 3.

Or you know you could move down for actual value. This is beyond f***ing stupid.

 

[Syckle78]

There is precedent for pick swaps at the top of the draft. I don't like that people are so instantly critical of new ideas.



Right, NJ doesn't have to be worse than Detroit to get the better draft position. This is really just lottery insurance for the Wings.

Here's a new idea you trade us your first for next year if you end up worse than us we will give you it back plus ours if not we keep yours and celebrate the magic of new ideas.

 

[Blackjack]

The trade is based on having 2 chances at the lotto. Give up a top 5 prospect after years of rebuilding to potentially have another top 3 shot next year.. Come on. No team rebuilding team does that.

"Top 5 prospect" is a meaningless distinction meant to capture the #4 pick and exclude the #7 pick. The top of the draft is stratified into a consensus #1, and near-consensus #2 and #3 picks, after that the rankings and mocks start to vary quite a bit. I understand the idea behind the trade, but I also understand the disinterest of Wings fans.

The last few draft lotteries have been very good to the Rangers and Devils, and the flip side is that some clubs like Ottawa and Detroit have gotten absolutely screwed. Given that, I kind of understand how a proposal like this coming from a Devils fan would hit a bit of a raw nerve.

 

[SirloinUB]

I think that what a lot of people are missing in my idea is that:
1) The lottery exists. DET can finish last and still get worse pick than NJ.
2) DET sucks atm but so does New Jersey. The d-men we have signed for next season are Severson, Butcher, Carrick and Subban, it's absolutely awful atm, our forwards group is young and doesn't produce that well yet (not to mention that we've lost Hall as well). Oh, and let's not forget that our new head coach is Lindy Ruff.
3) People "accuse" NJ of benefitting from moving up but could you precisely tell us who would we get at #4 (assuming Byf, Laf and Stutzle are gone) that we couldn't at #7? Even if you don't include Sanderson in this tier, one of Raymond, Perfetti, Rossi or Drysdale should still be there. All of which are realistic options at #4 as well. If the swap was #7 for #3, I'd agree that NJ gets a tangible upgrade but this?

The odds of NJ getting a better pick than Detroit in 2021 is low. Low enough that this is a bad bet at the cost of moving down 3 spots. There is a high probability that Detroit moves down 3 spots and gets nothing for it with this proposal.

You can continue to rationalize this how you want but Detroit doesn’t touch this. If you want to move up 3 spots, you will have to offer something of real value.

 

[Henkka]

Pretty much it could work:

DET 1st (4th overall)
DET 2nd
<>
NJD 1st (7th overall)
ARI 1st

 

[hidek91]

The trade is based on having 2 chances at the lotto. Give up a top 5 prospect after years of rebuilding to potentially have another top 3 shot next year.. Come on. No team rebuilding team does that.

In a vacuum you're right but in reality after excluding Byfield, Stutzle and Lafreniere who do you consider top 5 picks? The next tier, according to the consensus, is made of Drysdale, Rossi, Raymond and Perfetti (and I'd even add Sanderson to this list). In terms of "hype" of the prospect DET and NJD will pick similar level of the player despite the 3 spots of different.

 

[hidek91]

It definitely is nothing. Everyone knows Detroit is going to finish dead last next season. The odd of NJ moving up above Detroit are low. Detroit is not going to move down 3 picks for some lame chance.

Didn't historically bad Avs make playoffs the year after they were historically bad? 3-4 smart signings and I could easily see Detroit being better than New Jersey.

 

[hidek91]

Pretty much it could work:

DET 1st (4th overall)
DET 2nd
<>
NJD 1st (7th overall)
ARI 1st

Why would NJD do this?

DET and NJD 1st both allow you to pick one of Rossi, Perfetti, Drysdale, Sanderson, Raymond.
ARI 1st allows you to realistically pick Zary, Jarvis, Mercer, Schneider, Guhle tier, while DET 2nd doesn't.

At this point, it's not about place of the draft but what prospect do you get.

 

[hidek91]

Here's a new idea you trade us your first for next year if you end up worse than us we will give you it back plus ours if not we keep yours and celebrate the magic of new ideas.

If this trade actually went through, it would be in both teams' interest to lose all games and score own goals in DET - NJ games

 

[majormajor]

Here's a new idea you trade us your first for next year if you end up worse than us we will give you it back plus ours if not we keep yours and celebrate the magic of new ideas.

Wow you are taking this personally. I'm independent here, not a Devils fan.