Player Discussion: Nikolaj Ehlers

[Whileee]

Ehlers is great at regular season hockey.

If all you consider is point production then you would come to the simplistic conclusion that Ehlers has been ineffective in the playoffs. However, if you recognize that scoring rates in relatively small samples are erratic and focus on a range of other metrics of effectiveness, then Ehlers has performed well in playoffs... based on on-ice shot metrics, goal differentials, penalty differentials.

The Jets outplayed and outscored the opposition when Ehlers was on the ice over the past two playoff seasons.

 

[Whileee]

Which line is better for a team's success...

Line A: scores 14 goals, gives up 14 goals.
Line B: scores 9 goals, gives up 7 goals.

 

[JetsFan815]

Ehlers is not getting moved for Noah f***ing Juulsen. Even if he is moved (and that's a big if)- Leafs were offered Pieterangelo and Pesce in trade that they turned down. Ehlers statistically is almost identical to slightly better than Nylander, his overall impact is better than Nylander due to his elite penalty differential and has a team friendly contract. There is no way the Jets would accept anything less than what the market was offering for Nylander which is an established top-3 d-man.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Which line is better for a team's success...

Line A: scores 14 goals, gives up 14 goals.
Line B: scores 9 goals, gives up 7 goals.

Looks a lot like the +/- stat.

 

[Whileee]

Looks a lot like the +/- stat.

5v5, is what I meant. That's different.

Point is that Ehlers' line outscored their opposition at even strength over the past two playoffs, which isn't something that could be said of Connor.

 

[voyageur]

Looks a lot like the +/- stat.

If we used that stat, which is measure of goals for and goals against with said player on the ice, instead of shots, without measuring their quality, we would find Nik Ehlers at 7 assists in 21 games, and +2 in the playoffs, though Paul Stastny deserves the credit for the +, in a lot of the cases . Contrast Bryan Little, who many say has to go, with 2 goals 7 assists, +6, in 23 playoff games in the last two years (excluding 1st year of playoffs because Ladd-Little-Frolik were owned), or Roslovic, with 3 assists and a +5, with a fraction of the ice time, in 16 playoff games. Kyle Connor, on the other hand, has 6 goals, 9 assists, and a +1 in 23 playoff games. But Ehlers is clearly the most dominant player?

 

[Gabe Kupari]

If u wanna use plus minus Ehlers has been on the ice for 5 goals against. Connor on for 14 goals against. Stastny is overrated round these parts. Most his playoff points were pp points .

 

[Tommigun]

5v5, is what I meant. That's different.

Point is that Ehlers' line outscored their opposition at even strength over the past two playoffs, which isn't something that could be said of Connor.

Why is it different? +/- doesn’t take poweplay goals for or short handed goals against into account.

 

[Whileee]

Why is it different? +/- doesn’t take poweplay goals for or short handed goals against into account.

+/- gives a minus for shorthanded goals against, but not PP goals for, and SH goals for but not PP against. So players on the PK are at an advantage over players on the PP.

 

[Nordiques1979]

Ehlers is not getting moved for Noah ****ing Juulsen. Even if he is moved (and that's a big if)- Leafs were offered Pieterangelo and Pesce in trade that they turned down. Ehlers statistically is almost identical to slightly better than Nylander, his overall impact is better than Nylander due to his elite penalty differential and has a team friendly contract. There is no way the Jets would accept anything less than what the market was offering for Nylander which is an established top-3 d-man.

I love Ehlers, but don't underestimate Juulsen, if he would have been healthy this season, the view on him would be different.

As for the comparison between Nylander and Ehlers it's legit for me.

 

[voyageur]

I love Ehlers, but don't underestimate Juulsen, if he would have been healthy this season, the view on him would be different.

As for the comparison between Nylander and Ehlers it's legit for me.

I actually see a lot of similarities between Juulsen and Trouba. Trouba is a better skater and passer, Juulsen might turn out to be a better defender. But his eye injury seems serious. He would be a risk, and I don't think the Jets will give up on Ehlers this offseason. He has the potential to explode offensively with physical maturity.

 

[JetsFan815]

I love Ehlers, but don't underestimate Juulsen, if he would have been healthy this season, the view on him would be different.

Juulsen had the worst Expected Goal differential rate on MTL at -.39 per 60 of all MTL d-men. Every other d man on the Habs is positive or atleast breaking even in this metric. He is not in the conversation as a key piece for a proven and established player.

 

[Nordiques1979]

I actually see a lot of similarities between Juulsen and Trouba. Trouba is a better skater and passer, Juulsen might turn out to be a better defender. But his eye injury seems serious. He would be a risk, and I don't think the Jets will give up on Ehlers this offseason. He has the potential to explode offensively with physical maturity.

He's been cleared to play and full healthy. But anyway I understand the fear when it comes to Juulsen. Next season will be very important for him.

Curious to see what's gonna happen to Ehlers.

 

[Ukkosenjumala]

5v5, is what I meant. That's different.

Point is that Ehlers' line outscored their opposition at even strength over the past two playoffs, which isn't something that could be said of Connor.

I like Ehlers but even if Ehlers's line outscored the opposition, he didn't score any of them himself. He didn't even have any points this post season so what did he really do to outscore the opposition. Granted, he didn't get a whole lot of ice time. Looking at his stats, his CF%, expected goals for etc go down quite a bit without Little too. Kevin Hayes on the other hand doesn't seem to be better or worse off with or without Ehlers.

 

[Tommigun]

+/- gives a minus for shorthanded goals against, but not PP goals for, and SH goals for but not PP against. So players on the PK are at an advantage over players on the PP.

It’s a rare occurrence to score a short handed goal, and if you let one in against you you should be penalized with a minus.

 

[LowLefty]

If all you consider is point production then you would come to the simplistic conclusion that Ehlers has been ineffective in the playoffs. However, if you recognize that scoring rates in relatively small samples are erratic and focus on a range of other metrics of effectiveness, then Ehlers has performed well in playoffs... based on on-ice shot metrics, goal differentials, penalty differentials.

The Jets outplayed and outscored the opposition when Ehlers was on the ice over the past two playoff seasons.

I agree with this but -
Don't be too surprised fans are using point production as the major measuring point-
We have other, higher profile players, that are pretty much measured mainly on points or goals while other lesser aspects, are ignored or downplayed.
Regardless - I'm not concerned about Ehlers point product reg or PP - he's too talented for that to drag on

 

[Whileee]

It’s a rare occurrence to score a short handed goal, and if you let one in against you you should be penalized with a minus.

Sorry, I'm not going to spend more time debating +/-. It's not a reliable measure of a player's performance.

 

[TS Quint]

Sorry, I'm not going to spend more time debating +/-. It's not a reliable measure of a player's performance.

"The Jets outplayed and outscored the opposition when Ehlers was on the ice over the past two playoff seasons."

I guess +/- means more when it works to your own narrative.

 

[MardyBum]

Google "Why +/-"

Enjoy.

 

[Duke749]

"The Jets outplayed and outscored the opposition when Ehlers was on the ice over the past two playoff seasons."

I guess +/- means more when it works to your own narrative.

 

[GNP]

All I can say, is that trading Ehlers who could turn out to be a 70-80 point scorer, on a real team friendly contract is outright foolish, unless the "return" is extremely one sided in our favor.

Ehers and Connor, are the type of guys you build a future championship team on, and you don't trade either of them.

 

[Whileee]

"The Jets outplayed and outscored the opposition when Ehlers was on the ice over the past two playoff seasons."

I guess +/- means more when it works to your own narrative.

I was using 5v5 stats, which isn't the same as the standard +/-. The difference is easy to understand, if you want to.

 

[Teemusalami204]

Let's hope his minutes don't drop for a 3rd straight year.

 

[QuietContrarian]

Ehlers will never hit his full potential as a Jet in the current setup.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Ehlers will never hit his full potential as a Jet in the current setup.

We have tremendous talent on this team who will never hit their potential as a jet without changes. It’s frustrating.