Speculation: Nightmare Scenario

[stokes84]

The nightmare scenario plays out. Carolina beats us to the bottom and a third team wins the lottery. What is Murray's move?

Looking at what we have, what are we doing about 1C? Reinhart is a few years off. Is Grigorenko ready for it? We can't go another year with Ennis manning that spot.

So what is the play? Do we package the 3 pick with a big piece (Reinhart? Risto?) To try to move up? Do we stand pat and eat it? Do we move for an established center? Thoughts?

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[Jame]

The nightmare scenario plays out. Carolina beats us to the bottom and a third team wins the lottery. What is Murray's move?

Looking at what we have, what are we doing about 1C? Reinhart is a few years off. Is Grigorenko ready for it? We can't go another year with Ennis manning that spot.

So what is the play? Do we package the 3 pick with a big piece (Reinhart? Risto?) To try to move up? Do we stand pat and eat it? Do we move for an established center? Thoughts?

We draft Hanifin or Kylington, and keep building.

Reinhart is not a few years off

There is no moving up into the top of this draft... nobody is trading out of those spots.

If the nightmare scenario plays out... we should simply overpay for a veteran center as a top gap (overpay in salary or in trade assets) to the development of our great stable of centers.

 

[Paxon]

The nightmare scenario plays out. Carolina beats us to the bottom and a third team wins the lottery. What is Murray's move?

Looking at what we have, what are we doing about 1C? Reinhart is a few years off. Is Grigorenko ready for it? We can't go another year with Ennis manning that spot.

So what is the play? Do we package the 3 pick with a big piece (Reinhart? Risto?) To try to move up? Do we stand pat and eat it? Do we move for an established center? Thoughts?

If we draft third we take the best player, who should be Noah Hanifin in my book. Sign or trade for one or two decent veteran centers and stake our future down the middle on Reinhart, Grigorenko, Girgensons, Larsson, Compher, etc + whoever we draft with the other 1sts.

Or they take the next-available center who will probably be as good as Reinhart. It's not really a nightmare scenario in my mind.

 

[Jame]

If we draft third we take the best player, who should be Noah Hanifin in my book. Sign or trade for one or two decent veteran centers and stake our future down the middle on Reinhart, Grigorenko, Girgensons, Larsson, Compher, etc + whoever we draft with the other 1sts.

Or they take the next-available center who will probably be as good as Reinhart at worst. It's not really a nightmare scenario in my mind.

I dont think Barzal, Strome, or Konecny are as good as Reinhart.... (not that i would be opposed to drafting them in the 5 - 10 range....)

 

[TehDoak]

The nightmare scenario plays out. Carolina beats us to the bottom and a third team wins the lottery. What is Murray's move?

Looking at what we have, what are we doing about 1C? Reinhart is a few years off. Is Grigorenko ready for it? We can't go another year with Ennis manning that spot.

So what is the play? Do we package the 3 pick with a big piece (Reinhart? Risto?) To try to move up? Do we stand pat and eat it? Do we move for an established center? Thoughts?

Not really a nightmare scenario. In that scenario we get Hanafin, have

Hanafin-Myers
Zadorov-Ristoleinen
McCabe-Pysyk

As our future D. All of our prospects are a year closer to being contributors at the NHL level. We have Reinhart, Grigerenko, Girgensons as center prospects. We have Compher, Armia, Fasching, Baptiste, Lemiuex, and Bailey on the wings.

Getting Eichel or McDavid would be great. But not getting them doesn't derail the rebuild. Don't forget the other 2 1st rounders we have in that draft. Getzlaf dropped into the teens.

Hockey is a team game. You need a strong GROUP of players to win a championship. We have a strong group, and it will get bigger after this draft. One player doesn't win you championships.

 

[Zman5778]

If that nightmare scenario unfolds, then I think we take Hanifin and hitch our hopes that Reinhart/Grigorenko/Girgensons form some form of 1-2-3 punch down the middle in another 2 years.

In the meantime, throw a bucketful of cash at a guy like Stoll to help fortify the center position and start trending this thing up.

Also, look into dealing one of the younger defensemen and using him to maybe obtain another youngish center.

 

[sjci]

The only real nightmare if that is Carolina getting one of McDavid/Eichel. **** Carolina.

 

[Paxon]

I dont think Barzal, Strome, or Konecny are as good as Reinhart.... (not that i would be opposed to drafting them in the 5 - 10 range....)

Already removed the "at worst" part because I don't believe that, but I do believe there's a good chance one's as good as Reinhart. Many WHL watchers thought Barzal was as good or better than RNH going into the season. Other than Strome pretty much all of the forwards are having slow starts though.

Still, as I've said all along I take Hanifin easily at that spot. I'd only entertain taking a center if someone really emerges from the pack, or Kylington if he closes the gap with Hanifin.

 

[Zman5778]

Getting Eichel or McDavid would be great. But not getting them doesn't derail the rebuild. Don't forget the other 2 1st rounders we have in that draft. Getzlaf dropped into the teens.
You need a strong GROUP of players to win a championship. We have a strong group, and it will get bigger after this draft. One player doesn't win you championships.

You're glossing over the fact that outside of the Bruins, every recent SC winning team has had that one go-to offensive weapon (Kopitar, Kane, Crosby, Datsyuk, Getzlaf, Staal). Right now, we don't have that sure-fire go-to offensive weapon prospect. Sure, MAYBE Reinhart develops into a guy like Toews. MAYBE Grigorenko develops into a guy like Kopitar. McEichel doesn't win us a Cup....but it gets us a heckuva lot closer.

And to your "Getzlaf fell into the teens" comment --- it's a rare occurence that a franchise-caliber guy falls outside the top 5 or 10. It happens maybe once or twice every 3-4 drafts. Something like that strikes me as more luck than quality scouting.

 

[MayDayMayDay]

It's early, but I think you're spot on in commanding preparation for just such a scenario.

Regardless of what happens at the Lotto, I think you have to get aggressive at the Draft. I would at least make a bid to move up into the top two. If you can't do it, no brainer that you take Hanifin. At that point, I think you gotta get bold. I might shuffle some surplus for a high end scorer (Yak, Voracek, E.Kane, etc.) and a bona fide Goalie (Niemi?).

 

[RobertR]

Yeah, I don't think world falls apart if we don't draft top2.

Teams who won the cup last 5 years, only one of those had top3 pick center - Toews. Boston and LA has Kopitar (11th overall), and Bergeron (2nd round), you can easily win a cup without Crosby like center.

 

[stokes84]

I'm sorry, but if we go through all of this and don't come away with a single GREAT player, blow my brains out please. Yeah, t doesn't have to be McDavid or Eichel, but it's hard to predict anyone else. Reinhart was the best forward in a draft without a great forward. Hanifin is a super prospect, but defensemen take longer and are harder to project. We will have bottomed out for two straight years and still be sitting on question marks. To me, this is a nightmare.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Patience, guys.

 

[ZeroPT*]

I'm sorry, but if we go through all of this and don't come away with a single GREAT player, blow my brains out please. Yeah, t doesn't have to be McDavid or Eichel, but it's hard to predict anyone else. Reinhart was the best forward in a draft without a great forward. Hanifin is a super prospect, but defensemen take longer and are harder to project. We will have bottomed out for two straight years and still be sitting on question marks. To me, this is a nightmare.

Hanafin is a great player. You're being way too dramatic.

 

[Jame]

Already removed the "at worst" part because I don't believe that, but I do believe there's a good chance one's as good as Reinhart. Many WHL watchers thought Barzal was as good or better than RNH going into the season. Other than Strome pretty much all of the forwards are having slow starts though.

Still, as I've said all along I take Hanifin easily at that spot. I'd only entertain taking a center if someone really emerges from the pack, or Kylington if he closes the gap with Hanifin.

you know how i feel about Kylington... at 3, given THIS scenario I'd lean towards Hanifin (im sure you can understand the difference between this scenario and the previous one where I'd take Kylington)

 

[Crazy Tasty]

I'm just hoping that with the Isles and Blues picks they target an offensive winger.
The current team can't score.
Looking at our pool, we have some great potential middle 6 wingers, but none with A+ offense.
If our first pick is D, we need some goal scoring wingers in the pipe, IMO,

 

[Jame]

I'm sorry, but if we go through all of this and don't come away with a single GREAT player, blow my brains out please. Yeah, t doesn't have to be McDavid or Eichel, but it's hard to predict anyone else. Reinhart was the best forward in a draft without a great forward. Hanifin is a super prospect, but defensemen take longer and are harder to project. We will have bottomed out for two straight years and still be sitting on question marks. To me, this is a nightmare.

wrong.

it would be so funny to watch you complain about how we went through all this and didn't get a great player... when in reality we got 2.



oh no, we didn't get Crosby... we only got Zetterberg and Doughty

 

[Zman5778]

you know how i feel about Kylington... at 3, given THIS scenario I'd lean towards Hanifin (im sure you can understand the difference between this scenario and the previous one where I'd take Kylington)

The other scenario being that we get 1/2 AND 3?

 

[Jame]

I'm just hoping that with the Isles and Blues picks they target an offensive winger.
The current team can't score.
Looking at our pool, we have some great potential middle 6 wingers, but none with A+ offense.
If our first pick is D, we need some goal scoring wingers in the pipe, IMO,

Paul Bittner is a total Murray mid round 1st...

 

[Jame]

The other scenario being that we get 1/2 AND 3?

yea, if we landed the elite center, id take Kylington over Hanifin, because i think it adds a totally different dimension to the roster.

but if we only had 3, Id take Hanifin

 

[Zman5778]

yea, if we landed the elite center, id take Kylington over Hanifin, because i think it adds a totally different dimension to the roster.

but if we only had 3, Id take Hanifin

I can understand that logic.

 

[stokes84]

It's early, but I think you're spot on in commanding preparation for just such a scenario.

Regardless of what happens at the Lotto, I think you have to get aggressive at the Draft. I would at least make a bid to move up into the top two. If you can't do it, no brainer that you take Hanifin. At that point, I think you gotta get bold. I might shuffle some surplus for a high end scorer (Yak, Voracek, E.Kane, etc.) and a bona fide Goalie (Niemi?).

Yeah, this is sort of where I'm at. Even if you can't convince someone to move from the top 2, it's time to start looking blockbuster trade.

 

[TehDoak]

You're glossing over the fact that outside of the Bruins, every recent SC winning team has had that one go-to offensive weapon (Kopitar, Kane, Crosby, Datsyuk, Getzlaf, Staal). Right now, we don't have that sure-fire go-to offensive weapon prospect. Sure, MAYBE Reinhart develops into a guy like Toews. MAYBE Grigorenko develops into a guy like Kopitar. McEichel doesn't win us a Cup....but it gets us a heckuva lot closer.

And to your "Getzlaf fell into the teens" comment --- it's a rare occurence that a franchise-caliber guy falls outside the top 5 or 10. It happens maybe once or twice every 3-4 drafts. Something like that strikes me as more luck than quality scouting.

In that group, you have 2 1st overalls (Kane, Crosby), 171st overall (Datsyuk), Kopitar (11th overall), Getzalf (19th overall), Staal (2nd overall).

Draft picks are educated guesses. The higher the pick, the lower the risk in theory. It's not an exact science. I'm on board with getting one of McDavid or Eichel. I'm also fine with moving forward wherever we land after the the season is over.

 

[Crazy Tasty]

Right now, we're looking at getting 4 of the top 30ish players in the 2015 draft.
I'm not considering that a nightmare scenario at all.

 

[MayDay]

We take BPA and continue to build.

Still, if we go through the suck of this season and don't manage to get McDavid OR Eichel, I can't help feeling that the season is a failure. That is the #1 objective of this season.