Rumor: NHL Talk 21/22: It's real, and it's spectacular

[Pavels Dog]

Hmm. I can buy that there's a chance Edvinsson is a better NHLer than Chychrun. I can't agree that Chychrun is overrated though, I think he's a pretty clear #1D. Really strong defensive metrics, which I think match the eye test in his case, alongside good point production. A blueline with both Chychrun and Seider in their primes would be a problem.

I don't think this trade will happen, but in terms of pure value for us I don't think it's a bad deal. In terms of long-term contract structure, timing, etc. maybe some would say it's too early for a move this big where we're spending heavy futures, but in terms of value-in value-out I don't think it's a bad deal.

Somehow Arizona manages to always be bad despite having such great players.

Sure, Chychrun has probably done enough to show he fell too far, that he has some more offensive upside than many thought (as long as he can shoot at 8-10%). But he's also never stayed healthy in an 82 game season (never even played over 70 games), he's usually a minus player, and what he did last season was mainly feasting on the bottom teams in a weak division (12 goals against LA/Ana/SJ, 6 goals against Vegas/STL/Min/COL).

 

[jkutswings]

Somehow Arizona manages to always be bad despite having such great players.

Sure, Chychrun has probably done enough to show he fell too far, that he has some more offensive upside than many thought (as long as he can shoot at 8-10%). But he's also never stayed healthy in an 82 game season (never even played over 70 games), he's usually a minus player, and what he did last season was mainly feasting on the bottom teams in a weak division (12 goals against LA/Ana/SJ, 6 goals against Vegas/STL/Min/COL).

I think it's a little of both. I mean, Eichel (if healthy) and Dahlin are definitely good players, even though Buffalo is a perpetual dumpster fire.

 

[Dotter]

AZI entertaining trade talks for Chychrun? Interesting.

 

[Frk It]

Chychrun has become really overrated. Edvinsson is probably one of the best skaters ever for his size. If he hits his ceiling - you're looking at a unicorn of a player. Think Chara, not Chychrun.

Amazing you still won’t budge from your opinion on this.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

KH was great for so many years don’t get me wrong but the last several were miserable and stink of desperation

Watching the Canes/Habs drama makes me appreciate that we have a competent and level headed front office again

 

[Pavels Dog]

Amazing you still won’t budge from your opinion on this.

He's exceeded what I thought he would do (whether it's sustainable or not remains to be seen) but I think it'd be insane to trade a talent like Edvinsson for him.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Somehow Arizona manages to always be bad despite having such great players.

Sure, Chychrun has probably done enough to show he fell too far, that he has some more offensive upside than many thought (as long as he can shoot at 8-10%). But he's also never stayed healthy in an 82 game season (never even played over 70 games), he's usually a minus player, and what he did last season was mainly feasting on the bottom teams in a weak division (12 goals against LA/Ana/SJ, 6 goals against Vegas/STL/Min/COL).

chychrun has been +3 the past 3 seasons 5on5. on a team that was -42 over the past 3 seasons 5on5. at ES he's been a slight minus but the team has been over -50. and the past 2 season he's been a + player at ES.

also let's assume he shot around 5% last year (or shoots from now on). that would've still been 33 points in 56 games, or just under 50 points in 82 game season. that's not more offensive upside than many thought?

 

[golffuul]

chychrun has been +3 the past 3 seasons 5on5. on a team that was -42 over the past 3 seasons 5on5.

also let's assume he shot around 5% last year (or shoots from now on). that would've still been 33 points in 56 games, or just under 50 points in 82 game season. that's not more offensive upside than many thought?

To be fair, this will be the more telling year for Chychrun, without having OEL there.

 

[InjuredChoker]

To be fair, this will be the more telling year for Chychrun, without having OEL there.

he passed OEL last year on the depth chart.

but i'd expect relative struggles as yotes are executing most blatant tank since the sabers of last decade and arguably even worse.

 

[golffuul]

he passed OEL last year on the depth chart.

but i'd expect relative struggles as yotes are executing most blatant tank since the sabers of last decade and arguably even worse.

It's not the depth chart that's the issue, it's the Tanev/Hughes effect. Even though Hughes was the "better player", sometimes having a stalwart on defense, beside you, allows you to look better than what you would have if they weren't there. So this year will be telling as to whether Chychrun needs someone of OEL's caliber to play with, in order to be as effective as he can be.

 

[InjuredChoker]

It's not the depth chart that's the issue, it's the Tanev/Hughes effect. Even though Hughes was the "better player", sometimes having a stalwart on defense, beside you, allows you to look better than what you would have if they weren't there. So this year will be telling as to whether Chychrun needs someone of OEL's caliber to play with, in order to be as effective as he can be.

true but OEL hasn't been stalwart on defense for a long time. as evidenced by jim benning trading for him.

 

[golffuul]

true but OEL hasn't been stalwart on defense for a long time. as evidenced by jim benning trading for him.

LOL...I can respect that. I am curious how he will do this year, regardless

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

It's not the depth chart that's the issue, it's the Tanev/Hughes effect. Even though Hughes was the "better player", sometimes having a stalwart on defense, beside you, allows you to look better than what you would have if they weren't there. So this year will be telling as to whether Chychrun needs someone of OEL's caliber to play with, in order to be as effective as he can be.

I think there's reason to believe that OEL might not be that player anymore.



I think the advanced statistics might exaggerate how poor his performance has been, but I think it's fair to conclude that Chychrun is the player pulling the cart there.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I'm not sure I could see us making a Chychrun deal happen without including Edvinsson. Would you do Edvinsson and our unprotected '23 1st?

On paper there's logic to it. Realistically, Chychrun is kind of Edvinsson's ceiling. You're essentially paying the '23 1st to expedite the develop time we'll have to put into Edvinsson and to eliminate the risk that he busts. A blue line of

Chychrun - Hronek
Leddy - Seider
Staal - Stetcher
Dekeyser - Lindstrom

is legitimately good imo, and pretty young. In this scenario you'd also keep the '22 1st, so we maintain our Shane Wright lotto ticket with a chance at Lambert/Savoie/Geekie/Cooley/etc. to try and fill the hole at 1C. We'd have plenty of cap space to try and fill out the forward talent.

Ultimately I don't see this happening, but whenever a young top pairing defenseman or first line forward potentially goes on the market I think it merits a discussion.

I don't know about that being his ceiling. I like Chychrun and think he's a legit number one defenseman, but in the lower tier of number one guys (17 to 32). I like Edvinsson and think he could also be a legit number one, but right now it's up in the air if he could be a legit number one in the upper tier or lower tier, or if he's just a good 2nd pair guy. I'm willing to gamble on Edvinsson's upside though.

One of the things I don't like about Chychrun is the history of injury. The dude already has a couple of knee surgeries on the books.

 

[Pavels Dog]

chychrun has been +3 the past 3 seasons 5on5. on a team that was -42 over the past 3 seasons 5on5. at ES he's been a slight minus but the team has been over -50. and the past 2 season he's been a + player at ES.

also let's assume he shot around 5% last year (or shoots from now on). that would've still been 33 points in 56 games, or just under 50 points in 82 game season. that's not more offensive upside than many thought?

The bulk of his scoring still came against Anaheim/San jose/LA (25 out of 41 points). I get that right now Edvinsson is more unknown and people don't know what he is. But early indications is that he will turn heads this season. I'll stick with what I still consider a higher upside (imo, in every area except goalscoring) player. Edvinsson looks like an absolute horse.

 

[golffuul]

The bulk of his scoring still came against Anaheim/San jose/LA (25 out of 41 points). I get that right now Edvinsson is more unknown and people don't know what he is. But early indications is that he will turn heads this season. I'll stick with what I still consider a higher upside (imo, in every area except goalscoring) player. Edvinsson looks like an absolute horse.

I think we also need to start looking at managing future contracts. If Seider works out as we all hope he will and Edvinsson continues on his trajectory we will need to have the ability for some cost certainty. Especially if our current forward prospects start panning out. These next 3-5 years are already going to be challenging enough to resign our entire roster. Chychrun's current contract takes him straight to UFA, while we still get at least 5 more years of Seider and Edvinsson at a reasonable hit. We are also better served not depleting our future depth for a quick fix. We're just now starting on our climb from the depths of the rebuild. No need to start trying to accelerate it. Chychrun won't win us many extra games, in the next year or two to cover the gap of years we would lose later on by not keeping Edvinsson and other futures.

 

[InjuredChoker]

The bulk of his scoring still came against Anaheim/San jose/LA (25 out of 41 points). I get that right now Edvinsson is more unknown and people don't know what he is. But early indications is that he will turn heads this season. I'll stick with what I still consider a higher upside (imo, in every area except goalscoring) player. Edvinsson looks like an absolute horse.

in general players score better against crappy teams. especially dman which are heavily reliant on forward scoring.

for the record, i know basically nothing about edvinsson and wasn't suggesting trading edvinsson for chychrun. in general i'd say chychrun > #6 overall but chychrun does have some real injury concerns and then there's the timeline/salary cap factor too. and yotes have zero reason to do that deal so it would need to be edvinsson +(+).

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

What? Montreal did the right thing. If KK gets 6.1, Suzuki is going to demand 9 million per season. You dont f*** up your team's payment structures for a 0.35 ppg guy who has shown no signs of development in 3 seasons.

Considering the follow up move for Christian Dvorak, who should thrive in a 2C role as oppose to playing as a 1C in Arizona half the time, Bergevin wins this whole scenario.

Dundon got clowned. Necas is going to rightfully demand substantial overpay next season now, especially since Carolina just established that they believe 6.1 for KK is justified.

Real talk, how in the hell did his nickname become KK? I'm assuming a lazy bastardization of Kotka which was the lazy bastardization of his full name Kotkaniemi. Why wouldn't he be JK though?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Didn't he keep showing up to training camp out of shape?

Yes, but that's because Dustin Penner is just a witch.



Eat them cakes, Dustin, eat them cakes.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

You're right, we shouldn't go off-topic. This is awful news and I completely missed this when it came out.

Why did he die? I did a quick search and couldn't find anything. He was just a kid, barely 30.

The only stuff I saw was just sad normal medical causes. Like heart stuff.

 

[izlez]

Real talk, how in the hell did his nickname become KK? I'm assuming a lazy bastardization of Kotka which was the lazy bastardization of his full name Kotkaniemi. Why wouldn't he be JK though?

For the last few years, my brain just skipped a step and went "yep, those are his initials". A week ago I saw this pointed out in a thread and now it really drives me crazy.

It's a little similar to Adrian Peterson being called AD. That one had a clear logical line to get there, but it was still super annoying

 

[PelagicJoe]

Somehow Arizona manages to always be bad despite having such great players.

Sure, Chychrun has probably done enough to show he fell too far, that he has some more offensive upside than many thought (as long as he can shoot at 8-10%). But he's also never stayed healthy in an 82 game season (never even played over 70 games), he's usually a minus player, and what he did last season was mainly feasting on the bottom teams in a weak division (12 goals against LA/Ana/SJ, 6 goals against Vegas/STL/Min/COL).

Arizona is pretty much a joke and almost always has been.

 

[rhef3]

Just gauging our ranking on the season for the next rebuilding year and looking across some sites and our possible draft pick outcome for 2022

Buffalo
Anaheim
Arizona
San Jose
Columbus
L.A Kings
Detroit
Ottawa

This is one of the pre-rankings coming into the season, if it ended up like this we would be looking at the 7th pick in the 2022 draft, do you see us improving our odds at a better pick or do you see this as accurate ?

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Just gauging our ranking on the season for the next rebuilding year and looking across some sites and our possible draft pick outcome for 2022

Buffalo
Anaheim
Arizona
San Jose
Columbus
L.A Kings
Detroit
Ottawa

This is one of the pre-rankings coming into the season, if it ended up like this we would be looking at the 7th pick in the 2022 draft, do you see us improving our odds at a better pick or do you see this as accurate ?

I think that's a good ballpark estimate. I do expect one of the California teams to be better than us, probably Los Angeles.

Barring some lottery luck I expect us to pick in that now-familiar 5-10ish range again.

 

[golffuul]

Just gauging our ranking on the season for the next rebuilding year and looking across some sites and our possible draft pick outcome for 2022

Buffalo
Anaheim
Arizona
San Jose
Columbus
L.A Kings
Detroit
Ottawa

This is one of the pre-rankings coming into the season, if it ended up like this we would be looking at the 7th pick in the 2022 draft, do you see us improving our odds at a better pick or do you see this as accurate ?

We could fall anywhere between 5 and 12, this year, in terms of where we would be drafting. A lot of it will depend on the first 1/5 to 1/4 of the season and how well our upgrades (Leddy, Suter, Ned, Seider) work out for us. Having an almost functioning top 4 D will be big for us, as well as having some of our forward core playing in some better depth situations.

So 7th falls about where we could be. I think the Kings will be better than us if their goaltending holds up. I also think Seattle could fall into the bottom 10, as well, because they don't seem to have any goal scoring and if Grubauer gets hurt or underperforms, it could make for a long year. And a couple of other teams, like Chicago, Minnesota, Calgary, and Vancouver could all fall off, with Minnesota being easily the fastest to fall depending on Kaprizov and whether the rest of the league know how to handle him in his 2nd year.