NHL suspends season due to COVID19 - Part 3

[Pierre from Orleans]

I am currently in charge of scheduling for one of the Assessment centres, can confirm less people are showing up. According to our data, the peak was a couple of weeks ago.

How many people come to get tested a day on average would you say

 

[thinkwild]

 

[dumbdick]

To be fair, given what we know of the prevalence of asymptomatic infections and the near guarantee that anyone who is symtomatic yet still shows up at the airport will likely take some advil to supress any fever, i think this is more theatre than science based attempt to detect potential infections.

I personally could care less about my temperature getting taken, not sure what the downside of allowing them to have that data point from a privacy perspective would be, but i also think its pointless from a safety perspective and potentially harmful if it creates a false sense of security among the on board staff and the customers.

Disagree a bit on this one. I don't think Advil is perfect in reducing a fever to zero and you have to time it right, etc. Second, I think the temperature taking acts as a deterrent for those people who would try to pull this stuff and fly sick. Finally, is there a correlation between your likelihood of transmitting the virus and whether you are symptomatic? Coughing alone seems like it would make it more likely to travel farther in the air. I think that Theresa Tam was pushing this a few months ago.

Where I do agree is that this is going to throw a tonne of false positives, and you'll get a lot of people who are going to be put out. That said, planes are different than the supermarket. These measures could theoretically prevent the introduction of the virus into new locations where it could spiral into millions of cases and tens of thousands of deaths, plus all the economic fallout, etc.. So I say bring it on and do whatever you can. The government is asking many people to sacrifice their employment while we get this under control. Telling people they can't fly with a fever seems like a pretty minor concession by comparison.

 

[Rand0m]

Disagree a bit on this one. I don't think Advil is perfect in reducing a fever to zero and you have to time it right, etc. Second, I think the temperature taking acts as a deterrent for those people who would try to pull this stuff and fly sick. Finally, is there a correlation between your likelihood of transmitting the virus and whether you are symptomatic? Coughing alone seems like it would make it more likely to travel farther in the air. I think that Theresa Tam was pushing this a few months ago.

Where I do agree is that this is going to throw a tonne of false positives, and you'll get a lot of people who are going to be put out. That said, planes are different than the supermarket. These measures could theoretically prevent the introduction of the virus into new locations where it could spiral into millions of cases and tens of thousands of deaths, plus all the economic fallout, etc.. So I say bring it on and do whatever you can. The government is asking many people to sacrifice their employment while we get this under control. Telling people they can't fly with a fever seems like a pretty minor concession by comparison.

A Cough/Sneeze is definitely the way this spreads the furthest (on surfaces and in the air temporarily). A highly virulent person can still expel some droplets that contain some of the virus simply by breathing (and more of it when talking) even if they don't have any symptoms (yet). That exhale though contains a relatively small amount and doesn't spread that far. So if you're sitting next to (or having a conversation with) an asymptomatic but infected person for more than 10-15 minutes, the viral load you might receive could be high enough to give you the virus.

There have now been a few studies of super spreading events and it's almost always in an indoor environment where people are in relatively close contact for an extended period of time. Some of the ones I saw where a restaurant in China where one infected person ended up infecting a majority of the people that were "downwind" from him/her due to the restaurants ventilation. The act of eating and talking for 1-1.5hrs was spreading his infected droplets into the air, the draft would blow it to one side of the restaurant and most got sick. This virus is no joke. COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020

From what I've read, to get the virus, you need a certain viral load to reach your throat/lungs. Different events cause the viral load to spread at different rates. A single cough or sneeze in your direction will likely be enough of the viral load to infect you but what's released while speaking normally would need about 10 or so minutes to reach a level that could potentially infect you.

Now if someone in public sneezes or coughs in your face, I think they deserve a swift punch to the gut at this point.

All this is the reason why physical distancing is so important followed by frequent hand washing. I suspect that with this virus though, the number of infections stemming from touching a surface is relatively low as the viral load would have to be high/fresh on that surface and you'd have to immediately touch your nose/mouth/eyes for it to enter your system.

 

[Knave]

Over 15K tests done yesterday, backlog back up higher as well.

Their reported ICU last two days has been lowest since April 2nd (they started recording this data on April 1st).

Hospitalizations seem stable around 1,000, it will shoot up, go down for several days, shoot up again, go down.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Trump is pressuring the CDC to change its death-toll methodology and produce a lower figure, report says

 

[Stylizer1]

The population in Quebec is 8.5 million and they were the most locked down province in Canada.

The population in Sweden is almost 10.25 million and they didn't do a lock down.

The death rate in Quebec due to Covid-19 is 3131

The death rate in Sweden due to Covid-19 is 3460

 

[kife]

The population in Quebec is 8.5 million and they were the most locked down province in Canada.

The population in Sweden is almost 10.25 million and they didn't do a lock down.

The death rate in Quebec due to Covid-19 is 3131

The death rate in Sweden due to Covid-19 is 3460

Statistics at a very general level without analysis of underlying influence can always point to whatever opinion you want to make. I live in Quebec, there are a lot of factors that would point to why the death rate is high with excessive lockdown measures. First would be healthcare. It is the worst healthcare system in Canada, especially outside of the island of Montreal. For years the PQ was siphoning money away from social services in the hopeful event of separation, leaving essential services like healthcare and education heavily underfunded. Sweden's healthcare system is radically better. Secondly would be long term care homes where a large majority of deaths in Quebec have come from. It is well known, and has been for years, how inadequately funded and poorly administed the system for caring for elders is in Quebec. Again, the PQ had other priorities for their money as intimated in the first factor. Sweden, by all accounts, excels in long term care as well. Another reason is that the Quebecois are inherently social creating an easy avenue for transmission. Swedes less so and tend to live in smaller social units. I could go on and on. What I'm really saying is that if you want to compare, Italy and France would be better comparisons as their modality of living are more easily comparable to Quebec's lifestyle and social organization as transmission is really predicated, in a way, by how we live.

 

[thinkwild]

Sweden will be a very interesting case study to monitor. We will learn from their experience for sure. But i agree that comparing the numbers can be misleading as to what it is measuring. Sweden's health care and old age systems are apparently a fair bit superior to ours. These numbers could indeed be more a reflection of the quality of our old age homes. I dont think Quebec is unique among provinces in having funded the health care of old age homes like a for profit prison system.

It also seems like we sometimes misrepresent what Sweden did. They werent everything goes but rather apparently responsible about social distancing in certain settings anyway. And they admit their death rate was much higher than they thought it would be.

Swedens numbers will be instructive, but these numbers on their own without breakdown and context are surely capable of being quite misleading until we know we are comparing properly. Like what is the comparison of old age deaths vs others, etc.

 

[thinkwild]

Disagree a bit on this one. I don't think Advil is perfect in reducing a fever to zero and you have to time it right, etc. Second, I think the temperature taking acts as a deterrent for those people who would try to pull this stuff and fly sick. Finally, is there a correlation between your likelihood of transmitting the virus and whether you are symptomatic? Coughing alone seems like it would make it more likely to travel farther in the air. I think that Theresa Tam was pushing this a few months ago.

Where I do agree is that this is going to throw a tonne of false positives, and you'll get a lot of people who are going to be put out. That said, planes are different than the supermarket. These measures could theoretically prevent the introduction of the virus into new locations where it could spiral into millions of cases and tens of thousands of deaths, plus all the economic fallout, etc.. So I say bring it on and do whatever you can. The government is asking many people to sacrifice their employment while we get this under control. Telling people they can't fly with a fever seems like a pretty minor concession by comparison.

I agree that having your temperature taken is a minor concession. Maybe like having to remove your shoes, it is a new part of air travel we will have to come to accept. But I dont think many pilots or flight attendant would ever be as foolish as i once was and travel with a cold, because they know enough how not to get the ear infection i got from doing it.

The temperature taking is a bit like the mask. It contributes as part of the overall plan of reducing risk but on its own it is insufficient. Its when they dust their hands and say well we are now ok because we are taking temperatures that it becomes theater. Like thinking that stopping flights from China was a mission accomplished moment.

 

[Micklebot]

Sweden will be a very interesting case study to monitor. We will learn from their experience for sure. But i agree that comparing the numbers can be misleading as to what it is measuring. Sweden's health care and old age systems are apparently a fair bit superior to ours. These numbers could indeed be more a reflection of the quality of our old age homes. I dont think Quebec is unique among provinces in having funded the health care of old age homes like a for profit prison system.

It also seems like we sometimes misrepresent what Sweden did. They werent everything goes but rather apparently responsible about social distancing in certain settings anyway. And they admit their death rate was much higher than they thought it would be.

Swedens numbers will be instructive, but these numbers on their own without breakdown and context are surely capable of being quite misleading until we know we are comparing properly. Like what is the comparison of old age deaths vs others, etc.

Sweden is unique in that they have a high degree of trust in public officials. Their methods may not be as effective here, and certainly not in the states imo.

They also high a high percentage of the population that are in single person households, a big advantage.

 

[Knave]

The population in Quebec is 8.5 million and they were the most locked down province in Canada.

The population in Sweden is almost 10.25 million and they didn't do a lock down.

The death rate in Quebec due to Covid-19 is 3131

The death rate in Sweden due to Covid-19 is 3460

So your argument is the worst hit province in Canada, the province that makes up 22.5% of the population but the vast majority of all Canadian deaths is the barometer for success and we should try to kill more people so that we can be as successful as Quebec and Sweden?

Lets compare Canada as a whole (or Canada excluding Quebec) or Germany or all other Nordic countries. The lockdowns seemed to have worked in these countries and Sweden looks like a total shitshow and failure.

It's also a huge oversimplification to think these countries "shut down" while Sweden "did nothing".

Is your ability to go to the restaurant and eat inside it worth an extra 2,000-3,000 deaths in Ontario? That's what you believe?

 

[dumbdick]

I think Sweden's "no lock down" is a bit of a myth. from wikipedia:

1. On 16 March 2020, the agency recommended that people over 70 should limit close contact with other people, and avoid crowded areas such as stores, public transport and public spaces.
2. The same day, they also recommended that employers should recommend their employees work from home. One month later, statistics showed that roughly half the Swedish workforce was working from home.
   
3. The following day, the agency recommended that secondary schools and universities use distance learning, with schools following suit all over the country.
4. In April... a 50% drop in public transport usage. In Stockholm, the streets grew increasingly emptier, with a 30% drop in the number of cars, and 70% fewer pedestrians
5. Representatives of the swedish government, as well as its agencies, have repeatedly denied that pursuing herd immunity is part of the Swedish strategy

The timeline of these recommendations is really similar to the time frame for Ontario and Quebec. They have been more relaxed than the US/Canada, and do seem to be gearing up for the long haul on this. There have also been some statements there questioning strategies to wait for a vaccine. They don't seem to be pinning as much hopes on that. In fact, if you follow the press comms from our own leaders and public health officials, nobody really seems to be talking about a vaccine much these days. I guess we can read into that what we will.

 

[Masked]

Sweden's numbers are rather poor compared to their neighbours in Finland, Norway, and Denmark.

 

[Micklebot]

I think Sweden's "no lock down" is a bit of a myth. from wikipedia:

1. On 16 March 2020, the agency recommended that people over 70 should limit close contact with other people, and avoid crowded areas such as stores, public transport and public spaces.
2. The same day, they also recommended that employers should recommend their employees work from home. One month later, statistics showed that roughly half the Swedish workforce was working from home.
   
3. The following day, the agency recommended that secondary schools and universities use distance learning, with schools following suit all over the country.
4. In April... a 50% drop in public transport usage. In Stockholm, the streets grew increasingly emptier, with a 30% drop in the number of cars, and 70% fewer pedestrians
5. Representatives of the swedish government, as well as its agencies, have repeatedly denied that pursuing herd immunity is part of the Swedish strategy

The timeline of these recommendations is really similar to the time frame for Ontario and Quebec. They have been more relaxed than the US/Canada, and do seem to be gearing up for the long haul on this. There have also been some statements there questioning strategies to wait for a vaccine. They don't seem to be pinning as much hopes on that. In fact, if you follow the press comms from our own leaders and public health officials, nobody really seems to be talking about a vaccine much these days. I guess we can read into that what we will.

Lockdown vs adhered to voluntary measures I guess

As for denying perusing herd immunity, sure. I don't think they actively pursued it, but it's kind of build into their models when they talk about how when other countries lift their measures, they will have big spikes in cases while Sweden won't have to deal with those and in the end the cases will even out. It would be political suicide to admit actively pursuing herd immunity at this point anyways.

 

[Knave]

Lockdown vs adhered to voluntary measures I guess

As for denying perusing herd immunity, sure. I don't think they actively pursued it, but it's kind of build into their models when they talk about how when other countries lift their measures, they will have big spikes in cases while Sweden won't have to deal with those and in the end the cases will even out. It would be political suicide to admit actively pursuing herd immunity at this point anyways.

Like you said - saying they did nothing is wrong. If you could work from home on your laptop, that's what you did and are doing. I'm sure many people voluntarily cut down on trips and restaurant visits. But then you see video of crowded cafes and restaurants and you know many are not doing any distancing. And then you compare Ontario at 14.5 million people with a megacity in Toronto, with hundreds of thousands of people flying and driving back from hotspots in the United States and Europe.... we have less deaths than Sweden with 4 million more people. Per capita things just look ugly for Sweden.

How much are thousands of lives in Ontario worth to some people? Is it worth those outings to restaurants with friends and family?

There are lessons to be learned. I do want an inquiry. Not to blame Doug Ford or anybody but to figure out what we can do to avoid this situation next time. Maybe a situation like South Korea or Germany where the lockdown is shorter because there is better testing and tracing infrastructure and better healthcare capacity to deal with outbreaks.

Sweden is not a lesson for Ontario or Canada. It's not even a lesson for Quebec. There are better countries to learn from.