Dealer's Choice: Team Rant - Seth Jones is the second coming of PK Subban, and will even be worse than PK at the same points in their careers. Jones' contract will go down as one of the worst in NHL history.
Well on his way to a 10mil aav contract, Seth Jones is big, puts up decent amounts of points, is a minutes eater, is a good skater, and is not worth even close to the contract he is going to get.
I always bang the transition game drum, says everyone, so why don't you look at his transition data! It's exceptional!
Well, sure, ignoring the horrific zone entry defense. But not every player can be a beast at everything. Granted, Jones with the puck on his stick definitely gets the puck into the offensive zone with the best of them, cumulatively, the last 4 seasons. Or does he? 2 seasons ago, a disturbing trend arose- one we are all familiar with: the dump and chase. His controlled entry/60 is now in the 83rd percentile. It fell from last year's 86th percentile, which was a far cry from the 99th and and 93rd percentile from 2018 and 2017, respectively.
The entry defense issue is glaring. It is backed by both the macrostats, microstats, and the eye test. His pursuit and gap control are horrendous and as a result he will rarely halt an opposing rush and catch the opponent outnumbered during transition. His exceptional transition play, in a way, is empty and does not tip the offensive scales. In only 2 of the last 6 seasons (his CBJ seasons), his xG%rel was in the positives. In the same vein, in the past 3 years, his presence on the ice DID NOT effect CBJ's percentage of goals for at 5v5. It was exactly 53% with him on the ice vs off the ice. In his entire 9 season career, only 5 times has he outperformed a 51 xG%, and only thrice outperformed 52%. In other words, he's never been more than bang average at both suppressing opponents and manufacturing offense.
Once he loses that half step as he approaches 30, the results could and will be disastrous. He'll no longer be able to rely on his good "point a to point b" skating to stay mask his poor check attachment while defending, likely leading to more chances against off the rush, not just entries allowed. On the PP, he is even a worse performer than someone like Subban, so it would be foolish to point to some sort of PP prowess to scratch and claw for value. Jones' PPxGF reached 10 in 6 of 9 seasons, with only 3 of those seasons above 15. PK only dropped BELOW 15 twice, delivering upwards of 25 xGF in 6 seasons, for example. PK's 6 seasons of 4 or more pp points/60 dwarf Jones' 3 seasons. Jones also has only 2 seasons under his belt of 90+ PPCF/60 while PK owns 10 seasons eclipsing that mark, including 5 seasons of >100.
In conclusion, lol Seth Jones.