The Possibility of the Extreme—The Black Swan Save
If contrarians exceed the average, it is important to understand how they can do it with remarkable consistency. I believe their unconventional style and willingness to react to shots leaves them better prepared to handle the possibility of the statistically unique shot—which I will call a ‘Black Swan’ opportunity.§ They can always use the butterfly tactic in situations that call for it, while the butterfly-reliant goaltenders struggle to improvise like contrarians. The ‘reaction’ strategy leaves them free to make the unconventional saves necessary to prevent Black Swans from becoming goals.
The position relies on instinct and split second decisions. Reactions and responses to defined situations are drilled into goalies from an increasingly young age. Long before these goaltenders are capable of playing in the NHL, they have generally mastered technical responses to certain, finite situations. Goaltenders may be trained very well to react predictably in trained circumstances, but this leaves the goaltender susceptible to the extreme—breeding mediocrity. In this case, the extreme or Black Swan shot, is the result of 10 position players on the ice, moving at speeds up to 30 miles per hour, chasing an object that can move close to 100 miles per hour. Despite the simple objective and the definitive results of the goaltending position, every shot against them has the potential to create an infinite amount of complexities and permutations. A one-dimensional approach—where the goaltender determines they are better off ‘playing the percentages’—to the position offers the goaltender the opportunity to make a large number of saves, but it does not prepare the goaltender to react favorably to a Black Swan. The problem, then, is not maintaining a predictable level of performance—making the saves ‘you should make’—it is the ability to adjust to the unpredictable and the extreme in order to make a critical save. This is accomplished by reacting to shots a healthy percent of the time.
The real objective of the goaltender is to give up fewer goals than the opposing goaltender. In a low scoring game such as hockey, it is likely one goal against will determine the outcome of any given game. Passively leaving the outcome up to chance is a mistake in my opinion. Aggressiveness and assertiveness are competitive qualities that are compromised by a predominantly butterfly style. By dropping in the butterfly the goaltender is surrendering to whatever unlikely or unlucky shot that may occur. A great play, a seeing-eye shot, or unlikely bounce—the ‘unlikely, undrilled’ occurrences that have the potential to win or lose games—happen randomly. The goaltender must be aggressive and decisive in order to adjust to these situations. These are the shots that cannot be replicated in repetitive drills; they require the creativity and instinctual reaction of an instinctual contrarian.
Goaltending—A Lesson in Randomness
The frequency of the Black Swan shot or goal against is erratic. They can happen at anytime. There is little correlation between shots against and goals against on a game-by-game basis. If we assume the amount of Black Swan’s a goaltender faces is roughly proportional to the amount of goals given up— generally the more improbable shots faced, the more goals against—we counter-intuitively observe that the ‘Black Swans’ and the goals they caused occur randomly in a hockey game, largely independent of the number of shots against the goaltender. Taking the 10 busiest goaltenders of the 2010-2011 season, we see that their save percentage generally goes up as they receive more shots against. It does not matter whether the team gives up 20 shots or 40 shots, the random Black Swan occurrences that result in goals will happen just as frequently, regardless of the shots against. In outings where those goaltenders faced more than 40 shots, the average save percentage and shots against were 94.63% and 43.51, respectively. This implies these goaltenders gave up, on average, 2.33 goals per game when facing more than 40 shots.† When these same goaltenders faced less than 20 shots, their save percentage was a paltry 82.17% on an average of 14.85 shots. This implies 2.64 goals against per outing where the goaltender faced less than 20 shots.§ Counter-intuitively they fared worse while facing less than half of the shots.
The frequency of the ‘Black Swan’ occurrences that led to goals appear to be largely independent of shots on goal. ‘Playing the percentages’ leaves every goaltender hopelessly exposed to random chance throughout the game. Goaltenders in the world’s best league do no better in absolute terms when they face 20 shots than 40 shots. They are the same goaltenders, they just fall victim to circumstance and luck.
Simply ‘playing the percentages,’ with an emphasis on blocking from the butterfly, leaves the goaltenders fate up to pure chance. No goaltender can attempt to consistently out-perform their peers by playing the percentages—at least, not with certainty. Hoping to block 90% of the net while relying on your team to limit quality opportunities will result in mediocrity. The Black Swan events that lead to goals occur randomly and just as frequently facing 15 shots as 50 shots. This has manifested itself in ‘average’ goaltenders’ performances fluctuating unpredictably from game to game and from season to season. In a game where random luck is prevalent, employing a strategy that struggles to adjust to the complexities of a game as dynamic as hockey will result in erratic and unexplainable outcomes.
