GDT: NHL Free Agency | Friday, July 1st, 10am MT (NHLN, TSN) | Black Friday part III

[Mighty Makar]

What would you call a fair deal to Barrie, that you suspect the Avs may have offered?

I'm thinking $5.5M.

 

[henchman21]

What would you call a fair deal to Barrie, that you suspect the Avs may have offered him?

And why would he pass it over to go to arbitration?

5/6 years in the 5.5-6.25m per range. That falls right in the range of where Krug landed with a mixture of RFA and UFA years, and Yandle of all UFA years.

Because he likely wants 7+m per for a long term deal and this is just a part of negotiations. All parties will use every tool they can to get what they need out of a deal. Money is a factor here and arbitration sets a deadline, a base of where things go, and at guarantees Barrie more money than his QO.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I'm thinking $5.5M.

I'd be willing to go up to 6.5(most likely) with Barrie for a slight overpayment. But I think that his market value is in the 5.5M range, give or take 500k.

 

[Iceberg]

5/6 years in the 5.5-6.25m per range. That falls right in the range of where Krug landed with a mixture of RFA and UFA years, and Yandle of all UFA years.

Because he likely wants 7+m per for a long term deal and this is just a part of negotiations. All parties will use every tool they can to get what they need out of a deal. Money is a factor here and arbitration sets a deadline, a base of where things go, and at guarantees Barrie more money than his QO.

If Barrie wants 7M or close to it, he won't get it from the Avs or from filling for arbitration. I believe he'll get something in the low 5's in arbitration.

Now, if the Avs had offered him a long term deal at 6X6M, wouldn't be better for him to sign it? Something like this (Considering he has 3 more RFA years):

1 - 5.25
2 - 5.25
3 - 5.50
4 - 7.00
5 - 7.00

I just don't see how filling for arbitration makes a lot of sense for Barrie, if he is really looking for 7M on a long term deal.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Am I the only one thinking that Newport could be pushing Barrie more than he's comfortable with? I mean obviously Barrie wants to get paid, but I feel like Newport is taking it further than is necessary and maybe the reason Barrie filed is just to put a deadline on the negotiations and get it over with ASAP.

 

[Freudian]

Arbitration makes sure Barrie is under contract for next year, no matter what happens. If he didn't file for it, Avs could simply let him sit at home as the season starts and it would be a test of who caves first.

O'Reilly might have the stomach for such games, but few players have.

I don't know if Barrie wants out or not, but he probably see Avs best offer before arbitration so everyone knows where they stand.

 

[Iceberg]

Arbitration makes sure Barrie is under contract for next year, no matter what happens. If he didn't file for it, Avs could simply let him sit at home as the season starts and it would be a test of who caves first.

O'Reilly might have the stomach for such games, but few players have.

I don't know if Barrie wants out or not, but he probably see Avs best offer before arbitration so everyone knows where they stand.

I understand that, but what i'm saying is that the arbitration route doesn't make sense if you believe he is looking for 7M.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

A part of me believes that Barrie choosing arbitration was a way to say "hey, I want to be here, can we actually negotiate now?". It would be nice if Sakic and co. could get Barrie re-signed long-term prior to arbitration.

 

[henchman21]

I just don't see how filling for arbitration makes a lot of sense for Barrie, if he is really looking for 7M on a long term deal.

Arbitration is the best tool he has to make sure he gets paid as much as possible for next season. It may not be 7m, but it ensures the Avs can't really put the screws to him.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

EVERY single player who played more than 90 minutes of even strength time with Mikhail Grigorenko last season produced more with Grigs than without. That list includes 12 skaters total.

So of the 12 teammates that Grigorenko played most of his time with last year not ONE of them performed more poorly with him than without him. Most of them performed significantly better. I know a lot of people don't understand why some people like him so much but he makes people around him better. I think he's the smartest player on the team. Smarter than Soda IMO.

 

[AslanRH]

Arbitration is the best tool he has to make sure he gets paid as much as possible for next season. It may not be 7m, but it ensures the Avs can't really put the screws to him.

It also means he can't receive offer sheets, opens the door for the Avs to opt for 2 years rather than 1, nor does it force the Avs to use their one club elected arbitration on him this round.

Gotta say I think iceberg is correct in that Barrie had better options than a player filing

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

EVERY single player who played more than 90 minutes of even strength time with Mikhail Grigorenko last season produced more with Grigs than without. That list includes 12 skaters total.

So of the 12 teammates that Grigorenko played most of his time with last year not ONE of them performed more poorly with him than without him. Most of them performed significantly better. I know a lot of people don't understand why some people like him so much but he makes people around him better. I think he's the smartest player on the team. Smarter than Soda IMO.

That's pretty impressive.

 

[cgf]

What really bugs me about when hockey media talks about the Avs its like they are not even trying to see things from the Avs mgmt pov. Whether you agree with it or not. Good reporting is being impartial and unbiased and giving your audience both sides and you get to make your own opinion from that.
Its like they arent even trying to do that. Like why is it so hard to sign Barrie like it was with ROR? Oh look they were both represented by Newport? Whats going on there ? is there something up with them and the Avs? Lets take a closer look at Barrie and why a team would be hesitant to pay him a large contract. ..etc, etc
Nope its all Avs are cheap. Thats it. Thats the narrative.

They're just salty that a "canada made dynasty" didn't win any cups in canada. Never under-estimate just how nationalistic Canadians are, especially about hockey.

 

[The Abusement Park]

EVERY single player who played more than 90 minutes of even strength time with Mikhail Grigorenko last season produced more with Grigs than without. That list includes 12 skaters total.

So of the 12 teammates that Grigorenko played most of his time with last year not ONE of them performed more poorly with him than without him. Most of them performed significantly better. I know a lot of people don't understand why some people like him so much but he makes people around him better. I think he's the smartest player on the team. Smarter than Soda IMO.

I hate the people who cherry pick on his goals as well. He did a very admirable job of working his way from the 4th line and being scratched to being a good top 6 winger for us. He'd be a the perfect smart, playmaking winger for Mack IMO.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I hate the people who cherry pick on his goals as well. He did a very admirable job of working his way from the 4th line and being scratched to being a good top 6 winger for us. He'd be a the perfect smart, playmaking winger for Mack IMO.

Honestly I think Grigs could stand to be a little more selfish. His release is absolutely nasty. He doesn't have the hardest shot around but it's fairly accurate and the release is insane. It definitely throws goaltenders off. One of the most unique releases around. He used it more in the AHL and it was fairly successful.

If I'm the Avs I have Grigs powerskating and shooting pucks at a wall all summer. If he improves his foot speed/quickness (his straight long speed is already deceivingly fast)and adds a couple of MPH behind that wrister he will be a highly effective NHL'er.

edit: And you're right about Mack. I like Grigs with Duchene but I LOVE him with MAckinnon. He doesn't have what I call "Barrie" brain. A lot of players on the team have it. They have a quick easy pass option available to a guy moving with speed but it isn't complicated enough so they try to go cross ice through 4 bodies and sticks to find an impossible guy. So many low percentage passes and flicks through the middle of the ice with the Avalanche.

 

[henchman21]

It also means he can't receive offer sheets, opens the door for the Avs to opt for 2 years rather than 1, nor does it force the Avs to use their one club elected arbitration on him this round.

Gotta say I think iceberg is correct in that Barrie had better options than a player filing

Barrie had ~10 days to field potential offersheets. If one was coming, Barrie wouldn't have filed. I'm sure Barrie and Newport know the market well enough to gauge that.

The 2 years vs 1 is a calculated risk, but it sets a base salary higher than what Barrie was guaranteed for next season. It may not be exactly what they want, but it is a method to get the Avs to pay more.

I really don't think Barrie had a better option. He basically has 3 routes... arbitration that can pretty much guarantee $5m per season for the next 2-3 years, wait for an offersheet (that may not come) rejecting the QO after which the Avs are free to offer less, or hold out. One of those options gives the most guaranteed money. It may not have the most maximization long-term, but it offers the highest base by far and the least amount of risk.

 

[The Kingslayer]

EVERY single player who played more than 90 minutes of even strength time with Mikhail Grigorenko last season produced more with Grigs than without. That list includes 12 skaters total.

So of the 12 teammates that Grigorenko played most of his time with last year not ONE of them performed more poorly with him than without him. Most of them performed significantly better. I know a lot of people don't understand why some people like him so much but he makes people around him better. I think he's the smartest player on the team. Smarter than Soda IMO.

Easily. If he can get a little faster and stronger he will be a star in this league and on this team.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

My guess on the Barrie situation is we end up seeing a long term 6 year deal a couple days before the arbitration date.

Year 1: 4.5M
Year 2: 5.0M
Year 3: 5.0M
Year 4: 6.0M
Year 5: 6.5M
Year 6: 8.0M


35M over 6 years, with a noticeable jump in pay for the UFA years. With a full NMC for the first 5 years, and a modified NTC(List up to 10 teams) for the final year. Just as a potential out for the Avs in the last year in case something has happened within the team and we dont want to pay Barrie that 8M on the final year.



As for Grigorenko, He's probably the player I am most excited about for next season. Either he or Rantanen. I was pretty hard on him back in November and was vocal about it. I didn't see much potential at all in him, but now that he's had the opportunity to play an impact role on this team the 2nd half of last year, my opinion has completely changed on him. I really think he can be a legit first line winger on this team for us. He'll never score a lot of goals, but his two way game will be fantastic, and he can find open teammates very well. Can definitely see him becoming a ~15-20 Goal/~40 Assist guy for us in a few years on a line with Duchene.

 

[AslanRH]

Barrie had ~10 days to field potential offersheets. If one was coming, Barrie wouldn't have filed. I'm sure Barrie and Newport know the market well enough to gauge that.

The 2 years vs 1 is a calculated risk, but it sets a base salary higher than what Barrie was guaranteed for next season. It may not be exactly what they want, but it is a method to get the Avs to pay more.

I really don't think Barrie had a better option. He basically has 3 routes... arbitration that can pretty much guarantee $5m per season for the next 2-3 years, wait for an offersheet (that may not come) rejecting the QO after which the Avs are free to offer less, or hold out. One of those options gives the most guaranteed money. It may not have the most maximization long-term, but it offers the highest base by far and the least amount of risk.

I disagree about the offersheets. There was a ton of rumored trade interest. The longer that Barrie went without a deal, the higher the likelihood a team that had interest would try the offersheet route rather than meet Sakic's trade demands.

I think Barrie chose the route he took because he wants to be on the Avs, not because it was his best option

 

[InjuredChoker]

My guess on the Barrie situation is we end up seeing a long term 6 year deal a couple days before the arbitration date.

Year 1: 4.5M
Year 2: 5.0M
Year 3: 5.0M
Year 4: 6.0M
Year 5: 6.5M
Year 6: 8.0M


35M over 6 years, with a noticeable jump in pay for the UFA years. With a full NMC for the first 5 years, and a modified NTC(List up to 10 teams) for the final year. Just as a potential out for the Avs in the last year in case something has happened within the team and we dont want to pay Barrie that 8M on the final year.

can't have NMCs/NTC for RFA years.

 

[Former Ladder]

My guess on the Barrie situation is we end up seeing a long term 6 year deal a couple days before the arbitration date.

Year 1: 4.5M
Year 2: 5.0M
Year 3: 5.0M
Year 4: 6.0M
Year 5: 6.5M
Year 6: 8.0M


35M over 6 years, with a noticeable jump in pay for the UFA years. With a full NMC for the first 5 years, and a modified NTC(List up to 10 teams) for the final year. Just as a potential out for the Avs in the last year in case something has happened within the team and we dont want to pay Barrie that 8M on the final year.

Shirley, you jest. There is no way Barrie gets $8M on any year of his deal.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Sabres could open next season without Kane, O'Reilly because of charges

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

can't have NMCs/NTC for RFA years.

Interesting.


I guess a NMC for years 4 and 5 then, with NTC for year 6.

 

[henchman21]

I disagree about the offersheets. There was a ton of rumored trade interest. The longer that Barrie went without a deal, the higher the likelihood a team that had interest would try the offersheet route rather than meet Sakic's trade demands.

I think Barrie chose the route he took because he wants to be on the Avs, not because it was his best option

There have been zero offersheets signed since ROR over 3 years ago, and 2 total since August 2010. They simply do not happen often. Barrie hinging his hopes on getting one would not be an advisable course of action from any agent.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I think we can move on back to the rumors thread and the Barrie watch thread to keep the convo going since this thread is about done.