NHL Entry Draft
- Thread starter Gnashville
- Start date
According to some here it's been a weak draft class for "years" so I'm guessing it was determined more along the lines of 12-14.
Porter Stoutheart
We Got Wood
- Jun 14, 2017
- 14,924
- 11,325
12 is a bit young. Maybe you get a sense there aren't going to be Crosbys or MacDavids but that's about it. 14-15 is more like the time, that's when there are some bantam drafts and players are getting evaluated more seriously for junior leagues. By 16 players here will have already been through drafts and the prospects board will have done draft rankings, for example. So there will be a very firm opinion 2 years in advance, but still pretty strong opinions at 3-4 years in advance of the draft.
That's why it's a crap shoot. We had a kid that was 5'4" his freshman year that is now over 6'1". Kids grow and mature at such rapid and different paces between 13-17. There's no kid that is close to a finished product at 16.
Porter Stoutheart
We Got Wood
- Jun 14, 2017
- 14,924
- 11,325
Yeah, that misses the point entirely. There are always outliers on a normal distribution, everybody knows that. It doesn't mean you can't still track the overall distribution. If it was a complete crap shoot, there would be no draft, no scouting, none of that.
That's why it's more of a crap shoot than most professional leagues. Project players that haven't even started their junior year of high school is very much a crap shoot.
Porter Stoutheart
We Got Wood
- Jun 14, 2017
- 14,924
- 11,325
Nobody is talking about other professional leagues here. NHL draft populations all have long broad wings and if you want to confine yourself to talking about individuals in those outlying portions of the population, then sure, you are into crapshoot territory. But why constrain yourself like that? Professionals do evaluate players in the central peak as well, and they get it right more often than not, they can definitely draw an informed conclusion about the strength of a draft looking at the population - the whole population not just the outliers - at age 16. They do it every year. Just because you and I can't do it doesn't mean it can't be done. It is done. Constantly. And it's not a crapshoot.
Sure chief. Rarely do they get it right most of the time in hockey, go look at every top of the draft.
I'd say of the professional sports hockey gets it right the least, football the most.
Porter Stoutheart
We Got Wood
- Jun 14, 2017
- 14,924
- 11,325
First part you are wrong at the top of the draft. Second part is a non sequitur, who cares about football when we are talking about how NHL prospects are evaluated?
First off you're wrong, go look at the top of the draft. 2nd part I'm right, I'm talking about evaluating kids is a crap shoot, they're not done growing.
Porter Stoutheart
We Got Wood
- Jun 14, 2017
- 14,924
- 11,325
I see you're still the Self Righteous one....Ok, lol, I can see there's no helping you. Wallow away!
Porter Stoutheart
We Got Wood
- Jun 14, 2017
- 14,924
- 11,325
Pot meets kettle, two obnoxious assholes collide, yet again.
I think the tidbit I would add to this back and forth is that hockey has a horrible amateur structure and draft system. The fact these decisions are made about players that are so young has always baffled me.
Porter Stoutheart
We Got Wood
- Jun 14, 2017
- 14,924
- 11,325
Well, especially now, there is not really any monolithic "structure". Players come from all over the world and all kinds of different systems.
Also, "decisions" are never final or irrevocable. Every tryout, every new level is a new decision. Players may be judged or evaluated, and whole drafts may be judged or evaluated, by the metrics available at a given snapshot in time, with greater or lesser uncertainty attached. Yet new opportunities are just around the corner, new data can be collected, new evaluations will be made accordingly at every step along the way.
You can say all that but it's really not true. I'm personally not just talking about the NHL draft, it's the whole system. If a kid isn't playing AAA hockey at minimum by the time he's 14 he isn't getting a snif at a D1 program much less the NHL.
When you look at other sports 14 y/o kids are still playing Jr High/middle school and aren't being scouted for college (unless they are an outlier) at that point. Maybe scouted to go to some fancy private pipeline type high school but not college. And how many of the kids that make it to D1 or D2 programs are taken for the performance on their high school teams not because their parents can afford $20,000 or more a year to play AAA from 12-14 y/o until they are 17-18?
It is a severely flawed system that buries players that aren't playing at a high enough level early enough in life and the only real option to dig out of that hole is to have a very serious bank account.
When you look at other sports 14 y/o kids are still playing Jr High/middle school and aren't being scouted for college (unless they are an outlier) at that point. Maybe scouted to go to some fancy private pipeline type high school but not college. And how many of the kids that make it to D1 or D2 programs are taken for the performance on their high school teams not because their parents can afford $20,000 or more a year to play AAA from 12-14 y/o until they are 17-18?
It is a severely flawed system that buries players that aren't playing at a high enough level early enough in life and the only real option to dig out of that hole is to have a very serious bank account.
Porter Stoutheart
We Got Wood
- Jun 14, 2017
- 14,924
- 11,325
Well, you are talking about the US system mostly, then? But yes, it is expensive everywhere, and if it is just a matter of hockey being cost prohibitive for many young athletes, then yes, that is certainly true. But aside from the cost, then here there are so many options now with the way the junior leagues have grown that I think players are not as automatically derailed if their local option turns them away.
To some extent all the NAHL/USHL and USPHL camps and things that flood our inboxes may be cash-grabs, but at the same time, I know people who attended 10 or more of these things, and if the player truly stands out, the opportunities are there, regardless of where you came from, they don't care if you played AAA at 12-14 if you can actually come in and stand out. The catch is, it's hard to stand out if you didn't do that, though. But if you do catch on, and then proceed to do well, it's still possible to climb the ladder and get back on a D1 program's radar, without the early-identification. "Possible". But indeed, it's a long expensive haul.
But I wonder what else you can do... hold back the rest to level things out to the lowest common denominators financially? 18 year old players can play successfully in the NHL more readily than 18 year old players in other sports too. The system has kind of grown to fit the specifics of the sport, including high costs, and as imperfect as it may be, and as often as the debates have raged, I wonder if there is truly any utopian solution that doesn't instead just turn things around and come with drawbacks at the other end.
I spent that money on my oldest kid, and yeah, I would love to have not had to. And there is no way I'm doing that again with the other 2. I would absolutely recommend against it to anybody else I talk to. I've taken all sides of the debates in the past, so I know what you're saying. But in the end, I'm not sure any of it REALLY matters. The current system basically fits our capitalist society, if we wanted to give every kid the right to play hockey on level footing with every other kid, we'd live in a different kind of world. Same as basically everything else. You know I'd love that. But it's not what we have here.
While this back and forth is riveting...
Does anyone have any actual prospects to address? Wish list etc.?
Does anyone have any actual prospects to address? Wish list etc.?
The Athletic put out a full mock draft. Here's the Preds selections
Nashville Predators
Daniil Chayka, LHD, Guelph-OHL (19)
Mackie Samoskevich, RW, Chicago-USHL (40)
Stanislav Svozil, LHD, Brno-Czech Extraliga (51)
Matvei Petrov, RW, Krylja Sovetov-MHL (83)
Vernier Miettinen, C, Espoo-Finland Jr. (115)
Hunter Strand, C, Tri-City-USHL (124)
James Malatesta, LW, Quebec-QMJHL (147)
Charles-Alexis Legault, RHD, Lincoln-USHL (179)
Nashville Predators
Daniil Chayka, LHD, Guelph-OHL (19)
Mackie Samoskevich, RW, Chicago-USHL (40)
Stanislav Svozil, LHD, Brno-Czech Extraliga (51)
Matvei Petrov, RW, Krylja Sovetov-MHL (83)
Vernier Miettinen, C, Espoo-Finland Jr. (115)
Hunter Strand, C, Tri-City-USHL (124)
James Malatesta, LW, Quebec-QMJHL (147)
Charles-Alexis Legault, RHD, Lincoln-USHL (179)
GoldOnGold
Registered User
Chayka is always bad in NHL 21, not sure that is wise.
haha...my first thought when I see a lot of these prospects is what their potential is in the game
Scoresberg
In Trotz We Trust?
Chayka at 19 would be horrendous. The rest of the picks are fine as is. The only defenseman at 19 I would go for is Lambos, I don't think the rest warrant that high of a pick.
I really don't want to get a defenseman at 19. There will be better options at forward than d. Take a couple dmen in the 2nd round
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