Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - First Round Tuesday October 6th

[ULF_55]

We can't assume 2015 was fully Dubas as we don't know if he or Hunter made the picks.

Plus we're talking about 2 seasons removed from the 2018 draft. You normally can't fully evaluate a draft for 4-5 years. What we do know is that the players for the most part are trending well:

2018:
1st - Sandin
2nd - Durzi
3rd - SDA
4th - Stotts
4th - Hollowell
5th - Kral
6th - Holmberg
7th - Bouthillier
7th - Kizimov

2019:
2nd - Robertson
3rd - Kokkonen
4th - Abramov
4th - Abruzzese
5th - Koster
7th - Loponen

Sandin, Robertson, Abramov, and Abruzzese all seem like unbelievable value at their respective picks. 4 of our 5 best prospects.

SDA, Hollowell, Kral, Holmberg, Kokkonen, and Loponen are all still legit prospects that were all picked in the 3rd round or later. Seem like good value, but we'll see how they end up.

The only guys that are no longer prospects are Bouthillier and maybe Stotts.

We need more information about Kizimov and Koster before we can judge them.

Durzi obviously helped us get Muzzin, that's a win in my book even though I wanted other people.

I think this is their highest pick with Dubas in charge?

But yes, a pick this year, not in the top 5, isn't expected to make any impact for several years.

A defenseman should not be expected to make an impact for 3-4 years.

I'd be okay if they moved this pick for a controlled asset.

 

[Morgs]

I think this is their highest pick with Dubas in charge?

But yes, a pick this year, not in the top 5, isn't expected to make any impact for several years.

A defenseman should not be expected to make an impact for 3-4 years.

I'd be okay if they moved this pick for a controlled asset.

If they miss on Pietrangelo, I think they should use it to upgrade their 1RD. Go after Hamilton, Pesce, etc.

If they do get Pietrangelo I think they should pick at 15 if one of the clear top-10, maybe top-12 make it to us. If not, trade back and pick up multiple first round talents.

 

[ULF_55]

If they miss on Pietrangelo, I think they should use it to upgrade their 1RD. Go after Hamilton, Pesce, etc.

If they do get Pietrangelo I think they should pick at 15 if one of the clear top-10, maybe top-12 make it to us. If not, trade back and pick up multiple first round talents.

Isn't the draft about 3 days before free agency?

I suppose we might see Dubas trade back in the draft, and get a later 1st. and 2nd.?
Has the value of picks remained the same, Leafs might get a late 1st. early 2nd., say from Annaheim/Ottawa?

 

[kk87]

Production-specifically, QMJHL is easier to score than OHL and QMJHL.

He's easily a top 10 forward out of the CHL (7-9 range), but that still puts him in the late teens/early 20's at the very best in this draft overall (when you account for non-CHL players and CHL defensemen like Drysdale, Guhle and Schneider).

This actually wasn't the case this year - the OHL produced almost a full goal per game more on average than either the Q or the W.

 

[cj19]

Dubas will trade the 15th pick to Ottawa to move back and take the 28th, 33 & 51- will draft Ridly Creig, Justin Barron, Tristen Robins.

 

[Judas Tavares]

Dubas will trade the 15th pick to Ottawa to move back and take the 28th, 33 & 51- will draft Ridly Creig, Justin Barron, Tristen Robins.

And if so and you add pick #44 in as well and combine that with Sandin, Robertson and Hallander, you would have 7 top 60 picks in the organization from the past 3 years. To me, that would essentially alleviate our depleting system. Yes, next you'd need to develop these guys properly and have them pan out, but 7 top 60 picks in the system is really nice, especially for a team that isn't rebuilding and also dealt some of their own top 60 picks away.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Dubas will trade the 15th pick to Ottawa to move back and take the 28th, 33 & 51- will draft Ridly Creig, Justin Barron, Tristen Robins.

Bold prediction but it wouldn't surprise me. I think that only happens if Jarvis, Schneider, Lundell and Askarov are off the board at that point.


If they draft Jarvis they could trade Marner for a 1st pair RHD as Jarvis makes Marner expendible.

 

[Morgs]

Isn't the draft about 3 days before free agency?

I suppose we might see Dubas trade back in the draft, and get a later 1st. and 2nd.?
Has the value of picks remained the same, Leafs might get a late 1st. early 2nd., say from Annaheim/Ottawa?

What I read is it will start 7 days after the Cup Final ends. So latest day will be 3 days after the draft.

I thought there was a couple day talking window prior to FA opening?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

What I read is it will start 7 days after the Cup Final ends. So latest day will be 3 days after the draft.

I thought there was a couple day talking window prior to FA opening?

Are they not just making it a concrete October 6-7 for Draft and October 9 for Free Agency?

 

[Morgs]

Are they not just making it a concrete October 6-7 for Draft and October 9 for Free Agency?

Yeah I read an outdated source. Didnt they have a speaking period with FAs like a week before FA started last season?

 

[Leafin]

Bold prediction but it wouldn't surprise me. I think that only happens if Jarvis, Schneider, Lundell and Askarov are off the board at that point.


If they draft Jarvis they could trade Marner for a 1st pair RHD as Jarvis makes Marner expendible.

it does not

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Dubas will trade the 15th pick to Ottawa to move back and take the 28th, 33 & 51- will draft Ridly Creig, Justin Barron, Tristen Robins.

I'd be ok with that outcome providing an unexpected faller isn't at 15. I like Greig and Robins. Can't say I've watched Barron at all or read up on him yet.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yeah I read an outdated source. Didnt they have a speaking period with FAs like a week before FA started last season?

That has been cut under the new CBA. You must now trade for rights (like Edmundson) to talk to them before October 9th... However there will almost certainly be tampering like there was in the past.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'd be ok with that outcome providing an unexpected faller isn't at 15. I like Greig and Robins. Can't say I've watched Barron at all or read up on him yet.

If we are going based on last year Barron, he could easily be the 2nd best defenseman in this draft behind Drysdale.

However, similar to Lapierre, he suffered a major injury and did not play all that well when he was in the lineup, which has dropped him to a borderline top 25 prospect. Halifax was not a good team though. Daemon Hunt is also very similar (suffered major injury and struggled when healthy on a poor team), but he was more of a top 25 prospect who is now more of a top 75 prospect at best IMO.

So, much like the rest of this draft, he is a major risk but could also become a top pairing RD 2018-19 was any indication.

 

[mydnyte]

Bold prediction but it wouldn't surprise me. I think that only happens if Jarvis, Schneider, Lundell and Askarov are off the board at that point.


If they draft Jarvis they could trade Marner for a 1st pair RHD as Jarvis makes Marner expendible.

do you actually believe that a player we may get at 15th overall in a 'weak' draft can replace Marner? ...he 'may' replace Kerfoot

 

[HC7]

Schneider sucks. Stop talking about him there's a 0% we take him. He's a shitty version of Cal Foote and Cal Foote will be lucky to be more than a 3rd pairing guy.

If you want a defensive specialist that can skate like the wind, and has a nasty side that's Kaiden Guhle.

Sanderson/Askarov are worth moving up for. One is a franchise G, the other is a top pairing guy that does it all.

Knowing Dubas Leafs will be looking into Zary, Jarvis, or Foerster. Reichel is interesting too, but Dubas seems to like his OHL picks.

I think it makes sense to move up to grab Askarov/Sanderson, or move back and look into 2 of Guhle/Foerster/Grans/Lapierre. Right now we're in no man's land. The draft drops off around the top 10, and 10-40 will probably end up being a wash.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Schneider sucks. Stop talking about him there's a 0% we take him. He's a shitty version of Cal Foote and Cal Foote will be lucky to be more than a 3rd pairing guy.

If you want a defensive specialist that can skate like the wind, and has a nasty side that's Kaiden Guhle.

Sanderson/Askarov are worth moving up for. One is a franchise G, the other is a top pairing guy that does it all.

Knowing Dubas Leafs will be looking into Zary, Jarvis, or Foerster. Reichel is interesting too, but Dubas seems to like his OHL picks.

I think it makes sense to move up to grab Askarov/Sanderson, or move back and look into 2 of Guhle/Foerster/Grans/Lapierre. Right now we're in no man's land. The draft drops off around the top 10, and 10-40 will probably end up being a wash.

Schneider has better puck skills than Guhle who is a turnover machine for both teams.

 

[supermann_98]

Bold prediction but it wouldn't surprise me. I think that only happens if Jarvis, Schneider, Lundell and Askarov are off the board at that point.


If they draft Jarvis they could trade Marner for a 1st pair RHD as Jarvis makes Marner expendible.

In before the Marner fanboys come in here an hijack this thread protecting his honour and reputation.

I agree though that those are the top 4 guys we could hope to expect to be available at 15. I would trade back for that Ottawa package if they were gone, lots of tantalizing guys left in the bottom of the 1st round and into the 2nd

 

[Judas Tavares]

In before the Marner fanboys come in here an hijack this thread protecting his honour and reputation.

I agree though that those are the top 4 guys we could hope to expect to be available at 15. I would trade back for that Ottawa package if they were gone, lots of tantalizing guys left in the bottom of the 1st round and into the 2nd

To be fair, and I'm saying this with Jarvis being my favourite prospect in the draft, but to suggest drafting Jarvis makes Marner expendable is dreaming big and also unrealistically. It essentially suggests a top 15 pick guarantees you a top line player. Sure Jarvis could become that, but he isn't Lafreniere, and the suggestion that he could at this point replace Marner is essentially the mystery box/grass is always greener syndromes.

I remember in 2012 a portion of the board was ready to sell off Kessel to acquire 1st overall cause Yakupov would make him expendable....

 

[RoadWarrior]

In before the Marner fanboys come in here an hijack this thread protecting his honour and reputation.

I agree though that those are the top 4 guys we could hope to expect to be available at 15. I would trade back for that Ottawa package if they were gone, lots of tantalizing guys left in the bottom of the 1st round and into the 2nd

Mercer is also pretty good as an all around player who can play center. I think it's likely they keep the pick but there are tons of forwards in the draft this year who project in the top 6 well into the second round.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

If we are going based on last year Barron, he could easily be the 2nd best defenseman in this draft behind Drysdale.

However, similar to Lapierre, he suffered a major injury and did not play all that well when he was in the lineup, which has dropped him to a borderline top 25 prospect. Halifax was not a good team though. Daemon Hunt is also very similar (suffered major injury and struggled when healthy on a poor team), but he was more of a top 25 prospect who is now more of a top 75 prospect at best IMO.

So, much like the rest of this draft, he is a major risk but could also become a top pairing RD 2018-19 was any indication.

Any chance he falls to our 2nd?

 

[nobody]

Any chance he falls to our 2nd?

Daemon Hunt is projected at our pick right now according to Bob McKenzie's list and I would happily target him. His season reminds me of the way Morgan Rielly went. Injured, played on a crap team and numbers didn't reflect just how good he was. Granted Rielly's draft year was significantly weaker on overall talent and Mo was a top pick the Dub and a highly touted prospect so his pre-draft year hype got him into the top 5 plus his raw talent was way too much to pass up. Hunt seems like a guy who has major upside but might be less likely to hit it, however I would happily take my shot at him with a 2nd round pick because he's the definition of a HR pick in this years draft. He's one of the hidden gems IMO. Another guy that I think who should get a big look is Pat Brisson's kid. He's been climibing the ladder quickly over these past few months. Having an agent dad in NHL executives' ears probably helps but he looks like he's going to be a stud 2C/3C that can be had in the late 1st ,early 2nd rnd slot.

 

[nobody]

If Askarov and Jarvis go before our picks, I would pray Dubas trades down and gets atleast 1 good 2nd round pick if not maybe 2 of them. There are 3-4 teams who are hoarding a bunch of 2nd round picks that I think we can probably entice into giving us some decent value. Specially if a guy they're targeting drops to our pick.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Any chance he falls to our 2nd?

I guess, but not overly likely unless people really soured on him after this year... Which would be foolish because there are few guys with his kind of upside in this kind of draft. Even his downside, as long as the injury has not completely sapped him, is still quite high. Most other guys in this draft either have low upside or are just as much of a boom-bust prospect, but unlike Barron, are boom-bust because of their playing style and not because of an injury.

 

[RoadWarrior]

If Askarov and Jarvis go before our picks, I would pray Dubas trades down and gets atleast 1 good 2nd round pick if not maybe 2 of them. There are 3-4 teams who are hoarding a bunch of 2nd round picks that I think we can probably entice into giving us some decent value. Specially if a guy they're targeting drops to our pick.

If you trade 15 you better get a first rounder back.