GDT: NHL Draft 7/23 R1 7pm ESPN 7/24 R2-7 Nhl Net

[Toews2Bickell]

I'm not sure how it logically doesn't make sense. Is Carey Price worth $5.5M more than Lehner? Was he worth $4.5M more than Crawford? It's a misallocation of resources because you are much better off spending that cap space on the rest of your roster.

how much is a win worth in the nhl? idk what that number is off the top of my head but these things can be quantified to some degree, a misallocation of capital would be overspending on players that don't have the production to justify the aav...so yeah it is possible that carey price was worth double lehner or crawford at some point/years, to say you would never want to pay an elite goalie is just illogical...

 

[Toews2Bickell]

I honestly don’t even know what you’re saying. With a hard cap, my opinion is that locking up an elite goalie long-term with Price numbers is a bad use of resources. You’re free to disagree with that, but to say it isn’t logical makes no sense.

production is worth some amount of value in the nhl, whether thats explicitly stated via some metrics like WAR or implicitly using some comparable contracts to assign player values, a misallocation of resources would require that you're paying too much for the production of a player, its that simple, so to say that you're never going to pay a goalie a lot of money is silly, if you think a goalie is worth x production over the course of the contract then you have an aav you can determine to be fair, thats all that matters and thats ultimately what you would use to determine whether resources are being allocated as efficiently as possible...so spending 10m+ on players like connolly, de haan, zadorov etc, probably not the most efficient use of capital and would actually be a misallocation given their production is replacement level and a replacement level player is worth collectively probably 3 million dollars total but they're paying 10 between that group

 

[Pez68]

how much is a win worth in the nhl? idk what that number is off the top of my head but these things can be quantified to some degree, a misallocation of capital would be overspending on players that don't ahve the production to justify the aav...so yeah it is possible that carey price was worth double lehner or crawford at some point/years, to say you would never want to pay an elite goalie is just illogical...

No, they really can't be quantified... "Wins above replacement" is f***ing nonsense in hockey. The game just doesn't work that way. Sometimes the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Sometimes the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. Because hockey isn't a game played 1 vs. 1, where individual impact can be quantified that way.

The best player in the world on the ice with four plugs is going to get absolutely demolished playing against a unit of five average NHLers... Because when you're on the ice actually playing the game, one weak link breaks the entire chain.

How many "goalie wins" do you think guys like Price or Vasilevski get you? Are those goalie wins the difference between winning and losing a cup?

How many cups do the best goalies in the NHL have between them in the salary cap era? Now do the same for the best defensemen and centers.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

No, they really can't be quantified... "Wins above replacement" is f***ing nonsense in hockey. The game just doesn't work that way. Sometimes the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Sometimes the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. Because hockey isn't a game played 1 vs. 1, where individual impact can be quantified that way.

The best player in the world on the ice with four plugs is going to get absolutely demolished playing against a unit of five average NHLers... Because when you're on the ice actually playing the game, one weak link breaks the entire chain.

How many "goalie wins" do you think guys like Price or Vasilevski get you? Are those goalie wins the difference between winning and losing a cup?

How many cups do the best goalies in the NHL have between them in the salary cap era? Now do the same for the best defensemen and centers.

how exactly do you think cap hits are determined when negotiating a new contract?

 

[hawksrule]

production is worth some amount of value in the nhl, whether thats explicitly stated via some metrics like WAR or implicitly using some comparable contracts to assign player values, a misallocation of resources would require that you're paying too much for the production of a player, its that simple, so to say that you're never going to pay a goalie a lot of money is silly, if you think a goalie is worth x production over the course of the contract then you have an aav you can determine to be fair, thats all that matters and thats ultimately what you would use to determine whether resources are being allocated as efficiently as possible...so spending 10m+ on players like connolly, de haan, zadorov etc, probably not the most efficient use of capital and would actually be a misallocation

Spending big money on Zadarov would also be a misallocation. There can be more than one example of it. If a combination of a lesser goalie + cap spent elsewhere is greater value than paying an elite goalie, then that is a misallocation. I don’t know how you’re not understanding an obvious premise, but this will be my last time explaining it.

 

[Pez68]

how exactly do you think cap hits are determined?

Production. Perception. Stupidity?

What is Carey Price bringing you at $10.5M over Robin Lehner? Not $5.5M worth of value.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Spending big money on Zadarov would also be a misallocation. There can be more than one example of it. If a combination of a lesser goalie + cap spent elsewhere is greater value than paying an elite goalie, than that is a misallocation. I don’t know how you’re not understanding an obvious premise, but this will be my last time explaining it.

because your premise to never spend on an elite goalie is wrong in theory...the goal is maximizing wins given constraint of resources like cap space, to say you should never do it is not always the correct answer, if wallstedt projects to be a more valuable player than anyone left on board at 11 you take him every time even if it means spending a lot of money to keep him later on assuming the production justifies the cap hit

 

[Pez68]

because your premise to never spend on an elite goalie is wrong in theory...the goal is maximizing wins given constraint of resources like cap space, to say you should never do it is not always the correct answer, if wallstedt projects to be a more valuable player than anyone left on board at 11 you take him every time even if it means spending a lot of money to keep him later on assuming the production justifies the cap hit

It's wrong because the drop off between "best goalie in the world" and "above average goalie" doesn't ever justify the cap space. Especially on a well built team. Is Carey Price worth an entire third line? f*** no.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Production. Perception. Stupidity?

What is Carey Price bringing you at $10.5M over Robin Lehner? Not $5.5M worth of value.

implicitly its an assumption about production unless you have some formula with explicit inputs about their projected production over life of contract to determine it, but its production like you said...and given production is quantifiable then obviously we can determine if cap space is being misallocated and how much the production is worth in general based on how resources have historically been allocated in cap space era

 

[Styles]

The argument not to take a goalie because you don’t want to pay them Price money in the future is so stupid. I’m not saying it’s smart to spend that much on a goalie but to not select a player because you might need to pay them years down the road. Lol

You’re also simultaneously admitting that the Hawks are possibly passing on one a the future best goalies in the world.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

It's wrong because the drop off between "best goalie in the world" and "above average goalie" doesn't ever justify the cap space. Especially on a well built team. Is Carey Price worth an entire third line? f*** no.

depends how good the third line could be, its not as simple as you're making it out to be, if you have a pool of $20 million dollars in cap and putting 10.5m toward carey price and the rest toward forwards maximizes proj production then you do it and vice versa

 

[Kevin Musto]

Here's an idea, and this is crazy but hear me out, maybe don't overpay your goalie?

 

[Hawkaholic]

I'm not sure how it logically doesn't make sense. Is Carey Price worth $5.5M more than Lehner? Was he worth $4.5M more than Crawford? It's a misallocation of resources because you are much better off spending that cap space on the rest of your roster.

Don't ask Bobby that question.

 

[Hawkaholic]

depends how good the third line could be, its not as simple as you're making it out to be, if you have a pool of $20 million dollars in cap and putting 10.5m toward carey price and the rest toward forwards maximizes proj production then you do it and vice versa

Paying 10mil for a goalie is f***ing dumb, no matter how you slice it. A team literally had the chance to get Carey Price for free, and passed up on it.

 

[Pez68]

depends how good the third line could be, its not as simple as you're making it out to be, if you have a pool of $20 million dollars in cap and putting 10.5m toward carey price and the rest toward forwards maximizes proj production then you do it and vice versa

That's the point. It never does. Because it doesn't matter if you have the best goalie on the planet. He's only as good as the team in front of him... Conversely, a great team can make an average goalie look really, really good.

Teams really only need "good" goaltending. Basically, don't lose us games. And even the best goalies on the planet....lose you games.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

 

[Kevin Musto]

Just gonna leave this here...

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Paying 10mil for a goalie is f***ing dumb, no matter how you slice it. A team literally had the chance to get Carey Price for free, and passed up on it.

sounds like a personal belief with nothing really to suggest quantitatively that it should never be done...in most cases it might be stupid but there are always exceptions to the rule, like paying Vas...my point was that avoiding Wallstedt because some day he might require a significant raise just doesn't make any sense at all

 

[clydesdale line]

Nice posturing Kelley. Let the other teams take goalies and let those forwards fall.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Nice posturing Kelley. Let the other teams take goalies and let those forwards fall.

"He reminds me of Paul Coffey' pt 2 for Kelley...Yzerman has went off the board once with Seider at 6, maybe he goes Wallstedt at 6 this year, they need a goalie and went defense/forward last two drafts

 

[Pez68]

Nice posturing Kelley. Let the other teams take goalies and let those forwards fall.

Ding ding.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

That's the point. It never does. Because it doesn't matter if you have the best goalie on the planet. He's only as good as the team in front of him... Conversely, a great team can make an average goalie look really, really good.

Teams really only need "good" goaltending. Basically, don't lose us games. And even the best goalies on the planet....lose you games.

historically speaking you might be right thats its never wise to spend a lot on goaltending and the fact that there are not many highly paid goalies relative to skaters would support that argument, but hawks should still consider wallstedt regardless of commesso if he's bpa when they pick

 

[Hawkaholic]

sounds like a personal belief with nothing really to suggest quantitatively that it should never be done...in most cases it might be stupid but there are always exceptions to the rule, like paying Vas...my point was that avoiding Wallstedt because some day he might require a significant raise just doesn't make any sense at all

There is an easy way to quantify it. How many teams in the league have won the Cup with having the highest paid goalie in the league since 2006? (1 - Tampa)

 

[Toews2Bickell]

There is an easy way to quantify it. How many teams in the league have won the Cup with having the highest paid goalie in the league since 2006? (1 - Tampa)

see my post above to pez, historically its probably true, just don't want to say its certainly always the case and hawks should make draft decisions based on that if they think wallstedt is a franchise goalie, especially if all the top tier skaters are off the board

 

[Hawkaholic]

see my post above to pez, historically its probably true, just don't want to say its certainly always the case and hawks should make draft decisions based on that if they think wallstedt is a franchise goalie, especially if all the top tier skaters are off the board

That's fine. I'd agree you don't draft him just because you'll have to pay him. I'm just arguing the amount you pay your goalie. If he's the best goalie in the league in 5 years, and wants a 10+mil contract? See ya!