NHL Draft: 2024 VS 2025

[95snipes]

Going by 'at time of draft'...guys that would likely go ahead of Celebrini....

2015: McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin, Marner
2016: Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi
2017:
2018: Dahlin, Svechnikov
2019: Hughes, Kakko, Byram
2020: Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle
2021: Power
2022:
2023: Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith, Michkov

Really only seeing Celebrini as candidate for 1oa in 2017 (would put Celebrini narrowly ahead of Patrick, Hischier) and 2022 (Celebrini would probably be consensus #1)

So on average....I think calling him a typical #3-5 is fair.

You are really selling Celebrini short here. He's the 2nd best prospect since Hughes behind Bedard. And if we are talking on draft day, I can see Celebrini ahead of Hughes.

I was high on Will Smith last year, but Celebrini is better than Smith is today while being a year younger. There is 0 chance Smith would go ahead.

 

[Kshahdoo]

You are really selling Celebrini short here. He's the 2nd best prospect since Hughes behind Bedard. And if we are talking on draft day, I can see Celebrini ahead of Hughes.

I was high on Will Smith last year, but Celebrini is better than Smith is today while being a year younger. There is 0 chance Smith would go ahead.

Celebrini isn't even as good as Fantilli.

 

[AuraSphere]

Celebrini isn't even as good as Fantilli.

This is a pretty dumb comment, he's as good if not better

 

[Kshahdoo]

This is a pretty dumb comment, he's as good if not better

Nah, it's a pretty clever comment, he isn't.

 

[95snipes]

Celebrini isn't even as good as Fantilli.

They're both good, but I would disagree with that.

Celebrini is much smarter, better offensive instincts, and more natural offense. Fantilli bigger, faster, and more power to his game.

I'd be happy to have either, but I like Celebrini's offensive upside better and think he is more versatile in regards to the role he can play on your team and the players he could mesh with on a line. One feather in Fantilli's cap was that he was a complete gamer for Michigan last year. Whenever they needed a play, Fantilli delivered. We'll see if Celebrini can do the same for BU.

Edit - also I think Fantilli is closer to a finished product at Michigan than Celebrini is at BU. We'll see how that plays out.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Michkov is better than Celebrini for sure.

Give me Celebrini over Fantilli by a little. Closer for Carlsson, but probably Celebrini.

 

[thrillhous]

This whole being down on a draft that looks wide open due to perceived lack of stand out top-end and in love with the next one reminds me of the discussion before the 2011 draft (2012 was more hyped at that point but turned out awful), 2014 draft (rightly so in the end as 2015 was lights out), 2017 draft (2017 was shit on repeatedly and 2018 was massively hyped, but 2017 was stronger in the end), 2021 draft (2022 was supposedly so much stronger but not looking that way anymore).

 

[austin63867]

I'm more excited for 2025 but I've warmed up to 2024. Some interesting depth but will probably track off by the early-mid 2nd. 2025 looks to be a more well-rounded year for all the big countries too (except Finland. Sorry, but they're looking like this year's Sweden)

 

[samsagat]

Since 2003, bad drafts have been rare.

2012? 2006? Maybe?

When everything is said and done, most drafts ends up producing around the same amount of star players, or NHLers.

Some years are more stacked in the upper echelon, some have more depth, exceptionally some years have both.

As far as I'm concerned, 2024 is a good draft, although more stacked in the defensemen department.

Most of the time, the hype for years stacked in defensemen is less enthusiastic.

But defensemen might be less exiting in terms of perceived enthusiasm, but elite ones are the backbone of a hockey team, as they help both their goaltenders and forwards to look good.

 

[Favin]

You are really selling Celebrini short here. He's the 2nd best prospect since Hughes behind Bedard. And if we are talking on draft day, I can see Celebrini ahead of Hughes.

I was high on Will Smith last year, but Celebrini is better than Smith is today while being a year younger. There is 0 chance Smith would go ahead.

I generalizing a consensus position at time of drafts...basically a snapshot view taken once a year over last decade...in other words, its nearly impossible to do.

Not get me wrong, I think Celebrini is a good prospect...but I just do not see him as typical #1. As I said, I think he would be #3-5 in most draft years. And probably only #1 candidate in 2024, 2022, 2017.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

2030 is going to be pretty solid though

No, 28 and beyond are all looking like weak drafts. Unless those guys build up quite a bit they are all small players.

 

[macbowes]

I generalizing a consensus position at time of drafts...basically a snapshot view taken once a year over last decade...in other words, its nearly impossible to do.

Not get me wrong, I think Celebrini is a good prospect...but I just do not see him as typical #1. As I said, I think he would be #3-5 in most draft years. And probably only #1 candidate in 2024, 2022, 2017.

Since 2015, the only guys that would be consensus better than Celebrini are McDavid, Eichel, Matthews, Dahlin, and Bedard. You can easily make a case for him being a better prospect than everyone else in their draft year. Hardly a below average 1OA.

 

[Favin]

Since 2015, the only guys that would be consensus better than Celebrini are McDavid, Eichel, Matthews, Dahlin, and Bedard. You can easily make a case for him being a better prospect than everyone else in their draft year. Hardly a below average 1OA.

Your opinion maybe, but I do not believe scouts will share your enthusiasm.

2015: McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin, Marner, Strome, Zacha, Barzal
2016: Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi, Tkachuk, Dubois
2017: Patrick, Hischier
2018: Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk
2019: Hughes, Kakko, Byram, Cozens, Dach
2020: Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Raymond, Rossi, Drysdale
2021: Power, Beniers, Eklund, Hughes, Clarke
2022: Wright, Slafkovsky, Cooley, Nemec
2023: Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov, Smith, Benson, Leonard

Bold = Certainly above Celebrini
Italics = Similar tier but likely above Celebrini
Underline = Similar tier but likely below Celebrini

Hence...roughly a #3 to #5 pick in an average draft

 

[macbowes]

Your opinion maybe, but I do not believe scouts will share your enthusiasm.

2015: McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin, Marner, Strome, Zacha, Barzal
2016: Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi, Tkachuk, Dubois
2017: Patrick, Hischier
2018: Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk
2019: Hughes, Kakko, Byram, Cozens, Dach
2020: Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Raymond, Rossi, Drysdale
2021: Power, Beniers, Eklund, Hughes, Clarke
2022: Wright, Slafkovsky, Cooley, Nemec
2023: Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov, Smith, Benson, Leonard

Bold = Certainly above Celebrini
Italics = Similar tier but likely above Celebrini
Underline = Similar tier but likely below Celebrini

Hence...roughly a #3 to #5 pick in an average draft

Guess we'll just have to disagree, I don't think scouts share your pessimism. I don't believe anyone but McDavid, Eichel, Matthews, Dahlin, and Bedard would be regarded as being a better prospect than Celebrini, which is only 5 prospects in 9 drafts, by most scouts. Hence about average 1OA. Most of the names you list aren't even close.

 

[Favin]

Guess we'll just have to disagree, I don't think scouts share your pessimism. I don't believe anyone but McDavid, Eichel, Matthews, Dahlin, and Bedard would be regarded as being a better prospect than Celebrini, which is only 5 prospects in 9 drafts, by most scouts. Hence about average 1OA. Most of the names you list aren't even close.

But those five were not even the top-5 prospects in this window at the time of their draft. Hughes and Lafreniere were probably more highly rated than Eichel...probably on par with Matthews and Dahlin. At least the hype on Hughes from south or border, and hype on Lafreniere from north of border.

I am not pessimistic on Celebrini at all. It is just my interpretation of where he would likely fall in the scouts eyes. If anything, I personally think that NCAA players (especially younger ones) and smaller players are the most often underrated. Whereas bigger players dominating juniors are the most often to be overrated by scouts.

 

[Frk It]

IMO 2024 is a good draft if you are looking for a top 4 defenseman, and it’s a bad draft if you are looking for anything else (relatively speaking).

I continue to be surprised Artamonov does not get more hype in a draft class such as this one. I think the Russians and Finns are kind of the x-factors to the 24 draft, to where you hope they are a lot better than most think.

 

[macbowes]

But those five were not even the top-5 prospects in this window at the time of their draft. Hughes and Lafreniere were probably more highly rated than Eichel...probably on par with Matthews and Dahlin. At least the hype on Hughes from south or border, and hype on Lafreniere from north of border.

I am not pessimistic on Celebrini at all. It is just my interpretation of where he would likely fall in the scouts eyes. If anything, I personally think that NCAA players (especially younger ones) and smaller players are the most often underrated. Whereas bigger players dominating juniors are the most often to be overrated by scouts.

I disagree with this. Neither Hughes, nor Laf, had the hype that any of McD, Eichel, or Matthews had. All three of those guys had size, skill, and in the case of Laf, positional advantage. They were all seen as franchise 1C's. Hughes had detractors due to his size, and Laf had detractors because of his position. Laf was definitely very hyped, especially because of his international performances, but I don't think he would have been drafted ahead of any of those guys. Dahlin had borderline generational hype, between his size, skating, and playing in a mens league. Celebrini is also regarded as a franchise 1C, who will probably be the best player on his NHL team in his prime.