NHL Draft: 2024 VS 2025

[ddlennon]

I guess 2024. I don't think 2025 is that exciting from a team building perspective outside of Martone and maybe Frondell or McQueen. I don't particularly like Hagens, the tiny scoring forward who excels in transition typically underwhelms and he seems like a fairly weak to average 1st overall. Celebrini is an above average 1st overall, but the rest of the lottery in 2024 seem incredibly risky.

I would give 2024 a 6/10 but pretty volatile, and 2025 a 4/10 thus far.

Hagens is a great 2 way player what do you mean scoring forward?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Hagens is a great 2 way player what do you mean scoring forward?

He can't make up his mind. First he said Hagens isn't a good enough scorer. Now he's only a one-way player.

 

[Zarzh]

He can't make up his mind. First he said Hagens isn't a good enough scorer. Now he's only a one-way player.

Hagens is a great 2 way player what do you mean scoring forward?

No, people greatly overvalue non-elite defensive forwards as prospects, especially the small ones. The best thing he can do is grow 2 inches, but defensive development in forwards is not completely linear, particularly those who are limited defensively like Hagens.

His scoring is significantly lower than other American forwards at the same age (despite being a late birthday), the "plays the right way" argument almost never works out positively for top prospects.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

His scoring is lower (not significantly lower) because he has little help. Hughes and Matthews were playing with stars all around them drafted in the first round. Hagens only has Eiserman, who he doesn't even play on a line with. There might not be another NTDP forward from his year drafted in the first round, and only one defenseman is a lock for the first round.

He still leads the USHL in PPG, and those that watch the games will tell you he's one of the best players to ever play at the NTDP.

 

[JFA87-66-99]

How would a ranking of goalies look with both drafts combined?

 

[Kshahdoo]

Other than Celebrini, no one in 2024 stacks up to 2021. I’d take almost everyone in 2021 over their approximate counterpart. Beniers > Eiserman, Clarke > Dickinson, Power > Levshunov, Eklund > Helenius, MacTavish > Lindstrom, Hughes > Buium, etc. I supposed I’d take Catton over Johnson but I was never high on Johnson to begin with (I had him ranked #9 in 2021).

2021 lacked a true 1st overall talent, but the top-9 was excellent. This year has a true #1 talent, and it does have a “everyone is basically equivalent” tier in the same way that the top-9 in 2021 was basically equally valuable, but the 2021 tier is a tier above the 2024 tier almost universally.

Yeah, and Demidov is >>> any of those dudes...

 

[Favin]

My guess...is that they will fall along some like this

2015
2023
2016
2025
2019
2017
2020
2021
2018
2022
2024

2024 will be interesting as bunch of names will enter mix late (a bit like 2017 with a lot of late movement). But compared to other years, its fairly thin, especially at the forward positions. Celebrini is solid, and likely entrenched into top spot in 2024, but also looks to be like typical 3-5 pick for most other years. The next tier of guys (Levshunov, Silayev, Eiserman, Demidov, Dickinson, etc) are likely 8-15 picks in average draft. By about pick 15, most guys in 2nd half of first round will look like typical 2nd rounders (not all, but most). The challenge with 2024 is that its strength is clearly in the defensemen, so it may be a while before we know what we've got. I see it a bit similar to 2018 in 2012, where more defensemen come out of the early rounds.

2025 will look a bit more like 2023 with a strong #1oa in Hagens, following by handful of guys who could be #2s (Frondell, Misa, McQueen, Hensler, etc). The forward crop will look much stronger with many guys with 1st round pedigree making it to 2nd round. The defense looks a little thin after first few guys (Hensler, Schaefer, Tretheway) maybe 4-5 worthy of 1st round (average is about twice that).

(of course, none of this is certain...just my guess at this point)

 

[Gliff]

My guess...is that they will fall along some like this

2015
2023
2016
2025
2019
2017
2020
2021
2018
2022
2024

2024 will be interesting as bunch of names will enter mix late (a bit like 2017 with a lot of late movement). But compared to other years, its fairly thin, especially at the forward positions. Celebrini is solid, and likely entrenched into top spot in 2024, but also looks to be like typical 3-5 pick for most other years. The next tier of guys (Levshunov, Silayev, Eiserman, Demidov, Dickinson, etc) are likely 8-15 picks in average draft. By about pick 15, most guys in 2nd half of first round will look like typical 2nd rounders (not all, but most). The challenge with 2024 is that its strength is clearly in the defensemen, so it may be a while before we know what we've got. I see it a bit similar to 2018 in 2012, where more defensemen come out of the early rounds.

2025 will look a bit more like 2023 with a strong #1oa in Hagens, following by handful of guys who could be #2s (Frondell, Misa, McQueen, Hensler, etc). The forward crop will look much stronger with many guys with 1st round pedigree making it to 2nd round. The defense looks a little thin after first few guys (Hensler, Schaefer, Tretheway) maybe 4-5 worthy of 1st round (average is about twice that).

(of course, none of this is certain...just my guess at this point)

Lol what years would Celebrini be a 3-5 pick outside of 2023 and 2015? Ridiculous to call him a typical 3-5 pick. Looking at 2015-2023, he likely goes #1 more often then later then #3.

 

[Just Linda]

I'd go 25. 24 seems to be a year where a lot of the presumed top 5 picks going into the year just failed to seize the moment (though, I don't watch Russian prospects anymore so Demidov might surprise me).

26 is the year I'm excited about but 25 seems to be stronger for now.

 

[macbowes]

I think people are out to lunch if they think this year is a below average year, and it's certainly not worse than next year. In comparison to recent drafts, this year seems better than 2022, 2021, and 2020. The 2025 draft looks a little weaker than this year, in my opinion. Hagens is a same tier of prospect as Celebrini, so as far as the best prospect is concerned, they are similar. Misa is a high level prospect, but I would be hesitant to call him much better than Demidov. McQueen, and Mortone are interesting, but they are both almost eligible for this draft, and neither are putting up numbers far superior to Lindstrom, or Greentree. Moore and Frondell are also high level athletes, but again, neither are far superior to anyone in this draft. There are several dmen who are interesting, in Smith, Schaefer, Huang, Boumdienne, Hensler, Tretheway, Kotajarvi, and Radivojevic, but again, I don't think any of them are in a clear tier ahead of this years top dmen.

 

[MasterMatt25]

It goes beyond the top 2 though. 2021 was similar to this year in that there was a clear #1 (and 2 in 2021's case) and then like 8 guys who could go in any order after. 2021 was also called weak because there was a gap between the first tier and second.

Look at the top 11 guys taken in 2021. Other then Boucher who was a 20 pick reach, the others have already debuted and are playing well in the NHL or look really good in the AHL like Clarke and Edvinsson. If the Ducks get a chance at a McTavish level player at 3 this year I will be very satisfied with that.

2021 was also a shot in the dark since prospects only played like 20 games that season. It was much harder to scout

 

[Mathieukferland]

For the top 30 or so 2024, better ultimate prize at the top, rest of the forwards outside of number 1 are about even, and 2024 has much better defensemen

 

[Henkka]

Imo:

1. 2023
2. 2025
3. 2024

 

[Dead Coyote]

2025 is probably a better draft overall but to say 2024 is weak or even the weakest draft in years is absurd. Great top 10 with Eiserman, Demidov, Celebrini and whatever d-men go. Lots of great d-men in the draft too. I'm sure we'll see a lot of revised opinions a couple of years from now when guys like Kiviharju and Jiricek are lighting up the NHL. Same kind of thing as with guys like Hutson.

2025 also has a great top 10, but it's too early to say for sure whether they'll be better than 2024, although there might be more skill overall and more top end talent, but it's hard to say. We're two years out, plenty of guys thought Raty and Lambert would go top 5 2 years before their draft too. Same with someone like Sale.\

I think 2025 is good, and I probably like it as much if not more than 2024, but neither really compare to 2023 IMO.

 

[River Meadow]

2025 is a much better and deeper.

Not as deep as 2026 though.

 

[Gliff]

Not as deep as 2026 though.

Just wait until you see 2027.

 

[Peasy]

Honestly I was pretty low on this years draft to start the year but it has definitely grown on me. Lots of players to like that you could get in the top 20.

 

[River Meadow]

Just wait until you see 2027.

2027 will be very strong... however, 2028 is going to blow your mind.

 

[Gliff]

2027 will be very strong... however, 2028 is going to blow your mind.

Disagree. 2028 is clearly the worst draft since 2012.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Disagree. 2028 is clearly the worst draft since 2012.

That would be 2029

 

[River Meadow]

That would be 2029

2030 is going to be pretty solid though

 

[JFA87-66-99]

2030 is going to be pretty solid though

Ha ha lame

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think people over discuss this stuff. Most drafts are very similar when all is said and done.

 

[River Meadow]

Ha ha lame

Your posts-to-likes ratio makes complete sense.

 

[Favin]

Lol what years would Celebrini be a 3-5 pick outside of 2023 and 2015? Ridiculous to call him a typical 3-5 pick. Looking at 2015-2023, he likely goes #1 more often then later then #3.

Going by 'at time of draft'...guys that would likely go ahead of Celebrini....

2015: McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin, Marner
2016: Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi
2017:
2018: Dahlin, Svechnikov
2019: Hughes, Kakko, Byram
2020: Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle
2021: Power
2022:
2023: Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith, Michkov

Really only seeing Celebrini as candidate for 1oa in 2017 (would put Celebrini narrowly ahead of Patrick, Hischier) and 2022 (Celebrini would probably be consensus #1)

So on average....I think calling him a typical #3-5 is fair.