Hi everyone. I’ll spare y’all the personal details, but I watched way less hockey this year than I have in a while, but I’ve been cramming on draft prep for this year and wanted to share my top 10. Overall, I think this is a slightly below average draft (at least as far as the top 10 is concerned), though it’s better than last year’s for sure. As usual, my drafting philosophy emphasizes skill and upside. I don’t see the point in burning a first round pick on a player who might turn into a middle six role player when you can usually acquire an already developed player of that sort for less.
1) Rasmus Dahlin
Head and shoulders ahead of everyone else in this class. There’s not much to say about him that hasn’t already been said, and there’s zero chance the Coyotes walk away with him on Friday, so who cares.
2) Andrei Svechnikov
Gamebreaking scoring wing. Total package, with strength, speed and skill to burn. The Hossa comps seem legit. Also a lock to go before the Coyotes pick, so not worth discussing much here.
3) Filip Zadina
Now it starts to get interesting. I don’t think Zadina is a lock to go 3rd (Kotkaniemi seems just as likely) or even 4th (where neither Hughes nor Tkachuk would be surprising), but I have him as the third best prospect still. Zadina has the tools I want from a high end scoring wing: terrific skill, a heavy shot, and a great motor. What really stands out to me (and what makes me confident he’ll translate well into the NHL) is that he can score in a lot of different ways. He can rip a blistering, accurate wrister past goalies from distance, but he has the speed, skill and footwork to dangle past slower defenders and the power to blow past weaker ones. He has decent size but, more importantly, the willingness to get himself into traffic, either to shoot it himself or distribute the puck. He has first-line wing potential for sure, and I think he’s ready to play sheltered minutes at the NHL level already.
4) Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Kotkaniemi could conceivably go third or fall past the Coyotes pick. He’s a sturdy but very skilled center with above average hockey sense and a pretty advanced game overall for his age. It’s very difficult to get the puck away from him. He can slow down the play and has the vision to find open wings, and he possesses a pretty heavy shot of his own. I think he tops out as a very good two-way second line center along the lines of a Paul Stastny, but he has shown some flashes of potential beyond that, maybe closer to a Staal. He’s not the sexiest pick, but his heady game projects well to the next level, and he’s probably ready for a limited role this year.
5) Oliver Wahlstrom
Poor man’s Auston Matthews, with power, skill and the best shot in the dradt. Easily the best shot in the draft. I’ve gone back and forth but think he projects better as a wing, where he can use his hockey sense and high motor to get himself into scoring areas. He could probably be ready for NHL action later this season, but more likely he’s at least a year away. He should be a dangerous finisher at even strength and on the powerplay and would be a great complement to a heady playmaker like Keller or Strome.
6) Quinn Hughes
The size is a concern, but he has the smarts and skating ability to compensate. Just an absolute joy to watch. He can be a real gamechanger with his skill and mobility, but he has the elite level hockey sense to know when (and when not) to pinch. I think he’s at least a year or two away, and when he’s ready, his coach will need to deploy him carefully to limit his exposure to bigger forwards, but that does not mean he’s a defensive liability. His positioning is strong, his movement in all directions gives him terrific recovery ability, and his anticipation and stick skills allow him to disrupt scoring chances. He excels at getting the puck moving toward the offensive zone efficiently.
7) Dominik Bokk
His defensive game needs some work and he’s a relatively raw player overall, but he’s worth rolling the dice on this early in a draft lacking in top line upside. He can terrorize defenses with his puck skills and excels as both a playmaker and a triggerman. Bokk is an endlessly skilled forward with solid skating ability, but consistency has been an issue. Whether he sorts that out will be the difference between being Martin Havlat or Marian Gaborik. I’d bet on him figuring it out.
8) Brady Tkachuk
The center version of his brother Matt. His physical game is incredibly advanced for his age, but his skill leaves a bit to be desired. Still, he has the versatility to play up and down the lineup and should make any line better, even if he’s not the best player on the line, and he has the maturity to play in the NHL this year. He’s a safe pick at this spot.
9) Serron Noel
Definitely a project, but he has the size and skill to dominate someday. He should at least be a solid middle-six goal scorer, but his potential is Wheelerish. Not worth drafting unless you are comfortable giving him at least three years to marinate before being expected to contribute much (or if you are comfortable with him topping out as Dustin Penner). He’s one of the youngest and biggest players in the draft (and he could still be growing), so it’s no surprise he’s a little inconsistent. But as he fills out and his conditioning and coordination improve, he could be a real terror for defenses.
10) Adam Boqvist
Boqvist has looked pretty raw against older players, but he was genuinely dominant against his peers this year. That makes him a bit of a project, but the potential is tantalizing (and he’s pretty young for this draft, too). He doesn’t have the defensive polish that Hughes has, but his puck-moving ability is off the charts. I’m not bold enough to project him as a Karlsson-level offensive threat (he doesn’t have the shooting prowess), but he plays a similarly aggressive style otherwise. He can be a dangerous second pairing/top powerplay unit weapon.
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Anyway, I don’t really plan to be posting much more than I have, so PM me if you want to stay in touch.