Post-Game Talk: NHL Draft 2017 | Final Thoughts? What's Your Grade?

[Duke16]

Really happy with the draft and not gonna criticize any picks, but when Safin fell hard I would've loved:
1-17: Liljegren
2-59: Rasanen
4-110: Safin
4-124: Scott (hope he makes it from 110 to here)

Happy with the way it turned out and I understand that guys fall, but Safin is someone I was really high on and I couldn't think of a good reason for his fall. I had him as an early-mid 2nd rounder

 

[Daisy Jane]

It seems some guys can clean their skating up and improve some guys just don't
I'm not sure why that is though

I'd imagine if we're picking these guys were having our skating instructor take a good look at them and giving a yay or nay about how "fixable" their issues are

yah. like I get there are TERRIBLE Skaters, and people have skating issues but i think sometimes maybe you just need to have a skating coach, and we've got a good one. not saying she can do miracles or anything like that but that wouldn't really be a reason to go "nah, not drafting them." or that draft pick is bad.

 

[Daisy Jane]

An aside: By what metric have we concluded that the Leafs have a skating coach that stands out from the crowd? Is there any one Leafs' draft pick with recognizable skating deficiencies who has now made it in the NHL because his skating improved that much?

As far as I'm concerned, this is 90% on the player to do well-established drills over and over and over. Plus the dry land training.

Freddy has been looking a lot better every year since we drafted him in terms of his skating.
there was that one time JVR looked faster than the wind and Lupul looked really good before he completely broke down and both really said that Barb really contributed to their notable differences on the ice.

Like I don't think there's any true metric - plus yah, it's like you said, doing drills, etc, and the dry land training, but i know a lot of players (not just leafs one) saying that their NHL skating coach (which is generally an Olympic figure skater now a days ) made a difference in how they use their edges, and push off etc.

so it's just an extra ingredient in thei training.

 

[SprDaVE]

Goaltender Antoine Samuel was invited to the Leafs development camp.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=213706

edit:

Defensemen Marc-Olivier Duquette and Reagan O'Grady were also invited.

 

[Stigma]

I'm changing my grade from B+ to A-. Mostly because of Gordeev.

This was posted in the Gordeev thread. Take a look at this interview with his coach if you haven't seen it already:

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

This guy is a huge boom/bust prospect! I'm starting to love this pick.

To recap:

-Great skater for 6'6' (very, very rare)
-Moved from wing to D-man
-Had to learn a lot in one year, but finished very strongly
-Coach thinks he has natural offensive instincts - will get better
-Coach thinks the bad decisions he made early in the season have already lessened
-Good puck mover
-Character guy
-From Toronto and cried when Leafs took him (I know lots of posters don't think this is a factor, but I'd argue it is)

Now that's a 5th round pick.

 

[A4T1L6]

Anyone know when and where the development camp is

 

[Mess]

You seem to be right that the Leafs drafting philosophy changed somewhat from focus mostly on skill to more focus placed on size in the past 3 years. One must give management credit for having the confidence to move somewhat against the trends and against the grain compared to what one is generally seeing in the NHL right now. Looking at the opening day rosters of the league (for 2016-2017), one sees Toronto already fairly high up the chart, with the 10th largest team in the league (larger than each of Pittsburgh, Nashville, Ottawa and Anaheim - the final 4 teams this year). Of note, Pittsburgh and Chicago come in at 27 and 29 in terms of league size and have accounted for 6 of the past 9 championships. Especially on defence, those 2 teams have been applauded for their d-corps exhibiting superior mobility.

This focus on mobility from the blueline seems to be echoed very often, in both the NHL circles and even in junior. If one looks at Canada's world junior selection, they also seem to be selecting based on mobility (rightly or wrongly), with the top pairing players usually possessing strong skating and puck skills (like Thomas Chabot this year, or Toronto's Morgan Rielly), a sharp contrast from Luke Schenn/Marc Staal/Keith Aulie types. This year Nashville was applauded for their strong D-core, many anointing them the best in the league, in large part due to their phenomenal mobility.

So, while Liljegren exhibits these qualities, seeing Hunter draft players like Rasanen, Gordeev, Middleton and Mattinen whose major weaknesses for the most part include skating (but strengths include size), one sees Leaf comparables likely more in line stylistically with say Mike Komisarek or Luke Schenn than say Morgan Rielly or Jake Gardiner.

From that point, larger, poorer skating blueliners seems to go against the modern trend. These trends tend to be cyclical, so it remains to be seen if Toronto is ahead or behind the curve. However, I also look at the draft and the prospect pool similar to you in that I look at the roster, analyze what is missing, and see what is coming down the pipeline to fill it (if nothing, then free agency or trades are required). Toronto has large holes on the right side of its D, and Liljegren and Rasanen both offer skill sets that few (likely none) currently in the organization offer. For that reason, I am excited for the first 2 picks and likely not familiar enough to judge or predict the long-term outcome of the rest.

You're not wrong and I certainly can't dispute your points here as my position isn't too much different.

The only thing I would add is that its not just about size but how that size plays.. JVR may be big but plays soft, and while on average Leafs might be bigger than Anaheim no would say players like Perry and Getzalf aren't only big, and skilled but have bite to their games to utilize that size to their advantages. Leafs can'[t minimize that by tossing out JVR against them and feel that levels the scale advantage of size here.

Hunter arrived in TO 3 years ago with a scouting reputation to find talent and so a lot of faith is placed in him to prove that ability. The expectation bar was set high and so far while I'm hopeful I'm also cautious as well, as his 3 drafts to date haven't outwardly supported that reputation of his yet. IMO

This year also many questions still as to upside of a lot of picks, but it appears on the surface as you mentioned he drafted for need and if that works then the projecting Leafs defense down the road.

Rielly --- Liljegrin
Gardiner -- Zaitsev
Dermott -- Rasanen

If he can get his 2 top picks from this draft become part of Leafs top 6 group going forward then it will be viewed as success, particularly if it produces a top pairing RHD that the team is looking for and a need at present.

 

[bobermay]

You realize that you're admitting that drafting small players with skill was a successful strategy and that drafting giant defensemen is not, right?



The Predators' biggest defenseman is Mattias Ekholm (6'4). Josi 6'1, Subban 6'0, Ellis 5'10, Irwin 6'1, Weber 5'11. The Pens' D is on the bigger side with Dumoulin 6'4, Hainsey 6'3, Maattaa/Schultz 6'2, Cole 6'1, Letang/Pouliot 6'0 and Daley 5'11. I think most people would prefer Nashville's corps. Yes, it would be great to get an Ekholm some day but the odds look pretty slim. I don't recall Hainsey or Dumoulin being drafted to be bruisers either. Then if you look at forwards, Malkin is 6'3 and pretty much everyone else on the Pens is around 6'0. Same with the Preds - Johansen's 6'3, Neal 6'2 and the rest around 6'0 or smaller.

I don't see any compelling evidence that teams need to stock up on 6'3+ hulks. In fact, quite the opposite - they're rare throughout the league and most big and skilled players you can think of were drafted high precisely for their combination of size and skill. There's a Chara and Parayko here and there but most teams haven't drafted a guy like that in decades. If you look back there's about a 20+ year history of GMs selecting big kids - particularly defensemen - with questionable skating and skills who rarely ever turn out. It was particularly bad around the mid 2000s and there's little sign that the odds have changed since then.

To comment on the bolded, we have no clue whether our 2015 "skilled' focus draft will be any more succesful than our 2016 or 2017 drafts...


Also, its quite short-sited to look at current contending teams and project what the NHL will be like in 5-10 years down the line. The NHL is constantly changing... what is effective now may not be effective tomorrow.

In the last 10 years, teams like Anaheim, Boston, LA x 2 all had big, bruising players and played tough.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that there is more than 1 way to skin a cat, and more than one way to win in the NHL.

Now, I'm not trying to suggest skating isn't important. But for the most part, we HAVE been drafting competent skaters.

 

[Mess]

In my opinion Leafs grade/drafting should be done on a Bell curve against the rest of the teams to be a grade then based on all teams results.

If everyone from #1 NJ to Leafs #17 get an "A" for drafting it doesn't mean much.

For me when I see Vegas for example and they use their first 4 X selections on CODY GLASS & NICK SUZUKI & ERIK BRANNSTROM & NICOLAS HAGUE (the equivalent of 4 X 1st round talent) that can all be seen in a few years being apart of their NHL team, then that is a confirmed "A" grade for their draft if those players reach their potential.

If then my Leafs pick TIMOTHY LILJEGREN a player with high skills but struggled mightily last year with illness and play and fell to the Leafs as a result, and even if he is successful and Leafs are getting a "A" for their draft of 2017.

To me it seems Vegas "A" grade and Leafs "A" for 2017 seems Leafs pales in comparison and a bit disingenuous as being equal in value, unless some Bell curve is used to measure potential future NHLers and their level on impact is factored in. Seems like Vegas has 4 X potential Aces verses Leafs 1 X Ace here.

Also if you give each Leaf players drafted an individual grade and say Lil gets an A and a couple others get B's and 3 X C's and 1X D for their 7 picks then using the simple average to measure draft class you're looking at a C+ range not an A unless you weight the 1st rounder as 80% of the grade and all the other 6 players = 20%.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Shotgun approach with these big defenders in the last two drafts is the best way to think it. All Hunter has to do is hit a homer on one of them and he looks brilliant.

They certainly like their skill in the first round evidently.

 

[cookie]

If the huge defensemen we've picked can work on their skating and puck skills to the extent that they can play and not look out of place in Babcock's quick-tempo system, we're going to have pretty good NHLers by that point. Picking these boom-bust players may go against convention, but when we do get a hit, there's a huge chance of an "out of the park", home run kind of player. I think we've been missing that type of thinking in previous years where the latter round hits that we did get were of players with limited upside.

 

[socko]

Well hopefully the Leafs didn't draft a bunch of Olli Maattas. Skating does matter.

 

[Territory]

After the 2nd round you have ZERO idea how any of the players will pan out.

You pick a guy who doesn't score and has size in the 6th round? Well he could turn into Josh Manson.

Pick a big physical defenseman in the 3rd round? Hey, he could end up being Colton Parayko.

My point is, just because some twitter geniuses are sad the Leafs didn't pick a small skilled guy in the 5th round doesn't mean Hunter/scouts didn't see some potential NHL upside in the players. How often are legit amazing NHLers who were drafted late are obvious picks at that slot? I bet if the Leafs picked Josh Manson in his draft year the twitter scouts would be crying about it.

Not all late picks pan out. If even just one of them works out and turns into a big time D it is a success.

 

[Mess]

The selections of Rasanen & Gordeev appear to be looking to draft a Roman Polak type Dman, and getting the big, physical presence on the D.

Liljegren has a lot of questions but with unlimited potential is a swing for the fences boom or bust with the risk/reward at #17 outweighing the potential bust potential for a player expected on talent to go much higher.

If he is the Leafs minny version of Erik Karlsson lite down the road it will be a blessing in disguise that his illness and struggles and tossed around from team to team last year resulted in Leafs a playoff team getting a potential top 10 pick on talent still. Cake and eating it too proposition right there.

Even if he busts it will be seen a gamble worth taking in the moment.

For me personally this could be a turning point moment in Leafs history in that the need for a top pairing RHD is known by everyone, and if Liljegren pick succeeds it lowers/removes the potential of Leafs feeling pressured they may need to part with a Marner/Nylander in trade to acquire a young Dman in trade.

Liljegren's success therefore may directly also impact the future of Mitch and Willie.

 

[theIceWookie]

You're not wrong and I certainly can't dispute your points here as my position isn't too much different.

The only thing I would add is that its not just about size but how that size plays.. JVR may be big but plays soft, and while on average Leafs might be bigger than Anaheim no would say players like Perry and Getzalf aren't only big, and skilled but have bite to their games to utilize that size to their advantages. Leafs can'[t minimize that by tossing out JVR against them and feel that levels the scale advantage of size here.

Hunter arrived in TO 3 years ago with a scouting reputation to find talent and so a lot of faith is placed in him to prove that ability. The expectation bar was set high and so far while I'm hopeful I'm also cautious as well, as his 3 drafts to date haven't outwardly supported that reputation of his yet. IMO

This year also many questions still as to upside of a lot of picks, but it appears on the surface as you mentioned he drafted for need and if that works then the projecting Leafs defense down the road.

Rielly --- Liljegrin
Gardiner -- Zaitsev
Dermott -- Rasanen

If he can get his 2 top picks from this draft become part of Leafs top 6 group going forward then it will be viewed as success, particularly if it produces a top pairing RHD that the team is looking for and a need at present.

Are you just not all tha thigh on Dermott, Rosen, Borgman, Nielsen or any of the other lower round pick guys?

 

[Mess]

Are you just not all tha thigh on Dermott, Rosen, Borgman, Nielsen or any of the other lower round pick guys?

Dermott was listed in the group.

Every player prospect drafted or signed comes with an evaluation as to where they might fit in the roster, and what their ceiling and floor might be.

When they drafted Nielsen they likely pictured him potentially on the 2nd pairing beside Gardiner, but then when they went out and landed Zaitsev via UFA post draft class of 2015 and things changed, even more so now that they re-signed him long-term the picture has changed. Nielsen being blocked by current roster decisions, that create roadblocks for prospects, unless things change again.

Previously undrafted players like Rosen and Borgman are wildcards and free assets outside the draft, but the overall success rate of these types of signings is not that high league wide. However Leafs are hoping for the best, and have probable projections for them also.

That said the more Zaitsev, Rosen and Borgman make it, the lower Hunter's drafting odds off success become by the process of pushing own draft picks further down depth charts and less opportunity for them and less need for the organization.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Shotgun approach with these big defenders in the last two drafts is the best way to think it. All Hunter has to do is hit a homer on one of them and he looks brilliant.

They certainly like their skill in the first round evidently.

Yessir. They did it with small undersized skill forwards earlier too

 

[weems]

Seems pretty obvious the Leafs are swinging for the fences on some huge D who they hope can turn out. If just one of these guys pans out if can totally change the outlook of your team (having one of these monsters on your team is rare, especially in todays super fast game).

Middleton
Rasanen
Gordeev
Greenway
Mattinen

 

[SEER]

I thought they made some pretty wise picks, especially in the later rounds..
Going to be quite a competition for D-spots on both the Marlies and Leafs..

This video montage has brief goal highlights for all of the
Toronto Maple Leafs 2017 NHL Draft Prospects ..

The video player order goes from #7 down to #1.. Imo..., we had a real and surprising Draft.. Congrats to the Scouting Staff..!

Draft Boogie: All Seven Toronto Maple Leafs 2017 Draft Picks/Prospects (HD)

​

 

[Liminality]

Seems pretty obvious the Leafs are swinging for the fences on some huge D who they hope can turn out. If just one of these guys pans out if can totally change the outlook of your team (having one of these monsters on your team is rare, especially in todays super fast game).

Middleton
Rasanen
Gordeev
Greenway
Mattinen

Definitely, this kind of feels like the rush to find the big power forward when Bruins won with Lucic. Just need one to hit.

 

[weems]

Definitely, this kind of feels like the rush to find the big power forward when Bruins won with Lucic. Just need one to hit.

We have such an amazing core now (Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, Liljegren) that we can afford to take some home run cuts in the middle rounds on certain types of prospects. If they hit thats amazing, if they miss not the end of the world seeing our core is strong and we already have some nice depth pieces in the pipeline.

I really like the Rasanen selection. He's prolly the best longshot project we've taken because he's already produced in a tough league so that shows hes actually already a player and not some guy whos weak player but possibly high upside.

 

[The_Chosen_One]

I'm thinking a B. Maybe towards the lower-end of things, but I think we have a pretty solid prospect pool.

Now speaking of other teams, I like Nashville. David Farrance is a defenseman that thrives on fantastic passing. Analytics tells us that puck movement is supplanting puck rushing among D ( even though Karlsson, the best in the NHL, is the latter) and I eventually see that Lidstrom/ Leech/ Pronger-esque guy entering the NHL. while I doubt it is Farrance, I tend to be biased towards these type of defensemen. Others I like include Eeli Tolvanen, Jacob Paquette ( as I argued in the past), Tomas Vomacka ( quite athletic, strong skating helps him control the crease) and Grant Mismash ( got it all but the motivation).

 

[Slyfox]

I'm thinking a B. Maybe towards the lower-end of things, but I think we have a pretty solid prospect pool.

Now speaking of other teams, I like Nashville. David Farrance is a defenseman that thrives on fantastic passing. Analytics tells us that puck movement is supplanting puck rushing among D ( even though Karlsson, the best in the NHL, is the latter) and I eventually see that Lidstrom/ Leech/ Pronger-esque guy entering the NHL. while I doubt it is Farrance, I tend to be biased towards these type of defensemen. Others I like include Eeli Tolvanen, Jacob Paquette ( as I argued in the past), Tomas Vomacka ( quite athletic, strong skating helps him control the crease) and Grant Mismash ( got it all but the motivation).

I agree puck movement is more important than puck rushing. Look at Gardiner vs Rielly. Gardiner's puck movement allows us to enter/exit zones and have sustained offensive pressure. Where as Rielly a lot of times would rush the puck into the offensive zone alone and would be forced to dump and chase resulting in a loss of possession. Controlled zone entries > Rush/dump and chase

 

[Hurt]

Shotgun approach with these big defenders in the last two drafts is the best way to think it. All Hunter has to do is hit a homer on one of them and he looks brilliant.

They certainly like their skill in the first round evidently.

Just one, Berty. Guy will look like a genius for picking a Parayko-esque player later in the draft. We'd be VERY fortunate if that were to happen, though.

Well hopefully the Leafs didn't draft a bunch of Olli Maattas. Skating does matter.

I'd argue that skating is probably one of the most important skills in the NHL right now but you can definitely teach skating.

Seems pretty obvious the Leafs are swinging for the fences on some huge D who they hope can turn out. If just one of these guys pans out if can totally change the outlook of your team (having one of these monsters on your team is rare, especially in todays super fast game).

Middleton
Rasanen
Gordeev
Greenway
Mattinen

I'm hoping that Greenway hits. Dude can already skate, has skill, is mean and is a big boy. Looks like his school favours the older dudes but that's College Hockey for you:

Name DOB Age Position Games Goals Assists Points PIM
Jake Bunz 1995-04-05 21 D 9 0 0 0 4
Jake Linhart 1996-02-17 20 D 36 6 17 23 18
Patrick Sexton 1994-04-19 22 D 13 0 1 1 14
Tim Davison 1994-03-20 22 D 35 1 14 15 25
Peter Tischke 1996-01-03 20 D 35 3 6 9 34
J.D. Greenway 1998-04-27 18 D 34 1 6 7 87

 

[The_Chosen_One]

I agree puck movement is more important than puck rushing. Look at Gardiner vs Rielly. Gardiner's puck movement allows us to enter/exit zones and have sustained offensive pressure. Where as Rielly a lot of times would rush the puck into the offensive zone alone and would be forced to dump and chase resulting in a loss of possession. Controlled zone entries > Rush/dump and chase

While I agree with the developing hypothesis, I think Rielly's elite skating and offensive instincts will translate into a puck rushing #1D. His talent is undeniable ( hey, where's Diceman when you need him?), but I'd like to see a more Kaberle/ Lidstrom presence in the back end.

Interestingly, Gardiner while a rusher can be a puck moving guy. That hybrid playing style sort of reminds me of Keith who is definitely more of a rusher. While I'm not sure if Babs tying up Rielly in that manner is a good idea, I really hope they can bring a puck stabilizer RHD to help him out.