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NFL: NFC Playoff Picture

misterchainsaw

misterchainsaw

Preparing PHASE TWO!
Nov 3, 2005
31,848
3,652
Rochester, NY
Suddenly the NFC has become the more interesting conference even if you take out the crappy NFC South race. The East (PHI, DAL) and South (TB, CAR, NO) are still up for grabs, while PHI, MIN, DAL, and SF are all still alive for the #1 seed, though Philly needs just one win or one loss from each of the other 3 teams to clinch. Meanwhile, Seattle holds a tiebreaker over Detroit, but not Green Bay (except at 8-9 where Seattle loses to the Jets), giving them great interest in the week 18 game between those two teams.

AFTER WEEK 16: (x-Clinched playoff spot, y-clinched division)
1. x-Philadelphia - 13-2
2. y-Minnesota - 12-3
3. y-San Francisco - 11-4 (Won NFC West)
4. Tampa Bay - 7-8 (Leads NFC South)
5. x-Dallas - 11-4
6. NY Giants- 8-6-1
7. Washington - 7-7-1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. Seattle - 7-8 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over DET)
9. Detroit - 7-8 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over GB)
10. Green Bay - 7-8
11. Carolina - 6-9 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over NO)
12. New Orleans - 6-9
ELIMINATED: Chicago, Arizona, LA Rams, Atlanta

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Philadelphia controls its own destiny for the first round bye.
- Tampa Bay controls its own destiny for the NFC South.
- Carolina controls its own destiny for the NFC South.
- Dallas controls its own destiny for a wild card birth
- The NY Giants control its own destiny for a wild card birth.
- Washington controls its own destiny for a wild card birth

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 17:
- Tampa Bay will lose control of its own destiny for the NFC South with a loss
- Carolina will lose control of its own destiny for the NFC South with a loss
- Washington will lose control of its own destiny for the playoffs with a loss and any of a SEA, DET, or GB win.
- Seattle will gain control of its own destiny for the playoffs with a win, WSH loss, and GB loss.
- Detroit will gain control of its own destiny for the playoffs with a win, WSH loss, and SEA loss.
- Green Bay will gain control of its own destiny for the playoffs with a win and a WSH loss.

CLINCHING OR ELIMINATION SCENARIOS IN WEEK 17:
- Philadelphia will clinch the top seed in the playoffs with a win OR all of DAL, PHI, and MIN loss.
- Tampa Bay will clinch the NFC South with a win.
- The NY Giants will clinch a playoff spot with a win OR any of the following: (1)a WSH and SEA loss, (2)a WSH, GB, and DET loss, or (3)a DET, GB, and SEA loss
- Washington will clinch a playoff spot with a win, GB loss, DET loss, and SEA loss.

- New Orleans is eliminated from NFC South contention with a loss or a TB win
- New Orleans is eliminated from wild card contention with a loss, WSH win or both a GB and DET win.
- Carolina is eliminated from NFC South and playoff contention with a loss.
- Green Bay is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss and either a WSH or DET win.
- Detroit is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss and a WSH win.
- Seattle is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss and either (1)a WSH win or (2)a GB and DET win.
- Washington is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, GB win, and DET win.
 
Last edited:
misterchainsaw

misterchainsaw

Preparing PHASE TWO!
Nov 3, 2005
31,848
3,652
Rochester, NY
Not going to do a full update with one week left, but here's the relevant information.

Tampa Bay is locked into the 4 seed, and the NY Giants are locked into the 6th seed.
If Philly wins, they are #1 and Dallas is #5.
- If the 49ers win OR the Vikings lose, SF is #2, Minnesota is #3.​
- If the 49ers lose AND the Vikings win, MIN is #2, SF is #3.​

If Philly loses and Dallas wins, Dallas wins the AFC East and Philly is the 5th seed.
- If the 49ers also win, they are #1, Dallas is #2, and Minnesota is #3​
- If the 49ers lose and the Vikings win, Dallas is #1, Minnesota is #2, and San Fran is #3​
- If both the 49ers and Vikings lose, Dallas is #1, SF is #2, and MIN is #3.​

If Philly and Dallas both lose, Philly wins the AFC East and Dallas is #5
- Use the above scenarios swapping Dallas with Philadelphia in all cases.​

If Green Bay wins, they are #7.
If Detroit wins and Seattle loses, Detroit is #7
If Detroit wins and Seatle wins, Seattle is #7.

Ties are the same as a win for Detroit, Philly, and Minnesota.
Ties are the same as a loss for San Fran, Green Bay, Dallas, and Seattle
 
Last edited:

StreetHawk

Registered User
Sep 30, 2017
26,097
9,685
Eagles vs a Giants team with nothing to play for. Expect to see a few key guys rested.
Cowboys face a commanders team that is eliminated from contention.
49ers play the hapless Cardinals.
Vikings play the Bears who are in contention for the first pick with a loss and a Houston win.
Bucs are locked in and resting starters in week 18.
Packers control their destiny.
Seattle needs to win and the Pack to lose
Lions need to beat the Packers on the road in frigid GB and for Seattle to lose vs Rams.
A GB/Det tie means that Seattle is in with a win. Hawks lose then the Lions are in.
 
LightningStorm

LightningStorm

Lightning/Mets/Vikings
Dec 19, 2008
3,076
2,065
Pacific NW, USA
StreetHawk said:
Eagles vs a Giants team with nothing to play for. Expect to see a few key guys rested.
Cowboys face a commanders team that is eliminated from contention.
49ers play the hapless Cardinals.
Vikings play the Bears who are in contention for the first pick with a loss and a Houston win.
Bucs are locked in and resting starters in week 18.
Packers control their destiny.
Seattle needs to win and the Pack to lose
Lions need to beat the Packers on the road in frigid GB and for Seattle to lose vs Rams.
A GB/Det tie means that Seattle is in with a win. Hawks lose then the Lions are in.
Click to expand...
It'll be interesting to see who plays and rests their starters week 18. My predictions:

Giants at Eagles
Eagles are fighting to hang onto #1, so they play them. Giants are locked into #6, so they rest them. Easy win for the Eagles here.

Cardinals at 49ers
49ers are playing to hold onto the #2 seed and potentially #1 should the Eagles lose, so they play them against a lowly Cards team with Murray out.

Bucs at Falcons
Bucs are locked into #4. Definitely resting them.

Here's 2 games where their approach could go either way:

Cowboys at Commanders
Cowboys could still win the East with an Eagles loss and be #1 with a SF loss on top of that. But due to how unlikely both events are against the lowly Cards and a Giants team resting, does Dallas simply accept the #5 seed and rest up for their game in Tampa the following week?

Vikings at Bears
After falling to #3 yesterday, do the Vikings try regaining the #2 seed? Or do they concede Arizona beating SF is unlikely and accept and rest up for a home game against the Giants? As a Vikings fan a part of me wants us to rest up with all the injuries to our OL.
 

StreetHawk

Registered User
Sep 30, 2017
26,097
9,685
LightningStorm said:
It'll be interesting to see who plays and rests their starters week 18. My predictions:

Giants at Eagles
Eagles are fighting to hang onto #1, so they play them. Giants are locked into #6, so they rest them. Easy win for the Eagles here.

Cardinals at 49ers
49ers are playing to hold onto the #2 seed and potentially #1 should the Eagles lose, so they play them against a lowly Cards team with Murray out.

Bucs at Falcons
Bucs are locked into #4. Definitely resting them.

Here's 2 games where their approach could go either way:

Cowboys at Commanders
Cowboys could still win the East with an Eagles loss and be #1 with a SF loss on top of that. But due to how unlikely both events are against the lowly Cards and a Giants team resting, does Dallas simply accept the #5 seed and rest up for their game in Tampa the following week?

Vikings at Bears
After falling to #3 yesterday, do the Vikings try regaining the #2 seed? Or do they concede Arizona beating SF is unlikely and accept and rest up for a home game against the Giants? As a Vikings fan a part of me wants us to rest up with all the injuries to our OL.
Click to expand...

And to play out the WC3 it’s either GB, Sea, Det in that order of who controls their destiny. That’s who the 2 seed plays. At 2, you are leery of Rodgers over Smith and Goff. GB D has been better than the other 2. GB has a run game and ARod as an underdog. Not sure getting 2 seed is the best option for WC weekend. Better to take the 3 and play the Giants.

SF has to play to get a shot at the bye. Vikings can’t get a bye so doesn’t matter if they are 2 or 3 in WC round. Might be better to be 3 if it’s GB who qualifies and vs Det at home in the cold vs a dome team, I like GB’s chances.

Dallas is in tough given that the giants should rest guys. So hard to see the giants beating the eagles in week 18. And that their most likely opponent TB will also rest guys and be ready to play in WC week with a rested Brady.
 
TheGreenTBer

TheGreenTBer

shut off the power while I take a big shit
Apr 30, 2021
9,165
10,692
StreetHawk said:
And to play out the WC3 it’s either GB, Sea, Det in that order of who controls their destiny. That’s who the 2 seed plays. At 2, you are leery of Rodgers over Smith and Goff. GB D has been better than the other 2. GB has a run game and ARod as an underdog. Not sure getting 2 seed is the best option for WC weekend. Better to take the 3 and play the Giants.

SF has to play to get a shot at the bye. Vikings can’t get a bye so doesn’t matter if they are 2 or 3 in WC round. Might be better to be 3 if it’s GB who qualifies and vs Det at home in the cold vs a dome team, I like GB’s chances.

Dallas is in tough given that the giants should rest guys. So hard to see the giants beating the eagles in week 18. And that their most likely opponent TB will also rest guys and be ready to play in WC week with a rested Brady.
Click to expand...
I don't think anyone wants to play the Packers right now.

Well, except SF.
 
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NJDevs26

NJDevs26

Once upon a time...
Mar 21, 2007
67,397
31,706
Part of me just wants to see Philly shit the bed and wind up getting punted out by Tampa in the first round for the hilarity that would ensue, but I'd rather see Dallas get punted out by the Brady Bunch.
 
LightningStorm

LightningStorm

Lightning/Mets/Vikings
Dec 19, 2008
3,076
2,065
Pacific NW, USA
Lions/Packers on SNF is a disgrace. If the Seahawks win their earlier game, the Lions are eliminated and have nothing to play for. This completely screws over the Seahawks and potentially gifts the Packers a playoff spot.
 
Reality Check

Reality Check

Registered User
May 28, 2008
16,752
2,534
Minnesota is either reaching the Super Bowl (if not winning it all) or losing in their first playoff game.

I see no other way.
 
Blitzkrug

Blitzkrug

Registered User
Sep 17, 2013
25,785
7,633
Winnipeg
TheGreenTBer said:
They're definitely not winning the SB with that defense.
Click to expand...
We've seen weirder. Remember the 2017 Falcons? If i recall, their defense was largely dogshit for the first like 12 games of the season.

Then for whatever reason, down the stretch and into January they became elite. Shutdown the Seahawks and then embarrassed Rodgers in the NFC title game. Hell by all accounts their performance in the Super Bowl should have been enough to put a bow on that game.
 
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