NFL: NFC Playoff Picture

[What the Faulk]

Thr Falcons will lose in NO and Carolina should destroy the Bucs in Charlotte. The NFL doesn't want a team resting their starters for Week 17 SNF but the Saints should beat Tampa that week which would lock Carolina into the 5 seed. The only way I see this game as SNF is if the South is on the line, which it won't be.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Falcons are winning out.

 

[misterchainsaw]

ENTERING WEEK 16: (x - Clinched playoff spot, y- Clinched Division, Y- Clinched 1st round bye, z- clinched home field advantage) Barring all ties.

Y-1. Philadelphia 12-2
y-2. Minnesota 11-3
3. Los Angeles 10-4 (Wins H2H tiebreaker with New Orleans for #3 seed)
4. New Orleans 10-4 (Wins H2H tiebreaker with Carolina for NFC South lead)
5. Carolina 10-4
6. Atlanta 9-5 (Wins H2H tiebreaker with Seattle)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7. Detroit 8-6 (Leads Conference Record tiebreaker with Seattle and Dallas)
8. Seattle 8-6 (Leads Strength of victory tiebreaker with Dallas)
9. Dallas 8-6

All others are eliminated.



Controls own destiny for #1 seed: Philadelphia
- Philadelphia will continue to control their own destiny for the #1 seed entering week 16 regardless of week 15 results
Clinching Scenarios:
- Philadelphia can clinch the #1 seed with a win or a MIN loss
Teams eliminated from #1 seed contention: Dallas, Detroit, Seattle, Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans, Los Angeles
- Seattle is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss or a PHI win
- Atlanta is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss or a PHI win
- Carolina is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss or a PHI win
- New Orleans is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a PHI win or a loss and a LAR win.
- Los Angeles is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss or a PHI win.
- Minnesota is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss and a PHI win.

Has clinched 1st round bye: Philadelphia
Controls own destiny for 1st round bye: Minnesota
- Minnesota loses control of their own destiny for a first round bye with a loss and a CAR win.
- Carolina gains control of their own destiny for a first round bye with a win, MIN loss, NO loss, and LAR loss.
Clinching Scenarios:
- Minnesota clinches a first round bye with a win and a CAR loss.
Teams eliminated from 1st round bye contention: Dallas, Detroit, Atlanta, Seattle
- New Orleans is eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss or a MIN win
- Los Angeles is eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss or a MIN win
- Carolina is eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss combined with a MIN, NO, or LA win.

Has clinched division: Philadelphia, Minnesota
Clinching Scenarios:
- Los Angeles clinches the NFC West with a win or a SEA loss
- New Orleans clinches the NFC South with a win and a CAR loss
Controls own destiny for division: Atlanta, New Orleans, Los Angeles
- Atlanta loses control of their own destiny for the NFC South with a loss
- New Orleans loses control of their own destiny for the NFC South with a loss
- Carolina gains control of their own destiny for the NFC South with a win and a NO loss.
Has been eliminated from divisional contention: Dallas, Detroit
- Atlanta is eliminated from NFC South contention with a loss
- New Orleans is eliminated from NFC South contention with a loss and a CAR win.
- Seattle is eliminated from NFC West contention with a loss or a LAR win


Has clinched a wild card spot: None
Clinching Scenarios:
- Atlanta clinches at least a wild card spot with a win
- Carolina clinches at least a wild card spot with a win
- New Orleans clinches at least a wild card spot with a win
- Los Angeles clinches at least a wild card spot with a DET loss, CAR loss, and ATL loss in addition to the above divisional scenarios
Controls own destiny for a playoff spot: New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta, Los Angeles
- Seattle will control their own destiny for a wild card spot with a win, DET loss, CAR loss, and ATL loss
Elimination Scenarios
- Detroit, Dallas, and Seattle are eliminated with a loss. (Atlanta is a literal road block in any 9-7 tiebreakers. They've beaten every team they could be tied with there, including GB, which is why they are eliminated).

 

[What the Faulk]

Falcons are winning out.

They are 100% not going to beat the Saints at full strength in NO on a short week after escaping the depleted Bucs. I want them to, but it's too much of an ask.

 

[justafan22]

All of the divisions could be wrapped up by Monday, right? If so, I expect Cowboys vs. Eagles on Sunday night.

Yup. If somehow the jags are playing for a bye, and the titans are win and in for week 17 I could see that game being SNF

 

[rangerssharks414]

Yup. If somehow the jags are playing for a bye, and the titans are win and in for week 17 I could see that game being SNF

I highly doubt they’d put two really small markets in the flex game. I think it’s more likely they put NYG/WAS in that game than JAX/TEN.

 

[What the Faulk]

Based on my Week 16 predictions

I would do the following in Week 17:

In the NFC, NO/TB, ATL/CAR, DET/GB, and PHI/DAL all play at the same time to give the wild card and NFC South games meaning. Probably at 1:00. LAR/SF can stay at 4 since the Rams would only be playing for the 3/4 seed regardless of what happens in the early window.

In the AFC, the LAC/OAK game probably has to stay at 4 but the Chargers could be drawing dead leading to a meaningless game, but since it doesn't matter to Oakland either, that's fine. The Chiefs will be locked into the 4 seed, so they can probably go at 4 in Denver. From there it gets murky. JAC/TEN could be a play-in game for Tennessee, but there's a good chance that Jacksonville will be locked into the 3 seed if that gets put on SNF. An obvious and lame solution I see is for all the rest of the WC potentials to play at 1:00 with NE/NYJ being the SNF game. The Patriots will be playing for homefield advantage, but the Jets are long dead. It's the scenario that gives the most games the most meaning.

Of course, I could have missed some Week 16 picks leading to different scenarios, but I'm not seeing a lot there that doesn't go as expected.

 

[GKJ]

I highly doubt they’d put two really small markets in the flex game. I think it’s more likely they put NYG/WAS in that game than JAX/TEN.

They would almost definitely select the game that has the biggest impact, which as of now is JAX/TEN. We go through topic this every year, and every year it the game with at least the 2nd most consequence that gets the SNF slot, and NBC fought very hard and paid a lot of money to do that. They sure as shit aren't putting 2 10-loss teams in the slot.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Yup. If somehow the jags are playing for a bye, and the titans are win and in for week 17 I could see that game being SNF

On the other hand, if the Jags were locked into place at #3 by PIT and NE wins in the coming weeks, it would be a huge competitive advantage for the Titans to face a team who would then know they could rest their starters based on games earlier in the day.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Official scenarios: Playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 16 in NFL

NFC
CLINCHED: Philadelphia -- NFC East and first-round bye; Minnesota -- NFC North

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
1) PHI win
2) MIN loss
3) PHI tie + MIN tie

Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
1) MIN win + CAR loss or tie
2) MIN tie + CAR loss + NO loss or tie + LAR loss or tie

Los Angeles Rams
Rams clinch NFC West:
1) LAR win or tie
2) SEA loss or tie

Rams clinch a playoff berth:
1) DET loss or tie + CAR loss + ATL loss (I don't understand why it takes BOTH CAR and ATL to lose in this scenario)

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans clinches NFC South:
1) NO win + CAR loss

New Orleans clinches a playoff berth:
1) NO win or tie
2) DAL-SEA tie

Carolina Panthers
Carolina clinches a playoff berth:
1) CAR win or tie
2) DAL-SEA tie

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta clinches a playoff berth:
1) ATL win
2) ATL tie + DAL-SEA tie + DET loss or tie

 

[misterchainsaw]

Rams clinch a playoff berth:
1) DET loss or tie + CAR loss + ATL loss (I don't understand why it takes BOTH CAR and ATL to lose in this scenario)

I’m at work so I can’t go into the playoff predictor for details, but that’s what I got too. If only Carolina loses, Atlanta gets to 10-6, New Orelans can win week 17 to get to 11-5, and Carolina can beat Atlanta in week 17 to get to 11-5. Atlanta beat the Rams so they get the #6 on the conference record tiebreak over the Rams.

If only Atlanta loses then Carolina and NO have 11 wins, and Carolina can lose to Atlanta in week 17 moving Atlanta to 10-6, again with the conference record tiebreaker win vs. the Rams.

 

[Avs_19]

Just give me a Vikings win and Panthers loss this week.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

I’m at work so I can’t go into the playoff predictor for details, but that’s what I got too. If only Carolina loses, Atlanta gets to 10-6, New Orelans can win week 17 to get to 11-5, and Carolina can beat Atlanta in week 17 to get to 11-5. Atlanta beat the Rams so they get the #6 on the conference record tiebreak over the Rams.

If only Atlanta loses then Carolina and NO have 11 wins, and Carolina can lose to Atlanta in week 17 moving Atlanta to 10-6, again with the conference record tiebreaker win vs. the Rams.

CAR and ATL are already in playoff spots though, which is why I am puzzled.

It seems like they overcomplicated the scenario to me.

A DET loss should be all they need from what I can tell as that pushes DET out of reach for LAR. ATL and CAR are already in playoff spots.

If DAL is 10-6 with an 8-4 conference record, that means SEA has lost to them and the Rams are division champs anyway. Even if DAL and SEA tie, SEA is 9-6-1 at best.

 

[misterchainsaw]

CAR and ATL are already in playoff spots though, which is why I am puzzled.

It seems like they overcomplicated the scenario to me.

A DET loss should be all they need from what I can tell as that pushes DET out of reach for LAR. ATL and CAR are already in playoff spots.

If DAL is 10-6 with an 8-4 conference record, that means SEA has lost to them and the Rams are division champs anyway. Even if DAL and SEA tie, SEA is 9-6-1 at best.

That wildcard scenario is only if Los Angeles hasn’t already clinched the division. So it assumes Seattle is 10-6 and wins the division, with LA dropping into the wild card picture with two of ATL, NO, and CAR (whichever two don’t win the division), and they have to finish above one of them.

EDIT: Seattle would be the team that gets in to remove Los Angeles in this scenario.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Ah yeah, now it makes sense. Thanks.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Field is so stacked. First time i can recall in a while where you can make at least a probable case for all 6 NFC playoff teams going to the Super Bowl.

Personally, my money is one of the two probable wild cards to survive the bloodbath. Both Carolina and Atlanta (assuming they hold on) are legit teams who also have the luxury of being to the dance before. I'd also give New Orleans a shot.

 

[Roboturner913]

Saints have 16 players on IR and 8 listed as questionable this week. They may not have the horses at this point. I'll give them a chance against the Falcons if one of those three guards plays and if they can somehow figure out how to stop Freeman with 2 linebacker and no Vaccaro, because they don't have a third linebacker with any game experience. It's insane and depressing. X-axis is man games lost:

 

[Canada4Gold]

Some fun NFC game scenarios this week. Dallas and Seattle are in the exact same situation, same teams they beat in tiebreakers, and lose to in tiebreakers, same record and they play each other. Winner of that game can't be eliminated, loser of that game will be eliminated.

In the NFC South both New Orleans and Atlanta control their own destiny as they play each other this week(and ATL plays CAR week 17). However if Carolina wins this week then one of NO and ATL will be eliminated from the division this week regardless of the result of that game.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Saints have 16 players on IR and 8 listed as questionable this week. They may not have the horses at this point.

 

[Roboturner913]

Gonna have to play a lot of heavy packages with no Thomas and only one TE. There might be 7 OL on the field at once.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Quick list of scenarios for next week. Results this week in brackets

PHI is 1 seed with...
- (PHI win)
- (PHI tie)PHI win/tie
- (PHI loss)PHI win
- (PHI loss)PHI tie + MIN tie
- (PHI tie)MIN loss/tie
- (PHI loss)MIN loss

PHI is the 2 seed with...
- (PHI loss)PHI loss + MIN win/tie
- (PHI loss)PHI tie + MIN win
- (PHI tie)PHI loss + MIN win

MIN is the 1 seed with...
- (PHI tie)MIN win + PHI loss
- (PHI loss)MIN win + PHI loss/tie
- (PHI loss)MIN tie + PHI loss

MIN clinch a bye with...
- MIN win/tie
- CAR loss/tie
- LAR win
- NO win

MIN is the 2 seed with...
- (PHI win)MIN win/tie
- (PHI win)CAR loss/tie
- (PHI win)LAR win
- (PHI win)NO win
- (PHI tie)MIN win + PHI win/tie
- (PHI tie)MIN tie
- (PHI loss/tie)MIN loss + CAR loss/tie
- (PHI loss/tie)MIN loss + LAR win
- (PHI loss/tie)MIN loss + NO win
- (PHI loss)MIN win + PHI win
- (PHI loss)MIN tie + PHI win/tie

MIN is the 3 seed with...
- MIN loss + CAR win + NO loss/tie + LAR loss/tie

NO clinches the division with...
- NO win
- NO tie + CAR tie
- CAR loss

NO is the 3 seed with...
- NO win + LAR loss/tie
- NO tie + CAR loss/tie + LAR loss

NO is the 4 seed with...
- NO win + LAR win
- NO tie + CAR loss/tie + LAR win/tie
- NO loss + CAR loss

NO is the 5 seed with...
- NO tie + CAR win
- NO loss + CAR win/tie

LAR is the 3 seed with...
- LAR win
- LAR tie + NO loss/tie + CAR loss/tie
- NO loss + CAR loss

LAR is the 4 seed with...
- LAR tie + NO win
- LAR tie + CAR win
- LAR loss + NO win/tie
- LAR loss + CAR win/tie

CAR clinches the division with...
- CAR win + NO loss/tie
- CAR tie + NO loss

CAR is the 2 seed with
- CAR win + NO loss/tie + MIN loss + LAR loss/tie

CAR is the 3 seed with...
- CAR win + NO loss/tie + MIN win/tie + LAR loss/tie
- CAR tie + NO loss + LAR loss

CAR is the 4 seed with...
- CAR win + NO loss/tie + MIN win/tie + LAR win
- CAR tie + NO loss + LAR win/tie

CAR is the 5 seed with...
- CAR loss
- CAR tie + NO tie
- NO win

ATL clinches the 6 seed with...
- ATL win
- ATL tie + SEA tie
- SEA loss

SEA clinches the 6 seed with...
- SEA win + ATL loss/tie
- SEA tie + ATL loss

 

[darko]

Just a frustrating year start to finish.

 

[misterchainsaw]

So Philly is #1, Minnesota is #2, and then there is 4 meaningful games involving 5 other potential playoff teams. Similar format to the AFC thread, where I'll list out all 16 permutations of games. In the games involving just one contender (ie not CAR/ATL), I'll list the contender in green if they won their game, and red if they lost their game. For CAR/ATL, I'll simply list the winning team.


CAR, LAR, NO, SEA - Los Angeles is #3, New Orleans is #4, Carolina is #5, Seattle is #6
CAR, LAR, NO, SEA - Los Angeles is #3, New Orleans is #4, Carolina is #5, Atlanta is #6
CAR, LAR, NO, SEA - Los Angeles is #3, Carolina is #4, New Orleans is #5, Seattle is #6
CAR, LAR, NO, SEA - New Orleans is #3, Los Angeles is #4, Carolina is #5, Seattle is #6
CAR, LAR, NO, SEA - Los Angeles is #3, Carolina is #4, New Orleans is #5, Atlanta is #6
CAR, LAR, NO, SEA - New Orleans is #3, Los Angeles is #4, Carolina is #5, Atlanta is #6
CAR, LAR, NO, SEA - Carolina is #3, Los Angeles is #4, New Orleans is #5, Seattle is #6
CAR, LAR, NO, SEA - Carolina is #3, Los Angeles is #4, New Orleans is #5, Atlanta is #6
ATL, LAR, NO, SEA - Los Angeles is #3, New Orleans is #4, Carolina is #5, Atlanta is #6
ATL, LAR, NO, SEA - Los Angeles is #3, New Orleans is #4, Carolina is #5, Atlanta is #6
ATL, LAR, NO, SEA - Los Angeles is #3, New Orleans is #4, Carolina is#5, Atlanta is #6
ATL, LAR, NO, SEA - New Orleans is #3, Los Angeles is #4, Carolina is #5, Atlanta is #6
ATL, LAR, NO, SEA - Los Angeles is #3, New Orleans is #4, Carolina is #5, Atlanta is #6
ATL, LAR, NO, SEA - New Orleans is #3, Los Angeles is #4, Carolina is #5, Atlanta is #6
ATL, LAR, NO, SEA - Los Angeles is #3, New Orleans is #4, Carolina is #5, Atlanta is #6
ATL, LAR, NO, SEA - Los Angeles is #3, New Orleans is #4, Carolina is #5, Atlanta is #6

 

[What the Faulk]

Carolina can still get a bye with a win and losses by Minnesota, New Orleans, and Los Angeles.

EDIT:

 

[Canada4Gold]

OP updated with the following and the above chart

Entering Week 17:

1. h - PHI 13-2
2. y - MIN 12-3
3. y - LAR 11-4
4. x - NO 11-4
-------------
5. x - CAR 11-4
6. ATL 9-6
-------------
7. SEA 9-6
-------------
8. DET 8-7
9. DAL 8-7
10. GB 7-8
11. WSH 7-8
12. ARI 7-8
13. CHI 5-10
14. SF 5-10
13. TB 4-11
16. NYG 2-13

x - clinched playoff spot
y - clinched division
z - clinched 1st round bye
h - clinched home field through NFC championship

Philadelphia Eagles
PHI is locked into the 1 seed

Minnesota Vikings
MIN is the 2 seed with...
- MIN win/tie
- CAR loss/tie
- LAR win
- NO win

MIN is the 3 seed with...
- MIN loss + CAR win + NO loss/tie + LAR loss/tie

New Orleans Saints
NO clinches the division with...
- NO win
- NO tie + CAR tie
- CAR loss

NO is the 3 seed with...
- NO win + LAR loss/tie
- NO tie + CAR loss/tie + LAR loss

NO is the 4 seed with...
- NO win + LAR win
- NO tie + CAR loss/tie + LAR win/tie
- NO loss + CAR loss

NO is the 5 seed with...
- NO tie + CAR win
- NO loss + CAR win/tie

Los Angeles Rams
LAR is the 3 seed with...
- LAR win
- LAR tie + NO loss/tie + CAR loss/tie
- NO loss + CAR loss

LAR is the 4 seed with...
- LAR tie + NO win
- LAR tie + CAR win
- LAR loss + NO win/tie
- LAR loss + CAR win/tie

Carolina Panthers
CAR clinches the division with...
- CAR win + NO loss/tie
- CAR tie + NO loss

CAR is the 2 seed with
- CAR win + NO loss/tie + MIN loss + LAR loss/tie

CAR is the 3 seed with...
- CAR win + NO loss/tie + MIN win/tie + LAR loss/tie
- CAR tie + NO loss + LAR loss

CAR is the 4 seed with...
- CAR win + NO loss/tie + MIN win/tie + LAR win
- CAR tie + NO loss + LAR win/tie

CAR is the 5 seed with...
- CAR loss
- CAR tie + NO tie
- NO win

Atlanta Falcons
ATL clinches the 6 seed with...
- ATL win
- ATL tie + SEA tie
- SEA loss

Seattle Seahawks
SEA clinches the 6 seed with...
- SEA win + ATL loss/tie
- SEA tie + ATL loss