NFL: NFC Playoff Picture

[Canada4Gold]

I'm pretty sure I just meant to put "and" instead of "or". Using "or" left that scenario with the exact same problems it had before

It's not as specific this way (like you said, the ATL wins scenarios are less restrictive), but it gets most of them and I think we all know Washington's leaving eventually.

And and or both have issues. But yes the issue I meant initially was needing an and but only in CAR's case, but then I realized the or works in the other cases as GB win is just as effective as a DET win in the SEA, DAL, and ATL win cases, which makes doing it in a 1 liner a mess but like you said WSH isn't going to last anyway. I just like to get it right if I'm going through the process.

MIN's scenarios turned out to be easy. Similar to PHI they can clinch the division, but if they don't they can't clinch a WC.

MIN win/tie
DET loss/tie + GB loss tie

Haven't got back to doing NO's yet, but I think they're going to be the most complex NFC ones from a glance.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Looking at NO's really good SOV, it doesn't appear they could lose that to either DET, GB, SEA, DAL or PHI(allowing DAL to take the division). ATL cannot get ahead of NO if NO beats them this week so had to have CAR get there, which I needed a MIN/CAR tie to accomplish while still allowing GB to beat CAR so GB could get to 10-6 as they had the best SOV of the 5. However I couldn't get any of the 5 above NO.

It appears that NO win + MIN win/tie would be a sufficient scenario in that case, gives MIN the div, the only team that could get ahead then would be LAR on the h2h and NO would clinch at least 6. I can only imagine the mess that will then occur when I allow MIN to lose and see what clinches scenarios may come up then, but hopefully the way it looks at least it won't involve the already clinches SOV? If that's the case then the scenarios should be fairly simple. NO win plus the MIN div clinching ones. But I'm extremel;y unconfident in these

NO clinches:

NO win + MIN win/tie
NO win + GB loss/tie + DET loss/tie

 

[misterchainsaw]

Looking at NO's really good SOV, it doesn't appear they could lose that to either DET, GB, SEA, DAL or PHI(allowing DAL to take the division). ATL cannot get ahead of NO if NO beats them this week so had to have CAR get there, which I needed a MIN/CAR tie to accomplish while still allowing GB to beat CAR so GB could get to 10-6 as they had the best SOV of the 5. However I couldn't get any of the 5 above NO.

It appears that NO win + MIN win/tie would be a sufficient scenario in that case, gives MIN the div, the only team that could get ahead then would be LAR on the h2h and NO would clinch at least 6. I can only imagine the mess that will then occur when I allow MIN to lose and see what clinches scenarios may come up then, but hopefully the way it looks at least it won't involve the already clinches SOV? If that's the case then the scenarios should be fairly simple. NO win plus the MIN div clinching ones. But I'm extremel;y unconfident in these

NO clinches:

NO win + MIN win/tie
NO win + GB loss/tie + DET loss/tie

Man, I can get Dallas within one win in SOV in the context of a DAL/DET/NO 3 way tie for #6 in the case of a MIN win, but can't quite get them there. And without Detroit in the picture New Orleans wins a common games tiebreaker. It definitely looks like the only way New Orleans can drop out after a win is if Minnesota doesn't win the NFC North, at least without ties. I did find a scenario where GB can end up topping NO on strength of victory if MIN and CAR end in a tie. Barely. NFL Playoff Predictor - Playoff Predictors

You'd need a GB or DAL loss here in addition to the NO win and MIN win.

EDIT: I think a MIN win would be good enough, but a MIN tie is not as the scenario above shows.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Man, I can get Dallas within one win in SOV in the context of a DAL/DET/NO 3 way tie for #6 in the case of a MIN win, but can't quite get them there. And without Detroit in the picture New Orleans wins a common games tiebreaker. It definitely looks like the only way New Orleans can drop out after a win is if Minnesota doesn't win the NFC North, at least without ties. I did find a scenario where GB can end up topping NO on strength of victory if MIN and CAR end in a tie. Barely. NFL Playoff Predictor - Playoff Predictors

You'd need a GB or DAL loss here in addition to the NO win and MIN win.

EDIT: I think a MIN win would be good enough, but a MIN tie is not as the scenario above shows.

Nice! Looks like it's a touch more than barely too, they lead by 2 wins. So have to add a DAL loss/tie, or 2 combined wins from JAC, MIA, BUF, WSH to clinch the SOV tie which would then revert to h2h. So...

NO win + MIN win
NO win + MIN tie + DAL loss/tie
NO win + MIN tie + 2 combined wins from (JAC, MIA, BUF, WSH)
NO win + MIN tie + GB loss/tie
NO win + GB loss/tie + DET loss/tie

Maybe that covers it.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Reddit scenarios out. I made a few more mistakes this week. DAL is also still alive in SOV against NO so NO win + MIN win doesn't quite clinch, and we have to avoid DAL SOV scenarios in the NO win + MIN tie scenarios too.

Had the ARI scenarios not quite written right so that's fixed with 1 scenario divided up into 2 different scenarios that covers everything that 1 scenario had.

WSH has 2 more scenarios added which clinches 3 South teams ahead of them

On the bright side I had TB, MIN, PHI and LAR correct, it's more than I can say for my AFC ones

SOV scenarios to come.

 

[Canada4Gold]

edit: NO scenarios are insane, not totally ironed out yet

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

You guys are crazy, lol.

From the mothership:

NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 14

NFC
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-2) (at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday)
Philadelphia clinches NFC East division with:
1. PHI win or tie OR
2. DAL loss or tie

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (10-2) (at Carolina, Sunday)
Minnesota clinches NFC North division with:
1. MIN win or tie OR
2. DET loss or tie + GB loss or tie

LOS ANGELES RAMS (9-3) (vs. Philadelphia (10-2), Sunday)
Los Angeles Rams clinch a playoff berth with:
1. LAR win + DET loss or tie + GB loss or tie + DAL loss or tie + CAR loss + ATL loss

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (9-3) (at Atlanta, Thursday night)
New Orleans clinches a playoff berth with:
1. NO win + CAR loss or tie + DAL loss or tie OR
2. NO win + CAR loss + DET loss or tie OR
3. NO win + DET loss or tie + GB loss or tie OR
4. NO win + CAR loss + NO clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over DAL OR
5. NO win + CAR tie + NO clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over DAL and GB OR
6. NO win + CAR tie + GB loss or tie + NO clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over DAL

 

[Canada4Gold]

And we thought the NO scenarios were fun...

Of the 2 WAS scenarios that I didn't sniff out myself, 1 of them was an SOV scenario. That SOV scenario thanks to GB, CAR, DAL, NYJ/DEN possibilities had 24 distinct elimination scenarios(2 for GB x 2 for CAR x 2 for DAL x 3 for NYJ/DEN = 24 total), which brings us up to 37 WAS elimination scenarios this week total. Which has to be close to the most ever.

The NO loss made the South really interesting moving forward though. The CAR fan in me is both happy and mad about it. If we win out now we only require 1 other NO loss to win the division. But damn that ATL win is going to make it really tough on us to get in at 10-6

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

After going through the playoff machine, there's a very real chance CAR's scenario entering week 17 will be:

Win, you are the number 2 seed at 12-4.

Lose, you miss playoffs at 11-5.

 

[What the Faulk]

God I'm going to be so mad if they put up 11 wins and miss the playoffs. I would have preferred zero shot at the division and a little more breathing room with an Atlanta loss tonight.

 

[Roboturner913]

If I'm not mistaken, the Cardinals went into their final game of 2013 knowing that even if they won to go to 11-5, they would miss the playoffs anyway. That's got to suck.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Guess we need to go to CFL rules, if the 7th place team in the NFC has more wins than the 6th team in the AFC they get to crossover

 

[What the Faulk]

After going through the playoff machine, there's a very real chance CAR's scenario entering week 17 will be:

Win, you are the number 2 seed at 12-4.

Lose, you miss playoffs at 11-5.

I can do you one better

NFL Playoff Predictor - Playoff Predictors

Week 14:
Jaguars beat Seahawks
Panthers beat Vikings
Rams beat Eagles

Week 15:
Panthers beat Packers
Seahawks beat Rams
Falcons beat Bucs

Week 16:
Titans beat Rams
Raiders beat Eagles
Packers beat Vikings
Panthers beat Bucs
Falcons beat Saints

Week 17:
Cowboys beat Eagles

11-4 Panthers @ 10-5 Falcons is your SNF game. On the line for the Panthers is the #1 seed. For the Falcons it's the #2 seed. Loser goes home. Aside from a few Eagles results, it's not terribly far fetched.

 

[Canada4Gold]

CAR tiebreakers

Can't beat in a tiebreaker: PHI, SEA, DAL, WSH, ARI, TB, CHI
Unlikely to beat in a tiebreaker: LAR
Likely to win tiebreakers against: DET
Guaranteed to beat in a tiebreaker: Nobody
Heavily dependent on upcoming h2h game: MIN, GB, ATL, NO
Can't tie: NYG, SF

Update:

NO: Can no longer win a tiebreaker against
MIN: Will win 2 way tiebreaker
GB: Can't win a tiebreaker win, if we win the h2h game they can't catch us.
ATL: h2h to come, if we lose we can't win the tiebreaker, they would win Div record.
LAR: Can only win it with LAR losses v. PHI, and SF, and a win against TEN. CAR holds SOV advantage but it's not clinched.

Can't beat in a tiebreaker: PHI, SEA, DAL, WSH, ARI, NO, GB
Unlikely to beat in a tiebreaker: LAR
Win 2 way ties with: DET, MIN
Guaranteed to beat in a tiebreaker: Nobody
2 way tie entirely dependant on future game: ATL
Can't tie: NYG, SF, TB, CHI

Hope a 3rd team doesn't get in the way of our h2h tiebreakers, those are the only ones we can win at this point. Would be brutal to lose a bye because the Eagles fell back(or Rams/Hawks jump up) and got in our way with a MIN tiebreaker, or even worse LAR/SEA getting in our way in a 10-6 tiebreakers with the Lions and we don't make the playoffs because of it. Hopefully we should win these next 2 weeks and not have that 2nd one possible.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Tampa and Washington are both out, and I believe only Jacksonville is keeping Arizona alive at the moment.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

What a race.

1. x -PHI 11-2
2. MIN 10-3
3. LA 9-4
4. NO 9-4
5. CAR 9-4
6. ATL 8-5
---
SEA 8-5
DET 7-6
GB 7-6
DAL 7-6

Rams @ Seahawks next week. Seahawks win, they grab control of the division due to a sweep of LA. Rams win and it's all but over with 2 game lead and 2 to play.

 

[Halladay]

Eagles clinch.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Rams and Hawks losing was very helpful. 1 more loss from ATL, SEA, or LAR(except LAR losing to SEA) will make 11-5 safe.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Been too long since we've got a standings list on the current page:

1. Philadelphia 11-2
2. Minnesota 10-3
3. Los Angeles 9-4 (Wins H2H tiebreaker with New Orleans for #3 seed)
4. New Orleans 9-4 (Wins H2H tiebreaker with Carolina for NFC South lead)
5. Carolina 9-4
6. Atlanta 8-5 (Wins H2H tiebreaker with Seattle)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7. Seattle 8-5
8. Detroit 7-6 (Leads H2H tiebreaker with Green Bay for NFC North placement, leads common opponents tiebreaker with Dallas for #8 seed)
9. Green Bay 7-6 (Wins H2H tiebreaker with Dallas for #9 seed)
10. Dallas 7-6
11. Arizona 6-7

All others are eliminated.

ENTERING WEEK 15:

Controls own destiny for #1 seed: Philadelphia
- Philadelphia will continue to control their own destiny for the #1 seed entering week 16 regardless of week 15 results
Clinching Scenarios:
- Philadelphia can clinch the #1 seed with a win and a MIN loss.
Teams eliminated from #1 seed contention: Arizona, Dallas, Detroit, Green Bay
- Seattle is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss or a PHI win
- Atlanta is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss or a PHI win
- Carolina is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss or a PHI win
- New Orleans is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a PHI win or a loss and a LAR win.
- Los Angeles is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss or a PHI win.
- Minnesota is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss and a PHI win.

Controls own destiny for 1st round bye: Philadelphia, Minnesota
- Minnesota will lose control of their own destiny for a bye with a loss and a CAR win
- Carolina will gain control of their own destiny for a bye with a win and a MIN, LAR, and NO loss
Clinching Scenarios:
- Philadelphia clinches a 1st round bye with a win
Teams eliminated from 1st round bye contention: Arizona, Dallas
- Green Bay is eliminated from bye contention with a loss or a MIN win.
- Detroit is eliminated from bye contention with a loss or a MIN win.
- Atlanta is eliminated from bye contention with a loss and a MIN win.
- Seattle is eliminated from bye contention with a loss.
- New Orleans is eliminated from bye contention with a loss and a MIN+LAR win.
- Los Angeles is eliminated from bye contention with a loss and a MIN win.

Has clinched division: Philadelphia
- Minnesota clinches the NFC North with a win or a GB+DET loss.
Controls own destiny for division: Minnesota, New Orleans, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Seattle
- New Orleans loses control of their own destiny for the NFC South with a loss and a Carolina win.
- Atlanta loses control of their own destiny for the NFC South with a loss and a NO or CAR win.
- Carolina gains control of their own destiny for the NFC South with a win and a NO loss.
- Seattle loses control of their own destiny for the NFC West with a loss.
Has been eliminated from divisional contention: Dallas, Arizona
- Detroit will be eliminated from the NFC North race with a loss or a MIN win
- Green Bay will be eliminated from the NFC North race with a loss or a MIN win


Has clinched a wild card spot: None
Clinching Scenarios:
- Minnesota clinches a wild card spot with a SEA loss and two losses from CAR/ATL/NO
- Los Angeles clinches a wild spot with a win, ATL loss, NO loss, GB loss, and TB loss.
Controls own destiny for a playoff spot: Philadelphia, Minnesota, New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Seattle
- Seattle loses control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a loss.
- Atlanta loses control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a loss, SEA win, NO win, and CAR win.
- Green Bay gains control of their own destiny with a win, SEA loss, ATL loss, and NO win.
Elimination Scenarios
- Arizona is eliminated with a loss, ATL win, GB+DET win, SEA win, or a DAL win.
- Dallas is eliminated with a loss, and a CAR+NO+ATL win.
- Green Bay is eliminated with a loss and ATL win
- Detroit is eliminated with a loss, CAR win, and a ATL win.

Obviously again barring ties - but I feel pretty good about these.

Strength of victory updates: NO has already clinched strength of victory in both GB and DET's elimination scenario, therefore it only takes a GB loss and a ATL win to eliminate GB, and a DET loss, CAR win, and ATL win to eliminate Detroit.

 

[DoyleG]

Been too long since we've got a standings list on the current page:

1. Philadelphia 11-2
2. Minnesota 10-3
3. Los Angeles 9-4 (Wins H2H tiebreaker with New Orleans for #3 seed)
4. New Orleans 9-4 (Wins H2H tiebreaker with Carolina for NFC South lead)
5. Carolina 9-4
6. Atlanta 8-5 (Wins H2H tiebreaker with Seattle)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7. Seattle 8-5
8. Detroit 7-6 (Leads H2H tiebreaker with Green Bay for NFC North placement, leads common opponents tiebreaker with Dallas for #8 seed)
9. Green Bay 7-6 (Wins H2H tiebreaker with Dallas for #9 seed)
10. Dallas 7-6
11. Arizona 6-7

All others are eliminated.

Falcons have the tiebreaker advantage over the Hawks, Lions, Packers and Cowboys. Panthers have H2H over Falcons

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Given how average Ryan has been and how banged up Freeman is, it's good that Falcon defense has actually become...good.

7th in total defense, 9th in points allowed. They are -5 in turnover ratio, which is the worst of any playoff team. Next to last in takeaways hurts a lot, but their defense is good now. If they could solve their takeaway/giveaway problem, I think they will run the table. If.

 

[What the Faulk]

Carolina laughably opened -1 at home to the Packers. That quickly got bet up to -3, which should honestly be the baseline.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Carolina laughably opened -1 at home to the Packers. That quickly got bet up to -3, which should honestly be the baseline.

I think the Saints, Panthers and Falcons all win this week.

 

[What the Faulk]

I think the Saints, Panthers and Falcons all win this week.

To be honest, I'd be a little surprised if any of them lost a game the rest of the season that wasn't against one of the others (TBx3, Jets, Packers).

 

[What the Faulk]

Carolina laughably opened -1 at home to the Packers. That quickly got bet up to -3, which should honestly be the baseline.

The line is now Carolina -6. Bettors really don't think Rodgers is going to play.