NFL: NFC Playoff Picture 2018

[Canada4Gold]

Ok, done my first calculations for the year. Kinda rusty so I expect to have missed some things. The expert says he expects to have verified his NFC scenarios by tomorrow night so will fix then if anything is incorrect. I've also added division elimination and clinching scenarios as well because they'll be up when he posts tomorrow night. The Giants scenarios were a bitch to complete.

DET Eliminated from Div with...
- DET Loss
- CHI Win
- DET Tie + CHI Tie
- DET Tie + MIN Win + GB Loss/Tie

GB Eliminated from Div with...
- GB Loss + CHI Win
- GB Loss + CHI Tie + MIN Win

NO Clinches Div/CAR Eliminated from Div with...
- NO Win + CAR Loss/tie
- NO tie + CAR Loss

NO Clinch Playoffs with...
- NO Win
- NO Tie + CAR Loss
- NO Tie + WSH Loss/Tie + MIN Loss/Tie
- NO Tie + WSH Loss/Tie + SEA Loss/Tie
- NO tie + WAS loss + SEA tie + MIN Tie

NYG Eliminated from Div with...
- NYG Loss

NYG Eliminated from Playoffs with...
- NYG Loss + CAR Win + MIN Win/Tie
- NYG Loss + CAR Win + SEA Win/Tie
- NYG Loss + CAR Win + WSH Win + DAL Win
- NYG Loss + DAL Win + WSH Win + MIN Win/Tie
- NYG Loss + DAL Win + WSH Win + SEA Win/Tie
- NYG Loss + MIN Win + SEA Win
- NYG Loss + SEA Win + MIN Tie + DET Win/Tie

LAR Clinches Div/SEA Eliminated from Div with...
- LAR Win
- SEA Loss
- LAR Tie + SEA tie

LAR Clinches Playoffs with...
- LAR Win
- LAR Tie + SEA Tie
- LAR Tie + CAR Loss + MIN Loss/Tie
- LAR Tie + CAR Loss + WSH Loss
- LAR Tie + CAR Loss + DAL Loss
- LAR Tie + MIN Loss/Tie + WSH Loss
- LAR Tie + MIN Loss/Tie + DAL Loss
- SEA Loss

SF Eliminated from Playoffs with...
- SF Loss
- SF Tie + CAR Win
- SF Tie + WSH Win + ATL Win + TB Win + DAL Tie
- SF Tie + WSH Win + DAL Win

ARI Eliminated from Playoffs with...
- ARI Loss
- ARI Tie + CAR Win
- ARI Tie + WSH Win + DAL Win
- ARI Tie + SEA Win + MIN Win/Tie

Eliminated from their division already: ATL, TB, ARI, SF

Edit: Forgot Rams clinching playoff scenarios, they've been added.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

This thread badly needs an update lol.

Current NFC Playoff Picture
New Orleans Saints 10-1 (S)
Los Angeles Rams 10-1 (W)
Chicago Bears 8-3 (N)
Dallas Cowboys 6-5 (E)

Minnesota Vikings 6-4-1 (WC1)
Washington Redskins 6-5 (WC2)

Saints + Rams currently occupy 1st round bye's
Redskins @ Bears and Vikings @ Cowboys would be current Wildcard matchups

In The Hunt
Seattle Seahawks 6-5 (W)
Carolina Panthers 6-5 (S)
Philadelphia Eagles 5-6 (E)
Green Bay Packers 4-6-1 (N)
Atlanta Falcons 4-7 (S)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-7 (S)
Detroit Lions 4-7 (N)

On Life Support
New York Giants 3-8 (E)
Arizona Cardinals 2-9 (W)
San Francisco 49ers 2-9 (W)

 

[justafan22]

Current NFC Playoff Picture
New Orleans Saints 10-1 (S)
Los Angeles Rams 10-1 (W)
Chicago Bears 8-3 (N)
Dallas Cowboys 6-5 (E)

Minnesota Vikings 6-4-1 (WC1)
Washington Redskins 6-5 (WC2)

Saints + Rams currently occupy 1st round bye's
Redskins @ Bears and Vikings @ Cowboys would be current Wildcard matchups

In The Hunt
Seattle Seahawks 6-5 (W)
Carolina Panthers 6-5 (S)
Philadelphia Eagles 5-6 (E)
Green Bay Packers 4-6-1 (N)
Atlanta Falcons 4-7 (S)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-7 (S)
Detroit Lions 4-7 (N)

On Life Support
New York Giants 3-8 (E)
Arizona Cardinals 2-9 (W)
San Francisco 49ers 2-9 (W)

I'd put the packers/falcons/bucs/lions in the life support group

 

[Canada4Gold]

Scenarios updated. I had a handful of errors. Added at tie at the end of 1 one of the ARI scenarios that shouldn't have been there. Had a couple incorrect NYG scenarios because I missed the use of SF to block SEA. And my NO, and LASR clinches scenarios were completely out of whack because I neglected to bring let MIN have the division, and bring CHI back to allow a 10-5-1 WSH team to make it over 10-5-1 NO who they lost to and get MIN in ahead of LAR who they lost to that way.

There's still 1 discrepancy in the GB/DET division elimination scenarios, my last scenario in both aren't in the official ones, and I can't figure out why. Will delete later if I am told why.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Those GB/DET ones I had were correct. What's posted above is officially correct.

 

[StreetHawk]

Current NFC Playoff Picture
New Orleans Saints 10-1 (S)
Los Angeles Rams 10-1 (W)
Chicago Bears 8-3 (N)
Dallas Cowboys 6-5 (E)

Minnesota Vikings 6-4-1 (WC1)
Washington Redskins 6-5 (WC2)

Saints + Rams currently occupy 1st round bye's
Redskins @ Bears and Vikings @ Cowboys would be current Wildcard matchups

In The Hunt
Seattle Seahawks 6-5 (W)
Carolina Panthers 6-5 (S)
Philadelphia Eagles 5-6 (E)
Green Bay Packers 4-6-1 (N)
Atlanta Falcons 4-7 (S)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-7 (S)
Detroit Lions 4-7 (N)

On Life Support
New York Giants 3-8 (E)
Arizona Cardinals 2-9 (W)
San Francisco 49ers 2-9 (W)

Rams won west as expected. Saints with Carolina’s struggles only need to split their series to win the division.

Dallas in a great spot after their win against the saints. Philly in tough with games against rams and Texans still. Washington missing smith.

Seattle looks good so long as they take care of sf and AZ and split minny and KC at home to get to 10-6 as they own the tiebreaker with Carolina.

Minnesota still alive.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

At this point it's DAL-PHI-SEA-CAR-MIN for 3 spots.

 

[Halladay]

The Eagles aren't making the wildcard, and their division chances are slim. They lose the tiebreaker to Minnesota and Carolina for wild card.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

The Eagles aren't making the wildcard, and their division chances are slim. They lose the tiebreaker to Minnesota and Carolina for wild card.

Unless the Eagles get a tie, there is no tie-breaker with Minny.

CAR needs to beat the Saints at least once to have any real shot.

 

[Roboturner913]

I'm penciling in Seattle already, that's a good team.

As for the last spot, Eagles schedule is nasty, Panthers schedule isn't much better. Hard to see either team doing better than 2-2. If the Vikings can go 2-2 (lose @Seattle and Bears, beat Dolphins and @ Lions) they'll finish at 8-7-1.

 

[Canada4Gold]

At this point it's DAL-PHI-SEA-CAR-MIN for 3 spots.

WSH isn’t very good, but with their weak schedule facing NYG and JAC and h2h over Carolina I could see them getting in at 8-8 if the Vikings slip up coming in. That’s kinda sad TBH. Depends on if the Eagles can get to 8-8 to block them. I hope they can as Carolina would have the h2h over the Eagles.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Update heading into Week 14 and decided to cut off most of the still alive but longshots or near impossible teams at this point

Current Playoff Field
Los Angeles Rams 11-1 (W)
New Orleans Saints 10-2 (S)
Chicago Bears 8-4 (N)
Dallas Cowboys 7-5 (E)

Seattle Seahawks 7-5 (WC1)
Minnesota Vikings 6-5-1 (WC2)

In The Hunt
Carolina Panthers 6-6 (S)
Philadelphia Eagles 6-6 (E)
Washington Redskins 6-6 (E)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-7 (S)

Rams have clinched NFC West

Games to watch with signficance to playoff race this weekend
Saints @ Bucs
Panthers @ Browns
Giants @ Redskins
Eagles @ Cowboys
Rams @ Bears
Vikings @ Seahawks

 

[Roboturner913]

The problem with Washington is that Mark Sanchez is their QB now and nobody better is going to be walking through that door.

Otherwise they might be the best combination of "complete" (run game, defense, etc) team and favorable schedule.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Haven't had the chance to do the scenarios this week, but here's what NFLPlayoffScenarios on reddit has.

NYG is eliminated from NFC East title contention with:
- NYG loss/tie OR
- DAL win

NYG is eliminated from the playoffs with:
- NYG loss

GB is eliminated from NFC North title contention with:
- GB loss OR
- GB tie + CHI win/tie OR
- GB tie + MIN win/tie OR
- CHI win OR
- CHI tie + MIN win

GB is eliminated from the playoffs with:
- GB loss + WAS win + DAL/PHI tie

DET is eliminated from the playoffs with:
- DET loss + MIN win OR
- DET loss + PHI win/tie OR
- DET loss + WAS win/tie OR
- DET tie + SEA win/tie + WAS win + DAL/PHI tie

NO clinches the NFC South division title/CAR Eliminated from division with:
- NO win/tie OR
- CAR loss/tie

NO clinches a playoff berth with:
- MIN loss + PHI loss/tie + WAS loss/tie

ATL is eliminated from the playoffs with:
- ATL loss + WAS win + DAL/PHI tie

LAR clinches a first-round bye with:
- LAR win

ARI is eliminated from the playoffs with:
- ARI loss OR
- ARI tie + PHI win/tie OR
- ARI tie + WAS win/tie OR
- ARI tie + MIN win/tie OR
- ARI tie + CAR win OR
- WAS win + DAL/PHI tie

Already clinched division: LAR
Already eliminated from division: DET, TB, ATL, SEA, ARI, SF
Already eliminated from playoffs: SF

 

[Roboturner913]

Would be kind of funny if the Saints clinch the division a week before they even play the Panthers for the first time this season.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Have to believe Seattle and Minnesota are huge frontrunners for the WCs at this point. But if Minnesota didn't exist 7-9 getting the 2nd WC wouldn't even be that unlikely

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Panthers were 6-3 and in WC #1 spot when I started this thread

Now 6-7 with playoff hopes potentially fading away. Skins collapse is easy to understand given the massive injuries including to both QB's on roster

What has happened in Carolina?

 

[Canada4Gold]

Panthers were 6-3 and in WC #1 spot when I started this thread

Now 6-6 with playoff hopes potentially fading away. Skins collapse is easy to understand given the massive injuries including to both QB's on roster

What has happened in Carolina?

6-7 now*, and they were 6-2 to start the year. 5 losses in a row. 2 games left against NO. They're cooked.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Your right they are now 6-7

Yikes what a collapse

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Have to believe Seattle and Minnesota are huge frontrunners for the WCs at this point. But if Minnesota didn't exist 7-9 getting the 2nd WC wouldn't even be that unlikely

Not really. They play each other tomorrow and the Eagles are coming on strong Brenda Lee style. Its more accurate to say that the winner tomorrow night will be a huge front runner because there's a decent chance the Eagles will be ahead of the loser.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Not really. They play each other tomorrow and the Eagles are coming on strong Brenda Lee style. Its more accurate to say that the winner tomorrow night will be a huge front runner because there's a decent chance the Eagles will be ahead of the loser.

The Eagles currently losing to the Cowboys and still play LAR, and HOU, I don't see how they do any better than 8-8 and realistically probably 7-9. Seattle plays Arizona and SF yet so even if they lose tomorrow I don't see them doing worse than 9-7. Minnesota could in theory fall out(and that's my hope as a Panther fan) as they play SEA, CHI, MIA and DET. There's gotta be at least 1 win in there and probably 2. If they get 2 to get to 8-7-1 I don't see the Eagles getting in. I'd give Seattle a 95% chance at the playoffs, and Minnesota maybe a 75% chance. Eagles, Redskins, and Panthers likely split the remaining odds minus a miracle happening for someone else but I don't like any of their chances to get to 9 wins, not even sure they get to 8.

 

[rangerssharks414]

What has happened in Carolina?

This happened.

 

[c9777666]

So far, things have broken right for CHI (PHI/CAR/WAS all lose).

 

[BKIslandersFan]

Are Giants officially done?

 

[Roboturner913]

What has happened in Carolina?

Nothing new. They've been super streaky for a few years. They'll go on this long win streak and people are thinking, man this is a really good team. Then they lose 5 of the next 6. Or they start off terrible and bounce back.

I think the year before they went to the SB they lost like 6 in a row and started off 3-9 or something. Then they finish strong. Started the next year 12-0 or 13-0, something like that. Then they lost the SB and went into a tailspin the next season and finished 6-10. Then finally rebounded in the middle of the next season after a pretty average 4-3 type start and ended up going 11-5. Then the next season (this season) they start off 6-2. Then they fall apart and lose 5 in a row.

Very strange franchise. Most teams are streaky to some extent but the Panthers are really Jekyll and Hyde.