IF they can get a vaccine out by Spring, I'd imagine you'll start seeing fans back by Sept. It might have to be a "show us proof of vaccine or a negative test", plus masks, but it's not impossible.
It is not likely we will have a vaccine distributed and injected by spring. On top of that, you need time to actually let the vaccine take hold.
First, it requires two doses 3 weeks apart. Second, there are 15mil Ontarians. The logistics required to pull that off is huge.
The other issue is vaccine availability. Canada has committed to more than enough doses BUT they need to manufacture those doses. It is not like Canada is the only one to order vaccines as well. It will take the full calendar year of 2021 to receive, distribute, inoculate (twice) every person wanting the vaccine.
Then, the numbers need to go down. That won’t happen overnight.
The challenge will be when the numbers naturally go down in the late spring and through the summer while the vaccine is being administered, it will be difficult to maintain the message that it is the virus offseason. That means we may still see a “3rd wave” next September, especially if people generally think the vaccine is well underway and “obviously” has had an impact when it is the summer that is the real reason for the lower numbers. Also, if the numbers go down in May-June as predicted, it may be less motivation for people to follow through with the vaccination schedule.
A report I heard the other day was we’d get something like 2mil doses in canada by end of year provided Health Canada approves the vaccine. Considering they’ve been manufacturing it regardless of success (which is why we paid for it already), we probably will only get around 2mil doses per month, more if both the Pfizer and Moderna get approved.
I think, based on this, we really need to temper our expectations for hockey. Based on how the Government has proceeded this far, it is highly unlikely there will be any significant attendance...aka ticket sales.
Others have raised the question regarding “hot spots” and how that may affect things. Although this is a valid point, we also need to realize there are many outside the box solutions available to the league. IT is a matter of cost-benefit.
I think the one really good solution could be a series of divisional tournaments where the teams can somewhat bubble for a week or so at a time with breaks between. Those divisional tournaments can happen in the most safe locations. This would require a significant commitment of many games in short periods. This may require expanded rosters or shorter games.
In a tournament situation, there would be a bubble set up to accommodate the teams. When the tournament is over, the teams return to their base city and recover and train/practice.
This is not ideal BUT it is a way to ensure teams are playing in safe zones. With multiple teams, they can share entire hotels to create a better bubble.
Again, nothing is perfect and no proposed solution is ideal. However, I think if we consider the only option being teams billeting with families and playing inter-division and a normal home-away schedule format, we will set ourselves up for failure. There will need to be sacrifices made on behalf of the League, players, teams-organizations and families supporting players. Fans really aren’t in the conversation.
