Rumor: New York Post: Flyers taking run at Max Pacioretty

[Damaged Goods]

Probably the bolded; or more precisely, we all grew up in an age absolutely loaded with D talent. The top D talent from the 80s, 90s and early 2000's blows away what's floating around the league right now. There was just more to be had.

I think that's extremely unlikely. Players are bigger, stronger, faster, better instructed, better conditioned, better medically treated, more scrutinized and have more access to information than in years before. Plus they are being drawn from a larger, wealthier population. There's more time, money and human effort being put into the game than two, three or four decades ago. There would have to be some set of extraordinary circumstances for all of that to result in an inferior quality of player 15-20 deep at one position.

You'll have to point those posts out to me. The objection is to tossing him into a trade on top of a roster player. The Flyers have been guilty of that for ages and it hasn't brought success.

From the first two pages:

i dont think the Flyers deal Morin or Laughton honestly. At least I wouldnt. I know that means no Max but I would rather stay the course. They are doing a good job at building up the prospect pool. I know there isnt a ton of depth yet but hopefully they are starting to get the idea they need to build it up.

Everyone recall that the Habs loved Morin at the draft and tried to trade up. I really don't want to trade that kid. We need to keep our young stockpile of defensemen.

As far as Pacioretty goes, yeah, it would be a nice piece for us to have, but I don't really see the point if we have to blow up our team as it is, or lose any defensive prospects. And I know MTL likes Morin...

god i hope they dont trade morin-i miss having a bid dman with a mean streak.mtl wants him bad,so obviously good prospect.ill be pissed if we lose him.JUST SAY NO homer.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I think that's extremely unlikely. Players are bigger, stronger, faster, better instructed, better conditioned, better medically treated, more scrutinized and have more access to information than in years before. Plus they are being drawn from a larger, wealthier population. There's more time, money and human effort being put into the game than two, three or four decades ago. There would have to be some set of extraordinary circumstances for all of that to result in an inferior quality of player 15-20 deep at one position.

There's also a stat somewhere on the history of hockey forum that hockey registrations in Canada plummeted for a while, indicating there was a drop in the talent pool in hockey's premier country for producing elite talent; they're only just getting back up to a pace not seen since the late 70s and early 80s.

Training, nutrition, and equipment don't make a player. Sheer talent and hockey IQ aren't bestowed by those things. Otherwise hockey talent would constantly be on the increase with those fields and that just isn't the case. You really think the best player in the game now, Crosby, is better than Gretzky was? Why haven't we seen any Dmen better than Orr? There have been a few articles that speculate the current system-heavy focus of youth development is squandering creativity and hockey IQ, for instance...so that's one aspect of modern hockey that could be holding the most talented players back.

We grew up with a league populated by guys like Bourque, Leetch, Pronger, Lidstrom, Chelios, Stevens, Niedermayer, among others. Any of those guys would be the best Dman in the league right now; hell, some of them had or contended for that title into their mid to late 30s in the modern game...and the NHL had all of them playing at once. I don't think it's outrageous at all to think the NHL has had a drop in talent at D when you look at what they had 15-20 years ago.

From the first two pages:

None of those say "I don't want to trade Morin for Pacioretty 1-for-1."

 

[Larry44]

Vannelli isn't a downgrade on Morin, regardless of draft position. Both have high ceilings with Morin a higher floor as a L. Schenn type defensive defenseman.

The flyers need a top line left winger to play with Giroux. That person does not exist on the roster. So you can get them in one of three ways: free agency, draft, or trade. By the time forwards hit free agency at 27 they are past their statistically prime and closing in on the downside of their career after 30 years old. So you are paying huge prices for the a diminishing product in UFA. Plus there is no guarantee that player is going to choose the Flyers over the other 29 clubs; see Parise.

So you can draft them however only a select few usually at the very top can immediately move into a top line position. So any forward the Flyers draft will probably take another year or two in juniors plus a couple of years to hit their stride at the NHL level. So maybe best case 3 years post draft. So Giroux will be 28-29 by the time the Flyers get him a top quality winger thru the draft. Not a very good use of his prime years.

So that leaves trade. Unless you are a wannabe GM on the main boards here, you don't get a top line winger for scraps. Plus when that winger is on a ridiculously low contract that it is folly for their current team to even think about trading them, it is well worth moving a prospect that may or may not have a similar impact on the team as the player you are getting.

Well, the Flyers signed a free agent, Raffl, who is playing better with Giroux and Voracek than Hartnell, Schenn, Read or Lecavalier have this year. Raffl is 25, so a Read-like older rookie. He has first line speed, is great at finding his linemates and creating room for them and hits very hard too. Since he joined the line, they are revitalized. Why trade a great prospect for a piece of crap like Pacioretty, when we have a guy who is playing great hockey in that spot already? G and JV are on multi-game point streaks. Both credit Raffl's smart play with making a huge difference, but what would they know???

 

[Appleyard]

There's also a stat somewhere on the history of hockey forum that hockey registrations in Canada plummeted for a while, indicating there was a drop in the talent pool in hockey's premier country for producing elite talent; they're only just getting back up to a pace not seen since the late 70s and early 80s.

Training, nutrition, and equipment don't make a player. Sheer talent and hockey IQ aren't bestowed by those things. Otherwise hockey talent would constantly be on the increase with those fields and that just isn't the case. You really think the best player in the game now, Crosby, is better than Gretzky was? Why haven't we seen any Dmen better than Orr? There have been a few articles that speculate the current system-heavy focus of youth development is squandering creativity and hockey IQ, for instance...so that's one aspect of modern hockey that could be holding the most talented players back.

We grew up with a league populated by guys like Bourque, Leetch, Pronger, Lidstrom, Chelios, Stevens, Niedermayer, among others. Any of those guys would be the best Dman in the league right now; hell, some of them had or contended for that title into their mid to late 30s in the modern game...and the NHL had all of them playing at once. I don't think it's outrageous at all to think the NHL has had a drop in talent at D when you look at what they had 15-20 years ago.






None of those say "I don't want to trade Morin for Pacioretty 1-for-1."

Yep, the D talent was superior... I mean, look at how all these guys did in the last few years of their career (well, aside from Chelios but still.)

Leetch: 91 points in last 146 games. (age 35-37) That is pacing for 54-55 points a year. Still No.1 Dman when retired.

Chelios: 40 in 79 games age 40, plus 14 in 24 playoff games. Still a legitimate NHL D man age 46.

Bourque: 59 points in 80 games age 40. In one of the lowest scoring years in league history. If he had that year this year he would likely win the Norris. Still No.1 Dman when retired.

Pronger: 92 in last 145 games, plus 19 in last 26 playoff games. (age 35-37) Pacing for 52 points a year in that time. Arguably still one of the best 5 D men in the league when his career was ended.

Lidstrom: Norris age 40. 96 in 152 after 40th birthday. 52 points per 82 games after 40. Still No.1 Dman when retired.

Stevens: Age 38 onwards was still great, amazing in 2003 playoffs and looked to be able to play on until his injuries caught up with him. Points don't tell you much with him. But he was playing 24 minutes a night in his last year... versus the best players in the NHL each night.

Niedermayer: Age 35-37 got 107 points in 162 games. (54 every 82) 10 in 13 playoff games.

MacInnis: Age 39-40 got 70 in 83 games... across two of the lowest scoring years ever. (lower scoring than now.) He was scoring like Erik Karlsson does now after age 39.

Then look at how well 2nd tier D men compared... guys like Gonchar, Zubov, Rafalski, Wesley, Schneider, Blake etc. Heck, look at Kimmo.

These guys all played against most of the current crop of NHL players after their 35th birthday... and were better than most of their peers then, if not still elite.

The average age in the NHL has been increasing for the last 30 years now... and since 1985-86 each year the average age of playoff teams is older. Teams are not signing 30 year old rookies, that aint the reason for it!

 

[Prongo]

I wouldn't trade Morin for MaxPac. It also depends on how much this organization sees in Morin, which seems like a lot. I think they really believe he will be a #1 in this league. I am only trading Morin in a defense trade though, not for a forward.

 

[BackWithaVengeance]

I wouldn't trade Morin for MaxPac. It also depends on how much this organization sees in Morin, which seems like a lot. I think they really believe he will be a #1 in this league. I am only trading Morin in a defense trade though, not for a forward.

Thank you. We're already 2.

 

[Rolex]

The fact that other teams are after Morin tells you that the kid is valuable. The scouts told the FO that in June. At camp he showed them. Obviously he's not NHL ready yet but he's giving indications that he could be a special player. Good organizations don't trade away that kind of young talent unless they get top flight return. That isn't Max P. He's not that good.

 

[Jtown]

I think montreal is the only team after morin.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I think montreal is the only team after morin.

At this point I find it encouraging that ANY team has interest in one of our D prospects.

 

[Hockeypete49]

]I wouldn't trade Morin for MaxPac.[/B] It also depends on how much this organization sees in Morin, which seems like a lot. I think they really believe he will be a #1 in this league. I am only trading Morin in a defense trade though, not for a forward.

I am with you. All this BS because of a NY writer. Do people still want to move Simmonds? Really.

 

[flyersfromquebec]

Maybe this year Homer will do nothing big but a Mason for a 3rd(last year trade) type of trade at the deadline for a D. He is kind of patient this season, he didnt make a panic move and know it seems to be paying divident. As of now we are in the playoff.

 

[mja]

I'd be completely down with packaging the Schenns for a better winger or dman. I'm just not seeing it with either of them.

 

[OrangeAndBlackMetal]

I'd also be ok with moving the Schenns together for an upgrade at either wing or d.

 

[Hockeypete49]

Well, the Flyers signed a free agent, Raffl, who is playing better with Giroux and Voracek than Hartnell, Schenn, Read or Lecavalier have this year. Raffl is 25, so a Read-like older rookie. He has first line speed, is great at finding his linemates and creating room for them and hits very hard too. Since he joined the line, they are revitalized. Why trade a great prospect for a piece of crap like Pacioretty, when we have a guy who is playing great hockey in that spot already? G and JV are on multi-game point streaks. Both credit Raffl's smart play with making a huge difference, but what would they know???

Well stated. I am with you 100%.

 

[BernieParent]

I mostly agree with Larry, but referring to Pacioretty as a "piece of crap" is utterly ridiculous. He's a legitimate first-line winger with both size and scoring touch. It's one thing to be against a trade for the return versus cost, but there's no need to belittle a very good player in the process.

 

[CS]

I'd also be ok with moving the Schenns together for an upgrade at either wing or d.

Nah. I think Schenn + Schenn for Patches would be a mistake. I like Patches, but if Schenn bottoms out as a 50 point winger vs. Patches' 60 point average, I'll take the extra Schenn on defense over a measly 10 points. Plus both Schenns are younger.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

ok, so how many times have we been down the road. trade 1st and 2nd rounders and a prospect for a veteran defenseman and/or forward. usually for a rental. The Flyers dont reach their goal, the player leaves and they are back to square one. every season they seemingly do it. last year obviously was different because they were not in playoff contention.
Now i agree the "rumor" for Max is different since hes 25 and on a good deal. That said I still would not deal any of our young defenseman for reasons I have already stated. Sure there is plenty of time to draft another guy, but what if players you want are no longer on the board? you have to be in draft position to get a guy like Morin or anyone else with his upside.
I would offer them a deal around Simmonds. if they say no then move on.

Fair enough. They would laugh at a deal around Simmonds in all likelihood. If you want a guy like Patches, you have to give up something more valuable than Wayne Simmonds (and I like Wayne Simmonds a lot).

Which is why myself and others are advocating keeping Morin. Could he not reach being a top pairing guy? Sure there are no guarantees with prospects. But I would like to have some patience(or whatever word you want to use) and see what we have with him in a couple,3 years.

And I understand that. I'm not talking about just putting Morin on the trading block or dangling him at the deadline. I'm just talking about in this particular instance being willing to part with Morin (this instance being getting a 25 year old, established 30 goal scorer, on a long-term friendly deal). If a rental was coming back, or if an aging player was coming back. No dice. Seeing what we have in three years is fine, but I don't think it is a stretch to say that Pacioretty would be as valuable to this team (if not more valuable) as Morin.

In other words, we need established, young, controllable scoring wingers as much as we need a potential top pairing defender. Not downplaying our defensive needs, simply stating that at this point Morin is nothing more than a possibility whereas Pacioretty is already excelling in the NHL.

That's either an unrealistically high standard for "real" #1D or we are enduring a historical shortage of defensive talent in the league. By definition there should be 15-20 very capable #1 d-men. Then after that, sure, you fade into the vague overlap between #1 and #2. It's rare that d-men are directly scoring or preventing goals (compared to forwards or goalies) so their contributions are harder to measure and appreciate. They are also more likely to be blamed by fans and media for allowing goals than they are to be praised for creating possession that leads to offense. This leaves you with a lot of under-appreciated defensemen.

I think there is a shortage of defensive talent right now. Every team has their own "#1 defenseman," but they aren't all true franchise defenders. Timonen is great on this team, but he's not a #1 defender. #1 defender is Shea Weber, Chris Pronger, Zdeno Chara, etc.

Subban, Karlsson, Yandle, Doughty, Letang, McDonagh, Hedman, Markov, Kronwall, Bouwmeester, and probably a few more.

Doughty probably fits the bill as a #1 defender more than any of these guys. The rest are all top flight defenders, but not on the same level as the Charas and Webers of the world. You have your Subbans, Karlssons, Yandles, and Letangs that are more offense than defense. All guys I'd love here but they aren't on the same level as the true #1 defenders. Kronwall, Markov and Bouwmeester are more of the compelte package, but again not the same level as the true #1 guys. Hedman and McDonagh are on their way I'd say, but not there ATM.

All these guys are definitely better than what we have now, and if Morin becomes what these guys are, I'd be thrilled. But when you think of a true #1, franchise defender, they are not on the same level as Chara, Weber, Suter, and the others I mentioned in the previous post.

 

[DecadesofFutility]

I wouldn't trade Morin for MaxPac. It also depends on how much this organization sees in Morin, which seems like a lot. I think they really believe he will be a #1 in this league. I am only trading Morin in a defense trade though, not for a forward.

I would trade Morin for a more developed Dman, one I could envision as #1 PMD for the Flyers.
Right now, Morin to me seems like a boom or bust defensive player.
If he turns into Luke Schenn, then Homer missed on a better defender.
I wanted Morrisey or Pulock at their pick, we need a replacement for
Timonen, not for Grossman or Coburn.
Defensive defensemen are available in later rounds or as free agents,
just not enamored with the pick.
Hope they are right in their decision and I am wrong.

 

[Psuhockey]

Nah. I think Schenn + Schenn for Patches would be a mistake. I like Patches, but if Schenn bottoms out as a 50 point winger vs. Patches' 60 point average, I'll take the extra Schenn on defense over a measly 10 points. Plus both Schenns are younger.

I don't think comparing points between B.Schenn and Pacioretty is relevant as Pacioretty is strictly a goal scorer and doesn't to put up a toon of a assists. For this team, Pacioretty 30+ goals is more important than total points.

B. Schenn has the talent to be another Shane Doan IMO but is way too invisible most games. He doesnt move his feet consistently which is the key to his skill set. He doesn't have the talent to float around. Now Shane Doan became hugely productive at 23 years old after 4 middling years at the NHL level so Schenn still could turn it around but right now this guy is still living off his prospect hype.

The extra Schenn on defense is a 5th defenseman making 3.6 million dollars. I like Luke Schenn but that is a terrible allocation of capspace. I also think his skill set is redundant on the team with Grossmann here. If you can get a legitimate top line left winger on a below market contract for his prime years to pair with Giroux and Voracek while they are in their prime, you easily trade those two IMO.

The one thing that is not being discussed enough is how ridiculously great pacioretty's contract is. Cap hits are going to increase substantially. I wouldn't even doubt if Downie gets 4.5 this offseason. Pacioretty is signed until 30 years old, his entire statistically prime, at $4.5. He contract is so good it makes zero sense for Montreal to trade him.

 

[Protest]

Nah. I think Schenn + Schenn for Patches would be a mistake. I like Patches, but if Schenn bottoms out as a 50 point winger vs. Patches' 60 point average, I'll take the extra Schenn on defense over a measly 10 points. Plus both Schenns are younger.

I think B. Schenn will be a really solid player, 50-60 point winger. But flipping him for Pacioretty might make sense from a fit perspective. Giroux needs a goal scorer on his line, and Pacioretty would fill that role.

Luke Schenn is a whatever player. For his cap hit you can find a defenesman that will give you similar production, so he can be replaced.

Giroux only has a few years left of being a top player in the league, unless he is going to be an exception to the rule... He may be, but having good players around him will go a long way towards making that happen.

 

[GKJ]

Pacioretty has shown to be a far better possession player than Brayden Schenn thus far. He has more value than a 10 point differential. Brayden Schenn has been getting soft competition and favorable zone starts and gets pushed back (and was once considered a plus-defensive prospect). While you could argue Pacioretty should be getting tougher assignments despite having a plus-QoC and under 50% O-Zone starts.

Brayden Schenn is running out of time to 'be' anything. He is either a 50-point winger right now, or he isn't.

 

[Protest]

Pacioretty has shown to be a far better possession player than Brayden Schenn thus far. He has more value than a 10 point differential. Brayden Schenn has been getting soft competition and favorable zone starts and gets pushed back (and was once considered a plus-defensive prospect). While you could argue Pacioretty should be getting tougher assignments despite having a plus-QoC and under 50% O-Zone starts.

Brayden Schenn is running out of time to 'be' anything. He is either a 50-point winger right now, or he isn't.

He's been on pace for 40-45 points all year at 22, if he winds up there at the end of the season it won't be much of a stretch to say he'll be 50+ point player over the next several years.

 

[GKJ]

He's been on pace for 40-45 points all year at 22, if he winds up there at the end of the season it won't be much of a stretch to say he'll be 50+ point player over the next several years.

More to my point is that he is whatever people thought he would be right now, or he won't be. It's time to stop talking about what Brayden Schenn will be, and talk more about what he is.

 

[Curufinwe]

He is worth keeping unless there is a team willing to part with a top defenseman in return for BSchenn +.

 

[Appleyard]

I think B. Schenn will be a really solid player, 50-60 point winger. But flipping him for Pacioretty might make sense from a fit perspective. Giroux needs a goal scorer on his line, and Pacioretty would fill that role.

Luke Schenn is a whatever player. For his cap hit you can find a defenesman that will give you similar production, so he can be replaced.

Giroux only has a few years left of being a top player in the league, unless he is going to be an exception to the rule... He may be, but having good players around him will go a long way towards making that happen.

I think as a 'playmaker' primarily G will not suffer as much as others. Thornton, St. Louis, Zetterberg, Datsyuk and Sedin are 5 of the top 10 Assist per game player so far this decade... and all have been 30 since 2010 at latest.

07-08 to 09-10 vs 10-11 onwards (assists per game): (I did not want to look at 05-06-06-07 due to high scoring, even though the ages therefore are not perfect)

Thorton: 0.81 to 0.72
St. Louis: 0.7 to 0.74
Zetterberg: 0.61 to 0.67
Datsyuk: 0.72 to 0.66
Sedin: 0.83 to 0.80

Average: 0.734 to 0.718

The average age of these players in the first 3 year spell was ~29 (around the end of prime) the average age of them from 10-11 onwards is ~33, but even though that is the case their average assists per game dropped nominally... and it is worth noting average scoring in 07-10 was 5.56 per game, since 2010-11 it has been 5.36. (though Stamkos skews the original result I imagine! but even excluding St. Louis the figures are 0.743 to 0.713.)

His goal production will dip I imagine... but due to 70% (in the last 4 years) of his points being assists I do not think he will be unduly affected production wise (5~ goal drop I imagine) until his mid 30's.

Typically goal production among 'top' players decreases around 30% between the age of 29 and 33. Then another 5-10% between 33 and 36.

So for Giroux:

25 goals a year (averaged for last 4)

~18-20 ages 29-33.

~15-16 ages 33-36.

So basically what Thornton and Sedin are putting up at that age.