Rumor: New York Post: Flyers taking run at Max Pacioretty

[Curufinwe]

The league is full of their guys in their 30s producing a lot of points but apparently the soon-to-be 26 year old Claude Giroux only has a few years left of being a top player.

All these old guys are in the top 40 in scoring.

Thornton
Kunitz
Sharp
St Louis
Keith
Marleau
Hossa
Jagr
H Sedin
D Sedin
Datsyuk
Zetterberg

 

[Protest]

The league is full of their guys in their 30s producing a lot of points but apparently the soon-to-be 26 year old Claude Giroux only has a few years left of being a top player.

All these old guys are in the top 40 in scoring.

Thornton
Kunitz
Sharp
St Louis
Keith
Marleau
Hossa
Jagr
H Sedin
D Sedin
Datsyuk
Zetterberg

On that list are 3 Blackhawks who play on the highest scoring team in the league with Kane and Toews, the dude that plays with Crosby, a top 5 forward of all time, 2 other potential hall of famers, a guy that plays with one of the hall of famers, 2 sets of linemates.

So either they're hall of famers or play with other high level players. How is that different than what I said?

Giroux only has a few years left of being a top player in the league, unless he is going to be an exception to the rule... He may be, but having good players around him will go a long way towards making that happen.

 

[Psuhockey]

The league is full of their guys in their 30s producing a lot of points but apparently the soon-to-be 26 year old Claude Giroux only has a few years left of being a top player.

All these old guys are in the top 40 in scoring.

Thornton
Kunitz
Sharp
St Louis
Keith
Marleau
Hossa
Jagr
H Sedin
D Sedin
Datsyuk
Zetterberg

No one is saying that Giroux will stop producing after 30 just that his peak years are beforehand. If you look at those guys, substract Keith who as a defensemen peaks around 30 and Kunitz who is just riding shotgun to Crosby, the most productive years of those guys careers were age 30 or below.

 

[Curufinwe]

They are still top players. As Appleyard already showed there's no reason to assume Giroux's production will fall off to any great degree due to age. It's literally the last thing the Flyers need to worry about.

 

[Appleyard]

If you look at those players with similar goal to assist ratios to Girouxs... and their 'best' five adjusted seasons (factored to 82 games played):

Zetterberg:
07-08: (109 adjusted points) age 27
12-13: (94 adjusted points) age 32
06-07: (91 adjusted points) age 26
10-11: (88 adjusted points) age 30
05-06: (88 adjusted points) age 25

Datsyuk:
07-08: (105 adjusted points) age 29
08-09: (101 adjusted points) age 30
12-13: (95 adjusted points) age 34
05-06: (93 adjusted points) age 27
10-11: (92 adjusted points) age 32

Thornton:
05-06: (122 adjusted points) age 26
02-03: (120 adjusted points) age 23
06-07: (115 adjusted points) age 27
09-10: (98 adjusted points) age 30
01-02: (96 adjusted points) age 22

Sedin:
09-10: (119 adjusted points) age 29
10-11: (101 adjusted points) age 30
11-12: (90 adjusted points) age 31
12-13: (85 adjusted points) age 32
08-09: (84 adjusted points) age 28

St. Louis:
12-13: (114 adjusted points) age 37
03-04: (109 adjusted points) age 28
10-11: (107 adjusted points) age 35
09-10: (100 adjusted points) age 34
07-08: (90 adjusted points) age 32

Weight:
94-95: (118 adjusted points) age 24
95-96: (100 adjusted points) age 25
00-01: (97 adjusted points) age 31
02-03: (88 adjusted points) age 32
96-97: (88 adjusted points) age 27

Tom Steen:
90-91: (85 adjusted points) age 30
89-90: (85 adjusted points) age 29
88-89: (74 adjusted points) age 28
91-92: (73 adjusted points) age 31
84-85: (70 adjusted points) age 24

Nicholls:
88-89: (129 adjusted points) age 27
89-90: (98 adjusted points) age 28
94-95: (88 adjusted points) age 33
87-88: (82 adjusted points) age 26
84-85: (82 adjusted points) age 23

Francis:
95-96: (122 adjusted points) age 33
94-95: (111 adjusted points) age 32
97-98: (101 adjusted points) age 34
01-02: (90 adjusted points) age 38
89-90: (87 adjusted points) age 26

Janney:
93-94: (90 adjusted points) age 26
90-91: (87 adjusted points) age 23
92-93: (85 adjusted points) age 25
91-92: (80 adjusted points) age 24
95-96: (78 adjusted points) age 28


Oates:
90-91: (137 adjusted points) age 28
92-93: (115 adjusted points) age 30
95-96: (103 adjusted points) age 33
94-95: (92 adjusted points) age 32
01-02: (91 adjusted points) age 39

Hawerchuk:
84-85: (103 adjusted points) age 21
87-88: (101 adjusted points) age 24
91-92: (92 adjusted points) age 28
88-89: (86 adjusted points) age 25
86-87: (85 adjusted points) age 23

Gilmour:
92-93: (102 adjusted points) age 29
93-94: (100 adjusted points) age 30
86-87: (89 adjusted points) age 23
99-00: (88 adjusted points) age 36
96-97: (86 adjusted points) age 33

Average highest scoring year (age): 28.2
Average top 3 year (age): 28.7
Average top 5 year (age): 28.9

29/65 of the top 5 years these guys had were over the age of 30.
But only 12/65 age 33 and above.
Only 2/12 guys did not have a top 5 season after the age of 30.
Most had their top year ages 26-30 (9/13). (2 age 25 or > and 2 age 31>)

I know there are myriad circumstances to these 13 players... but I simply chose them off their assist and goal ratio being similar to Girouxs for their time. It does show, albeit in a small sample, that guys who are pass happy and elite seemingly age far better than more balanced players per-say. (considering the average player peaks in points age 25.)

Giroux so far:
11-12 (110 adjusted points) age 24
12-13 (91 adjusted points) age 25
10-11 (83 adjusted points) age 23

So it most likely he has either already had his best season, or will do in the next 4 and a half years. But due to being a playmaker he does seemingly have a longer window... potentially being very good until his mid 30's, it makes sense really as well.

 

[Funf]

Informative as usual, Appleyard! For adjusted points, are you adjusting for league wide GPG averages or just pacing for 82?

I'm wondering if there are any other factors leading to these players success though, such as average ice time, quality of their line mates, or if their team's goals per game is up. Although I guess for the sake of this argument, it doesn't mean a whole lot - there are always various circumstances surrounding a players career year.

 

[BleedOrange]

Just say NO to Packman we dont need him.

 

[Appleyard]

Informative as usual, Appleyard! For adjusted points, are you adjusting for league wide GPG averages or just pacing for 82?

I'm wondering if there are any other factors leading to these players success though, such as average ice time, quality of their line mates, or if their team's goals per game is up. Although I guess for the sake of this argument, it doesn't mean a whole lot - there are always various circumstances surrounding a players career year.

Used hockey refs adjusted points (so factored for GPG averages, roster size etc) then factor the individuals to 82 games played if they played less than every game in the year... I know it is not entirely representative as 80 in 40 is not the same as 160 in 80 for example... but I find people easier identify with 'factored' points compared to PPG in terms of knowing how good it actually is, especially in the 1.1-1.3 range.

Yeh, I was just going to do ~4 to begin with, but then thought about that so tried to get as many with a similar ~65-75% of points over a longish career being assists. Quality of team mates is a big one I reckon, ie Francis, Janney, Oates and Nicholls especially showing that.

 

[Psuhockey]

If you look at those players with similar goal to assist ratios to Girouxs... and their 'best' five adjusted seasons (factored to 82 games played):

Zetterberg:
07-08: (109 adjusted points) age 27
12-13: (94 adjusted points) age 32
06-07: (91 adjusted points) age 26
10-11: (88 adjusted points) age 30
05-06: (88 adjusted points) age 25

Datsyuk:
07-08: (105 adjusted points) age 29
08-09: (101 adjusted points) age 30
12-13: (95 adjusted points) age 34
05-06: (93 adjusted points) age 27
10-11: (92 adjusted points) age 32

Thornton:
05-06: (122 adjusted points) age 26
02-03: (120 adjusted points) age 23
06-07: (115 adjusted points) age 27
09-10: (98 adjusted points) age 30
01-02: (96 adjusted points) age 22

Sedin:
09-10: (119 adjusted points) age 29
10-11: (101 adjusted points) age 30
11-12: (90 adjusted points) age 31
12-13: (85 adjusted points) age 32
08-09: (84 adjusted points) age 28

St. Louis:
12-13: (114 adjusted points) age 37
03-04: (109 adjusted points) age 28
10-11: (107 adjusted points) age 35
09-10: (100 adjusted points) age 34
07-08: (90 adjusted points) age 32

Weight:
94-95: (118 adjusted points) age 24
95-96: (100 adjusted points) age 25
00-01: (97 adjusted points) age 31
02-03: (88 adjusted points) age 32
96-97: (88 adjusted points) age 27

Tom Steen:
90-91: (85 adjusted points) age 30
89-90: (85 adjusted points) age 29
88-89: (74 adjusted points) age 28
91-92: (73 adjusted points) age 31
84-85: (70 adjusted points) age 24

Nicholls:
88-89: (129 adjusted points) age 27
89-90: (98 adjusted points) age 28
94-95: (88 adjusted points) age 33
87-88: (82 adjusted points) age 26
84-85: (82 adjusted points) age 23

Francis:
95-96: (122 adjusted points) age 33
94-95: (111 adjusted points) age 32
97-98: (101 adjusted points) age 34
01-02: (90 adjusted points) age 38
89-90: (87 adjusted points) age 26

Janney:
93-94: (90 adjusted points) age 26
90-91: (87 adjusted points) age 23
92-93: (85 adjusted points) age 25
91-92: (80 adjusted points) age 24
95-96: (78 adjusted points) age 28


Oates:
90-91: (137 adjusted points) age 28
92-93: (115 adjusted points) age 30
95-96: (103 adjusted points) age 33
94-95: (92 adjusted points) age 32
01-02: (91 adjusted points) age 39

Hawerchuk:
84-85: (103 adjusted points) age 21
87-88: (101 adjusted points) age 24
91-92: (92 adjusted points) age 28
88-89: (86 adjusted points) age 25
86-87: (85 adjusted points) age 23

Gilmour:
92-93: (102 adjusted points) age 29
93-94: (100 adjusted points) age 30
86-87: (89 adjusted points) age 23
99-00: (88 adjusted points) age 36
96-97: (86 adjusted points) age 33

Average highest scoring year (age): 28.2
Average top 3 year (age): 28.7
Average top 5 year (age): 28.9

29/65 of the top 5 years these guys had were over the age of 30.
But only 12/65 age 33 and above.
Only 2/12 guys did not have a top 5 season after the age of 30.
Most had their top year ages 26-30 (9/13). (2 age 25 or > and 2 age 31>)

I know there are myriad circumstances to these 13 players... but I simply chose them off their assist and goal ratio being similar to Girouxs for their time. It does show, albeit in a small sample, that guys who are pass happy and elite seemingly age far better than more balanced players per-say. (considering the average player peaks in points age 25.)

Giroux so far:
11-12 (110 adjusted points) age 24
12-13 (91 adjusted points) age 25
10-11 (83 adjusted points) age 23

So it most likely he has either already had his best season, or will do in the next 4 and a half years. But due to being a playmaker he does seemingly have a longer window... potentially being very good until his mid 30's, it makes sense really as well.

I am confused by this adjusted points. Are you adjusting for an 82 to game season those seasons that the player has played less due to injury? If that is case, that is a flawed system as older players are more likely to get injured. Datsyuk and Zetterberg are two great cases of that. They are two of the best in the league but have had trouble staying on the ice the past couple of years due to injuries. Even adjusting points during for the lockout last year would also be poor as the season was cut in half limiting the amount of time an older player could get injured. If we are talking age related production, injuries are more common with age and should be factored into any discussion.

 

[Tripod]

Remember the last time we traded a 22 year old top prospect?

Maybe we all need a bit more patience.

And keep in mind, B.Schenn(hopefully) is going to be signing a nice little bridge deal for the next 2 years like Couts did.

 

[Appleyard]

I am confused by this adjusted points. Are you adjusting for an 82 to game season those seasons that the player has played less due to injury? If that is case, that is a flawed system as older players are more likely to get injured. Datsyuk and Zetterberg are two great cases of that. They are two of the best in the league but have had trouble staying on the ice the past couple of years due to injuries. Even adjusting points during for the lockout last year would also be poor as the season was cut in half limiting the amount of time an older player could get injured. If we are talking age related production, injuries are more common with age and should be factored into any discussion.

Yes... but only to show how good the players actually are at their age... as anyone can be injured regardless of age, I could have just done PPG, but it is not as easy to show quickly how good the players are.

I always think age and injury prevalence is overstated. At least up until the mid 30's.

There were figures a few years ago that showed 21-25 year olds miss ~12% of games, 26-30 year olds missed ~14.2% of all games due to injury... 31-35 ~16.6%.

That is only a difference of 11.6 to 13.6 games missed per year from late 20's to early 30's. 36 and over figures were not pretty though, and the increase in the 31-35 bracket was driven mainly by the 33-35 year olds.

But 2 games a year difference between 26-30 and 31-35 on average over the whole timeframe and almost no difference across the ages of 26-32 mean PPG factored seems the best way to do it.

The difference between a 26 year old and 35 year old is also ~11.48 games missed a year to ~14.76 according to this chart. Not exactly a great deal on average. ~3 games extra a year.

He is the graph for it... but I cannot find the figures, so just calculated straight off the graph.

As can be seen, the 26 to 32 area on the table is very stable. In my original figures only 12/65 best seasons were at age 33 or over.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jjA6NuKertI/UdM7SiPuXnI/AAAAAAAAAew/wc2R57RXFwA/s863/MGL+age+chart+2.JPG

 

[Psuhockey]

Yes... but only to show how good the players actually are at their age... as anyone can be injured regardless of age, I could have just done PPG, but it is not as easy to show quickly how good the players are.

I always think age and injury prevalence is overstated. At least up until the mid 30's.

There were figures a few years ago that showed 21-25 year olds miss ~12% of games, 26-30 year olds missed ~14.2% of all games due to injury... 31-35 ~16.6%.

That is only a difference of 11.6 to 13.6 games missed per year from late 20's to early 30's. 36 and over figures were not pretty though, and the increase in the 31-35 bracket was driven mainly by the 33-35 year olds.

But 2 games a year difference between 26-30 and 31-35 on average over the whole timeframe and almost no difference across the ages of 26-32 mean PPG factored seems the best way to do it.

The difference between a 26 year old and 35 year old is also ~11.48 games missed a year to ~14.76 according to this chart. Not exactly a great deal on average. ~3 games extra a year.

He is the graph for it... but I cannot find the figures, so just calculated straight off the graph.

As can be seen, the 26 to 32 area on the table is very stable. In my original figures only 12/65 best seasons were at age 33 or over.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jjA6NuKertI/UdM7SiPuXnI/AAAAAAAAAew/wc2R57RXFwA/s863/MGL+age+chart+2.JPG

Ok so why not just publish the point totals for the year in conjunction with their age? Why adjust?

 

[Psuhockey]

Joe Thornton has not broken 90 pts since turing 30 but did it 4 times before hand and twice over 100.

Pavel datsyuk peak years were 97 points in two consecutive at 29 and 30. Since hasn't broken 70.

Zetterberg's best year was age 27 with 92. He actually had a great 30 year old season with 80 pts but dipped to 69 the following year which was his lowest ppg total since before the full season lock out.

Henrik Sedin age 29 112 pts, age 30 94; the 2 highest of his career. Full season after 81.

Daniel Sedin age 30 104 pts. Year after 67.

The lockout last year screwed up any real followed up to the Sedins, or any of the other players, but neither are on pace to break 70 this year. All those players had their most productive years 30 or younger.

 

[Appleyard]

Ok so why not just publish the point totals for the year in conjunction with their age? Why adjust?

Due to era. 100 points in 1985 is not 'worth' 100 points now effectively! (hence using adjusted points, and factoring to 82 games for each individual is simply to show how good they were, if I just put a PPG figure most people just go and calculate that off 82 games anyway!)

100 points in the last 2-3 years is very, very hard to get. 2 people have done it in the last 3 years and only two others have factored for it.

Compare that to say 91-92 where 15 players factored for 100 points and 9 got it and it is easy to see why the comparison is impossible if not adjusted. You kind of have to factor for era or the numbers are pretty worthless to compare due to GPG differences etc.

The only other way to do it is put them in point scoring rank for that year really. (which I actually quite like.)

For example Bernie Federko got 102 points in 80 games in 85-86... but was 13th in points and 16th in PPG.

Compare that to 01-02 where Yashin got 75 in 78 and was 13th in scoring and 17th in PPG.

The seasons were extremely comparable amongst their peers... but there is a 27 point difference.

If you did not do that it would tell you a season where a player came 10th in scoring in the early 90's was better than a season they came 1st in the late 90's, as they got more points in the early 90's! For example, among his peers Lindros's rookie season was far worse than his 97-98, 99-00 or 01-02 season... even though he got more points and more PPG! (he was 22nd in PPG scoring as a rookie... top ten in each of the other 3 years.)

 

[Psuhockey]

Due to era. 100 points in 1985 is not 'worth' 100 points now effectively! (hence using adjusted points, and factoring to 82 games for each individual is simply to show how good they were, if I just put a PPG figure most people just go and calculate that off 82 games anyway!)

100 points in the last 2-3 years is very, very hard to get. 2 people have done it in the last 3 years and only two others have factored for it.

Compare that to say 91-92 where 15 players factored for 100 points and 9 got it and it is easy to see why the comparison is impossible if not adjusted. You kind of have to factor for era or the numbers are pretty worthless to compare due to GPG differences etc.

The only other way to do it is put them in point scoring rank for that year really. (which I actually quite like.)

For example Bernie Federko got 102 points in 80 games in 85-86... but was 13th in points and 16th in PPG.

Compare that to 01-02 where Yashin got 75 in 78 and was 13th in scoring and 17th in PPG.

The seasons were extremely comparable amongst their peers... but there is a 27 point difference.

If you did not do that it would tell you a season where a player came 10th in scoring in the early 90's was better than a season they came 1st in the late 90's, as they got more points in the early 90's! For example, among his peers Lindros's rookie season was far worse than his 97-98, 99-00 or 01-02 season... even though he got more points and more PPG! (he was 22nd in PPG scoring as a rookie... top ten in each of the other 3 years.)

Makes a ton of sense. We will have to see how things progress over the next few years as far as overall scoring. Point production if you group all players peaks at 25 and declines significantly after thirty but to your point, some players have a special skill set that allows them to produce later in their careers. It is neither wrong to say these are Giroux's prime years, as well as Simmonds, Voracek, and Read, nor is it wrong to think Giroux could continue to produce later in his career. However this was a discussion about obtaining Giroux a top notch left wing to maximize his talents. My contention was why wait if that player is available for a reasonable return and not maximize these prime years of Giroux's career. Whether Gioux produces later in his career doesn't change the fact that the Flyers need a top line left wing now as well in the future.

Here are some articles about point production and age:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/1/21/1261318/nhl-points-per-game-peak-age
http://www.fromtherink.sbnprivate.com/2010/7/16/1572579/when-is-an-nhl-players-prime-age

And one specifically discussing Perry and Getzlaf and their future production decline:
http://thegoodpoint.com/nhl-age-trends/

And here is one stating that after the big lockout(2004), older players are not producing as much as they did just before it:
http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2012/3/2/2839168/nhl-player-age-production-lockout

 

[Protest]

If you look at those guys you listed Appleyard they're either Hall of Fame players or had very good linemates, or both. That was basically my point.

If you think Giroux is a Hall of Fame talent then yea he could be this player into his 30's, but its unlikely. Even if he's still picking up points it's unlikely he'll be the difference maker he is now.

Right now is his prime, and if you look at the best players in the league, sans Crosby, they all have another one of the better players in the league playing with them.

Stamkos - St. Louis

Ovechkin - Backstrom

Getlaf - Perry

Malkin - Neal

Toews - Sharp - Hossa - Kane - Keith

 

[JustJim]

Well stated. I am with you 100%.

I am also 100% in support of this! Raffl definitely needs to stay!

 

[Curufinwe]

Raffl has been a revelation.

 

[Appleyard]

If you look at those guys you listed Appleyard they're either Hall of Fame players or had very good linemates, or both. That was basically my point.

If you think Giroux is a Hall of Fame talent then yea he could be this player into his 30's, but its unlikely. Even if he's still picking up points it's unlikely he'll be the difference maker he is now.

Right now is his prime, and if you look at the best players in the league, sans Crosby, they all have another one of the better players in the league playing with them.

Stamkos - St. Louis

Ovechkin - Backstrom

Getlaf - Perry

Malkin - Neal

Toews - Sharp - Hossa - Kane - Keith

I know what you mean, but I did not cherry pick them, I simply picked the guys in their era who had similar goal to assist ratios as Giroux... I was actually quite surprised once adjusted that he had been outproducing or having similar production to some of them already.

Basically what I think is that while I agree good linemates will help, it does seem that pass first playmakers suffer less of a point drop into their 30's than more balanced players or shooters. As if G is potting say 25-60 on average a year (which is around what he has been doing for 300 games averaged) I imagine he drops to 18-20 goals and 55-60 assists... instead of guys who score 40-45 who will likely drop around 10 or more goals and 5 assists+/.

GPG across the league going up would be great as well though... I feel some guys around since the mid 90's are going to get screwed in terms of HOF recognition.

If you look at points adjusted for era Alfredsson, Thornton and Iginla are ahead of guys like Hawerchuk, Gartner and Trottier already in similar or less games. I imagine Thornton gets in.. but the other two? Iginla probably will. Alfie, maybe not.

Ray Whitney is equal with Trottier in like 15 more games than him.

Jagr is only 600 points off Gretzky and Howe only 280~ off as well if adjusted for era.