GDT: New Jersey Devils 2 @ Philadelphia Flyers 5 - Oct. 20, 2018

[Ghosts Beer]

It's not about the player, it's about the usage.

Please, keep rolling Hagg out there for 17 minutes at 5v5 against top competition. Surely everything will be fine.

Surely.

Has Hagg been “a problem” so far? Far from it.

So it’s laughable for a guy who has complained about Hagg for 8 games, where he’s tied for the D lead in points & +/- on a 1.15M contract, to lecture & scold others about complaining about things that aren’t a problem.

 

[hatcher]

Has Hagg been “a problem” so far? Far from it.

So it’s laughable for a guy who has complained about Hagg for 8 games, where he’s tied for the D lead in points & +/- on a 1.15M contract, to lecture & scold others about complaining about things that aren’t a problem.

Hagg playing with provy helped provy out to. About 8 different times where ghost would lose a corner battle hagg won then moved it to provy and the break out started clean. Great pairs right now finally.

 

[Appleyard]

I think Hagg has been better than last year so far for sure. And has not been a "problem".

But he is still at best the 5th best Dman the Flyers have... and he has a high PDO that will come down at some point.

People are talking about Provy playing badly... and he is for Provorov... but their underlying numbers are virtually identical, the difference is that Provorov has a PDO of 93 and Hagg of 103.

 

[deadhead]

Well, I wouldn't take plus minus seriously but:

Hagg 2.53 pp/60, CF 45.25%, CFrel -3.32, xGF 41.23, xGFrel -2.73
Ghost 0.50 pp.60, CF 45.41, CFrel -3.01, xGF 46.01, xGFrel +4.42

Of course, Hagg was playing with MacDonald so that pulls his numbers way down.

SSS stats should never be trusted, but the eyeball says Hagg is playing better this year, more aggressive to good effect on the offensive end, better positioning on defense, but he's simply not talented enough to carry a putrid AMac. Looked better with Folin and should look even better with Provorov. Like Gudas, the less you ask of Hagg, the better he'll play.

Real problem is fit, just as with the forwards, Folin isn't playing badly, but replace him with Myers and it's easier to mix and match, same way replacing Lehtera with Rubtsov and Weal with Frost would make the forward lines look much better.

But as Vorobyev has shown, players don't necessarily make a smooth adjustment, sometimes it's one step back, two steps forward.

 

[hatcher]

Has Hagg been “a problem” so far? Far from it.

So it’s laughable for a guy who has complained about Hagg for 8 games, where he’s tied for the D lead in points & +/- on a 1.15M contract, to lecture & scold others about complaining about things that aren’t a problem.

You see the game like you been in the league 100 years. Solid posts and very real.

 

[hatcher]

I think Hagg has been better than last year so far for sure. And has not been a "problem".

But he is still at best the 5th best Dman the Flyers have... and he has a high PDO that will come down at some point.

People are talking about Provy playing badly... and he is for Provorov... but their underlying numbers are virtually identical, the difference is that Provorov has a PDO of 93 and Hagg of 103.

That's why numbers mean shit. He's been sub par watching the games and has to pick it up.

 

[1865]

I'm actually feeling surprisingly pro-Hagg lately. He does look to have taken a huge step forward and whilst his scoring will tail off, having 5 points at this stage and 'only' a PDO of 103 whilst being a +2 isn't that bad. I hope he develops into that 4/5 he could be.

 

[Appleyard]

That's why numbers mean ****. He's been sub par watching the games and has to pick it up.

As I stated the post you quoted... Provorov is playing badly. His numbers reflect that as does the eye test, they are way, way down on last year. He has also been very unlucky which makes it seem he is playing even worse than he is, while Hagg has been a bit lucky, which makes it seem he is playing better than he is.

And numbers such as PDO basically do not lie. Because all of a sudden just because of one player a goalie is not going to put up .940 sv% at 5v5... or the team shoot at 11% with them on ice.

As a sample gets bigger they ALWAYS go back to the 98-102 range... unless the player is great (with a specific skillset), or not NHL level.

103 is about the highest a player can sustain across multiple seasons playing regularly.
97 is about the worst.

Of the 591 players who have played 2000+ 5v5 minutes since the start of 2013:

540 are between 98-102 PDO.

2 are above 103 (Laine at 103.2 and Palat at 103.07)
2 are below 97 (Ott at 96.89 and Gordon at 96.59)

 

[1865]

Apple, is there a 'Moneyball' approach in the future of just signing players with poor PDOs and building an undervalued team of people who should bounce back?

 

[Appleyard]

Apple, is there a 'Moneyball' approach in the future of just signing players with poor PDOs and building an undervalued team of people who should bounce back?

Haha. Well, in theory it could work, especially in terms of UFA's who have had years with awful PDOs despite no issues in that area before, so long as all their other stats are ok...

 

[mja]

I'm actually feeling surprisingly pro-Hagg lately. He does look to have taken a huge step forward and whilst his scoring will tail off, having 5 points at this stage and 'only' a PDO of 103 whilst being a +2 isn't that bad. I hope he develops into that 4/5 he could be.

As someone who couldn’t stand Hagg’s game last year, I’ve been ok with him this year. He’s not been great but he’s been processing the game much better and actually looks like he at least belongs in the league. It’s still infuriating that he’s getting more ice time than Sanheim, who might actually be our best defenseman if only he was given the chance.

 

[Hurricane28]

I was feeling pro Hagg until Atkinson beat him bad on the 1 on 1 thursday night

 

[David St Hubbins]

2018 Hagg on 3rd pairing is fine

Any Hagg on top pairing, no.

 

[bennysflyers16]

I was feeling pro Hagg until Atkinson beat him bad on the 1 on 1 thursday night

I would be 100% Pro Haag if he was used on the 3rd pair.

 

[ybnvs]

I was feeling pro Hagg until Atkinson beat him bad on the 1 on 1 thursday night

That's Cam Atkinson and Robert Hagg you're talking about.

Apples and oranges.

Temper the expectations...

 

[DancingPanther]

Has Hagg been “a problem” so far? Far from it.

So it’s laughable for a guy who has complained about Hagg for 8 games, where he’s tied for the D lead in points & +/- on a 1.15M contract, to lecture & scold others about complaining about things that aren’t a problem.

I'm sorry, did I stutter?

I T S N O T A B O U T T H E P L A Y E R I T S A B O U T T H E U S A G E

Just so we're clear, you think it's a good game plan for Hagg to play against mainly the other team's best players? Is that what you're implying? You're not worried about that even a little bit?

 

[deadhead]

Well, there's a bit of a problem, Provorov - Ghost were not playing well, and breaking them up strengthened the defense overall, at least temporarily.
But if Provorov - Hagg are paired, Hagg is going to play more against better players (or Provorov less).
While they double shift Provorov, you can only do that so much.
And I doubt they want to break up Sanheim - Gudas.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I'm sorry, did I stutter?

I T S N O T A B O U T T H E P L A Y E R I T S A B O U T T H E U S A G E

Just so we're clear, you think it's a good game plan for Hagg to play against mainly the other team's best players? Is that what you're implying? You're not worried about that even a little bit?

Just so we’re clear, I’m laughing about Striiker lecturing everyone about complaining about things that aren’t “a problem” while he complains about a 1.15M defenseman with 5 points in 8 games, +2, and 17 SOG.

Not only has Hagg not been “a problem,” he’s been a positive so far.

If you can’t admit that, you’re blinded by bias.

 

[DancingPanther]

Just so we’re clear, I’m laughing about Striiker lecturing everyone about complaining about things that aren’t “a problem” while he complains about a 1.15M defenseman with 5 points in 8 games, +2, and 17 SOG.

Not only has Hagg not been “a problem,” he’s been a positive so far.

If you can’t admit that, you’re blinded by bias.

I can admit he has not been "a problem" so far. I have been pleased with his play as a whole this year.

However, he is in over his head the way our coach is deploying him. I asked you the same question twice, neither time has it been answered. If you can't admit Hagg could turn into a problem playing on the top pair, you're blinded by bias.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I can admit he has not been "a problem" so far. I have been pleased with his play as a whole this year.

However, he is in over his head the way our coach is deploying him. I asked you the same question twice, neither time has it been answered. If you can't admit Hagg could turn into a problem playing on the top pair, you're blinded by bias.

My whole point was the irony in Striiker’s lecturing people about complaining about things that haven’t been a problem while he bitches every day about Hagg, who not only hasn’t been a “problem” but has been a net positive through 8 games.

He hasn’t been “in over his head” yet.

I don’t expect him to continue his current level of play, but maybe it’s also time for a whole slew of posters to admit he’s improving & isn’t nearly as bad as they’ve long & vociferously contended.

For a $1.15M defenseman on his 2nd contract, he’s been as good of a value defenseman as there is in the league so far.

And based on his play, no, I don’t think playing him 18:11 per night is the disastrous type of deployment you are implying. Might he slump in the future? Sure. Provorov has been slumping since game 1. It happens. But I’m not going to criticize him or the coach for what has been, on the whole, good play through 8 games.

 

[David St Hubbins]

Hagg has improved to the point where he is a net neutral on the ice. A reasonable 3rd pairing defenseman on an appropriate contract. As such, for me, he becomes a non-factor in and of himself.

Deploying him on the top pair is an abomination, and falls at the manure covered feet of Debbie Slackjaw. But otherwise, we've got bigger fish to fry. Hagg should be a non-issue.

 

[kudymen]

Hagg has improved to the point where he is a net neutral on the ice. A reasonable 3rd pairing defenseman on an appropriate contract. As such, for me, he becomes a non-factor in and of himself.

Exactly, he improved and this is good

Deploying him on the top pair is an abomination

but this is bad.

But I am not going to piss on him for being (yet another player!) misused

 

[David St Hubbins]

(yet another player!) misused