Proposal: New Blood

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

comparing Giroux to Yzerman is a bit much.

 

[Tripod]

A elite center by definition makes the players around him better, see Crosby elevating 3rd line guys, etc. Giroux is no longer elite and never will be again no matter who you put on his line. Three years ago G & V were a top line with Raffl at LW. Before that Hartnell.

People just don't want to accept the commonly known fact that most players peak at 26-28, and Giroux has less margin for error as he ages - which is why he's more effective on the PP (more room, more time) than 5x5.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/when-nhl-players-peak-hockey-metrics-1.2646054
http://www.tsn.ca/pinning-down-a-player-s-prime-performance-years-1.388514

James A. Brander, Edward J. Egan, Louisa Yeung. Estimating the effects of age on NHL player performance. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2014; 0 (0) DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0085

The performance of forwards peaks between the ages of 27 and 28. Defensemen are best between 28 and 29, and the performance of goaltenders varies little by age. Players performed close to their peak levels for a number of years before and after their optimal peak: 24 to 32 for forwards and 24 to 34 for defencemen.

Giroux is a 60-65 points center (30-35 ES) who's limited on defense, and no longer can play on the PK. If he was on a $6M contract the next five years there would be no issue, we could carry him at age 33-34 when he's a 40-50 point winger without much pain. But he's likely to underplay his current contract by a significant margin unless the cap takes off, which is unlikely in the new economic environment (see ESPN layoffs, the force that drove sports revenues is now depleted).

Oh he CAN....but doesn't. And were you not saying using him on the PK was a bad idea and that's what the bottom 6 players were for?

To me, the stat that pops out this past year was his goals scored. That is the difference in his point totals dropping. If he can get that back to where it was, he will be a 65+ point guy next year. But he needs to be a 20+ goal guy for sure.

 

[captainpaxil]

Giroux is Getting older and opposition can lean on him pretty tough with added depth common ng in and a true scorer on the way plus another year to heal I for see a return to form for g.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

dont have all the numbers in front of me but didnt Raffl had a unsustainable shooting percentage the year he potted 21 in 67 games?

He shot a 15.7% & had 134 shots on goal in 67 games. He was averaging 2 shots on goal a game that year.

His career average to this point has been 11.9% while averaging 1.6 shots on goal a game.

 

[Curufinwe]

comparing Giroux to Yzerman is a bit much.

Yzerman was the brunt of a lot of criticism in Detroit and was almost traded before he won his first Cup as a 32 year old.

 

[deadhead]

Oh he CAN....but doesn't. And were you not saying using him on the PK was a bad idea and that's what the bottom 6 players were for?

Giroux short-handed:

2015-16: GA60 9.11 GA60rel 2.45
2014-15: GA60 9.13 GA60rel 1.39
2013-14: GA60 8.06 GA60rel 2.88
2012-13: GA60 3.81 GA60rel -1.39
2011-12: GA60 6.73 GA60rel -1.03
2010-11: GA60 5.29 GA60rel -1.05

Once upon a time he was a very good PK guy, but not the last four years - you want to give up less goals than your pairings (i.e. negative GA60rel).

 

[Tripod]

Yzerman was the brunt of a lot of criticism in Detroit and was almost traded before he won his first Cup as a 32 year old.

My opinion for awhile was that us winning a cup would be on the backs of the young D, not on the backs of G, Jake and Simmonds. G and Jake could easily play a Hossa like role in Chicago where he was not the main offensive guy, but a steady vet.

And with adding #2 overall, we have hope that that guy can relieve the offensive pressure from those guys. I think TK and Lindblom can as well.

The biggest thing is that the #2 pick could be helping us next year, whereas the #13 pick was likely 2-4 years away. That could change how Hextall views the next 2 years.

 

[Curufinwe]

Well Lidstrom was 27 when they beat us in 97. Not young, but five years younger than Yzerman.

Hossa is an interesting case amidst all the doom and gloom you read about Giroux and Voracek being signed through their early 30s. Without signing him to a deal that expires when he's 42, Chicago probably doesn't win any of those Cups.

 

[Magua]

Giroux short-handed:

2015-16: GA60 9.11 GA60rel 2.45
2014-15: GA60 9.13 GA60rel 1.39
2013-14: GA60 8.06 GA60rel 2.88
2012-13: GA60 3.81 GA60rel -1.39
2011-12: GA60 6.73 GA60rel -1.03
2010-11: GA60 5.29 GA60rel -1.05

Once upon a time he was a very good PK guy, but not the last four years - you want to give up less goals than your pairings (i.e. negative GA60rel).

This is a very reductive explanation. You're using goal data in a small sample on the PK, when really shot suppression is the better evaluator of how you are as a PKer in talent. Granted his shot suppression numbers aren't great the last couple years on the PK either. Though in 13-14, they were fantastic as usual, but the goal numbers weren't breaking his way. So who did he PK mainly with in those 2 years after? Umberger? The worst PKer maybe ever in White? That affects things. When Giroux-Laughton were a PK pair last year, they did very well, so how do you make sense of that?

Maybe you can explain to me why over the last 3 years, Couturier is only one above Giroux in GA/60? But one of the best in CA/60? Is he a bad PKer? Has his game aged and slipped at 23-24? VDV and PEB have better GA/60 numbers, and significantly worse CA/60 numbers. Is that their transcendent PK talent shining brighter than Couturier's? Or is that what can happen in small fluky samples, which is what PK goal data pretty much is, with the flukiness of goalies too?

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Yzerman was the brunt of a lot of criticism in Detroit and was almost traded before he won his first Cup as a 32 year old.

on that end I agree.

 

[Curufinwe]

If Giroux was still a regular PKer, he'd be above 20 minutes a game total.

There's no need for him to do more than take some DZ draws when you have a bunch of forwards who should be able to kill penalties in 17-18. At least six of these 10 guys should be on the team.

Couturier
Simmonds
Filppula
Bellemare
Read
Laughton
Raffl
Lindblom
Vecchione
Leier

 

[daa5250]

People are literally calling Giroux a #2 center because he only put up 60 points. Ignoring the fact we suck and that our coach has us playing like a ****** version of the Kings. This board better pray that Sanheim/Myers/Provorov/Ghost are studs and help carry the offense because we're going to need them.

Giroux scored at a 4th liner rate at 5v5 and was 13th among flyer forwards in 5v5 scoring per time on ice this year.

Giroux absolutely was not a 1C this past season. He was a mere PP specialist who struggled at 5v5.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

Giroux scored at a 4th liner rate at 5v5 and was 13th among flyer forwards in 5v5 scoring per time on ice this year.

Giroux absolutely was not a 1C this past season. He was a mere PP specialist who struggled at 5v5.

Does PP scoring count as half or does 5v5 count as double ?

 

[deadhead]

Studies have shown that PP scoring is the last to go as a player ages, first goal scoring, then ES scoring and finally PP scoring. This makes sense, first goes the quick twitch reflexes and power of a good goal scorer, then the legs that allow a player to drive action ES, but on the PP, where a player has more room and time, experience can compensate for declining physical skills.

So going forward they should limit Giroux' ES minutes and keep him fresh for his most productive role, running the PP. One advantage of increased depth is they can spot him, avoid bad matchups and situations where he can be rag dolled.

 

[Tripod]

Does PP scoring count as half or does 5v5 count as double ?

I have no issue if someone says Giroux needs to better at ES. I think everyone agrees with that.

But yeah, when people ONLY use ES to determine a players worth, it just makes no sense. But it's funny when those same people don't like to hear how good Couts is at ES since you know, he is only a 3rd liner.

ANd when it comes to Giroux, he is the MAIN cog in our PP. He makes everything happen. He is the reason why others post good PP numbers. But that just gets ignored.

And if we only go by ES points, does that mean Brandon Saad is the 18th best player in the league? Or that Zucker is better than Seguin?

 

[Stizzle]

Does PP scoring count as half or does 5v5 count as double ?

Is is so hard to admit that he needs to be much better 5v5? His 5v5 production is not acceptable.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

Is is so hard to admit that he needs to be much better 5v5? His 5v5 production is not acceptable.

Sure it does. Couts is 109th in the league in 5v5 scoring and he's our best guy. The whole team is terrible at it and I'm a believer that Berube and Hakstol are prime reasons why.

 

[deadhead]

The real problem is the people who insist Giroux is the same player he was three years ago, and all he has to do is recover from his injury and at age 30 he'll play like he did at age 25, even though all evidence indicates otherwise.

This doesn't mean he won't have value going forward, but it's unlikely he'll live up to the remaining five years of his contract. His primary value will be as the PP captain, but if he's the #1 C at even strength this team will never seriously compete for the Cup. If Nico/Nola, Rubtsov and Vorobyov can step up in 2-3 years and join Couts, Giroux can be moved to wing, remain productive and be sheltered from major defensive responsibilies. He won't be worth his salary, but he can still be a productive player on the ice.

 

[daa5250]

It's always the same predictable people who are out of touch with reality. It's no coincidence that they agree with each other.

People who actually watch games know what's up, the rest just come here to complain about nothing.

Peopl3 who actually watch games know what's up? Out of touch with reality?

You said Giroux was the same physically as he always was and had zero part in his poor play. Then when Giroux said in interviews that you were wrong you refused to admit you were wrong.

You're the farthest from reality here and refuse to admit u are wrong even when its completely proven.

 

[hatcher]

Peopl3 who actually watch games know what's up? Out of touch with reality?

You said Giroux was the same physically as he always was and had zero part in his poor play. Then when Giroux said in interviews that you were wrong you refused to admit you were wrong.

You're the farthest from reality here and refuse to admit u are wrong even when its completely proven.

Spot on dude.

 

[Striiker]

Peopl3 who actually watch games know what's up? Out of touch with reality?

You said Giroux was the same physically as he always was and had zero part in his poor play. Then when Giroux said in interviews that you were wrong you refused to admit you were wrong.

You're the farthest from reality here and refuse to admit u are wrong even when its completely proven.

Here ya go

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=132131423&postcount=140

Find someone to read it to you.

 

[hatcher]

Sing is important but more important when the games get tougher after xmas. You better score in oct and nov when the checking is really there.

 

[daa5250]

Does PP scoring count as half or does 5v5 count as double ?

Its pretty simple that your franchise #1 center cant score at a 4th liner rate at 5v5 where 90% of the game is played ... I shouldnt have to defend that stance any more. That's a PP specialist and nowhere close to a true #1 center.

 

[deadhead]

Oh, I expect Giroux will bounce back next year especially if they give him a LW like Lindblom, I can see him in the 60-70 point range the next two years before he starts fading away.

 

[daa5250]

Oh, I expect Giroux will bounce back next year especially if they give him a LW like Lindblom, I can see him in the 60-70 point range the next two years before he starts fading away.

Agreed. But he certainly didnt play at #1C level this past season.