Proposal: New Blood

[hatcher]

Giroux has been matched with every good forward the last three years, at some point you have to accept he is what he is, a 60-65 point center who's limited defensively because of his size and lack of elite speed. If you have put great players on his line to get #1 production out of him he's not in the same class as the top centers in the NHL.

He's a solid #2 center now being paid like a #1. Pure and simple.

Flyers can afford his salary the next few years but the last couple years (age 33-34) on his deal may get really ugly if the cap doesn't rise by 20-30% by that time.

Exactly. He was bad last year. Hope he bounces back but I have been saying that for 3 seasons and it gets worse. He ****ed up so many 2 on 1's just due to skating it was crazy to watch.

 

[WIP CALLER]

deadhead, name 1 pure scorer that Giroux has played with in the last 3 years or ever in his career? calling Giroux a solid number 2 center is quite possibly one the dumbest posts you've ever submitted and that's saying something.

 

[hatcher]

deadhead, name 1 pure scorer that Giroux has played with in the last 3 years or ever in his career? calling Giroux a solid number 2 center is quite possibly one the dumbest posts you've ever submitted and that's saying something.

He never really made any plays at all to make players better around him. Look at Crosby's line mates right now. Hope he bounces back.

 

[Striiker]

It's always the same predictable people who are out of touch with reality. It's no coincidence that they agree with each other.

People who actually watch games know what's up, the rest just come here to complain about nothing.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Giroux does need a shoot first guy on his wing. No one can argue against that.

 

[StevensCakeBakerBacker]

Giroux does need a shoot first guy on his wing. No one can argue against that.

I would trade away some real talent to get that for G.

I would love to see him having someone that capitalizes on the opportunities he creates.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

People are literally calling Giroux a #2 center because he only put up 60 points. Ignoring the fact we suck and that our coach has us playing like a ****** version of the Kings. This board better pray that Sanheim/Myers/Provorov/Ghost are studs and help carry the offense because we're going to need them.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

I would trade away some real talent to get that for G.

I would love to see him having someone that capitalizes on the opportunities he creates.

who do you trade tho? I am all for tweaking the top 6. Schenn alone doesnt get that, and yeah you could trade Simmonds but you lose other things he brings when you trade him. Jake makes a lot of money.
Its easy to say you can trade them, but I dont know if it is that easy.

 

[deadhead]

A elite center by definition makes the players around him better, see Crosby elevating 3rd line guys, etc. Giroux is no longer elite and never will be again no matter who you put on his line. Three years ago G & V were a top line with Raffl at LW. Before that Hartnell.

People just don't want to accept the commonly known fact that most players peak at 26-28, and Giroux has less margin for error as he ages - which is why he's more effective on the PP (more room, more time) than 5x5.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/when-nhl-players-peak-hockey-metrics-1.2646054
http://www.tsn.ca/pinning-down-a-player-s-prime-performance-years-1.388514

James A. Brander, Edward J. Egan, Louisa Yeung. Estimating the effects of age on NHL player performance. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2014; 0 (0) DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0085

The performance of forwards peaks between the ages of 27 and 28. Defensemen are best between 28 and 29, and the performance of goaltenders varies little by age. Players performed close to their peak levels for a number of years before and after their optimal peak: 24 to 32 for forwards and 24 to 34 for defencemen.

Giroux is a 60-65 points center (30-35 ES) who's limited on defense, and no longer can play on the PK. If he was on a $6M contract the next five years there would be no issue, we could carry him at age 33-34 when he's a 40-50 point winger without much pain. But he's likely to underplay his current contract by a significant margin unless the cap takes off, which is unlikely in the new economic environment (see ESPN layoffs, the force that drove sports revenues is now depleted).

 

[Curufinwe]

Schenn and Simmonds are shoot first guys, and they piled up 5 on 5 points with G in 15-16.

Giroux just had a down season following his surgery.

 

[Striiker]

Giroux doesn't make the players around him better?

 

[Petr Svoboda Mullet]

Schenn and Simmonds are shoot first guys, and they piled up 5 on 5 points with G in 15-16.

Giroux just had a down season following his surgery.

It has been a well documented injury to overcome, typically a year to get back to full strength. I think we'll see Giroux more to his usual form next season.

Either way, a pretty large make or break season for him in terms of how the rest of that contract will turnout.

 

[CerpinTaxt]

Giroux has been matched with every good forward the last three years, at some point you have to accept he is what he is, a 60-65 point center who's limited defensively because of his size and lack of elite speed. If you have put great players on his line to get #1 production out of him he's not in the same class as the top centers in the NHL.

He's a solid #2 center now being paid like a #1. Pure and simple.

Flyers can afford his salary the next few years but the last couple years (age 33-34) on his deal may get really ugly if the cap doesn't rise by 20-30% by that time.

I'm pretty sure youre the poster who says Schenn-Couturier-Weise works because of chemistry, yet balk at the idea when people suggest Giroux would be more effective with a pure goal scorer. You just say nope. Giroux is done. 60 point player. No longer elite. Cant maximize his skill set anymore. Over and done with.

Did it ever occur to you that we know Giroux isn't Crosby? In fact, no one is Crosby besides Crosby. He is truly an exceptional talent, and that doesn't take anything away from Giroux. Hartnell scored 37 goals, up from 24 that previous season, in his age 29-30 season. Hmmm I wonder if he all the sudden got super good in his "declining" years, or I wonder if it had something to do with someone he was playing with? Yada yada Giroux was 24 at the time but playmaking is not something that you lose dramatically as you get older. Just take Joe Thorton as an example (not saying Giroux is Thorton before you want to harp about that).

 

[deadhead]

Schenn and Simmonds are shoot first guys, and they piled up 5 on 5 points with G in 15-16.

Giroux just had a down season following his surgery.

Giroux ES:

2010-11: 14-36 50
2011-12: 22-31 53
2012-13: 10-32 42 (Prorated)
2013-14: 21-28 49
2014-15: 11-25 36
2015-16: 15-23 38
2016-17: 11-21 32 (Prorated w/o Jan & Feb)

Giroux PP:
2010-11: 8-13 21
2011-12: 8-11 19
2012-13: 10-24 34 (Prorated)
2013-14: 7-30 37
2014-15: 14-23 37
2015-16: 6-21 27
2016-17: 5-26 31

I don't know how you look at the last three seasons and not see an obvious decline from his peak years when he was 23-26 years old. He's sustained his PP production for the most part, which is the last to go as a player ages, but his goal scoring and ES scoring have declined.

Blaming it on linemates is a red herring.
We're seeing exactly what all the studies would suggest would happen.

 

[Curufinwe]

I think Yzerman is a good comparison for Giroux. Just because a center is on the smaller side doesn't mean he can't be effective into his 30s.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=18904

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Did it ever occur to you that we know Giroux isn't Crosby? In fact, no one is Crosby besides Crosby. He is truly an exceptional talent

Meh. I think of him more as a tampon carton, and less as an exceptional talent. Maybe that's just me.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Schenn and Simmonds are shoot first guys, and they piled up 5 on 5 points with G in 15-16.

Giroux just had a down season following his surgery.

Simmonds gets a ton of those dirty goals. now there is nothing wrong with that, just think Giroux needs a different kind of winger who can score anywhere on the ice. I really dont consider Simmonds or Schenn pure snipers.

 

[hatcher]

I think Yzerman is a good comparison for Giroux. Just because a center is on the smaller side doesn't mean he can't be effective into his 30s.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=18904

Y was damn near crippled when he won his last cup and was still awesome. G is not Stevie Y.

 

[hatcher]

It's not the points so much as he is a no show most nights.

 

[Curufinwe]

His best seasons of 11-12 and 13-14 came with Hartnell/Jagr and Hartnell/Voracek and his usual linemates. They aren't snipers, either.

I think having guys like Lindblom, Weal, Nico/Nolan available as top 9 options for the whole season will help all the centers.

 

[hatcher]

The last years of Stvie Y is like G now. Not so great but that last cup run was awesome for Y.

 

[WIP CALLER]

yeah giroux doesn't make the players around him better... raffls goal scoring hasn't been affected at all by being taken off of Girouxs line... hes a 20 goal scorer with or without Giroux right?

 

[deadhead]

I think Yzerman is a good comparison for Giroux. Just because a center is on the smaller side doesn't mean he can't be effective into his 30s.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=18904

His peak years were from age 22-27. Averaged 122 points.
Injured at age 28 and 29
Solid from 30-31, averaged 90 points, 74% of his peak years
Three good but not great seasons from 32-34, averaged 74 points, 61% of his peak years.

So if Giroux averages 74% of his peak year production the next two seasons, 76 x .74 = 56 points the next two seasons, then 46 points the last three years of his contract.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

dont have all the numbers in front of me but didnt Raffl had a unsustainable shooting percentage the year he potted 21 in 67 games?

 

[hatcher]

Were talking this yr not a couple ago and Raffl is **** that has to go. G made him good that yr but wouldn't have this yr.