Player Discussion: Neal Pionk Part 2

Whileee

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May 29, 2010
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Maybe it's an aesthetic more than an objective viewpoint, but I really like hockey players like Pionk (including playing with). Skilled. Quiet, and tougher than he acts. Will sacrifice to make a play, and can play a physical game even though he's small. Morrissey had these characteristics, but his game is much more passive now than it used to be.
 

DRW204

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Dec 26, 2010
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i like his play this year. wasn't a huge fan of him last season thought PP scoring boosted lots of people impression of him but imo he looks better at 5v5

what do ppl think for a contract for him? might lead Jets dmen in TOI and Pts scored, which are drivers for dmen salaries
Really shows what an astute trade that was for the Jets. They had Trouba all the years he was dominant and when he began to take a step back they were able to trade him for a better defenseman plus a 1st which they used on a defenseman who projects to be better than Trouba.
only thing id say is that we are still missing a legit top pair RD and Morrisseys game fell off a giant cliff after trouba left. 44-8 was a great shut down top pair, and trouba was putting up border line elite 5v5 scoring rates over a 3 year stretch.

but yes, the trade has been strong for us overall.

18-19 also might have been trouba's most impressive year contextually. he was pretty much the last man standing, along with myers, with all the d injuries. and was carrying beaulieu on the top pair
 
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DRW204

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Pionk is playing as the Jets best defender this season, 100%. That may even fit the AINEC tag legitimately haha.
He's also playing better this and last season than Trouba is this and last season.

But let's not also forget how dominant Trouba was when he was here:
Screen-Shot-2021-02-15-at-10-02-19-PM.png


EDIT:
A different model has Trouba as still being better, but also has Pionk trending upwards... which is also interesting to add to the evidence:
troubja94.png

pionkne95.png


So maybe not better than Trouba for sure... but he's definitely been the Jets best dman this season.
i feel like this might be more of a NYR vs WPG team defense post lol. bottom 4 worst GAR-measured seasons are all as Rangers
 
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Gm0ney

Unicorns salient
Oct 12, 2011
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What does Pionk's next deal look like? He's an RFA after this season with arbitration rights. Scores lots - 13th highest-scoring defenseman in the NHL last season and currently 10th so far this year. He's pretty much the Jets' best defenseman right now - but hopefully Samberg and Heinola grow into magic beanstalks in the next year or two.

So what do the Jets do here? 1 year deal and hope to replace him with the kids in 2022? Long term? $5M x 5 years? Would that even be enough? That's kind of the bottom-end for Top 20 scoring D. He could probably get $5M x 1 in arb.
 

DRW204

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Dec 26, 2010
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What does Pionk's next deal look like? He's an RFA after this season with arbitration rights. Scores lots - 13th highest-scoring defenseman in the NHL last season and currently 10th so far this year. He's pretty much the Jets' best defenseman right now - but hopefully Samberg and Heinola grow into magic beanstalks in the next year or two.

So what do the Jets do here? 1 year deal and hope to replace him with the kids in 2022? Long term? $5M x 5 years? Would that even be enough? That's kind of the bottom-end for Top 20 scoring D. He could probably get $5M x 1 in arb.
he's gonna lead this team in pts and possibly TOI for a 2nd year. he might be our highest paid dman
 

Romang67

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Keep in mind that we'll be under a static salary cap for another 2 years. It's a tension between not wanting to lose him which we could if we offer him another bridge deal, and not wanting to offer him too much money over the next 2 years.

He's good though. Even with Samberg and Heinola in the pipelines, I think we should do our best to sign him to another 5 years.
 

truck

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he's gonna lead this team in pts and possibly TOI for a 2nd year. he might be our highest paid dman
He was the Jets best D man last year, and he's pacing to do it again.

He will get paid - at least on par with Morrissey - at it will have been well earned.

That said, the reality here is...

If Neal Pionk is your #1D, your defence probably sucks. And the Jets defence definitely sucks.

Morrissey's contract is looking worse and worse.

Can the Jets afford to throw big money at another (ideally) mid-pair D man? Has he developed to the point that he can be banked on a long term top pair guy?
 

truck

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Keep in mind that we'll be under a static salary cap for another 2 years. It's a tension between not wanting to lose him which we could if we offer him another bridge deal, and not wanting to offer him too much money over the next 2 years.

He's good though. Even with Samberg and Heinola in the pipelines, I think we should do our best to sign him to another 5 years.
What Justification would they use to tell him he's worth less money or term that Morrissey?
 

Romang67

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What Justification would they use to tell him he's worth less money or term that Morrissey?
Less money/term than Morrissey specifically? Little to none, other than that Morrissey signed his contract when it was looking like the salary cap would keep increasing.

Less money/term than an anonymous D-man who carries the 26th highest cap hit among D-men in the NHL? I think a stronger argument can be made there. But I don't expect Pionk to sign for much less than Morrissey. If he does, it will be because of the static cap.
 
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garret9

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Really shows what an astute trade that was for the Jets. They had Trouba all the years he was dominant and when he began to take a step back they were able to trade him for a better defenseman plus a 1st which they used on a defenseman who projects to be better than Trouba.

I think it's no accident that for both of them their worst years are in NY. I am coming back to writing at Hockey Graphs and got an article going out about these models and how they are really good but still require some context and nuance.

But ya, definitely worked out for Jets so far... although there is another model that's really good that paints a slightly different picture. It suggests that Trouba still better than Pionk but neither worth Trouba's current contract.
 

garret9

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i feel like this might be more of a NYR vs WPG team defense post lol. bottom 4 worst GAR-measured seasons are all as Rangers

Ya. The bottom model I think tends to be better on defenders because it uses previous years as priors and I think that's needed as Dmen are important but I still view forwards as being the stronger driver of most results.

It's year-to-year is much more stable (as you'd expect) and still pictures Trouba as better, albeit not a huge gap.
 
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Teemusalami204

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Jul 30, 2014
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Guy is better then morrisey. Watched him stand up mcdavid a few times. Including a nice hip check.there was a game in the game between our best dman and the best player in the world last night and he held his own. This is what a top pairing dman does.
 

Jet

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He was the Jets best D man last year, and he's pacing to do it again.

He will get paid - at least on par with Morrissey - at it will have been well earned.

That said, the reality here is...

If Neal Pionk is your #1D, your defence probably sucks. And the Jets defence definitely sucks.

Morrissey's contract is looking worse and worse.

Can the Jets afford to throw big money at another (ideally) mid-pair D man? Has he developed to the point that he can be banked on a long term top pair guy?
I would try and pull the trigger on a deal that sends Morrissey + out for a legit mid 20's top pair guy. I think Morrissey has enough of a good reputation that teams would take a bet that he'll return to form with a change of scenery.

I'd love to get a guy like Parayko.
 
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Adam da bomb

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I think it's no accident that for both of them their worst years are in NY. I am coming back to writing at Hockey Graphs and got an article going out about these models and how they are really good but still require some context and nuance.

But ya, definitely worked out for Jets so far... although there is another model that's really good that paints a slightly different picture. It suggests that Trouba still better than Pionk but neither worth Trouba's current contract.
There’s also the intangibles like Trouba really did not want to be here so I wonder how that affects the locker room. Also whether Pionk is willing to sign long term for less than 8 mil. Than there is Heinola as comparing the two because of the trade you can’t forget we also got Heinola.
 
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Jetsfan79

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Jul 12, 2011
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Although Pionk has played really good recently, lets see how he does after 40 games or so. Recency bias is coloring a lot of opinions right now. Having said that, we still win the Trouba trade even if he regresses to last years regular season's performance (which was still pretty good)
 

DRW204

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Dec 26, 2010
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Ya. The bottom model I think tends to be better on defenders because it uses previous years as priors and I think that's needed as Dmen are important but I still view forwards as being the stronger driver of most results.

It's year-to-year is much more stable (as you'd expect) and still pictures Trouba as better, albeit not a huge gap.
also this exemplifies how good trouba was for us for from 15-19

2 of his top 3 were in shortened years (due to hold out and injury)

10.2 GAR cumulated in 55 gp
8.9 GAR in 60 GP

wonder where he ranks league wide in GAR/60 during this stretch of years.
 

snowkiddin

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Although Pionk has played really good recently, lets see how he does after 40 games or so. Recency bias is coloring a lot of opinions right now. Having said that, we still win the Trouba trade even if he regresses to last years regular season's performance (which was still pretty good)
Pionk was significantly better than Trouba last year too. I love this trade for us, and it’s a typical NYR blunder.
 

voyageur

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Jul 10, 2011
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I would try and pull the trigger on a deal that sends Morrissey + out for a legit mid 20's top pair guy. I think Morrissey has enough of a good reputation that teams would take a bet that he'll return to form with a change of scenery.

I'd love to get a guy like Parayko.

I'd like to keep Morrissey. I think some of his current numbers, and maybe the elevation of some of Trouba's numbers with the Jets had to do with playing behind Lowry-Copp, who were possession drivers. Lowry-Copp did not spend most of their time defending.

Now you get linked to Scheifele, and Scheifele has some good shifts, but he's never been a cycle kind of player. He also cheats a little offensively. Well that's more defending, and you are still playing against high level players with Scheifele.

Honestly I'd like to see us run

Morrissey-Samberg
Forbort-Pionk (I think that Forbort would re-sign given the Duluth connection and Lowry behind the bench, who probably has something to do with his deployment)
Heinola-De Melo

by next year

Balances out.
Keep some bigger d-men on the roster too, in replacement roles.

I'd offer Pionk $6.5 million X 5 years. Can't say that he is just a PP guy now, as he is putting up some ES points this year. By far the most composed d-man we have with the puck.
 

DEANYOUNGBLOOD17

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May 10, 2011
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If I had to choose between Jomo and Pionk
I keep Pionk every time

Josh is the better D-man hands down.

Pionk has 2 RFA years owed to the team after this one.

Pionk should sign a 4-5 year contract with Jets in the 5 mill-$5.2 mill range.

His high point totals the last 2 years are inflated by his usage with the Jets high. Octane offensive forwards.
If he was another team his point totals would be much lower!

Josh Morrissey will turn it around and will be the key to our defence for the next 7.5 years left on his contract.

If Buff / Myers/ and Chairot would have stayed and played on the Jets last year ...... Pionk s usage would have been totally different and we would be looking to re sign Pionk this summer at 4 mill per season over 5 years!!!
 

Adam da bomb

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Josh is the better D-man hands down.

Pionk has 2 RFA years owed to the team after this one.

Pionk should sign a 4-5 year contract with Jets in the 5 mill-$5.2 mill range.

His high point totals the last 2 years are inflated by his usage with the Jets high. Octane offensive forwards.
If he was another team his point totals would be much lower!

Josh Morrissey will turn it around and will be the key to our defence for the next 7.5 years left on his contract.

If Buff / Myers/ and Chairot would have stayed and played on the Jets last year ...... Pionk s usage would have been totally different and we would be looking to re sign Pionk this summer at 4 mill per season over 5 years!!!
We have to hope jmo turns it around, with Pionk we already know we have a great D who merely has to maintain.
Also Myers is a train wreck I’d rather Pionk than chariot or Myers any day.
If it was easy to produce with this high octane offense Jmo’s numbers would be much higher. Especially now he is playing with the pp 1.
 
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