Nazem "the dream" Kadri- discussion #1 million?

[Pookie]

We know we don't talk about posters right?

Done.

Though I was curious about why a prediction of 50 that actually landed on 49 was considered a fail.

Hey, did you see the rolling 82 game total I posted for you back a few pages?

 

[Nithoniniel]

So whats to suggest that Nazem will continue to play that way? He hasnt exactly been choosy with his shooting. Perhaps his shooting percentage is so incredibly low because he is shooting so much more. I see no reason to believe that his shots per game and hits will remain double his career average.

(to be clear, im not saying that they actually will, but it seems silly to assume that everything bad is an outlier that will correct itself while everything positive is a definite improvement that will remain. If you are aguing that one will improve to means, you must also accept that others will regress.)

I already answered you on this earlier. I'll just quote myself:

Sure, it might. The difference is this:

Shooting percentage is almost guaranteed to go up a lot over the course of the season. The tactical changes, ie getting told to shoot more, might lower it a bit, but that could be a difference of a 1-2%, not 10%.

Shot generation might go down to a degree over the course of the season. Considering contextual and tactical reasons, players can improve shot generation drastically without it being unsustainable. It's probable that he won't sustain this incredible pace in shot and chance generation, but chances are good that the drop would be minor compared to the increase in percentage.

They are not equal factors.

Bolded the last part for emphasis.

It's not about one being bad and one being good. It's about two factors that work differently, and taking that into account.

One can also see it like this. Every year there are plenty of players who increase their shot and chance generation in a manner similar to Kadri, for many that is a development step that they can, in some shape, sustain.

Every year there are also players who start out as bad as Kadri has in shooting percentage. In an overwhelming majority of the cases, this evens out by the end of the season. It never ends up a sustained long-term decrease of a similar magnitude.

 

[ULF_55]

Done.

Though I was curious about why a prediction of 50 that actually landed on 49 was considered a fail.

Hey, did you see the rolling 82 game total I posted for you back a few pages?

There is nothing wrong with an 82 game rolling total.

We both expect it to increase over time, and by the end of this year it would be the same as today, the latest 82 games.

No one would have an issue with an upward trending performance, and 82 games eliminates cold and hot streak measurements.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Done.

Though I was curious about why a prediction of 50 that actually landed on 49 was considered a fail.

Hey, did you see the rolling 82 game total I posted for you back a few pages?

The previous season he played at a 69 point pace. 50 points would be more than a 25% drop in PPG production. (Let me know if you have trouble with the math here Pookie).

When you set the bar so low that it's basically buried in the ground, you'd better clear it with a ton of room to spare because tripping over it like Bozak did would be embarrassing.

 

[Pookie]

The previous season he played at a 69 point pace. 50 points would be more than a 25% drop in PPG production. (Let me know if you have trouble with the math here Pookie).

When you set the bar so low that it's basically buried in the ground, you'd better clear it with a ton of room to spare because tripping over it like Bozak did would be embarrassing.

So, he missed it by 1 and that's what you are getting all bothered about? 49 vs 50?

As an aside, I can do math. Kadri's drop in production over that same time frame is 22%.

As a man once said, "When you set the bar so low that it's basically buried in the ground, you'd better clear it with a ton of room to spare because tripping over it like (Kadri) did would be embarrassing?" Here's hoping he can up his production with these minutes and better line mates.

 

[Pookie]

There is nothing wrong with an 82 game rolling total.

We both expect it to increase over time, and by the end of this year it would be the same as today, the latest 82 games.

No one would have an issue with an upward trending performance, and 82 games eliminates cold and hot streak measurements.

Dang, maybe people should use the last 82 games for comparison.

Makes much more sense than just the first 15 games of this season.

No issue at all. We evaluate our business based on rolling 12 months and other metrics.

Here's the rolling 82

[pre]
G A P +/- PIM PP SH S S%
15 23 38 -11 38 3 1 205 7.32%
[/pre]

 

[wmark]

No issue at all. We evaluate our business based on rolling 12 months and other metrics.

Here's the rolling 82

[pre]
G A P +/- PIM PP SH S S%
15 23 38 -11 38 3 1 205 7.32%
[/pre]

Pookie, what's your obsession with Kadri?

You post way to much about him, it's as if it were your job.

 

[Gary Nylund]

So, he missed it by 1 and that's what you are getting all bothered about? 49 vs 50?

As an aside, I can do math. Kadri's drop in production over that same time frame is 22%.

As a man once said, "When you set the bar so low that it's basically buried in the ground, you'd better clear it with a ton of room to spare because tripping over it like (Kadri) did would be embarrassing?" Here's hoping he can up his production with these minutes and better line mates.

Bothered? LOL no, I was amused.

The equivalent would be if I took Kadri's 44 point pace last year, and then tried to goad people into betting me that he won't hit 33 points this year. Then if he only hit 32 points for the year I would "pull a Pookie" and brag that he almost accomplished this lofty goal.

BTW Pookie, I'll bet you Kadri ends up with more points this year than Bozak. Of if you prefer, I'll bet he gets more PPG, or more P/60, or more goals, or more assists, whatever you like. I figure if nothing else, you should jump all over the PPG or P/60 bet, after all Bozak is ahead in those categories and I know how big you are on projections.

Let me know which bet(s) you're up for.

 

[Pookie]

Bothered? LOL no, I was amused.

The equivalent would be if I took Kadri's 44 point pace last year, and then tried to goad people into betting me that he won't hit 33 points this year. Then if he only hit 32 points for the year I would "pull a Pookie" and brag that he almost accomplished this lofty goal.

BTW Pookie, I'll bet you Kadri ends up with more points this year than Bozak. Of if you prefer, I'll bet he gets more PPG, or more P/60, or more goals, or more assists, whatever you like. I figure if nothing else, you should jump all over the PPG or P/60 bet, after all Bozak is ahead in those categories and I know how big you are on projections.

Let me know which bet(s) you're up for.

Why would I do that? Is anyone here arguing he is are better? Similar maybe but not better.

Gary, you had a message from yourself from yesterday:

It's really a shame that you are unable to evaluate Kadri without bringing Bozak into it.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Why would I do that? Is anyone here arguing he is are better? Similar maybe but not better.

Gary, you had a message from yourself from yesterday:

I'll take that to mean that you don't want to bet?

 

[Pookie]

You mean the one where I think Kadri will have more points than Bozak? Yeah, I don't see the point in me betting against myself.

How did that 50 point bet work out for you last year, the one you are championing now? Did you get involved when it came to it? I see Durr did. Maybe yours was deleted?

??

 

[Gary Nylund]

You mean the one where I think Kadri will have more points than Bozak? Yeah, I don't see the point in me betting against myself.

How did that 50 point bet work out for you last year, the one you are championing now? Did you get involved when it came to it? I see Durr did. Maybe yours was deleted?

??

I didn't make any best last year Pookie nor am I "championing" anything. Not sure why this is confusing to you.

Keep those projections coming though, or to put it another way - don't ever change Pookie. Things would be that much duller around here if you did.

 

[Pookie]

You know a rolling 82 game total isn't a projection, it's what happened.

My mistake, I thought when you brought up the bet to make fun of another poster you were using it as a put down.

My bad. I was thrown off by two little things there, your tone and the actual words you used.