Gamer2006
Registered User
- Oct 8, 2014
- 19
- 0
Hello to everyone. "Low scoring" has close relationship to my rankings and i will try to explain my point of view. Some time ago i looked closely at different scoring levels in NHL. Major changes happened after 95-96 season. Before it was alot easer to score and my rankings and points per game (ppg) potential is for low scoring hockey starting from 96-97 season. But last 3 seasons NHL hockey has changed so much i can't even call it hockey. To help you understand i think every player at his best has a certain ppg ceiling. Sometimes players can have inflated ppg (1,2 times in a career), i don't think they play better those seasons. Let me show you ppg tiers and examples of players for seasons from 96-97 to 13-14 (except 05-06 and 06-07, increased number of power play has lead to inflated ppg in those seasons):
1,5-1,6 ppg (isn't sure about 1,6) - Jagr, Lindros (i think he was at this level, but his career was destroyed), Ovechkin (but after Vancouver OG he lost big part of his talent i think due to some psychological trauma), Crosby, Mcdavid.
1,4 - Selanne, Forsberg, Sakic, Malkin.
1,1 - Bure, Alfredsson, St. Louis, Iginla, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lecavalier, Heatley, Kovalchuk, Spezza, Getzlaf, Giroux, Stamkos and others.
Last 3 seasons ppg of all players with ceiling of 1,1 and higher has decreased.
1,5-1,6 decreased to 1-1,1, maybe 1,2
1,4 to 1-1,1
1,1 to 0,7-0,9
Starting from 1,1 ppg all players have good/elite skating ability. Partly they gain points by moving and thinking fast. Some 0,7-1 ppg players also have this dynamic abilities, ppg of those players also decreased (for example Toews). It seems they adapt, but i doubt we would see best ppg from them in this new "hockey".
While those who play static or positional hockey, including all bad skaters and some defensemens, lose nothing and some of them even gain inflated ppg from time to time. Also maybe you noticed some 3/4 line forwards get more points in this period, it's because practically all NHL hockey is now positional.
You can say teams score almost same amount of goals as before, but this isn't indicative at all for best forwards.
True hockey consists of positional and dynamic parts. My version is that last 3 seasons terrible officiating blocked dynamic part of hockey leaving us with only positional. Best players now can't show dynamic hockey and bad skaters lose nothing, i think it's unacceptable situation. NHL should fix hockey.
Now rankings.
To clarify - 1,5 is 1,51-1,60 ppg. Probability of reaching them in parentheses. If you want to know how ppg would look like in KHL, add approximately 0,3 (for example Radulov - 1,4 in KHL, 1,1 in NHL).
My rankings for previous drafts and additional info links:
2010-2014 - http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1802725
2015 - http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1913521
2016.
1) Vitali Abramov (F) - 1,5-1,6 (95%).
2) Dmitri Sokolov (F) - 1-1,6 (50%), 0,9 (95%).
3) Alexander Podkorytov (F) - 1,2-1,4 (5%), 1-1,1 (50%), 0,9 (90%), 0,8 (95%).
Auston Matthews (F) - 1,1 (10%), 1 (70%), 0,9 (90%), 0,8 (95%).
4) Igor Shvyryov (F) - 1,4-1,6 (5%), 1-1,1 (10%), 0,9 (90%).
Tyler Benson (F) - 1,1 (5%), 0,9-1 (50%), 0,8 (95%).
Patrik Laine (F) - 1,1 (5%), 1 (10%), 0,9 (70%), 0,8 (95%).
5) Jesse Puljujarvi (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,8 (90%), 0,7 (95%).
6) Matthew Tkachuk (F), Clayton Keller (F), Adam Mascherin (F), Nikita Popugaev (F), Mikhail Meshcheryakov (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,7-0,8 (50%).
Sean Day (HB) - 0,6-0,9 (50%), 0,5 (90%), def. (0,1%).
7) Jakob Chychrun (HB) - 0,8-0,9 (20%), 0,6-0,7 (50%), 0,5 (90%), def. (0,1%).
8) Sam Steel (F), Brandon Saigeon (F), Mitchell Balmas (F), Jonathan Dahlen (F), Maxim Chuvilov (F), Maxim Bain (F) - 0,7-0,8 (10%).
Charlie McAvoy (D).
9) Pierre-Luc Dubois (F), Max Jones (F), Rasmus Asplund (F), Kieffer Bellows (F), William Bitten (F), Carl Grundstrom (F), Tyson Jost (F), Jordan Kyrou (F), Alexander Nylander (F), German Rubtsov (F), Mark Verba (F) - 0,8 (2%), 0,7 (5%).
Mikhail Sergachyov (D), Jacob Cederholm (D).
10) Travis Barron (F), Logan Brown (F), Julien Gauthier (F), Brett Howden (F), Luke Kirwan (F), Beck Malenstyn (F), Michael McLeod (F), Taylor Raddysh (F), Riley Tufte (F) - 0,8 (1%), 0,7 (2%).
Jake Bean (D, HB), Kale Clague (D, HB), Dante Fabbro (D, HB), Luke Green (D, HB), Olli Juolevi (D, HB), Chad Krys (D, HB), Victor Mete (D, HB), Alexander Yakovenko (D, HB).
2017.
Weakest draft in a long time.
1) Nolan Patrick (F), Pavel Koltygin (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,8 (90%), 0,7 (95%).
2) Nico Hischier (F), Martin Necas (F), Jordy Bellerive (F), Nick Suzuki (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,7-0,8 (50%).
Miro Heiskanen (D).
Stuart Skinner (G).
3) Kailer Yamamoto (F) - 0,8 (10%), 0,7 (50%).
4) Cody Glass (F), Klim Kostin (F), Elias Pettersson (F), Eeli Tolvanen (F) - 0,7-0,8 (10%).
5) Gabriel Vilardi (F), Owen Tipett (F), Casey Mittelstadt (F), Matthew Strome (F), Lucas Elvenes (F), Nikita Popugaev (F) - 0,8 (2%), 0,7 (5%).
Timothy Liljegren (D), Cale Makar (D), Juuso Valimaki (D), Urho Vaakanainen (D), Conor Timmins (D), Max Gildon (D).
6) Lias Andersson (F), Filip Chytil (F), Ryan Poehling (F), Morgan Frost (F), Jason Robertson (F), Shane Bowers (F), Kole Lind (F), Josh Norris (F), Joel Teasdale (F), Kristian Vesalainen (F), Alexei Toropchenko (F) - 0,8 (1%), 0,7 (2%).
Callan Foote (D), Nicolas Hague (D), Erik Brannstrom (D), Reilly Walsh (D), Dmitri Samorukov (D).
7) Michael Rasmussen (F), Isaac Ratcliffe (F), Maxime Comtois (F), Robert Thomas (F).
2018.
Preliminary list of most notable russian prospects:
1) Alexander Zhabreyev (F) - 1-1,6 (70%), 0,9 (80%).
2) Yegor Zamula (D) - 0,8 (80%), def. (50%).
3) Vladislav Kotkov (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,8 (90%), 0,7 (95%).
Artemi Mutovin (F) - 1,1 (5%), 0,7-1 (50%).
4) Nikita Rtishchev (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,7-0,8 (50%).
5) Andrei Svechnikov (F), Grigori Denisenko (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,7-0,8 (20%).
1,5-1,6 ppg (isn't sure about 1,6) - Jagr, Lindros (i think he was at this level, but his career was destroyed), Ovechkin (but after Vancouver OG he lost big part of his talent i think due to some psychological trauma), Crosby, Mcdavid.
1,4 - Selanne, Forsberg, Sakic, Malkin.
1,1 - Bure, Alfredsson, St. Louis, Iginla, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lecavalier, Heatley, Kovalchuk, Spezza, Getzlaf, Giroux, Stamkos and others.
Last 3 seasons ppg of all players with ceiling of 1,1 and higher has decreased.
1,5-1,6 decreased to 1-1,1, maybe 1,2
1,4 to 1-1,1
1,1 to 0,7-0,9
Starting from 1,1 ppg all players have good/elite skating ability. Partly they gain points by moving and thinking fast. Some 0,7-1 ppg players also have this dynamic abilities, ppg of those players also decreased (for example Toews). It seems they adapt, but i doubt we would see best ppg from them in this new "hockey".
While those who play static or positional hockey, including all bad skaters and some defensemens, lose nothing and some of them even gain inflated ppg from time to time. Also maybe you noticed some 3/4 line forwards get more points in this period, it's because practically all NHL hockey is now positional.
You can say teams score almost same amount of goals as before, but this isn't indicative at all for best forwards.
True hockey consists of positional and dynamic parts. My version is that last 3 seasons terrible officiating blocked dynamic part of hockey leaving us with only positional. Best players now can't show dynamic hockey and bad skaters lose nothing, i think it's unacceptable situation. NHL should fix hockey.
Now rankings.
To clarify - 1,5 is 1,51-1,60 ppg. Probability of reaching them in parentheses. If you want to know how ppg would look like in KHL, add approximately 0,3 (for example Radulov - 1,4 in KHL, 1,1 in NHL).
My rankings for previous drafts and additional info links:
2010-2014 - http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1802725
2015 - http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1913521
2016.
1) Vitali Abramov (F) - 1,5-1,6 (95%).
2) Dmitri Sokolov (F) - 1-1,6 (50%), 0,9 (95%).
3) Alexander Podkorytov (F) - 1,2-1,4 (5%), 1-1,1 (50%), 0,9 (90%), 0,8 (95%).
Auston Matthews (F) - 1,1 (10%), 1 (70%), 0,9 (90%), 0,8 (95%).
4) Igor Shvyryov (F) - 1,4-1,6 (5%), 1-1,1 (10%), 0,9 (90%).
Tyler Benson (F) - 1,1 (5%), 0,9-1 (50%), 0,8 (95%).
Patrik Laine (F) - 1,1 (5%), 1 (10%), 0,9 (70%), 0,8 (95%).
5) Jesse Puljujarvi (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,8 (90%), 0,7 (95%).
6) Matthew Tkachuk (F), Clayton Keller (F), Adam Mascherin (F), Nikita Popugaev (F), Mikhail Meshcheryakov (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,7-0,8 (50%).
Sean Day (HB) - 0,6-0,9 (50%), 0,5 (90%), def. (0,1%).
7) Jakob Chychrun (HB) - 0,8-0,9 (20%), 0,6-0,7 (50%), 0,5 (90%), def. (0,1%).
8) Sam Steel (F), Brandon Saigeon (F), Mitchell Balmas (F), Jonathan Dahlen (F), Maxim Chuvilov (F), Maxim Bain (F) - 0,7-0,8 (10%).
Charlie McAvoy (D).
9) Pierre-Luc Dubois (F), Max Jones (F), Rasmus Asplund (F), Kieffer Bellows (F), William Bitten (F), Carl Grundstrom (F), Tyson Jost (F), Jordan Kyrou (F), Alexander Nylander (F), German Rubtsov (F), Mark Verba (F) - 0,8 (2%), 0,7 (5%).
Mikhail Sergachyov (D), Jacob Cederholm (D).
10) Travis Barron (F), Logan Brown (F), Julien Gauthier (F), Brett Howden (F), Luke Kirwan (F), Beck Malenstyn (F), Michael McLeod (F), Taylor Raddysh (F), Riley Tufte (F) - 0,8 (1%), 0,7 (2%).
Jake Bean (D, HB), Kale Clague (D, HB), Dante Fabbro (D, HB), Luke Green (D, HB), Olli Juolevi (D, HB), Chad Krys (D, HB), Victor Mete (D, HB), Alexander Yakovenko (D, HB).
2017.
Weakest draft in a long time.
1) Nolan Patrick (F), Pavel Koltygin (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,8 (90%), 0,7 (95%).
2) Nico Hischier (F), Martin Necas (F), Jordy Bellerive (F), Nick Suzuki (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,7-0,8 (50%).
Miro Heiskanen (D).
Stuart Skinner (G).
3) Kailer Yamamoto (F) - 0,8 (10%), 0,7 (50%).
4) Cody Glass (F), Klim Kostin (F), Elias Pettersson (F), Eeli Tolvanen (F) - 0,7-0,8 (10%).
5) Gabriel Vilardi (F), Owen Tipett (F), Casey Mittelstadt (F), Matthew Strome (F), Lucas Elvenes (F), Nikita Popugaev (F) - 0,8 (2%), 0,7 (5%).
Timothy Liljegren (D), Cale Makar (D), Juuso Valimaki (D), Urho Vaakanainen (D), Conor Timmins (D), Max Gildon (D).
6) Lias Andersson (F), Filip Chytil (F), Ryan Poehling (F), Morgan Frost (F), Jason Robertson (F), Shane Bowers (F), Kole Lind (F), Josh Norris (F), Joel Teasdale (F), Kristian Vesalainen (F), Alexei Toropchenko (F) - 0,8 (1%), 0,7 (2%).
Callan Foote (D), Nicolas Hague (D), Erik Brannstrom (D), Reilly Walsh (D), Dmitri Samorukov (D).
7) Michael Rasmussen (F), Isaac Ratcliffe (F), Maxime Comtois (F), Robert Thomas (F).
2018.
Preliminary list of most notable russian prospects:
1) Alexander Zhabreyev (F) - 1-1,6 (70%), 0,9 (80%).
2) Yegor Zamula (D) - 0,8 (80%), def. (50%).
3) Vladislav Kotkov (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,8 (90%), 0,7 (95%).
Artemi Mutovin (F) - 1,1 (5%), 0,7-1 (50%).
4) Nikita Rtishchev (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,7-0,8 (50%).
5) Andrei Svechnikov (F), Grigori Denisenko (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,7-0,8 (20%).