My rankings for 16-17-18 NHL drafts and thoughts about "low scoring" last 3 seasons.

[Gamer2006]

Hello to everyone. "Low scoring" has close relationship to my rankings and i will try to explain my point of view. Some time ago i looked closely at different scoring levels in NHL. Major changes happened after 95-96 season. Before it was alot easer to score and my rankings and points per game (ppg) potential is for low scoring hockey starting from 96-97 season. But last 3 seasons NHL hockey has changed so much i can't even call it hockey. To help you understand i think every player at his best has a certain ppg ceiling. Sometimes players can have inflated ppg (1,2 times in a career), i don't think they play better those seasons. Let me show you ppg tiers and examples of players for seasons from 96-97 to 13-14 (except 05-06 and 06-07, increased number of power play has lead to inflated ppg in those seasons):

1,5-1,6 ppg (isn't sure about 1,6) - Jagr, Lindros (i think he was at this level, but his career was destroyed), Ovechkin (but after Vancouver OG he lost big part of his talent i think due to some psychological trauma), Crosby, Mcdavid.

1,4 - Selanne, Forsberg, Sakic, Malkin.

1,1 - Bure, Alfredsson, St. Louis, Iginla, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lecavalier, Heatley, Kovalchuk, Spezza, Getzlaf, Giroux, Stamkos and others.

Last 3 seasons ppg of all players with ceiling of 1,1 and higher has decreased.

1,5-1,6 decreased to 1-1,1, maybe 1,2
1,4 to 1-1,1
1,1 to 0,7-0,9

Starting from 1,1 ppg all players have good/elite skating ability. Partly they gain points by moving and thinking fast. Some 0,7-1 ppg players also have this dynamic abilities, ppg of those players also decreased (for example Toews). It seems they adapt, but i doubt we would see best ppg from them in this new "hockey".

While those who play static or positional hockey, including all bad skaters and some defensemens, lose nothing and some of them even gain inflated ppg from time to time. Also maybe you noticed some 3/4 line forwards get more points in this period, it's because practically all NHL hockey is now positional.

You can say teams score almost same amount of goals as before, but this isn't indicative at all for best forwards.

True hockey consists of positional and dynamic parts. My version is that last 3 seasons terrible officiating blocked dynamic part of hockey leaving us with only positional. Best players now can't show dynamic hockey and bad skaters lose nothing, i think it's unacceptable situation. NHL should fix hockey.

Now rankings.

To clarify - 1,5 is 1,51-1,60 ppg. Probability of reaching them in parentheses. If you want to know how ppg would look like in KHL, add approximately 0,3 (for example Radulov - 1,4 in KHL, 1,1 in NHL).

My rankings for previous drafts and additional info links:
2010-2014 - http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1802725
2015 - http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1913521

2016.

1) Vitali Abramov (F) - 1,5-1,6 (95%).

2) Dmitri Sokolov (F) - 1-1,6 (50%), 0,9 (95%).

3) Alexander Podkorytov (F) - 1,2-1,4 (5%), 1-1,1 (50%), 0,9 (90%), 0,8 (95%).
Auston Matthews (F) - 1,1 (10%), 1 (70%), 0,9 (90%), 0,8 (95%).

4) Igor Shvyryov (F) - 1,4-1,6 (5%), 1-1,1 (10%), 0,9 (90%).
Tyler Benson (F) - 1,1 (5%), 0,9-1 (50%), 0,8 (95%).
Patrik Laine (F) - 1,1 (5%), 1 (10%), 0,9 (70%), 0,8 (95%).

5) Jesse Puljujarvi (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,8 (90%), 0,7 (95%).

6) Matthew Tkachuk (F), Clayton Keller (F), Adam Mascherin (F), Nikita Popugaev (F), Mikhail Meshcheryakov (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,7-0,8 (50%).

Sean Day (HB) - 0,6-0,9 (50%), 0,5 (90%), def. (0,1%).

7) Jakob Chychrun (HB) - 0,8-0,9 (20%), 0,6-0,7 (50%), 0,5 (90%), def. (0,1%).

8) Sam Steel (F), Brandon Saigeon (F), Mitchell Balmas (F), Jonathan Dahlen (F), Maxim Chuvilov (F), Maxim Bain (F) - 0,7-0,8 (10%).

Charlie McAvoy (D).

9) Pierre-Luc Dubois (F), Max Jones (F), Rasmus Asplund (F), Kieffer Bellows (F), William Bitten (F), Carl Grundstrom (F), Tyson Jost (F), Jordan Kyrou (F), Alexander Nylander (F), German Rubtsov (F), Mark Verba (F) - 0,8 (2%), 0,7 (5%).

Mikhail Sergachyov (D), Jacob Cederholm (D).

10) Travis Barron (F), Logan Brown (F), Julien Gauthier (F), Brett Howden (F), Luke Kirwan (F), Beck Malenstyn (F), Michael McLeod (F), Taylor Raddysh (F), Riley Tufte (F) - 0,8 (1%), 0,7 (2%).

Jake Bean (D, HB), Kale Clague (D, HB), Dante Fabbro (D, HB), Luke Green (D, HB), Olli Juolevi (D, HB), Chad Krys (D, HB), Victor Mete (D, HB), Alexander Yakovenko (D, HB).

2017.

Weakest draft in a long time.

1) Nolan Patrick (F), Pavel Koltygin (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,8 (90%), 0,7 (95%).

2) Nico Hischier (F), Martin Necas (F), Jordy Bellerive (F), Nick Suzuki (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,7-0,8 (50%).

Miro Heiskanen (D).

Stuart Skinner (G).

3) Kailer Yamamoto (F) - 0,8 (10%), 0,7 (50%).

4) Cody Glass (F), Klim Kostin (F), Elias Pettersson (F), Eeli Tolvanen (F) - 0,7-0,8 (10%).

5) Gabriel Vilardi (F), Owen Tipett (F), Casey Mittelstadt (F), Matthew Strome (F), Lucas Elvenes (F), Nikita Popugaev (F) - 0,8 (2%), 0,7 (5%).

Timothy Liljegren (D), Cale Makar (D), Juuso Valimaki (D), Urho Vaakanainen (D), Conor Timmins (D), Max Gildon (D).

6) Lias Andersson (F), Filip Chytil (F), Ryan Poehling (F), Morgan Frost (F), Jason Robertson (F), Shane Bowers (F), Kole Lind (F), Josh Norris (F), Joel Teasdale (F), Kristian Vesalainen (F), Alexei Toropchenko (F) - 0,8 (1%), 0,7 (2%).

Callan Foote (D), Nicolas Hague (D), Erik Brannstrom (D), Reilly Walsh (D), Dmitri Samorukov (D).

7) Michael Rasmussen (F), Isaac Ratcliffe (F), Maxime Comtois (F), Robert Thomas (F).

2018.

Preliminary list of most notable russian prospects:

1) Alexander Zhabreyev (F) - 1-1,6 (70%), 0,9 (80%).

2) Yegor Zamula (D) - 0,8 (80%), def. (50%).

3) Vladislav Kotkov (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,8 (90%), 0,7 (95%).
Artemi Mutovin (F) - 1,1 (5%), 0,7-1 (50%).

4) Nikita Rtishchev (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,7-0,8 (50%).

5) Andrei Svechnikov (F), Grigori Denisenko (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,7-0,8 (20%).

Click to read more...

 

[Patrik Barkov]

Am I reading this wrong or are you saying Abramov has a 95% chance to be a 123-131 point player?

 

[Esko6]

There were three russians better than Matthews in the draft. This is preposterous...

 

[ijuka]

I feel like you might be overrating Russians a tad bit.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Can you tell us exactly how this system works and was created? Because at first glance, a system that says Abramov has a 95% chance of scoring 20-30 points more than the Art Ross winner did this season sounds like a load of hogwash.

 

[Gamer2006]

Am I reading this wrong or are you saying Abramov has a 95% chance to be a 123-131 point player?

You get it right. I'm sure about him.

Can you tell us exactly how this system works and was created? Because at first glance, a system that says Abramov has a 95% chance of scoring 20-30 points more than the Art Ross winner did this season sounds like a load of hogwash.

I just use everythink i know about hockey. Please read the description, you will understand better. I don't think Abramov is better than Crosby or Mcdavid, i think he is as good.

I know many will think i'm biased or even inadequate. Don't hesitate to leave any comments, i will not be offended.

 

[Elias Pettersson]

Lol what is this....

 

[seafoam]

I still don't understand your rating system.

 

[tony d]

I respect your opinion and the method but I doubt very much Abramov becomes a 100 point or more scorer.

 

[snipes]

Classic

 

[avsfan09]

Goddamn. I wish I had a time machine to go back and get the last three minutes of my life back.

 

[Erikfromfin]

Big fan of your rankings nice job!

 

[biotk]

I know many will think i'm biased or even inadequate.

Not me. I think that we need more of this kind of bold predictions on here.

Predictions you made in late 2014:

Kuznetsov (F) - 1,3-1,4 (90%). (best from 2010 draft by a significant margin - far, far ahead of Taylor, Seguin and Tarasenko)

Alexei Marchenko (D) - 0,6-0,7 (5%), 0,5 (50%), 0,4 (90%), def. 80%. (You ranked him 2nd among D for the 2011 draft, ahead of Dougie Hamilton among others. He did not come close to cracking the full-time lineup in either Detroit or Toronto and has left for the KHL).

From 2012 draft - top forward: Nail Yakupov (F) - 1,5-1,6 (90%). (Amazing. keep in mind that this prediction was made in December 2014 after it was already known with pretty strong certainty that Yakupov was a complete bust.....but apparently he was still a 123+ point player).

From 2012 - second top forward: Mikhail Grigorenko (F) - 1,5-1,6 (1%), 1-1,1 (50%), 0,9 (90%).

From 2013 draft - top forward: Valeri Nichushkin (F) - 1,4 (90%). (he has already returned to the KHL, falling a little short of his 115 point potential).

2nd top forward from 2013 draft year (went undrafted, probably for very good reasons) Grigori Dikushin (F) - 1,2-1,4 (50%), 1,1 (90%). (90% chance he hits 90 point seasons in the NHL...yet hasn't come close to cracking a KHL team or any team in a halfway decent league.)

There was a 6-way tie for the top player from the 2014 draft year (again several were undrafted, but they had the necessary qualifications to be the best from that year - ie Russian): Artur Lauta (1 point in 26 games in the KHL this year),
Maxim Lazarev (destroyed the KHL this year with 4 points in 35 games), Ivan Nikolishin (might someday play a game in the KHL, but doubtful) Nikolay Goldobin (5 points in 23 NHL games) and Jakub Vrana (6 points in 21 NHL games), plus Nylander.

In 2015 the number 2 (again undrafted, but apparently far better than Eichel) was Arseni Eltyshev (who has never played a game in the KHL, picked up a whopping 2 points in MHL last season and should apparently be good for 90+ points in the NHL (95%)

 

[AUAIOMRN]

Remember folks: On the internet, anyone can write anything.

Link: His 2010-2014 rankings

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Abramov?

 

[VoluntaryDom]

I don't think Abramov is better than Crosby or Mcdavid, i think he is as good.

Read this again.

 

[Tretyak 20]

I still don't understand your rating system.

It apparently involves a lot of vodka.

 

[HaNotsri]

It's not on the hockey dogs level of off season thread but still 5/5.
I looked into your old rankings and 2010 (if I remember correctly) seems to be solid and the rest is, well, let's say "experimental".

When it comes to your thoughts about scoring I'm with you, even though your argument is simplified. Part of the positional improvement comes from increased overall mobility. Refs need to call interference again. I also think that an adjustment of rink size could help (a bit broader, same distance between goals).

 

[AmericanDream]

It apparently involves a lot of vodka.

that made my day!!

 

[Brock Radunske]

Swing and a miss...

 

[Advanced stats]

Ovechkin (but after Vancouver OG he lost big part of his talent i think due to some psychological trauma).

"Curious" about the whole thing, but especially this bit...

What psychological trauma do you think ovi went through after Vancouver 2010?

Also just letting you know that I don't think Pavel Koltigyn will be as good as you think. He only put up 47 points in the Qmjhl.





And your whole list is... strange

 

[93LEAFS]

Abramov ahead of Matthews and Laine is just comical at this point. Whatever methodology you use to come to the conclusion that Abramov has a 95% chance of being a Crosby level player is so flawed or designed to give the desired results its not even worth examining. It seems looking at your rankings, you have an extremely nationalistic bias.

No scouting service, nor attempt to project Abramov's future has anywhere near the results you have given. If he was as good as you claim, he would have blown past Crosby's Q numbers due to being a year older.

 

[aigledefeu]

Podkorytov, an undrafted prospect ahead of matthews...

 

[Tripod]

How is this still open?

 

[LordNeverLose]

I respect your opinion and the method but I doubt very much Abramov becomes a 100 point or more scorer.

Uh, I don't.