Proposal: MTL - NSH

[Porter Stoutheart]

I haven't kept up with the preds but are they in win now mode or are they rebuilding/retooling?

We don't exactly know for sure. Not "rebuilding" anyway. Ideally "win now", except with wins not happening it confuses the issue, makes it impossible to be a Buyer at the trade deadline anyway. More like "win next season" than strictly "win right now".

So you get something that is most likely more like a mini-retool. Let the impending UFAs go - maybe not at the TDL though, maybe just walking as UFAs. Look to tweak a few things in the summer if possible - sign another UFA D, possibly trade a center since there's a logjam there, etc. I think Poile will take one more kick at the can with this team, slightly tweaked, and the new coach before he does anything very dramatic.

I don't think acquiring Weber would fit into the parameters of what Poile is likely contemplating.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The thing that supposedly seems so dramatic about Weber though is the magnitude in the later year retirement scenarios. A $24M recapture is bigger than the whole NHL salary cap range. The NHL won't force that magnitude of recapture on the Preds, that is 100% certain.

Now, when you get to the lower earlier retirement levels, like Luongo, sure, no need to let us off the hook for a paltry $3M or $4M. But Weber isn't going to retire that soon anyway. And then there are the whole already-well-documented circumstances surrounding that contract - it is unique from every other cap-circumventing contract ever signed in that Nashville didn't design it, didn't want it, had no intentions of creating a contract structure to circumvent the cap. It was a poison pill we were forced to swallow. It has been hashed out ad nauseum here already, folks can dig up the threads from before if they care.

Bottom line, other fans can keep worrying about it on our behalf if you really like. We're not worried. And there's zero value to us in trading for Weber with that issue as any part of the motivation.

This is probably how it goes down...

- Weber won't play those last 3 years of $1M salary. He retires after his age 37 season
- NHL and all Teams vote on changing the formula for his situation cause the Flyers forced the Preds hand with the hostile offer sheet. Maybe they change his AAV in the recapture penalty formula from $7.86M (14 years) to $10M (11 years) where they subtract the last 3 years. That would be $5.33M of cap hits for 3 years.

What happens if Luongo plays this year? He almost decided to play. That would have changed the $3M cap hit the Canucks have at the moment for 3 years to $4.5M for 2 years.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

If I was the Canucks, I would fight tooth and nail for no adjustment to be made for the recapture. I would be livid if the Preds got any break on it.

If and big if, the league allowed concessions to made, the Preds should have the choice to take the full hit or forfeit draft picks to lower the hit.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Of course he feels some loyalty

Its the organization he started his career on and became a star with, and they always treated hom well. He didnt leave on bad terms or anything. Im sure he's not out to screw them over.

Hes also 34 this year and you could argue he was a top 3-5 D for most of the season. Defensemen like him tend to age quite well. I dont see why he would retire early if he still plays at a strong level. Good chance he'd play till 40, maybe even slightly past that

Not after he was traded out of the blue. Regardless, loyalty or not, it's risky to fake an injury for 3 years and put yourself in a situation to be investigated by insurance companies and the NHL.

Weber would have to be careful for 3 years and look over his shoulder with any activity he does in his lifestyle from 38-40. For $3M when he has earned $122M in his NHL Career? I think not

 

[Captain Mountain]

Weber isn't close to retiring, he's still playing at a very high level.

If I was the Canucks, I would fight tooth and nail for no adjustment to be made for the recapture. I would be livid if the Preds got any break on it.

If and big if, the league allowed concessions to made, the Preds should have the choice to take the full hit or forfeit draft picks to lower the hit.

They might get a break on it depending on the feasibility of actually icing a team due to how recapture might play out, but no team has gotten a pass from recapture, so unless Nashville can force something into the new CBA, its unlikely they'd get a break in such a scenario, confidence of management be damned.

 

[Soundgarden]

Question is what would that trade be? what would be acceptable for the habs to trade him back to the preds?

If we're talking a few years from now, if he's declined to the point of retirement the most I would do is a late pick or future considerations. This recapture thing is really not going to be a big deal.

If I was the Canucks, I would fight tooth and nail for no adjustment to be made for the recapture. I would be livid if the Preds got any break on it.

If and big if, the league allowed concessions to made, the Preds should have the choice to take the full hit or forfeit draft picks to lower the hit.

Lol, nah.

 

[Galaxydoggystyle]

This is probably how it goes down...

- Weber won't play those last 3 years of $1M salary. He retires after his age 37 season
- NHL and all Teams vote on changing the formula for his situation cause the Flyers forced the Preds hand with the hostile offer sheet. Maybe they change his AAV in the recapture penalty formula from $7.86M (14 years) to $10M (11 years) where they subtract the last 3 years. That would be $5.33M of cap hits for 3 years.

What happens if Luongo plays this year? He almost decided to play. That would have changed the $3M cap hit the Canucks have at the moment for 3 years to $4.5M for 2 years.

What I don't get is when you and others say the Flyers "forced" the preds hand" to take the contract no one forced them tho they had a choice of accepting the draft picks or keeping him. I don't see the "forcing" of anything to be quite honest.

 

[bobholly39]

The thing that supposedly seems so dramatic about Weber though is the magnitude in the later year retirement scenarios. A $24M recapture is bigger than the whole NHL salary cap range. The NHL won't force that magnitude of recapture on the Preds, that is 100% certain.

Now, when you get to the lower earlier retirement levels, like Luongo, sure, no need to let us off the hook for a paltry $3M or $4M. But Weber isn't going to retire that soon anyway. And then there are the whole already-well-documented circumstances surrounding that contract - it is unique from every other cap-circumventing contract ever signed in that Nashville didn't design it, didn't want it, had no intentions of creating a contract structure to circumvent the cap. It was a poison pill we were forced to swallow. It has been hashed out ad nauseum here already, folks can dig up the threads from before if they care.

Bottom line, other fans can keep worrying about it on our behalf if you really like. We're not worried. And there's zero value to us in trading for Weber with that issue as any part of the motivation.

I don't know if i agree with the bolded.

I've stated that I think Weber is a high integrity player, who has no intention of trying to screw over his previous team/fanbase by retiring early. I also think he's still in top form, and there's a very good chance he'll remain a good player till age 40 and have no reason to even retire.

But the one thing i'm certain of is - if Nashville did trade for him and if Weber was a part of the Nashville team - he 100% would not try to screw them over by retiring early. He'd either play out his contract, or LITR if there was a legitimate reason.

I think Nashville planning to trade back for him at some point down the road should be in the cards.

Also - I agree with your logic and reasoning that the NHL may intervene if such a recapture presented itself. But - I still think it'd be smart for Nashville to try to get ahead of it, vs risk it blowing up in their faces should the NHL not stop in, or not stop in to the degree you would want them to.

 

[Habs Halifax]

If I was the Canucks, I would fight tooth and nail for no adjustment to be made for the recapture. I would be livid if the Preds got any break on it.

If and big if, the league allowed concessions to made, the Preds should have the choice to take the full hit or forfeit draft picks to lower the hit.

Exactly. And what about the other teams who listen to the warnings from Bettman not to do it back when? They would be on the Canucks side as well.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

They might get a break on it depending on the feasibility of actually icing a team due to how recapture might play out, but no team has gotten a pass from recapture, so unless Nashville can force something into the new CBA, its unlikely they'd get a break in such a scenario, confidence of management be damned.

That's how I feel about it, with no dog in the race. It sucks for the Preds, but so is the precedent the league set with Lou.

If we're talking a few years from now, if he's declined to the point of retirement the most I would do is a late pick or future considerations. This recapture thing is really not going to be a big deal.



Lol, nah.

Hope for Weber to get a skin rash when he turns 37.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Question is what would that trade be? what would be acceptable for the habs to trade him back to the preds?

I can't see us giving up more than a handful of "chaff" to get Weber back... not something that the Habs would or should take seriously as a trade offer, anyway. Like a 2nd round pick, not-great prospect, some surplus roster player you don't particularly want (Turris, Jarnkrok type). At that sort of scrapheap level, sure, we'd take Shea back. We could use him. But we don't need him specifically. We have other options to pursue in the summer to address our needs, far more affordably than even that "chaff" offer level. So I can't see this going anywhere. Besides, the Habs love Weber don't they? Why would they even consider trading him?

 

[Galaxydoggystyle]

If we're talking a few years from now, if he's declined to the point of retirement the most I would do is a late pick or future considerations. This recapture thing is really not going to be a big deal.



Lol, nah.

Weber is playing at a high level but he has been injured quite a bit the past two seasons. We don't know how this next injury is going to effect him. They call it a lower body injury which is probably going to slow Weber down even more and he was already a slow player.

 

[bobholly39]

Not after he was traded out of the blue. Regardless, loyalty or not, it's risky to fake an injury for 3 years and put yourself in a situation to be investigated by insurance companies and the NHL.

Weber would have to be careful for 3 years and look over his shoulder with any activity he does in his lifestyle from 38-40. For $3M when he has earned $122M in his NHL Career? I think not

I don't think he'll fake an injury.

But if he has 1 or 2 years left on his contract, and is considering retirement or continuing to play - the fact that if he retired he could be royally screwing over Nashville would probably be a big reason for him to continue playing that extra year and not screw them over.

 

[Galaxydoggystyle]

I can't see us giving up more than a handful of "chaff" to get Weber back... not something that the Habs would or should take seriously as a trade offer, anyway. Like a 2nd round pick, not-great prospect, some surplus roster player you don't particularly want (Turris, Jarnkrok type). At that sort of scrapheap level, sure, we'd take Shea back. We could use him. But we don't need him specifically. We have other options to pursue in the summer to address our needs, far more affordably than even that "chaff" offer level. So I can't see this going anywhere. Besides, the Habs love Weber don't they? Why would they even consider trading him?

Oh we love Weber I am just thinking logically I rather get something for Weber at the end then nothing at all type of thing.

 

[Habs Halifax]

What I don't get is when you and others say the Flyers "forced" the preds hand" to take the contract no one forced them tho they had a choice of accepting the draft picks or keeping him. I don't see the "forcing" of anything to be quite honest.

The Flyers forced their hand cause they wanted to retain their player and not take the futures. Bettman was giving out warnings not to sign those cap circumventing contracts too but legally could not do anything until the next CBA was negotiated.

They Flyers are not 100% innocent here cause they ignored the warning from the NHL not to do it. However, they didn't benefit from a $7.857M AAV with a $14M salary either... The Preds did. Did the Preds know what the next CBA would look like and how the recapture penalty would be introduced?

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Exactly. And what about the other teams who listen to the warnings from Bettman not to do it back when? They would be on the Canucks side as well.

I think the issue I would have is that the recapture gets lowered with no consequence. The draft pick penalty would probably be enough to quiet the owners/GM's who would be for giving the Preds a cut.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don't think he'll fake an injury.

But if he has 1 or 2 years left on his contract, and is considering retirement or continuing to play - the fact that if he retired he could be royally screwing over Nashville would probably be a big reason for him to continue playing that extra year and not screw them over.

Rethink that one. If he plays, the cap hit is still $7.57M. Do you think Weber will be a top 4D from 38-40?

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think the issue I would have is that the recapture gets lowered with no consequence. The draft pick penalty would probably be enough to quiet the owners/GM's who would be for giving the Preds a cut.

Where does that draft pick go? What team? Or does everyone just move down one spot? Not so sure they will be nice to the Preds like that. It's likely it gets reduced to some degree but it won't be lower than the Canucks are facing right now

 

[NeverBeNormal]

Hope for Weber to get a skin rash when he turns 37.

Sounds like he's getting one on his foot.

 

[Habs Halifax]

That's how I feel about it, with no dog in the race. It sucks for the Preds, but so is the precedent the league set with Lou.

Hope for Weber to get a skin rash when he turns 37.

Preds should call Weber now to get him to start complaining about the rash now... . Or call the Habs to ask him cause that would be tampering

 

[Galaxydoggystyle]

deleted

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

What I don't get is when you and others say the Flyers "forced" the preds hand" to take the contract no one forced them tho they had a choice of accepting the draft picks or keeping him. I don't see the "forcing" of anything to be quite honest.

That's covered off in the older threads too. Nashville wasn't exactly the thriving hockey market then that it is today. Legit threats of the team moving back then. Philly knew how tough the pill would be to swallow, and they made that contract as nasty as they could. Preds were stuck between a rock and a hard place. And don't forget, recapture didn't exist then - so they had no way of knowing there would be any further ramifications.

 

[yianik]

Oh yes, Bettman's NHL is so above reproach. Im thinking about that Machiavellian stunt that was pulled by the league through the duped Bergevin to knock John Scott out of the All Star game. What a load of BS that was. An embarrasement for the Habs organization.

If Weber gets a career ending rash., its a career ending rash. Look into me eyes and F off says Weber , its career ending.

 

[cactusjack]

- If the Habs trade Weber this summer, we would be on the hook for $4.57M of recapture ourselves (potentially)
- Weber on the Preds roster for the next 3 seasons only offsets their $24M of recapture penalty by $8.57M.
- Does Weber play those last 3 years at $1M from 38-40? Doubt that.

Can the Preds and Weber fake an injury so he goes on LTIR for the last 3 years? That's tricky

If Montreal got a 4,5M penalty, it will be divised by year left ,no? so about 1,5M for last 3 years. Not really worrying. And Nashville will never let him retired with 1 year left. That would be 28 millions if im not mistaken. It would be so bad for them that it's not a scenario we should be worried about.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

They Flyers are not 100% innocent here cause they ignored the warning from the NHL not to do it. However, they didn't benefit from a $7.857M AAV with a $14M salary either... The Preds did. Did the Preds know what the next CBA would look like and how the recapture penalty would be introduced?

The other aspect of it was that it's highly questionable how much salary cap benefit the Predators actually enjoyed as part of that deal. The older thread from last summer had some good data in it. The Preds have not been a spend-to-the-cap team. They actually didn't get any advantage out of a lowered cap hit, because they had enough unused cap room those years to be able to afford to pay Weber a high enough straight AAV without any backdiving or hijinx in the deal. That style of contract was completely unnecessary to the Predators given their payroll structure. The Preds probably have ample documentation of the style of contract they offered to Weber instead at the time, and can easily show the math on their unused cap space over those years. A $24M cap advantage is only an advantage if it lets you artifically exceed the salary cap. If you sat $24M under the cap over those years, did you really get any advantage? No, you just saddled yourself with a $7.857M cap hit on a 40-year old player for no reason. Preds will have lots of ammunition in arguing amnesty on this deal, on multiple fronts.