Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
- 36,244
- 14,753
Moritz Seider & his usage/level of play
- Thread starter Frk It
- Start date
GreatGordie9
Registered User
Henkka
Registered User
Why pay for potential or for cap inflation, when you don't have to?
ALL those damn "young risers" have hanged up their cap with these these 8-year deals for kids too soon. Where are they now?
Out of the playoffs. Out of the damn payoffs. Sellers. Players wanting out. Look at the Sabres and Senators. St. Louis. They did put these 8-years for the new core and they are going nowhere right now.
Short-term deals are the key success for a rise, and that's what Yzerma did at Tampa. Yzerman does not offer 8-years for RFA years. He has never done that, for anyone.
NEVER.
He will only do 8-years for prime, like Larkin and Stamkos, who were already UFAs after their 2nd contracts did end. Same for Hedman.
He has talked about shorter term how he likes more how olayers have to prove themselves. I see 8-year deals a huge country club risk, until you really know how pro the young guys really are.
And there's also the cap factor. When you don't pay too much for the potential, it will leave space for roster depth. Which is always a key for success. There are just multiple factors for Yzerman-way.
You guys should just prepare for that.
Last edited:
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
- 36,244
- 14,753
Never?
He signed Kucherov to a 8 x 9.5 deal prior to coming here that has aged wonderfully. He was a RFA when he signed that.
Yzerman has had no issue doing long term deals when it’s someone he thinks is part of his core.
Rasmussen is the kind of guy you do a bridge deal with, not Seider.
Oddbob
Registered User
- Jan 21, 2016
- 15,936
- 10,480
Henkka
Registered User
There was a 3-year bridge deal as 2nd contract before the 8-year. Maybe that's the Raymond way, who knows.
Yzerman has never signed 8 years after ELC. Guy just thinks different than easy thinkers.
Henkka
Registered User
This is how the term table goes for a certain player.
Example:
Jake Sanderson
Got 8.0M for 8 years.
If the contract would have been shorters, these are the comparable caphits. Taking account first 2 RFA years (without arbitration rights) next 2 RFA years (with arbitration rights) and 4 UFA years after that.
Average caphit is:
8.0M - 8.0M - 8.0M - 8.0M - 8.0M - 8.0M - 8.0M - 8.0M (total 64.0 million)
RFA/UFA modification will make it:
6.5M - 6.5M - 7.5M - 7.5M - 9.0M - 9.0M - 9.0M - 9.0M (total 64.0 million)
Then happens the cap inflation (estimated 5% per year)
Inflation modification will change the yearly values:
5.34M - 5.61M - 6.82M - 7.17M - 9.06M - 9.51M - 9.99M - 10.5M
So, in 8-year deal, the first year is approximately double the value of the last 8th year.
Then the final table for shorter terms will look like this. At 7-year deal, it will cut the 10.5M value of the total value. At 6-year deal it will cut the combines 7th and 8th year out from the total value. And so on.
8-year, 8.00M caphit per year
7-year, 7.64M
6-year, 7.25M
5-year, 6.80M
4-year, 6.23M
3-year, 5.92M
2-year, 5.47M
1-year, 5.34M
That's the table for Jake Sanderson. They went with 8-years. But shorter terms would have looked like that.
Seider starting point could be higher than Sanderson's. Like that 9.0M.
But if Yzerman will want to cut some term for 5-6 year deals, the value table would look like:
8-year, 9.00M caphit per year
7-year, 8.62M
6-year, 8.20M
5-year, 7.72M
4-year, 7.14M
3-year, 6.80M
2-year, 6.33M
1-year, 6.18M
From this value table, I think the target is the 6-year deal. 8.200M value. That would slot him between Larkin and DeBrincat, where he really is internally. The 2nd most important player in the team.
It creates a good hierarchy to build around.
Money can be front-loaded etc. But caphits will just act this way.
Example:
Jake Sanderson
Got 8.0M for 8 years.
If the contract would have been shorters, these are the comparable caphits. Taking account first 2 RFA years (without arbitration rights) next 2 RFA years (with arbitration rights) and 4 UFA years after that.
Average caphit is:
8.0M - 8.0M - 8.0M - 8.0M - 8.0M - 8.0M - 8.0M - 8.0M (total 64.0 million)
RFA/UFA modification will make it:
6.5M - 6.5M - 7.5M - 7.5M - 9.0M - 9.0M - 9.0M - 9.0M (total 64.0 million)
Then happens the cap inflation (estimated 5% per year)
Inflation modification will change the yearly values:
5.34M - 5.61M - 6.82M - 7.17M - 9.06M - 9.51M - 9.99M - 10.5M
So, in 8-year deal, the first year is approximately double the value of the last 8th year.
Then the final table for shorter terms will look like this. At 7-year deal, it will cut the 10.5M value of the total value. At 6-year deal it will cut the combines 7th and 8th year out from the total value. And so on.
8-year, 8.00M caphit per year
7-year, 7.64M
6-year, 7.25M
5-year, 6.80M
4-year, 6.23M
3-year, 5.92M
2-year, 5.47M
1-year, 5.34M
That's the table for Jake Sanderson. They went with 8-years. But shorter terms would have looked like that.
Seider starting point could be higher than Sanderson's. Like that 9.0M.
But if Yzerman will want to cut some term for 5-6 year deals, the value table would look like:
8-year, 9.00M caphit per year
7-year, 8.62M
6-year, 8.20M
5-year, 7.72M
4-year, 7.14M
3-year, 6.80M
2-year, 6.33M
1-year, 6.18M
From this value table, I think the target is the 6-year deal. 8.200M value. That would slot him between Larkin and DeBrincat, where he really is internally. The 2nd most important player in the team.
It creates a good hierarchy to build around.
Money can be front-loaded etc. But caphits will just act this way.
Seider had his maybe best game in wings uniform.
I am glad he took this big step forward as Larkin is injured. He might be our best player on the current roster after all.
The team is struggling big time, we play sc winner, we are without our best player and Seider steps up big time.
I strongly recommend to watch this game again and focus on Seider.
I am glad he took this big step forward as Larkin is injured. He might be our best player on the current roster after all.
The team is struggling big time, we play sc winner, we are without our best player and Seider steps up big time.
I strongly recommend to watch this game again and focus on Seider.
Last edited:
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
- 36,244
- 14,753
This is a very well thought out post. However shaving 2 years off a deal to save 800k is not worth it. Not at all.
norrisnick
The best...
- Apr 14, 2005
- 29,221
- 13,751
Doubly so when you factor in those next 2 years are quite possibly at $12-14M+ if salaries keep leapfrogging.
JediOrderPizza
Registered User
lilidk
Registered User
- Mar 4, 2008
- 9,854
- 3,591
People develop models with accuracy of 60% and treat them as if it's 100%, see subprime
Yup, a $4.7 million bridge for 3 years. But Frk It is right in that he was still set to be an RFA at the end of the bridge and extended him to the big deal.
Nikita Kucherov Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
Nikita Kucherov contract, salary, cap hit, salary cap, aav, career earnings, lifetime earnings, aav, advanced stats, transaction history, trade history, and rfa or ufa free agent status
www.capfriendly.com
19 for president
Registered User
- Apr 28, 2002
- 2,878
- 1,047
I think an 8 year deal for Mo makes the most fiscal sense. If he took a bridge deal I doubt he is getting less than 7 mil. To save 1 or 1.5 mil for a few years, Bridge deals make sense if players could still take years to develop. Mo is already the #1 guy on the Wings and probably a top 15/20 dman in the NHL. 8 mil isn't paying for future potential but where he is right now. In his prime I see Seider being a 50pt defensive rock with a bit of a nasty streak. He's already at a 40-50 point range now.
In contrast a guy like Ray makes more sense to put on a bridge deal because he is still developing, and if you think it will take a few more seasons s before he is in that 8-9mil range where he is going to be a PPG player then a bridge deal makes sense. Maybe you buy a couple of years and earn a couple of mil towards your cap vs production output.
In contrast a guy like Ray makes more sense to put on a bridge deal because he is still developing, and if you think it will take a few more seasons s before he is in that 8-9mil range where he is going to be a PPG player then a bridge deal makes sense. Maybe you buy a couple of years and earn a couple of mil towards your cap vs production output.
Gniwder
Registered User
A bridge deal gives Stevie time to assess Ed and ASP. If they all hit their ceiling, the team won't be able to keep all of them. I am not saying that Stevie will do a bridge deal, but I have not excluded that possibility yet.
It would be pretty funny if Ray got 8 years, and Mo got a bridge. Given Stevie's MO, I would not be surprised if they both got bridge deals. He isn't afraid to trade anyone. I think the only player that's a sure lock to retire as a Red Wing is DBoss out of mutual respect as captains.
Gniwder
Registered User
AlwaysSunnyInDetroit
Registered User
- Oct 1, 2021
- 617
- 852
i think that having cleveland in the system makes seider expendable. signing mo to a 3 year bridge at a modest cap hit would make him a valuable trade chip that would return something nice. having cleveland and ed in the top 4 as soon as next year + the return for seider would make this team a cup favorite for the rest of cleveland's career.
AlwaysSunnyInDetroit
Registered User
- Oct 1, 2021
- 617
- 852
