MMA General Discussion and Fight Announcements 7.0

[m9]

Good article here from Dave Meltzer discussing the ESPN/UFC deal:

How the UFC’s deal with ESPN changes the company’s business

Get into how ESPN is using this UFC deal as a loss leader to get viewers on their new ESPN+. Also mentions that this is a great sign for IME and their investment.

Also talks about something discussed here last week regarding how it makes sense to run less PPV's. This new deal is paying the UFC $10,000,000 per a show. For the UFC to make $10,000,000 off a PPV they need 285,000 buys. In 2017, only 2 PPV's went over 300,000 buys. I think 8 did in 2016.

Essentially the formula should be simple - Conor, GSP, Jones, Rousey, and maybe Bisping, Cormier and Miocic (or whoever the HW champ is) are your guys that should be headlining PPVs. That is a scary thought when you consider that only two of those guys have fights scheduled for this year and they are against each other.

 

[Avs_19]

Bader has to be the favourite in the Bellator HW tournament. I think he's easily the best fighter at the current stage of everyone's careers and the size shouldn't hurt him too much.

Pico continues to impress as well. Eventually he'll have to start fighting better competition but they're doing the right thing bringing him along slowly. He's so skilled and still only 21 years old.

 

[LSCII]

https://www.mmafighting.com/2018/5/...os-humble-gimmick-youre-a-scumbag-and-so-am-i

Amusing story by Chael. Love listening to this guy because he's so blunt while also furthering his gimmick at the same time. Don't think he's got what it takes to win this fight, but with Fedor's decline over the near recent past, who knows?

 

[Rocko604]

Chael Sonnen not buying Fedor Emelianenko’s humble ‘gimmick’: ‘You’re a scumbag and so am I’

Amusing story by Chael. Love listening to this guy because he's so blunt while also furthering his gimmick at the same time. Don't think he's got what it takes to win this fight, but with Fedor's decline over the near recent past, who knows?

I love Chael. Absolutely do not care if he wins/loses. He's got a great shtick, but he's also a very, very good analyst. Not sure how he fits into Bellator with Big John being the #1 colour guy. Would love to see him back in the UFC after Rogan leaves. He can replace Cormier. He's 100x the colour guy DC is.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Report: ESPN brokers deal for UFC broadcast rights currently owned by FOX

ESPN secures the television rights to the UFC as well. And the article suggests there will be no change to the amount of PPV events.

 

[m9]

Report: ESPN brokers deal for UFC broadcast rights currently owned by FOX

ESPN secures the television rights to the UFC as well. And the article suggests there will be no change to the amount of PPV events.

Interesting.

So it seems like the total plan is:

12 PPV + 10 ESPN cards + 20 ESPN+ cards = 42 cards total.

Obviously no #'s for 2018 yet, but to compare to other years there were 39 events in 2017, 41 in 2016, and 41 in 2015.

A bit surprised they have chosen to keep the PPV model the same, at least as of now. Meltzer's article last week did a great job outlining why the model is outdated. I guess when you factor in the prelim cards for those events it is an extra boost, but even in the ESPN news release they mention that the UFC won't have to rely on PPV's as much because of the magnitude of this deal.

In the end, it really just seems like status quo except a switch from Fox to ESPN. Kind of disappointing they didn't adjust the model.

 

[Peter Griffin]

I thought ESPN+ was for 15 events? 10 on ESPN, 15 on ESPN+ and 12 PPV and there's your 37 events. One thing to keep in mind for the PPV model is that they are also getting value by selling the pre-lims to ESPN. ESPN+ paid $150M for 15 events while ESPN paid the same $150M for 10 events + pre-lims. So if you figure each event is worth $10M to ESPN, then those pre-lims are worth around $50M. Divide that number by 12PPV's and there's an extra $4M or so the UFC is getting prior to each PPV event.

 

[Avs_19]

It's disappointing they're not going to cut down the number of events. This is only the ESPN deal as well so there's a chance they may even have some Fight Pass exclusive events in addition to this.

I'm interested in seeing how they treat the 10 ESPN cards. Will those just be the usual random FS1 cards we get now or will they try to make those really matter like they did with the Fox cards early on? If it's the latter then that'll be good for the fans. I just don't see how they can stack those cards though when they have so many others to fill.

 

[Avs_19]

I thought ESPN+ was for 15 events? 10 on ESPN, 15 on ESPN+ and 12 PPV and there's your 37 events.

Looks like they added to it:

ESPN two weeks ago cut a five-year deal worth $150M annually for 15 UFC events that it will stream to its ESPN+ OTT service. Today, the two will announce another five-year deal for $150M per year for 27 more events, including 10 full events and 12 PPV prelims on linear. Five more events will go to ESPN+. UFC will keep the rights to 12 PPV events, the same number it carried this year.

ESPN Taking UFC Package From Fox In Five-Year Deal

So a total of at least 42 events. Hopefully that's it because that's already too much but I don't put it past the UFC to add some to Fight Pass as well if they plan on still pushing that service.

 

[m9]

I thought ESPN+ was for 15 events? 10 on ESPN, 15 on ESPN+ and 12 PPV and there's your 37 events. One thing to keep in mind for the PPV model is that they are also getting value by selling the pre-lims to ESPN. ESPN+ paid $150M for 15 events while ESPN paid the same $150M for 10 events + pre-lims. So if you figure each event is worth $10M to ESPN, then those pre-lims are worth around $50M. Divide that number by 12PPV's and there's an extra $4M or so the UFC is getting prior to each PPV event.

Agreed on the PPV prelims - I mentioned it earlier and that was one thing I missed (and I think Meltzer missed too) when discussing the $ involved. We obviously don't know the full breakdown of how the money is allocated but it has to be factored in as that's a good amount

It's disappointing they're not going to cut down the number of events. This is only the ESPN deal as well so there's a chance they may even have some Fight Pass exclusive events in addition to this.

I'm interested in seeing how they treat the 10 ESPN cards. Will those just be the usual random FS1 cards we get now or will they try to make those really matter like they did with the Fox cards early on? If it's the latter then that'll be good for the fans. I just don't see how they can stack those cards though when they have so many others to fill.

Looks like they added to it:



ESPN Taking UFC Package From Fox In Five-Year Deal

So a total of at least 42 events. Hopefully that's it because that's already too much but I don't put it past the UFC to add some to Fight Pass as well if they plan on still pushing that service.

Yeah, there are still some unanswered questions.. especially for us in Canada. At some point they are really going to want to push people away from cable PPV purchases to buying them online, and with this whole ESPN refresh it would be a great time. I guess the PPV & Fight Pass plan will be the next official things to drop and could be tied together.

 

[Avs_19]

Yeah, there are still some unanswered questions.. especially for us in Canada. At some point they are really going to want to push people away from cable PPV purchases to buying them online, and with this whole ESPN refresh it would be a great time. I guess the PPV & Fight Pass plan will be the next official things to drop and could be tied together.

They haven't commented on it but it doesn't seem like anything is going to change for us in Canada in the short-term. At first I was curious about whether those ESPN+ cards could end up on Fight Pass for us but I'm assuming they'll be on TSN because otherwise they'd lose a ton of content. As it stands right now, the only thing TSN doesn't show are the Fight Pass exclusives. No one seems to know how long the UFC/TSN deal is though so maybe there will be changes whenever that's up.

 

[LSCII]

GSP: Give me Nurmagomedov or McGregor

GSP wants McGregor or Khabib and won't take a fight with Nate Diaz.

 

[m9]

GSP: Give me Nurmagomedov or McGregor

GSP wants McGregor or Khabib and won't take a fight with Nate Diaz.

Makes sense. As a few said around here at the time, fighting Nate Diaz does nothing for GSP as he can get a fight with Khabib or Conor right away.

I honestly have no idea what the plan is for any of these guys now. GSP, Conor, Ferguson, Khabib, and Diaz too. I just want to see some interesting fights.

 

[MaxV]

In what weight would GSP and Conor fight?

There seems to be a significant difference in size there.

Khabib is bigger, I think he’ll move up eventually anyway.

 

[LSCII]

In what weight would GSP and Conor fight?

There seems to be a significant difference in size there.

Khabib is bigger, I think he’ll move up eventually anyway.

In the article, GSP indicated he'd be open to either weight. He said he'd obviously need time if it was 155, but wasn't against it.

 

[m9]

In the article, GSP indicated he'd be open to either weight. He said he'd obviously need time if it was 155, but wasn't against it.

Reading between the lines in that article, I think that GSP has only one goal left: Be a 3-division champ. I think that his next fight will be a title fight at 155 lbs.

 

[Avs_19]

Bellator has Mousasi vs. Carvalho today with Phil Davis and MVP also on the card. It's live right now but they're still doing the tape delay thing for some reason so it won't air in NA until tonight.

 

[LSCII]

So yeah, Nick Diaz doing Diaz bros type of stuff here. No bueno....

Report: Nick Diaz in custody on alleged domestic violence charges in Las Vegas

 

[BGDDYKWL]

That had to be a broken orbital for Rickels right?

We know Bellator is a distant number two talent wise compared to the UFC but fights like Mousasi's really make it obvious. Wasn't even remotely competitive.

Chael cracked me up with Davies up there talking about how he was walking the streets looking for Anthony Joshua. Lol.

 

[Rocko604]

Watched Mauro Ranallo Bipolar Rock n Roller. Holy shit, what a story. I already knew Mauro has biploar disorder, but didn't know anything beyond him just being diagnosed.

 

[Avs_19]

He had a great career and retires with the most wins in UFC history. I wasn't a big fan early on but that changed over time and him finally winning the belt was one of the best moments in recent years. It's unfortunate his last fight ended up being that short notice fight against Gastelum.

 

[LSCII]

Morning Report: Ray Longo says Darren Till was ‘cheating’ by missing weight, ‘did nothing’ vs. Stephen Thompson

Interesting point about guys who miss weight winning more frequently than even PED users. Seems like this is the new strategy. Miss weight by 3 lbs, don't have a taxing cut that drains you so you go in stronger and fresher. I get why you'd call it cheating because it's a clear advantage.

 

[Jasper]

Morning Report: Ray Longo says Darren Till was ‘cheating’ by missing weight, ‘did nothing’ vs. Stephen Thompson

Interesting point about guys who miss weight winning more frequently than even PED users. Seems like this is the new strategy. Miss weight by 3 lbs, don't have a taxing cut that drains you so you go in stronger and fresher. I get why you'd call it cheating because it's a clear advantage.

I totally agree with it. Three pounds is a pretty huge margin in a weight cut. Look at Dern against Cooper. Dern definitely said f*** it and coasted to the fight while Cooper would have busted her ass to make weight and now Dern gets all the glory. Everyone will remember Dern beating Cooper. Dern totally took advantage of the ridiculous rules.

 

[Avs_19]

It looks like everyone (mainly Dana) came to their senses. This fight was reported as being a done deal prior to all of this happening too so I'll wait until it's actually signed but Okamoto is reliable.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Morning Report: Ray Longo says Darren Till was ‘cheating’ by missing weight, ‘did nothing’ vs. Stephen Thompson

Interesting point about guys who miss weight winning more frequently than even PED users. Seems like this is the new strategy. Miss weight by 3 lbs, don't have a taxing cut that drains you so you go in stronger and fresher. I get why you'd call it cheating because it's a clear advantage.

Well in the case of Till, I'm not sure you can say he didn't have a taxing weight cut, he apparently lost vision before the first weigh in. And then with the 2nd weigh in the next day couldn't full re-hydrate so I'm not sure how much of advantage he had there. The problem with guys like Till is that they are attempting to cut so much weight in order to gain an advantage, but are either pushing their bodies to ridiculous extremes or not even making the weight in the first place. But the fact the Brazilian commission allowed the Dern/Cooper fight to take place was pretty ridiculous. Dern barely made weight for the weight class above.