OT: MLB Thread Part VIII: Mets Making Moves; Yanks Trade for Acklol

[Filip Chytil]

I would definitely be interested in a trade like this for the Yankees.

Ross is a top end starter who is Free Agency eligible in 2017. He is a prototypical groundball pitcher who limits the HR ball and that'll be useful in Yankee stadium.

Gyorko has a terrible contract and it runs through 2019, but he has decent numbers hitting LHP. You can platoon him and Drew for the year.

This trade wouldn't cost anything of value.

I like Ross, but I worry about his delivery. And the fact that he's notorious for throwing his slider a ton. Anyone throwing a slider over 30% of the time raises eyebrows for me. According to my numbers, he's throwing it 46% of the time this season. That's a ton and with the slider putting a good amount of stress on the arm, it's definitely worrisome. Add in the concerning delivery, and you have a red flagged player IMO.

 

[Cassano]

I like Ross, but I worry about his delivery. And the fact that he's notorious for throwing his slider a ton. Anyone throwing a slider over 30% of the time raises eyebrows for me. According to my numbers, he's throwing it 46% of the time this season. That's a ton and with the slider putting a good amount of stress on the arm, it's definitely worrisome. Add in the concerning delivery, and you have a red flagged player IMO.

Fair enough, it's well known though that his slider is his go-to-pitch. It makes a lot of batters look silly out there.

He is a pretty weird pitcher. Weird delivery for his frame. You'd expect someone his size to use his fastball to overpower guys, but he doesn't even use it that much. Then factor in his sinker and that makes him an effective groundball pitcher. It make sense though why he doesn't use his fastball a lot because it's very hittable for MLB standard hitters. It'd be a gamble of course, but I'm intrigued by what he can bring.

 

[Cassano]

This would've been the talk of the season.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I'd rather go big or go home. If its true that the Phillies asked for either of Severino or Judge, but not both, I'd give up Severino in a cocaine heartbeat. Prefer to keep Judge
Guys like Ross dont really interest me.

 

[JimmyG89]

https://mglbaseball.wordpress.com/2...nce-tell-us-beyond-his-up-to-date-projection/

None of that small sample stuff matters.

It sure does. Could be luck involved. Best way to track this is through BABIP and % of hard hit balls. Shifts can also alter this.

I'd keep playing these two against right handed pitching though, until Kirk begins to not produce. He's been hitting the ball hard. Tejada has been a good AB for a while. Makes the pitcher work.

 

[BlueshirtBlitz]

Kirk isn't a starter on a good team, but he's a very good 4th OFer and bench piece and has played admirably enough for a couple of weeks. I think Lagares should get his surgery-- his defense has been good (but not entirely Lagares-esque) but his offense has torpedoed, and you have to hope his arm (or whatever) is bothering him and hurting his ABs. If surgery isn't gonna help, he should be getting platooned to get more rest.

 

[Cassano]

I'd rather go big or go home. If its true that the Phillies asked for either of Severino or Judge, but not both, I'd give up Severino in a cocaine heartbeat. Prefer to keep Judge
Guys like Ross dont really interest me.

I'd easily give up Severino if he's the main piece in a trade for an ace. Keith Law and other experts don't seem to think highly of him as a potential starter. He could be an elite reliever more likely, but you would still move those types of players for top pitchers.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I'd easily give up Severino if he's the main piece in a trade for an ace. Keith Law and other experts don't seem to think highly of him as a potential starter. He could be an elite reliever more likely, but you would still move those types of players for top pitchers.

Exactly. If you have the chance to go Tanaka-Hamels-Pineda-Eovaldi in the playoffs you do it IMO.

 

[RGY]

Hamels has been terrible against the AL

 

[JimmyG89]

Kirk isn't a starter on a good team, but he's a very good 4th OFer and bench piece and has played admirably enough for a couple of weeks. I think Lagares should get his surgery-- his defense has been good (but not entirely Lagares-esque) but his offense has torpedoed, and you have to hope his arm (or whatever) is bothering him and hurting his ABs. If surgery isn't gonna help, he should be getting platooned to get more rest.

His .800 OPS the past month means he should be getting more ABs, especially over the alternative. Play Lagares against lefties. Lagares' arm has him playing outfield differently. He's even more shallow cause he can't throw like he did. He should get it done at this point. Be ready for 2016. Parra is nice, but actually finding a right handed CF would be ideal. Gomez might be too much though.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Hamels has been terrible against the AL

His numbers aren't good, but its 190 innings over 10 seasons. Its not a particularly large sample. I'd still make the trade though.

 

[NYRFAN218]

Kirk isn't a starter on a good team, but he's a very good 4th OFer and bench piece and has played admirably enough for a couple of weeks. I think Lagares should get his surgery-- his defense has been good (but not entirely Lagares-esque) but his offense has torpedoed, and you have to hope his arm (or whatever) is bothering him and hurting his ABs. If surgery isn't gonna help, he should be getting platooned to get more rest.

Yeah I'm at the point where he should just go get the surgery too especially if you could get a guy like Gomez. Kirk to me is similar defensively with the way Lagares is playing. Lagares covers a bit more ground but he's useless throwing the ball right now and that was one of his biggest strengths. Between that and him being absolutely awful at the plate, he's hurting the team more than he's helping it.

 

[Filip Chytil]

Fair enough, it's well known though that his slider is his go-to-pitch. It makes a lot of batters look silly out there.

He is a pretty weird pitcher. Weird delivery for his frame. You'd expect someone his size to use his fastball to overpower guys, but he doesn't even use it that much. Then factor in his sinker and that makes him an effective groundball pitcher. It make sense though why he doesn't use his fastball a lot because it's very hittable for MLB standard hitters. It'd be a gamble of course, but I'm intrigued by what he can bring.

True. I just see a ton of downside to a Ross+Gyorko deal. Worst case scenario, you're looking at Ross going under the knife and then you're stuck with the corpse of Jedd Gyorko.

If it all works out, we're looking at a guy who could K over a batter an inning while posting a good ERA. I just have my reservations about his long term health. Granted, predicting injuries is always a crap shoot, and it all depends on the price of the deal in the end. If the price is good enough, I would probably take a shot at it. But I would be hesitant with Ross, so I would tread carefully with him.

 

[SA16]

It sure does. Could be luck involved. Best way to track this is through BABIP and % of hard hit balls. Shifts can also alter this.

I'd keep playing these two against right handed pitching though, until Kirk begins to not produce. He's been hitting the ball hard. Tejada has been a good AB for a while. Makes the pitcher work.

The data says it doesn't.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

What's our infield going to look like for next season?

Murphy, Johnson and Uribe are all free-agents. I'd rather release Duda than give him 5M+ in arbitration.

Cuddyer at 1B, Flores at 2B, Tejada at SS, Wright at 3B?

 

[JimmyG89]

The data says it doesn't.

So cause 1 stats says it's not luck, while others say it is luck, that one Stat supercedes it? If a player is hitting .330 over his last 12 games, but was hitting .210 over the first 80 games, which one is luck and which one is the actual player?

It's why I like to look at BABIP and hard hit % to determine if a player is making solid contact and if that player is being rewarded for that contact. Who's the better player, the guy hitting line drives hitting .250 or the guy who is hitting slow rollers and hitting .275?

With that said, playing Kirk for now, until he regressed back to his norm of a .700 OPS us ideal.

 

[SA16]

I don't really know what you mean by "1 stat" or "luck." I wasn't referring to any sort of stats or luck. The data shows that the players long term projection will give you a better idea of what the player will do in the future as opposed to a players performance over the past X games and X can be a very large number. The projections, of course, do get updated and take into account the aforementioned X games.

 

[JimmyG89]

What's our infield going to look like for next season?

Murphy, Johnson and Uribe are all free-agents. I'd rather release Duda than give him 5M+ in arbitration.

Cuddyer at 1B, Flores at 2B, Tejada at SS, Wright at 3B?

Duda is clearly getting pitched around and it's gotten to him. He has no help behind him. Maybe that will change now. Still high on Duda. He can regain his form. They need to make sure they have a good replacement for Wright if he gets hurt again. Searching for an upgrade to Ruben would be ideal as well. Don't forget Herrera at 2nd. If we trade for a guy like Tulo in the off season, one of Herrera and Flores will most likely be involved.

 

[JimmyG89]

I don't really know what you mean by "1 stat" or "luck." I wasn't referring to any sort of stats or luck. The data shows that the players long term projection will give you a better idea of what the player will do in the future as opposed to a players performance over the past X games and X can be a very large number. The projections, of course, do get updated and take into account the aforementioned X games.

All it does it take current production and says a player will do "this" the rest of the season. It's taking a stat and saying this guy will do this, regardless of the factors why the players is currently doing this. Not a big fan of it. You can draw better conclusions combining other advanced stats IMO. Best players have a high hard hit % and an average BABIP.

Luck is part of the game. It's not going away. Need to quantify luck similar to PDO. I don't think this stat in the article does. Just my opinion.

 

[SA16]

But the article legitimately has absolutely nothing to do with luck. It's just talking about hot streaks and "breakouts" and if they are actually meaningful or if it's more likely the player will product like the projection says he will and they show each time they produce almost right on to the projection. The word luck isn't even mentioned in the article one time regarding player performance. I don't really understand what you are arguing against.

Example case:

I took all players in 2007-2013 whose projection was at least 40 points less than their actual wOBA after one month into the season. They had to have had at least 50 PA. There were 116 such players, or around 20% of all qualified players. Their collective projected wOBA was .341 and they were hitting .412 after one month with an average of 111 PA per player. For the remainder of the season, in a total of 12,922 PA, or 494 PA per player, they hit .346, or 5 points better than their projection, but 66 points worse than their season-to-date performance.

 

[JimmyG89]

But the article legitimately has absolutely nothing to do with luck. It's just talking about hot streaks and "breakouts" and if they are actually meaningful or if it's more likely the player will product like the projection says he will and they show each time they produce almost right on to the projection. The word luck isn't even mentioned in the article one time regarding player performance. I don't really understand what you are arguing against.

That's what makes it a bad stat IMHO. How do you have a stat that says a player tendency is this or that without factoring in luck? Luck is 100% involved. You said SSS doesn't matter. It does matter. Hard hit % matters. These aren't being taken into account. This stat is useful to see actually who is getting lucky and who isn't combining it with those.

I can look at obp, avg, slg, and ops while looking at the other more advanced measures I've mentioned and determine if someone will regress or not. It takes the luck factor into it as well. I don't need that one stat combining those listed above to tell me that.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Duda is clearly getting pitched around and it's gotten to him. He has no help behind him. Maybe that will change now. Still high on Duda. He can regain his form. They need to make sure they have a good replacement for Wright if he gets hurt again. Searching for an upgrade to Ruben would be ideal as well. Don't forget Herrera at 2nd. If we trade for a guy like Tulo in the off season, one of Herrera and Flores will most likely be involved.

The thing with Duda that most makes me cautious is his age. He'll be 30 years old next season, and he's had one good MLB season.

I think I'd think of him differently if he was five years younger.

 

[NYRSchrute217]

Looks like the Mets are about to get Clippard. Mejia, Clippard, Parnell and Familia is dangerous in the back of the bullpen, but I would think Mejia for Clippard makes sense.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Embrace your fraud! It's his 40th birthday today.

 

[NYRFAN218]