"MLB could expand to 32 teams in 'five to six years"

[robert terwilliger]

well if they're going to get one no matter what i sure hope the team stays competitive.

 

[GordonGecko]

Montreal has a very long baseball history..

Indeed, a long minor league history with the Montreal Royals and Jackie Robinson at the tiny Jarry Park Stadium. That small core base just doesn't cut it in the Majors anymore. The initial boost would be big, but within 3 years attendance would be back to like Tampa

 

[Bjorn Le]

Indeed, a long minor league history with the Montreal Royals and Jackie Robinson at the tiny Jarry Park Stadium. That small core base just doesn't cut it in the Majors anymore. The initial boost would be big, but within 3 years attendance would be back to like Tampa

Conjecture, and something MLB clearly disagrees with.

 

[YNWA14]

I really don't see an MLB team working in Montreal.

 

[BigMac1212]

Wasn't there a team called the Montreal Wanderers?

If Montreal gets one expansion team, where would the 2nd franchise go?

 

[blueandgoldguy]

What makes you think they would? At Olympic Stadium before the really bad years of 5K, the Expos couldn't draw more than 10-12K which is much worse than Tampa. Of course the stadium sucked, so the question is how much of a draw will the new place be. I think after the initial year that 20K for baseball over 81 games would be extremely optimistic in Montreal. So no, I don't think that Montreal would be much better than Tampa for the league.


Why would they trade bad for mediocre? The league is going to want good or great

i thought it was proven years ago that montreal won't support a baseball team.

I have already proven in an earlier post that comparatively speaking, Montreal supported their baseball team better than teams like the A's and the Rays. Montreal had more seasons in the top-half or top-10 in MLB attendance than the Rays and they have fewer seasons at or near the bottom of the league in attendance prior to achieving lame-duck status in the late-90s....all this while playing in an inferior stadium to Tampa (yeah, hard to believe but true) and having fewer "good" or playoff seasons than Tampa...actually Montreal had one playoff season.

It says something about Tampa baseball market that they could only average 23,000/game the year after a trip to the World Series. That would be respectable if it occurred in the 70s or 80s but won't fly in the present when all pro teams average higher attendance numbers due to the penetration of pro sports on our culture.

 

[GordonGecko]

I have already proven in an earlier post that comparatively speaking, Montreal supported their baseball team better than teams like the A's and the Rays

Is that supposed to be something to be proud of?

 

[Bjorn Le]

Is that supposed to be something to be proud of?

It destroys the argument that Montreal shouldn't get a team and it won't work. If you don't think those are locations worthy of having an MLB team, then Montreal is the only replacement (no, there is no location better, and MLB will not contract). If you think they are, then Montreal is an MLB market.

 

[GKJ]

Remember 10 years ago when we were retracting?

 

[YNWA14]

It destroys the argument that Montreal shouldn't get a team and it won't work. If you don't think those are locations worthy of having an MLB team, then Montreal is the only replacement (no, there is no location better, and MLB will not contract). If you think they are, then Montreal is an MLB market.

How does it destroy the argument though? The reason why teams like Oakland and Tampa have been talked about as moving is because they don't do so well. Why would that make Montreal the only replacement?

I'm sure there are plenty of locations that are better and that would be more economical not only for the owners but also for the players.

 

[Bjorn Le]

How does it destroy the argument though? The reason why teams like Oakland and Tampa have been talked about as moving is because they don't do so well. Why would that make Montreal the only replacement?

I'm sure there are plenty of locations that are better and that would be more economical not only for the owners but also for the players.

I just explained why. What other city could possibly take an MLB team anytime soon? Montreal is the only option. They're the only location actively discussed in relocation talks, and even in expansion talks, Montreal is by far the most discussed. Name a better location. You can't. It's frivolous to say you're sure there's plenty of locations better when you won't name any. Name five cities and you'll get told why all of those cities are worse than Montreal.

The fact is, MLB is expanding, or Oakland/Tampa Bay will move. One of those two will happen. Montreal is the top option for both those options, according to just about every expert and league source. Montreal is getting a team. People need to stop looking at the post-Loria years in an outdated stadium miles from civilization that should never have been a baseball venue in the first place and assuming it'll be the same. Montreal is a big market, has the unique value of getting two TV contracts, and unlike literally every other city you can think of, both has a temporary venue and a prospective ownership group (just because they haven't gone public doesn't mean they don't exist).

Remember 10 years ago when we were retracting?

It was longer than 10 years ago, and any major sports league that dares contract today will not just lose prestige, they will lose massive amounts of money. No players union will ever allow contraction to happen.

 

[YNWA14]

There's no such thing as an 'only' option. Stadiums don't take so long to build that if they are serious about going forward with expansion/relocation that it couldn't be done somewhere else. There are plenty of markets out there not being tapped into currently.

I'd rather see them go to Vancouver but I don't see it as a likely option.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

Is that supposed to be something to be proud of?

Sure, it is. Montreal would probably be a top-15 revenue team with the dollar at or near par. At the dollar's current level they would probably be in the 20-22 range and that might be a pessimistic outlook.

Here are some advantages of moving from Tampa to Montreal:

1. Montreal has a higher median household income.

Tampa Bay has seen its median household income decrease from 2010 and it has the worst ranking of any of America's 25 biggest metros currently below $50,000

http://www.tampabay.com/news/busine...ian-household-income-signals-sluggish/2198395

Meanwhile Montreal boasts a median household income over $73,000.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/famil107a-eng.htm

Safe to say households that earn more have more disposable income for things like baseball games even once you factor in tax advantages in Florida.

2. Tampa Bay Sports Market is over-extended whereas the Montreal sports market is under-served.

http://shadowofthestadium.blogspot.ca/2015/05/new-study-says-tampa-bays-sports-market.html

With a population of approx. 3 million it is quite clear the Tampa's market has one more team than it can handle. The Bucs frequently fail to sell out their home games and have struggled for some time, The Lightening have some of the lowest revenue streams in the league despite icing a current Stanley Cup contender for the past few years, winning the Stanley Cup a decade ago, and having a plethora of superstars over the past 15 years with the likes of Richards, St. Louis, Lecavalier, Stamkos and Hedman; the Rays are the lowest or second-lowest revenue-generating team in MLB despite qualifying for the playoffs in 4 of 6 seasons.

It's pretty clear this market is suffering from an overabundance of teams. There are only so many disposable bucks and corporate dollars to allocate and it's clear that Tampa can't keep up. Eliminating one of these teams would allow the other teams to grab a greater share of local/regional sports dollars.

Montreal has over 1 million more people than Tampa and it only supports one of the big-4 pro leagues currently. It is an under-served market. Not only that, but this hypothetical Montreal team would have access to the entirety of Quebec's nearly 9 million people with no other big- leagues anywhere in the province. They would also have access to the 2+ million people in the Maritimes and Newfoundland who most likely would pick the Expos as their preferred team to not only experience in a live setting but on TV as well. In Montreal, in Quebec and in eastern Canada there will be substantially higher levels of corporate dollars and disposable income available to an MLB team.

3. Montreal has the superior TV market

Tampa Bay currently has a local TV deal that pays a paltry $20 million per season and is limited to a market of 3 million. They have to split the regional market with the Miami Marlins. Not only that, but there is a significant number of transplants in Florida who have no interest in the Rays. They prefer teams from their cities of origin. This will do nothing but dampen their ratings for the forseeable future.

No such problems in Montreal. Again, it is a larger city and will have all of Quebec and eastern Canada to itself - a market of 10 million or more. Then factor in the local TSN affiliate. As we all know, TSN recently lost rights to NHL hockey a couple years ago to Rogers Sportsnet. Couple that with losing the rights to Blue Jays games they once had several years ago and it's clear that TSN is starving for content.

While the CFL is a successful ratings driver for the network there are only 4 games a week. Having 162 Expos games would be an attractive option for TSN and they would pay dearly for this content. My guess would be a minimum bid of $100 million per season and as high as $120 million per year. I'll let the folks here figure out which market offers the greater revenues and upside.

4. Montreal is, by far, the sexier market

Montreal is the most European of North American cities. It is full of French-speaking and bilingual individuals, world class restaurants, beautiful architecture, fantastic parks and rich culture. It is one of the more desirable tourist destinations as far as North American cities go. It gives MLB a greater cache.

Incontrast, Tampa is like the forgotten city in Florida. It is not the tourist mecca that Orlando is nor can it compare to the glitz and glamour of Miami. It pales from a cultural and historical standpoint to the likes of Montreal. It's not really a fair competition.

So there you have it - Montreal and it's surrounding region are larger, wealthier and sexier than Tampa. There is also less competition for the sports dollar. The potential both in the present and the future is so much greater for Rays north of the border. If Tampa fails to build a new stadium in the next 5-10 years, there will be no greater city to host an MLB team than the one that resides in la belle province.

 

[GordonGecko]

^ Montreal is very different culturally and also economically. With all the stats you provided, you would think that real estate would be extremely high priced, yet properties go for a small fraction of what they do in Toronto, Vancouver, or even the much smaller Ottawa. People don't spend like other cities, you saw it with the Expos and nothing much has changed

 

[Bjorn Le]

^ Montreal is very different culturally and also economically. With all the stats you provided, you would think that real estate would be extremely high priced, yet properties go for a small fraction of what they do in Toronto, Vancouver, or even the much smaller Ottawa. People don't spend like other cities, you saw it with the Expos and nothing much has changed

Let's not twist words. Montreal may be culturally different, but baseball is still popular. Ballpark factors were responsible for attendance issues before MLB gave up on the team, and MLB not caring about them is why they suffered after.

A lot more goes into housing prices then just household income. All the cities above them are located boomtowns, inflated markets (Vancouver and Victoria), or important centres. Toronto is Canada's financial and business capital, while Ottawa is the capital with over a hundred thousand very well paid civil servants able to drive prices up.

 

[YNWA14]

You think that the "bilingualism" and culture in Montreal is a plus for baseball? It's definitely not the "sexy" pick in terms of cities, all other things aside (infrastructure, TV) and the current exchange rate/taxes makes it even less attractive to players and owners.

 

[Bjorn Le]

You think that the "bilingualism" and culture in Montreal is a plus for baseball? It's definitely not the "sexy" pick in terms of cities, all other things aside (infrastructure, TV) and the current exchange rate/taxes makes it even less attractive to players and owners.

Name one city more attractive. Charlotte? No. San Antonio? No. Las Vegas? No. Hampton Roads? Hell no.

 

[Mightygoose]

In a media driven sport like MLB is, the bilingualism factor is a big plus. That's now 2 local rights to sell instead of one. If Bell is involved, that's even more content they can cross promote all of their brands.

The biggest plus that's it's a major international market that really doesn't infringe on someone else's RSN. The Jays have already given their blessing so Rogers is a non-issue.

Mexico City is the only other market that can offer more and with the revenue sharing model that exists today, exchange rates won't matter much.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

^ Montreal is very different culturally and also economically. With all the stats you provided, you would think that real estate would be extremely high priced, yet properties go for a small fraction of what they do in Toronto, Vancouver, or even the much smaller Ottawa. People don't spend like other cities, you saw it with the Expos and nothing much has changed

Places like Vancouver and Toronto are not something that Montreal should aspire to as those housing markets are hyper-inflated due to the influx of foreign money or to be more precise, money from China. The median income in Vancouver is lower than that in Winnipeg (approx. $50,000) so the housing prices there are not at all indicative of the strength of the local economy and the buying power of your typical employed person.

But thanks for strengthening my argument. With lower housing prices in Montreal, it ultimately means that the average homeowner is not house poor like those folks in other cities and thus has more disposable income for entertainment like baseball games. Thanks for that!

As for spending, my past posts have illustrated that Montrealers were willing to spend money on baseball games as they were frequently in the top-half of the league in attendance. This despite few successful seasons and only one playoff appearance in their entire history. Only when the Bronfmans rid themselves of the team did we see a steady decline in attendance (though comparatively better than places like Oakland and Tampa) as new ownership showed an unwillingness to soon-to-be free agents. The final nail in the coffin was '98 and onwards when the franchise was essentially a lame duck and attendance cratered.

No doubt a team in Montreal, the largest market without an MLB team by the way, would exceed the revenues of several teams if they receive a relocated or expansion franchise.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

Let's not twist words. Montreal may be culturally different, but baseball is still popular. Ballpark factors were responsible for attendance issues before MLB gave up on the team, and MLB not caring about them is why they suffered after.

A lot more goes into housing prices then just household income. All the cities above them are located boomtowns, inflated markets (Vancouver and Victoria), or important centres. Toronto is Canada's financial and business capital, while Ottawa is the capital with over a hundred thousand very well paid civil servants able to drive prices up.

To further the point, Ottawa is generally regarded as the lowest revenue NHL team in Canada with the lowest average ticket price, thousands of empty seats at some games and dozen of empty suites. Meanwhile, Montreal with its lower housing prices has the highest or second highest revenues in the NHL. Indeed, using housing prices as an argument against an MLB team in Montreal in a shaky platform from which to stand.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

You think that the "bilingualism" and culture in Montreal is a plus for baseball? It's definitely not the "sexy" pick in terms of cities, all other things aside (infrastructure, TV) and the current exchange rate/taxes makes it even less attractive to players and owners.

It is the most wordly and cosmopolitan city that does not have a major league baseball team. The leading institute ranking world cities on a variety of factors including economic, cultural and political, ranks Montreal as a beta + city with the likes of Houston and Dallas. No other American city without an MLB team ranks close. The closest is Charlotte, a full 3 rankings below as a Gamma+ city.

http://www.spottedbylocals.com/blog/alpha-beta-and-gamma-cities/

No other city in America come close. In fact, the next highest ranking non-MLB city is not even in the US. It's in Vancouver. Who knows? Maybe Canada will see two new MLB teams in the next 2 decades.

 

[GordonGecko]

Meanwhile, Montreal with its lower housing prices has the highest or second highest revenues in the NHL

Yeah because that has nothing to do with the Canadiens being the second most winningest franchise in global professional sports behind the Yankees for over a 100 years, in the birthplace of hockey where it's pretty much a birthright religion for 99 out of 100 people

 

[blueandgoldguy]

Yeah because that has nothing to do with the Canadiens being the second most winningest franchise in global professional sports behind the Yankees for over a 100 years, in the birthplace of hockey where it's pretty much a birthright religion for 99 out of 100 people

You have yet to provide a substantive argument in favour of another city over Montreal.

 

[robert terwilliger]

man, all of this about montreal, maybe they should have 2 teams! or 3! people have a ton of money and love sports!

 

[blueandgoldguy]

Sure, why not! Go hard or go home!