Mitch Marner or Johnny Gaudreau

[Dion TheFluff]

Gaudreau quite easily. Marner couldn't carry a team like Johnny is doing. Also anyone discrediting Johnny's defensive game just doesnt pay attention... seems like Easterners

Gaudreau is 9th in give aways this year, was 5th last year and 8th the year before that. The guy is a pretty big liability defensively especially when compared to a player such as Marner

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Or maybe Monahan and Lindholm are pretty decent players? Maybe a possibility?

As for the poll.... Leaf fans voted Marner > Gaudreau for the past 3 years... Surprise Surprise... the gap apparently is still big between them. At least we moved on from Nylander > Gaudreau.

Monahan and Lindholm are more than decent players. They are both very good (though I'd say Lindholm is the better overall player, Monahan might be a slightly better scorer). When Monahan is healthy he's one of the very best low slot finishers in the game, and Lindholm is one of the most complete players out there, with a deadly release.

But neither guy is John Tavares, yet they are producing like it (even though Tavares is playing with Marner). There's a reason for this.

My point was that Lindholm went from a ~15 goal ~40 point player in Carolina to a guy with 17 goals and 38 points in only 36 games with Gaudreau. I suspect Monahan would have struggled in a similar fashion if he played in a similar role in Carolina, maybe potting 20-25g 45-50p?

Johnny Gaudreau has consistently shown the ability to add 20-40 points to his linemate's 82 game pace. He did it for Hudler, he did it for Ferland, and he's doing it for Lindholm.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Gaudreau is 9th in give aways this year, was 5th last year and 8th the year before that. The guy is a pretty big liability defensively especially when compared to a player such as Marner

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Giveaways aren't an indication of anything except how often you are passing / carrying the puck. Marner has other guys to help carry the load here, Gaudreau is forced to do this a lot more. Like Marner, he's second among his team's forwards in +/- so he must be doing something right.

Gaudreau and Marner are actually very similar in their defensive play. Both have elite awareness and are great opportunists, using their unbelievable anticipation to make the calculated risk on when to jump for a break. They are also both excellent at breaking the puck out off the half wall (the most important pass in hockey), and have the patience and composure to carry the puck out of danger when needed. And both are very strong on their sticks and excellent at stealing pucks on the back check.

Gaudreau is very good positionally as well:

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Still Gaudreau. Love both players, but could you imagine the point totals he'd be putting up with guys like Tavares and Matthews to pass to?

Impact on linemate production is also a noteworthy factor. Tavares is producing like he always has, meanwhile playing with Gaudreau has effectively doubled Lindolm's production.

I don't think you'd believe me if I told you at the start of the season that Lindholm and Tavares would have the same number of points at Christmas. Think about that.

Actually Tavares' goal scoring is up 42% from his previous career high rate.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Just to further illustrate my point about Gaudreau's impact on linemate's.

Since 2014-15 at 5v5

Monahan with Gaudreau:
157 points in ~4,385 mins
2.15 p/60

Monahan without Gaudreau:
40 points in ~1,645 mins
1.46p/60

Even if you generously assume Monahan's production remains unchanged at 4v4, 3v3, and on the PP, this difference in 5v5 production would led to a ~14 point reduction in his 82 game scoring pace, taking him down to a ~50 point player instead of a ~64 point player over the last few years. If your familiar with my posts on the subject, you'll know this is exactly what I've been saying for years.

That's far from a trivial sample size. At 5v5 Monahan produces like a first line player with Gaudreau, and a third line player without him.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Marner. And that’s not to discredit Gaudreau, who has been impressive for years now. But since the second half of last season, Marner has been an absolute beast, and is continuing to put it all together. His defence is very underrated, and he’s only 21.

Gaudreau does have a real nice contract though

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Actually Tavares' goal scoring is up 42% from his previous career high rate.

Scoring more goals and getting less assists. If he were playing for the Islanders still I don't think anyone would be surprised by his current production - he was 16th in league scoring last year and currently sits at 23rd right now.

 

[tomi2]

Really close this one. Pick your poison situation really. Both great. Went with Marner cause I think he has more potential.

 

[Half Clapper]

John.

 

[Mats13]

Linemates never mattered when we had Phil Kessel and the rest of the team sucked.

Now it's all anyone can talk about. Gotta love HF

 

[Arizonan God]

Marner didnt start producing at Gaudreaus rate until he got Tavares as his centre. Marner has exceeded my expectations but i still take Gaudreau easily as he is the type of player who can drive a whole team. Idk if Marner is that type of player. Including contracts it sways it even more.

Marner is absolutely a line driver. Tavares is on pace to smash his career high in goals, and it’s not a coincidence.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

JG. He’s a proven top player for several years now.
The only reason Marner will likely win the poll is that there’s way more Leaf fans on here than Flames fans. Take out the home team bias and I think it’s still close but edge to JG.

 

[Randy Randerson]

went Marner, I don't see the "$10+ minimum" contract with Kucherov just signing at $9.5M for 8 years where 7 of those are UFA years, so I don't see the cost gap that's being presented here

Marner is certainly a line driver, there's a lot of focus in here on Tavares as a linemate being a huge boost to Marner but I haven't seen the name Hyman mentioned at all who's easily the worst forward that either plays with regularly by a wide margin, the average quality of their linemates is quite close with an edge to Gaudreau:
Gaudreau - toi%QoT 31.83, CF%QoT 53.95, xGF%QoT 53.19
Marner - - toi%QoT 31.43, CF%QoT 49.4, xGF%QoT 48.36

Marner contributes a lot on both sides of the puck and has 4 more years of prime so I would look to build around that

JG. He’s a proven top player for several years now.
The only reason Marner will likely win the poll is that there’s way more Leaf fans on here than Flames fans. Take out the home team bias and I think it’s still close but edge to JG.

so is this to say that you don't believe what Marner is doing is repeatable?

 

[BayStreetBully]

Marner. He’s bigger, younger, and in his 3rd year is playing better than Gaudreau ever has. Marner at age 21 has room to grow, while Gaudreau is already a 6 year veteran at age 25, and is what he is.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Linemates never mattered when we had Phil Kessel and the rest of the team sucked.

Now it's all anyone can talk about. Gotta love HF

Linemates have always mattered, anyone saying otherwise has an agenda.

Kessel was a top 5 winger when he was with the leafs.

 

[koyvoo]

They’re both so ridiculously talented and influential for their teams. I lean toward Marner for a vote but it’s on a knife edge really.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Marner. He’s bigger, younger, and in his 3rd year is playing better than Gaudreau ever has. Marner at age 21 has room to grow, while Gaudreau is already a 6 year veteran at age 25, and is what he is.

This is Gaudreau's 5th year and he's on pace to smash his career high in points. Hard to say that we've seen his peak. I couldn't imagine what his numbers would look like with a Tavares caliber player. And what Tavares' numbers would look like....

If you missed my earlier post, Gaudreau has proven to have a massive impact on his linemate's productivity. Can't say nearly the same for Marner.

 

[member 147413]

I’ll stick with Marner, kids a big game player, comparable at 4 years younger.

Only thing that would sway me otherwise is contracts, but I think Mitch settles at 8.5 or 9

 

[member 147413]

This is Gaudreau's 5th year and he's on pace to smash his career high in points. Hard to say that we've seen his peak. I couldn't imagine what his numbers would look like with a Tavares caliber player. And what Tavares' numbers would look like....

If you missed my earlier post, Gaudreau has proven to have a massive impact on his linemate's productivity. Can't say nearly the same for Marner.

He carried JVR and Bozak as a rookie and sophomore.

 

[Randy Randerson]

This is Gaudreau's 5th year and he's on pace to smash his career high in points. Hard to say that we've seen his peak. I couldn't imagine what his numbers would look like with a Tavares caliber player. And what Tavares' numbers would look like....

If you missed my earlier post, Gaudreau has proven to have a massive impact on his linemate's productivity. Can't say nearly the same for Marner.

Gaudreau has better linemates than Marner, fwiw

 

[Mats13]

Linemates have always mattered, anyone saying otherwise has an agenda.

Kessel was a top 5 winger when he was with the leafs.

He lost polls to players like Loui Erickson...

 

[BayStreetBully]

I’ll stick with Marner, kids a big game player, comparable at 4 years younger.

Only thing that would sway me otherwise is contracts, but I think Mitch settles at 8.5 or 9

Marner will make more than Gaudreau because everyone knows Marner is a better player than Gaudreau. There’s nothing we can do about that.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He carried JVR and Bozak as a rookie and sophomore.

JVR and Bozak were productive players before Marner.

I'll post this again:
Since 2014-15 at 5v5

Monahan with Gaudreau:
157 points in ~4,385 mins
2.15 p/60

Monahan without Gaudreau:
40 points in ~1,645 mins
1.46p/60

 

[34]

Marner being 4 years younger is a big factor here. At the rate Marner is going he may be the 2nd best player in the NHL behind McDavid before he is 25!

Both are great players, but Marner is the man here.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Marner will make more than Gaudreau because everyone knows Marner is a better player than Gaudreau. There’s nothing we can do about that.

Marner will make more than Gaudreau because the cap has gone up.
If you’re going to just homer vote in every poll at least have an informed opinion.