Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread Part 7 (Mod warning OP)

[leaffaninvancouver]

We would see a decline in his precious 5vs5 point per 60 when his ES minute becomes more difficult (as a result of more PK goals against).

Do you know what 5vs5 means? More PK goals doesn't impact that at all. An additional 4 minutes of PK means Matthews maybe loses a little over a minute a game. That's pretty negligible, and after a PK is when you see lines like
Matthews, Marner, Nylander because the PKer's are tired.

More penalties and power plays might not be as good for the team but they would be a fantastic for Matthews production.

 

[Dekes For Days]

And by just looking 5v5 part of the game is also really simplistic. Leafs fans should know that since Bruins just eliminated you in the playoffs because of really good PP.

Bruins eliminated the Leafs due primarily to injuries, luck, and the single best PP% of any team playing more than 12 games in more than 40 years (that was even better against us).

PP stats were also posted, and he also excels at that.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

And by just looking 5v5 part of the game is also really simplistic. Leafs fans should know that since Bruins just eliminated you in the playoffs because of really good PP.

Looking at advanced stats is the opposite of simplistic, but hey at least you twisted your argument so you could get in a sick burn. Way to go brah.

 

[HogTown06]

True, it is inherently boring, but teams like the Yankees that spend to the moon are more exciting to watch then the Marlins and are far more competitive because of the fact that they can hand out stupid money to anyone without reprocussion. But yes, playing for the Yankees is more prestigious than playing for the Marlins, which helps them actually have good teams

Is that actually a bad thing though (honest question)? I may be biased here being a Leafs fan. But if you can have a soft cap and allow teams with larger fan bases to have an advantage over teams that are not as popular, based on the fact that they generate more money and contribute more to revenue share, it would increase revenue is make a greater number of fans happy?

Could also spell out extinction for teams in the sun belt. Regardless, Bettman would never let it happen because it would hurt viewership in the States even though a few American teams like the Bruins, Rangers and Blackhawks would take advantage of it.

 

[DomBarr]

You should take a look around the league and you'll see how often things like this happen.

Rielly is signed. Barrie will almost definitely be signed, and if not, Muzzin. Dermott will be re-signed as an RFA and should be fairly cheap and ready to step into a 2nd pairing role. Their 2 best prospects are both D and developing amazingly. Everybody was screaming about our downfall this offseason, and how we were losing half of our D, and losing our depth because cap. And now we're entering next season with a much better and more balanced team. Dubas has a plan, and he is executing it perfectly despite a bunch of obstacles.

Even in a worst case scenario where they have to trade somebody, they will still have 3 franchise players, and 2 of the best Cs in the game. And a #1D. And a #1 goalie. Leafs have been a playoff team despite everybody being a rookie. Leafs have been a contender despite not having Tavares. Leafs have been a contender despite essentially not having Nylander. Leafs have been a contender with 38-year old Hainsey as their best RHD.

The forward core will be locked in for 5 years +, and a lot of the secondary scoring is even locked in for a few.

The only way the Leafs fall substantially back is if they lose Rielly or Andersen, and I see the chance of either of those happening as essentially 0%.

My reply was in response to your comment that the Leafs window is at least 5 years even if everything goes wrong...not that they wouldn't have a window of 5 yrs. As much as I dislike the Leafs they have a good young team and if Dubas continues to make decent trades to open required cap space they could have 5+ year window but it is far from guaranteed as more has to go right than wrong
Next year its building the defense (again)
The Following it is Goaltending

and the 5th year is where it can crash especially if Marner is successful in getting a 5 yr term out of the Leafs..

Which by the way is what I think is holding up Marner's extension...I think he is standing firm on a 5 yr term which would be the Leafs worst case scenario having Matthews/Nylander/Marner all expiring the same year

 

[Seanaconda]

Do you know what 5vs5 means? More PK goals doesn't impact that at all. An additional 4 minutes of PK means Matthews maybe loses a little over a minute a game. That's pretty negligible, and after a PK is when you see lines like
Matthews, Marner, Nylander because the PKer's are tired.

More penalties and power plays might not be as good for the team but they would be a fantastic for Matthews production.

Well it might ? Teams tend to tighten up defensively when they get the lead so giving up pk goals could affect 5X5 play I guess

 

[GirardSpinorama]

The casual, lazy, uninformed world values easy things like total points, so that's what the NHL uses. People evaluating the quality of players and repeat-ability of production care about 5v5 points and better stats that provide the most context.

5vs5 points are not any more informative than total points. It completely removes the value-add of a player's performance on a critical part of the game. It removes information and context. You have at the very least use both. If two players have equal total production, maybe then you look at 5vs5 points.

 

[heilongjetsfan]

Because when you talk about the Leafs you not only get the Leafs fans watching you get the fans of others teams also hate watching. Don't want the Leafs to be the center of attention, than stop paying attention to them.

The attention is fine. It makes sense. It's the biggest city in the country. It's one of only 2 Canadian Original Six teams. Many of us who cheer for Canadian teams other than the Leafs and the Habs were raised by people who only had the Leafs and Habs to choose from.

What's annoying is the Leafs fans getting upset about their media circus having anything potentially negative to say.

So many Buds Fans got all verklempt at the idea that the whole league is trying to steal Marner. Meanwhile, Winnipeg has Laine and Connor as potential offersheet targets. Vancouver had Boeser, Tkachuk could sign one, ditto Rantanen or Point.

I'm fine with the Leafs getting more attention. I just wish more Leafs fans could understand why when their own media tries to rile them up with negativity

 

[Seanaconda]

The attention is fine. It makes sense. It's the biggest city in the country. It's one of only 2 Canadian Original Six teams. Many of us who cheer for Canadian teams other than the Leafs and the Habs were raised by people who only had the Leafs and Habs to choose from.

What's annoying is the Leafs fans getting upset about their media circus having anything potentially negative to say.

So many Buds Fans got all verklempt at the idea that the whole league is trying to steal Marner. Meanwhile, Winnipeg has Laine and Connor as potential offersheet targets. Vancouver had Boeser, Tkachuk could sign one, ditto Rantanen or Point.

I'm fine with the Leafs getting more attention. I just wish more Leafs fans could understand why when their own media tries to rile them up with negativity

Not to steal your thunder but boeser wasn't /isn't eligible for offersheets

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Bruins eliminated the Leafs due primarily to injuries, luck, and the single best PP% of any team playing more than 12 games in more than 40 years (that was even better against us).

PP stats were also posted, and he also excels at that.

So salty.

 

[Dekes For Days]

My reply was in response to your comment that the Leafs window is at least 5 years even if everything goes wrong...not that they wouldn't have a window of 5 yrs. As much as I dislike the Leafs they have a good young team and if Dubas continues to make decent trades to open required cap space they could have 5+ year window but it is far from guaranteed as more has to go right than wrong

Fair enough. You're right that there are scenarios where they fall back, so I guess everything can't go wrong. I mainly meant in the sense that a ton of things this year went a lot worse than anyone predicted (some of which were their individual worst case scenarios), and we are still coming out on top going into next year. As hard as future things may be, they are nothing compared to the maneuvering that was required this past year.

I don't think there are many scenarios that involve Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Rielly, and Andersen being on the team that end in them not being at least a middle-of-the-pack playoff team, regardless of what (realistically) happens around them.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

The attention is fine. It makes sense. It's the biggest city in the country. It's one of only 2 Canadian Original Six teams. Many of us who cheer for Canadian teams other than the Leafs and the Habs were raised by people who only had the Leafs and Habs to choose from.

What's annoying is the Leafs fans getting upset about their media circus having anything potentially negative to say.

So many Buds Fans got all verklempt at the idea that the whole league is trying to steal Marner. Meanwhile, Winnipeg has Laine and Connor as potential offersheet targets. Vancouver had Boeser, Tkachuk could sign one, ditto Rantanen or Point.

I'm fine with the Leafs getting more attention. I just wish more Leafs fans could understand why when their own media tries to rile them up with negativity

We know why they do it. They do it because it sells. The people who wish the Leafs got less coverage the most from the media are Leaf fans themselves. I'd happy if Marner wasn't news, he shouldn't be. It's the middle of July and there's been virtually no news apart from yesterday where he said he wants to be Leaf but won't go to camp without a contract.

 

[Legion34]

The attention is fine. It makes sense. It's the biggest city in the country. It's one of only 2 Canadian Original Six teams. Many of us who cheer for Canadian teams other than the Leafs and the Habs were raised by people who only had the Leafs and Habs to choose from.

What's annoying is the Leafs fans getting upset about their media circus having anything potentially negative to say.

So many Buds Fans got all verklempt at the idea that the whole league is trying to steal Marner. Meanwhile, Winnipeg has Laine and Connor as potential offersheet targets. Vancouver had Boeser, Tkachuk could sign one, ditto Rantanen or Point.

I'm fine with the Leafs getting more attention. I just wish more Leafs fans could understand why when their own media tries to rile them up with negativity

Soooo this thread got to part 7 because of media? Who is posting in here? McKenzie?

 

[Dekes For Days]

So salty.

Luck is a huge factor in sports, especially hockey, especially in small sample sizes like that, and especially in close match-ups like that. Has nothing to do with salt.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Do you know what 5vs5 means? More PK goals doesn't impact that at all. An additional 4 minutes of PK means Matthews maybe loses a little over a minute a game. That's pretty negligible, and after a PK is when you see lines like
Matthews, Marner, Nylander because the PKer's are tired.

More penalties and power plays might not be as good for the team but they would be a fantastic for Matthews production.

PK goals impact the GAME and game flow. Not every 5vs5 minute is the same. If you want to add context, then you can't suddenly exclude other info.

Matthews needs less apologists and produce more actual points. Total points capture everything, it captures the value add of a player's offense. Can more context help when comparing two players of equal/similar total production? Absolutely. Thats why if total points are equal, you go to points per game; and so on.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Luck is a huge factor in sports, especially hockey, especially in small sample sizes like that, and especially in close match-ups like that. Has nothing to do with salt.

I think most Bruin fans would say they had less luck than the leafs.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Well it might ? Teams tend to tighten up defensively when they get the lead so giving up pk goals could affect 5X5 play I guess

Do you think Matthews would be better or worst off if the Leafs got an extra two penalties and power plays a game?

 

[Seanaconda]

Do you think Matthews would be better or worst off if the Leafs got an extra two penalties and power plays a game?

All in all his points should be better , especially if babs decided to do normal powerplay splits . His 5X5 might go down but his total points should go up you'd think.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I have no idea why there's so much complaining about PP stats when PP stats were posted. Matthews excels in that too.

This whole argument is based around the idea that all teams in the NHL get absolutely perfect and equal reffing, which is ridiculous.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I think most Bruin fans would say they had less luck than the leafs.

Bruins fans do tend to say some crazy things.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think most Bruin fans would say they had less luck than the leafs.

Shocking stuff!

 

[Legion34]

I think most Bruin fans would say they had less luck than the leafs.

Then they didn’t watch the games

Then again there are bruins fans who complain about officiating in the playoffs

They went from one of the most penalized teams in the league to the least the second they started playing the leafs.

Crazy how that works

 

[Seanaconda]

Then they didn’t watch the games

Then again there are bruins fans who complain about officiating in the playoffs

They went from one of the most penalized teams in the league to the least the second they started playing the leafs.

Crazy how that works

Every single fanbase complains about penalties / lack of penalties no matter how many they get.

You pretty much just have to ignore it especially during the playoffs.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Matthews needs less apologists and produce more actual points. Total points capture everything, it captures the value add of a player's offense. Can more context help when comparing two players of equal/similar total production? Absolutely. Thats why if total points are equal, you go to points per game; and so on.

I mean on the one hand I think this topic should stay about Marner, but I guess then it wouldn't be nearly as entertaining.

 

[MattySnipes]

Bruins eliminated the Leafs due primarily to injuries, luck, and the single best PP% of any team playing more than 12 games in more than 40 years (that was even better against us).

PP stats were also posted, and he also excels at that.

All that occurred, and they only edged us out in game 7.