Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread Part 7 (Mod warning OP)

[Randy Randerson]

Same. Unfortunately I think it'll be $9m per for 3 years.

ya, and I'm fine with that. I would prefer 2 years though, I want to be negotiating with Marner with as much RFA leverage as possible and I like it better with 2 RFA years left than 1

 

[Ziggdiezan]

ya, and I'm fine with that. I would prefer 2 years though, I want to be negotiating with Marner with as much RFA leverage as possible and I like it better with 2 RFA years left than 1

I feel like if the leafs and Marner went to arbitration (after a 3 year deal) it would favor the leafs as centers and goal scoring centers especially won't/can't be used as a comparable

 

[Randy Randerson]

I feel like if the leafs and Marner went to arbitration (after a 3 year deal) it would favor the leafs as centers and goal scoring centers especially won't/can't be used as a comparison

for sure, I just want that next contract to be 6+ years if we're bridging him and the arbitration award maxes at 2. The next one I'm sure will hurt for AAV but you want him to be here

 

[janesy12]

ya, and I'm fine with that. I would prefer 2 years though, I want to be negotiating with Marner with as much RFA leverage as possible and I like it better with 2 RFA years left than 1

Agreed.

 

[Guy Larose]

I'm just trying to wrap my head around the fact that there is 7 threads for this. People are just repeating themselves over and over...

 

[janesy12]

I'm just trying to wrap my head around the fact that there is 7 threads for this. People are just repeating themselves over and over...

It's July and the Jays are beyond terrible. This is all we have.

 

[93gilmour93]

So we now have Marner thread 7. What I want to know is by the time Mitch signs a deal will we have more Marner threads or Friday the 13th movies?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I think you missed my question here - what you're saying effectively means that the league-dictated salary cap limit is different by team because the same commodity has a different cost to each team.

I don't know what you're trying to say in the bolded

Internal salary structure is a real thing.

We often hear when a team pays a certain amount of money to a player, that that is their internal max. Tampa Bay is paying Kucherov $9.5M for 7 UFA years; now Brayden Point can not reasonably ask for more than that on a contract where the first 4 years will be RFA.

Look at Pittsburgh with Crosby and Malkin. Crosby took $8.7M on his first contract. Malkin took the same cap hit on his first contract because his team was never going to pay him more than Crosby’s $8.7M. On his second contract, Malkin got a slight raise to $9.5M, but it was actually a drop in cap hit percentage from 15.34% to 14.77%.

Over in Colorado, Nathan MacKinnon signed for 8.63% of the cap, and Gabriel Landeskog signed for 8.66%; both for 7 years. Neither one was a superstar yet when they signed, but they both had Calder Trophies and probably deserved more than Nylander did; they took less, with more term, and didn’t hold out and miss 1/3 of the season in order to get it. I strongly suspect we will see the impacts of this when Rantanen and Marner, two players who deserve very similar money, both sign their contracts.

 

[Seanaconda]

I feel like if the leafs and Marner went to arbitration (after a 3 year deal) it would favor the leafs as centers and goal scoring centers especially won't/can't be used as a comparable

What wingers hit ufa before then ? Anyways the problem with going to arbitration after 3 years is it's only a 1 year deal and hes a ufa after it

 

[Seanaconda]

for sure, I just want that next contract to be 6+ years if we're bridging him and the arbitration award maxes at 2. The next one I'm sure will hurt for AAV but you want him to be here

It only maxes at 2 if there are at least 2 rfa years after a 3 year deal arbitration could only award 1 year

 

[Ziggdiezan]

for sure, I just want that next contract to be 6+ years if we're bridging him and the arbitration award maxes at 2. The next one I'm sure will hurt for AAV but you want him to be here

Ya it is just another option I was thinking of, the leafs could essentially turn a 3 year contract into a 5 year contract at perhaps a better AAV. If the leafs arent able to offer a number that buys any UFA years it could be a good idea.

Personally if all the rumors and BS is true I also would not want to be negotiating a new contract with Mitch for a long time if possible lol

 

[Ziggdiezan]

It only maxes at 2 if there are at least 2 rfa years after a 3 year deal arbitration could only award 1 year

Ah okay good to know

 

[Randy Randerson]

It only maxes at 2 if there are at least 2 rfa years after a 3 year deal arbitration could only award 1 year

ya, 4 years total is not what I want from Marner and I think the Leafs are making it very clear that they don't either, the rumour is they'll look at 2/3 years or 6+ with the current deal

 

[Randy Randerson]

Internal salary structure is a real thing.

We often hear when a team pays a certain amount of money to a player, that that is their internal max. Tampa Bay is paying Kucherov $9.5M for 7 UFA years; now Brayden Point can not reasonably ask for more than that on a contract where the first 4 years will be RFA.

Look at Pittsburgh with Crosby and Malkin. Crosby took $8.7M on his first contract. Malkin took the same cap hit on his first contract because his team was never going to pay him more than Crosby’s $8.7M. On his second contract, Malkin got a slight raise to $9.5M, but it was actually a drop in cap hit percentage from 15.34% to 14.77%.

Over in Colorado, Nathan MacKinnon signed for 8.63% of the cap, and Gabriel Landeskog signed for 8.66%; both for 7 years. Neither one was a superstar yet when they signed, but they both had Calder Trophies and probably deserved more than Nylander did; they took less, with more term, and didn’t hold out and miss 1/3 of the season in order to get it. I strongly suspect we will see the impacts of this when Rantanen and Marner, two players who deserve very similar money, both sign their contracts.

can you point to an example in here where a player was paid 20ish % more than the market of players at his position/talent/contract status around the league? I do agree that Marner won't make more than Matthews, the effect you're highlighting here is really where one team mate sets a limit for another, but I don't see it as having been used as a reason where one player gets signed way above market norms to match a team mate's deal

 

[Randy Randerson]

Ya it is just another option I was thinking of, the leafs could essentially turn a 3 year contract into a 5 year contract at perhaps a better AAV. If the leafs arent able to offer a number that buys any UFA years it could be a good idea.

Personally if all the rumors and BS is true I also would not want to be negotiating a new contract with Mitch for a long time if possible lol

ya really, if we can get a $10.5M x 6-8 year deal done I would just do it. I think Marner, Rantanen & Point are all sort of standing off waiting for the others to set the bar higher after the Aho signing too

 

[Ziggdiezan]

ya really, if we can get a $10.5M x 6-8 year deal done I would just do it. I think Marner, Rantanen & Point are all sort of standing off waiting for the others to set the bar higher after the Aho signing too

Ya agreed, it would still be a tough pill to swallow considering it would likely be an overpayment but one I could live with.

The best thing for every team would be for Tampa to go first lol but unfortunately I see the leafs going first.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Ya agreed, it would still be a tough pill to swallow considering it would likely be an overpayment but one I could live with.

The best thing for every team would be for Tampa to go first lol but unfortunately I see the leafs going first.

I won't be surprised if we get to the start of training camp with none of these guys signed yet, seems more common now that star RFA's are trying to maneuver for more money. Damn shame that the Leafs didn't decided to rebuild like 3 years earlier so we could have more MacKinnon type RFA contracts

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I won't be surprised if we get to the start of training camp with none of these guys signed yet, seems more common now that star RFA's are trying to maneuver for more money. Damn shame that the Leafs didn't decided to rebuild like 3 years earlier so we could have more MacKinnon type RFA contracts

Yup it is classic leafs to rebuild right at the time when the advantages of RFA is waning.

The thing is with the possible of a lockout next year (I believe?) I feel like these guys will end up signing something (with signing bonuses particularly) so they dont completely miss out on pay for like 2 years in a row.

 

[NinjaKick]

I don't know if Marners side can swallow taking less than Matthews and Tavares after the season he just had... I know people don't like comparing centers to wingers but you have to take into consideration the 2 way game and the situations Babcock had Marner playing... this is going to be a very very interesting contract... unfortunately I don't see this coming to a conclusion anytime soon... it sounds like both sides are still at a distance...
All i know is... Marner needs to be with the team at the start of next season... he's too important of a player

 

[Dahlin 2 Eichel]

By who...? He's a top prospect on any team.

Ye old bob McKenzie and no, no he is not.

 

[Seanaconda]

I won't be surprised if we get to the start of training camp with none of these guys signed yet, seems more common now that star RFA's are trying to maneuver for more money. Damn shame that the Leafs didn't decided to rebuild like 3 years earlier so we could have more MacKinnon type RFA contracts

I honestly think Tampa's just waiting for everyone else to sign their rfas tbh. No point in lowering the rfa market with another Tampa discount

they probably won't go past training camp waiting tho. Who knows with rantanen we don't even get baseless speculation from anyone for him

 

[Dekes For Days]

Ye old bob McKenzie and no, no he is not.

Yes he is. Let's see Bob McKenzie's tweet on it then, because it definitely sounds like you are twisting whatever he may have said to your narrative.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

can you point to an example in here where a player was paid 20ish % more than the market of players at his position/talent/contract status around the league? I do agree that Marner won't make more than Matthews, the effect you're highlighting here is really where one team mate sets a limit for another, but I don't see it as having been used as a reason where one player gets signed way above market norms to match a team mate's deal

I think Nylander got paid a good chunk more than he deserved, given the holdout, and then Matthews got a pretty clear overpayment right after. That might honestly be the best example I can think of.

On their UFA contracts, Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews both definitely got paid a bit too much, taking up 15.22% of the cap at $10.5M and making them the highest paid players in the NHL. Toews in particular took this deal immediately after a 68 point season. Now, he had various hardware (2013 Selke, 2010 Smythe) that determined he would be paid more than his points would suggest, but $10.5M?

I don’t have an example off the top of my head of a player who got paid 20% more than market value because their teammates did. You are correct that it works more in the other direction than this one.

I don’t think that Marner will get more than Matthews, but I think he will get more than his market value. My guess is $10.616 on a 6 year term.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I honestly think Tampa's just waiting for everyone else to sign their rfas tbh. No point in lowering the rfa market with another Tampa discount

they probably won't go past training camp waiting tho. Who knows with rantanen we don't even get baseless speculation from anyone for him

maybe, and if so I think the plan for Dubas should still be to play chicken with Marner even if it goes into training camp, eventually Point will sign so if that's going to be a lesser contract then it makes sense to wait

Rantanen is the big one though to me, he's the best comp for Marner

 

[Dahlin 2 Eichel]

Yes he is. Let's see Bob McKenzie's tweet on it then, because it definitely sounds like you are twisting whatever he may have said to your narrative.

You must piss directly into the wind. Someone must post on twitter for it to be fact!