Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread Part 7 (Mod warning OP)

[Team Cozens]

Just match Matthews at $11.6 x 5.
Done

 

[NinjaKick]

You've mentioned it repeatedly and used it as your default response when people explain to you why he is worth less.


Not negative; realistic and informative. If somebody is trying to artificially inflate Marner's contract in here, and using flimsy arguments and false premises to do it, then somebody disproving those arguments will likely feel like negativity.

yes I've mentioned Marner leading the Leafs in scoring over and over again because I find it damn impressive ... but I've also brought up his 2 way game... the important minutes he plays vs top competition... his playmaking.. etc.. you just seem to ignore that to fit your agenda...
if someone complements Marner... your there to shoot it down... very negative

 

[Confucius]

Yep. It was 7-years and around $12.5m but Marner turned it down because he wants a shorter term.

Dam I missed it, stuck out here in the boonies better known as Honey Harbour. who reported it got a link?

 

[Tripod]

No it didn't. They were under completely different circumstances.

Also, even when he wasn't playing with Tavares, he still played with good players and a bunch of 30+ goal scorers, and got the benefit of much less responsibility while playing #1 PP. That good 30 game sample came not long after a horrible 33 game sample in which he had one goal and bled goals against and really struggled. Marner's hot streak also just so happened to coincide with a time in which the PP was hot and JVR was on absolute fire. You can't just eliminate part of the season or eliminate context.

Again....the 30 game sample size to end the season is treated as such....a small sample size. And in that sample, he was WITHOUT TAVARES. That showed he was capable of playing at a 93 point pace WITHOUT Tavares. Then this season, he showed he could play at a 94 point pace with Tavares.

Guess what, when you re-sign Marner, he is going to play with good players, likely Tavares. They are a perfect combo of a passer and a scorer. Enjoy it. But it doesn't make Marner any less valuable, especially to Toronto.

141 points in his last 126 games...92 point pace. That's not a small sample anymore. He is a star.

 

[Confucius]

Just match Matthews at $11.6 x 5.
Done

Better yet just match Mcdavids deal, on second thought that may not be enough. Lol

 

[Dekes For Days]

Kuch took a discount Tyler Seguin took a discount Mark stone took a discount

Hmmm, I wonder what those 3 could possibly have in common...

 

[Seanaconda]

Hmmm, I wonder what those 3 could possibly have in common...

Tax free states are fun . And stone didnt take much of a discount . Maybe he could have gotten 10 if he went to ufa. I don't think seguin really did either tbh .

Kucherov however did take a discount even without his 127 point season he was only being outscored by McDavid for the duration of his bridge till he signed his extension.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Again....the 30 game sample size to end the season is treated as such....a small sample size. And in that sample, he was WITHOUT TAVARES. That showed he was capable of playing at a 93 point pace WITHOUT Tavares.

Again, no it didn't. It showed that he could have a hot streak when other good players he played with were on fire over a small sample in favourable situations, to even out after a horrible, longer cold streak in that very same season. 30 games is not a big enough sample to determine anything, and then everything about his role and linemates changed between his 2nd and 3rd seasons.

It's a factor in his favour, but it doesn't prove he can do anything.

But it doesn't make Marner any less valuable, especially to Toronto.

No, his contract valuation based on his ELC, what he has proven, and the player he is does.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Again....the 30 game sample size to end the season is treated as such....a small sample size. And in that sample, he was WITHOUT TAVARES. That showed he was capable of playing at a 93 point pace WITHOUT Tavares. Then this season, he showed he could play at a 94 point pace with Tavares.

Guess what, when you re-sign Marner, he is going to play with good players, likely Tavares. They are a perfect combo of a passer and a scorer. Enjoy it. But it doesn't make Marner any less valuable, especially to Toronto.

141 points in his last 126 games...92 point pace. That's not a small sample anymore. He is a star.

I'm of the opinion that Marner is a star who's going to put up 85-100pts with or without a Tavares level center. He worked well with Kadri as well, and Kadri is very stylistically similar to Tavares - very good at putting the puck in the net from within 20 feet without having to touch it for long - and that archetype has a lot of synergy with Marner's game where he carries the puck a lot in the offensive zone and changes angles to get someone a good look from in close.

That said, RFA wingers in that echelon have no precedent to make Eichel/Matthews money. I think Matthews got a little overpaid, but I don't see how Marner can look around the league and make a case that he's worth that other than a plea for intra-team pay equity

 

[Dekes For Days]

yes I've mentioned Marner leading the Leafs in scoring over and over again because I find it damn impressive ...

Except when you put it in actual context, it's not as impressive.

but I've also brought up his 2 way game... the important minutes he plays vs top competition... his playmaking.. etc.. you just seem to ignore that to fit your agenda..

I'm not ignoring anything. None of these make him worth more than Matthews.

His 2 way game is not better than Matthews. Matthews has played versus top competition more in his career, and with less help. His playmaking is great, but that's no more special than Matthews' goal-scoring, and goal-scoring is worth more.

 

[Tripod]

Again, no it didn't. It showed that he could have a hot streak when other good players he played with were on fire over a small sample in favourable situations, to even out after a horrible, longer cold streak in that very same season. 30 games is not a big enough sample to determine anything, and then everything about his role and linemates changed between his 2nd and 3rd seasons.

It's a factor in his favour, but it doesn't prove he can do anything.


No, his contract valuation based on his ELC, what he has proven, and the player he is does.

And what he is, is a 94 point player who just led the Leafs in scoring.

Are you surprised he wants to be paid like the 2 11 million dollar teammates that he just outscored?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Are you surprised he wants to be paid like the 2 11 million dollar teammates that he just outscored?

Yes, when his contract valuation puts him lower due to context that that simplistic statement ignores.

 

[Tripod]

That said, RFA wingers in that echelon have no precedent to make Eichel/Matthews money. I think Matthews got a little overpaid, but I don't see how Marner can look around the league and make a case that he's worth that other than a plea for intra-team pay equity

The issue with the "RFA comparables", is that the landscape of the RFA vs UFA has completely changed...in part due to the Matthews contract. Marner and his agent now want to set that precedent for wingers with Marner. Can't blame him when, as you said, there is intra-team pay equity going on.

Offering Marner a contract that is 11 million SHOWS to him that the Leafs feel he is just as important and JT and Matthews. Offering him 10 million does not. But as I have said before, I think to get that 11, Marner needs to bend on term and sign for 7 years.

 

[NinjaKick]

Except when you put it in actual context, it's not as impressive.


I'm not ignoring anything. None of these make him worth more than Matthews.

His 2 way game is not better than Matthews. Matthews has played versus top competition more in his career, and with less help. His playmaking is great, but that's no more special than Matthews' goal-scoring, and goal-scoring is worth more.

excuse me... when did I say Marner was more valuable than Matthews? don't put words in my mouth... I have Marner on the SAME level as Matthews and Tavares... he proved that to me this season... what more he has to do to impress you is over my head..
leading a strong team like the Leafs in scoring is extremely impressive to me.. especially at his age... it was not a hot streak LOL
and you say Matthews 2 way game is better than Marners? we'll agree to disagree

 

[Randy Randerson]

The issue with the "RFA comparables", is that the landscape of the RFA vs UFA has completely changed...in part due to the Matthews contract. Marner and his agent now want to set that precedent for wingers with Marner. Can't blame him when, as you said, there is intra-team pay equity going on.

Offering Marner a contract that is 11 million SHOWS to him that the Leafs feel he is just as important and JT and Matthews. Offering him 10 million does not. But as I have said before, I think to get that 11, Marner needs to bend on term and sign for 7 years.

I do see the balance of pay between RFA's and UFA's changing, but the scales aren't even, just closer than they used to be. Even UFA comparables, the only ones in the league that make what Marner is rumoured to be looking for have done a lot more than he has

The intra-team pay equity angle is too semantic imo, I get why Marner wants to use it, but having to pay way more for him than another team would because Toronto happens to have a couple of elite centers who get paid like it just handicaps the team. If Marner's ego can't handle being paid at market for wingers because he can't play center (and they did try to put him there in his D+1 in the OHL, it didn't work), then I'm fine with the idea of moving on from him. It's a business, and emotions can't be the driving force for decision making.

 

[Tripod]

I do see the balance of pay between RFA's and UFA's changing, but the scales aren't even, just closer than they used to be. Even UFA comparables, the only ones in the league that make what Marner is rumoured to be looking for have done a lot more than he has

The intra-team pay equity angle is too semantic imo, I get why Marner wants to use it, but having to pay way more for him than another team would because Toronto happens to have a couple of elite centers who get paid like it just handicaps the team. If Marner's ego can't handle being paid at market for wingers because he can't play center (and they did try to put him there in his D+1 in the OHL, it didn't work), then I'm fine with the idea of moving on from him. It's a business, and emotions can't be the driving force for decision making.

And that's all fair to say.

But we all can see why no deal is done so far. Leafs want to pay him like wingers on other teams, Marner's agent wants to be paid like his teammates that he outscored.

I will keep sticking to 11x7 as a type of compromise. Marner gets his 11, but gives up term to help the Leafs.

 

[Budz]

Insert generic why isn't anything happening comment.

This whole Marner thing has me like:

Me: Alexa, how many days till training camp?
Alexa: Showing prices for tanning lamps.

Pass me a beer.

 

[tsujimoto74]

How is it pretty clear?

I remember seeing tweets that CBJ and NYI were willing to go north of $12M on AAV over 7 years. Marner wanted less term. Teams didn't---when you're giving up 4 1st round picks to get a guy, you want to be sure he'll be around long enough to make it worth your while.

 

[Red Piller]

I'm of the opinion that Marner is a star who's going to put up 85-100pts with or without a Tavares level center. He worked well with Kadri as well, and Kadri is very stylistically similar to Tavares - very good at putting the puck in the net from within 20 feet without having to touch it for long - and that archetype has a lot of synergy with Marner's game where he carries the puck a lot in the offensive zone and changes angles to get someone a good look from in close.

That said, RFA wingers in that echelon have no precedent to make Eichel/Matthews money. I think Matthews got a little overpaid, but I don't see how Marner can look around the league and make a case that he's worth that other than a plea for intra-team pay equity

Intra team pay is a thing though.

 

[Randy Randerson]

And that's all fair to say.

But we all can see why no deal is done so far. Leafs want to pay him like wingers on other teams, Marner's agent wants to be paid like his teammates that he outscored.

I will keep sticking to 11x7 as a type of compromise. Marner gets his 11, but gives up term to help the Leafs.

the rumour is that Dubas said he would go to the $11M for 8 years, so I guess I could see that even though its still a million a year too much by comparison. I guess Point/Rantanen could change the landscape again but Aho might have moved it down

I think it will land in a $8-9M aav for 2-3 years

 

[Randy Randerson]

Intra team pay is a thing though.

so each team has a different salary cap?

 

[Red Piller]

so each team has a different salary cap?

Each team had a salary structure that they go by yes. When chara was still one of the best defense men nobody new coming in or resigning would make more than him etc

 

[Randy Randerson]

Each team had a salary structure that they go by yes. When chara was still one of the best defense men nobody new coming in or resigning would make more than him etc

I think you missed my question here - what you're saying effectively means that the league-dictated salary cap limit is different by team because the same commodity has a different cost to each team.

I don't know what you're trying to say in the bolded

 

[janesy12]

the rumour is that Dubas said he would go to the $11M for 8 years, so I guess I could see that even though its still a million a year too much by comparison. I guess Point/Rantanen could change the landscape again but Aho might have moved it down

I think it will land in a $8-9M aav for 2-3 years

Same. Unfortunately I think it'll be $9m per for 3 years.

 

[NinjaKick]

imo $11 million over 8 years would be the best scenario... the cap keeps going up... Marner is only 22 and will only get better...
but a 2-3 year deal with a lessor cap hit does make sense as well