Confirmed with Link: Miro Heiskanen signs extension (8 years, $8.45M AAV)

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

I checked McAvoy's stats, and they were surprisingly close to Miro's. I would still rather have Miro, based on the eye test, especially at $1 Mil less per year.

Now, if he can only convince Klinger that he should be paid less than Miro, that would be a secondary advantage to Miro's contract. In poor taste, but I have to wonder if Nill rushed down to the locker room last night to negotiate with JK while he was either woozy, or aware of his mortality as a hockey player.

 

[BG44]

McAvoy is a poor comparison to both Heiskanen and Klingberg.

Klingberg is going to be an UFA. McAvoy is a RFA.

This is McAvoy's 3rd contract. He signed a 3 year bridge which means Boston is buying more UFA years than Heiskanen.

 

[BG44]

Same is true of Heiskanen and Klingberg. No comparison whatsoever. RFA vs. UFA is not insignificant.

 

[JesusNPucks]

McAvoy is a poor comparison to both Heiskanen and Klingberg.

Klingberg is going to be an UFA. McAvoy is a RFA.

This is McAvoy's 3rd contract. He signed a 3 year bridge which means Boston is buying more UFA years than Heiskanen.

I agree and disagree. On the one hand I see the difference between the two and why it matters. On the other hand, your average fan doesn’t care and tends to think along the lines of, “What is our team’s franchise defenseman being paid compared to another team’s?” This is often what HF fights about, for example.

Same is true of Heiskanen and Klingberg. No comparison whatsoever. RFA vs. UFA is not insignificant.

Again, I both agree and disagree. For example, the “Bergeron cap” existed in Boston. Players get compared to one another all the time, regardless of their free agent status.

IMHO, the Heiskanen contract communicated that he is the franchise defenseman going forward. So why should Klingberg get more than the team’s franchise defenseman? UFA/RFA matters, but so do the optics without regard for free agent status.

 

[BG44]

I got to be honest ... your average fan's opinion means zero when Janko is working with Heiskanen's and Klingberg's agents on a deal. Whether they understand the nuisances of free agency (and they really don't need to) doesn't factor in to how NHL contracts work.

 

[BG44]

Also, regarding Heiskanen, his contract says very little about Dallas and everything about what players like Makar, Hughes, and Heiskanen are valued at right now.

 

[JesusNPucks]

I got to be honest ... your average fan's opinion means zero when Janko is working with Heiskanen's and Klingberg's agents on a deal. Whether they understand the nuisances of free agency (and they really don't need to) doesn't factor in to how NHL contracts work.

Of course! Nothing we talked about on here has an effect on the team. But if Klingberg ends up with a bigger contract than Heiskanen, I doubt there will be one happy person on the Stars boards. I doubt one of us will be understanding of the fact that Klingberg is a UFA. That’s the “world” the rest of us operate in.

 

[Gauchito]

Why Heiskanen should be paid more than Klingberg is that Miro just gives so much more. Miro can easily take 1pp minutes but he can as well play 1pk minutes. Klinger might have more points but Miro as a complete player is something that Klingberg cant never be.

 

[BG44]

That's irrational though. Your advocating that because some people don't understand how a contract in the NHL works, the team should cater to them in contract negotiations while also suggesting that somehow our opinion on HF matters in any way.

 

[serp]

Janko and overall the Stars in general clearly have to keep roster construction in mind when offering Klingberg a new contract . I don't think a deal that has a higher caphit than Heiskanen makes sense . Not at 8 years. Stars don't have to sign just Klingberg. Robertson and Hintz could get seriously expensive too for example.

 

[BG44]

Why Heiskanen should be paid more than Klingberg is that Miro just gives so much more. Miro can easily take 1pp minutes but he can as well play 1pk minutes. Klinger might have more points but Miro as a complete player is something that Klingberg cant never be.

No one would suggest Seth Jones should be making more than Cale Makar but he is. Someone could choose to ignore the reality of the way NHL contracts work, but it would not have an impact on the contracts guys sign.

Klingberg can choose to take a discount which would be wonderful. Dallas could choose to use fan logic and when FA starts have to convince Klingberg that he should not take the $9+ million that is on the table from multiple teams.

Quite a few things could happen, but it still doesn't change the reality of UFA contracts. The more special or rare a player is, and a right shot offensive D like Klingberg is highly sought after, the more ridiculous those numbers become.

I'm not arguing that meritocracy isn't logical. That's just not how RFA and UFA contracts work.

 

[BG44]

Janko and overall the Stars in general clearly have to keep roster construction in mind when offering Klingberg a new contract . I don't think a deal that has a higher caphit than Heiskanen makes sense . Not at 8 years. Stars don't have to sign just Klingberg. Robertson and Hintz could get seriously expensive too for example.

The Stars are always pretty focused on that. Its something Nill preaches often. Be abuse of their dudiligence, all of those guys can fit. Its a matter of if they want to or not, and that's definitely a fair debate.

I'm rounding up and may have missed some contracts since I'm on my phone, but they have more than $17.5 million coming off this summer. They have more than $12 million the following summer, and the next year they have around $19 million coming off.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

....the “Bergeron cap” existed in Boston.

And both the Benn and Miro cap exist in Dallas, presuming JK wants to stay. Of course, we thought Jamie O wanted to stay, but he bolted for a big paycheck.

I think Seguin's market value was probably 10+Mil, but he took a few dollars over Benn's contract, enough to allow Benn and fans to say he had the same contract after you figure inflation.

JK might get a few $$ more than $8.45 (Miro's AAV) for inflation but not a lot. At least here. If he is still in the mode of taking a guaranteed contract over AAV, it could very well be just a little less.

Again, I am trying to think of players the Stars let get away that really hurt them. I recall being appalled that they let Hatcher go, although Lites made sure we knew he had bad knees, and they were right, as it turned out. In the end, right now, for all JK knows, we have a credible (and close, but not as good even if he really develops) in Harley, so they may also use that as a sort of unspoken threat over his head, playing like they don't need him, they just want him, etc. And, to some degree, that will be true. While you can't replace a Klingberg with one player, it's not like most of his points wouldn't be replaced by a committee or a few individual players stepping up.

 

[Johno]

…
…

Klingberg can choose to take a discount which would be wonderful. Dallas could choose to use fan logic and when FA starts have to convince Klingberg that he should not take the $9+ million that is on the table from multiple teams.
…
...

I think the more important part here is to actually remember how big the eighth year is for a contract, especially at John’s age. Getting the $9,5mil on the open market for 7 years is matched by ~$8,3mil for 8 years. Or less than what Heiskanen makes.

Then there’s the aspect of is he willing to take a “hometown” discount as well as factoring in some of the tax benefit. Latter isn’t as big as it’s sometimes made out to be but still a good incentive.

As I have pointed out, I think a sensible extension is around $7,25-7,65mil for 8 years. Or comparable to $8,3-8,75mil for 7 years on the open market.

 

[BG44]

I think the more important part here is to actually remember how big the eighth year is for a contract, especially at John’s age. Getting the $9,5mil on the open market for 7 years is matched by ~$8,3mil for 8 years. Or less than what Heiskanen makes.

Then there’s the aspect of is he willing to take a “hometown” discount as well as factoring in some of the tax benefit. Latter isn’t as big as it’s sometimes made out to be but still a good incentive.

As I have pointed out, I think a sensible extension is around $7,25-7,65mil for 8 years. Or comparable to $8,3-8,75mil for 7 years on the open market.

I'm not suggesting numbers i think will happen because players do take discounts, but if you're going to throw out market value for a defenseman like John Klingberg, that data is hard and fast, and its not a number that starts with an 8.

The market is adjusted every new contract, and new contracts have a greater impact.

You're best hope is to not be the team that sets an even higher market, and I am confident Dallas won't do that.

 

[BG44]

....the “Bergeron cap” existed in Boston.

And both the Benn and Miro cap exist in Dallas, presuming JK wants to stay. Of course, we thought Jamie O wanted to stay, but he bolted for a big paycheck.

I think Seguin's market value was probably 10+Mil, but he took a few dollars over Benn's contract, enough to allow Benn and fans to say he had the same contract after you figure inflation.

JK might get a few $$ more than $8.45 (Miro's AAV) for inflation but not a lot. At least here. If he is still in the mode of taking a guaranteed contract over AAV, it could very well be just a little less.

Again, I am trying to think of players the Stars let get away that really hurt them. I recall being appalled that they let Hatcher go, although Lites made sure we knew he had bad knees, and they were right, as it turned out. In the end, right now, for all JK knows, we have a credible (and close, but not as good even if he really develops) in Harley, so they may also use that as a sort of unspoken threat over his head, playing like they don't need him, they just want him, etc. And, to some degree, that will be true. While you can't replace a Klingberg with one player, it's not like most of his points wouldn't be replaced by a committee or a few individual players stepping up.

Whether or not Dallas should sign Klingberg is a reasonable conversation, but it's also not the one I'm most interested in.

If they want to sign Klingberg, there's a market, completely independent of Miro Heiskanen, Tyler Seguin, and Jamie Oleksiak. How any of them made a decision about their contract isn't a predictor fora a separate person.

Jamie Oleksiak didn't chase a huge pay day. It was several hundred thousand a year. Dallas had a number and didn't budge, and both sides probably made the right decision.

For every Radek Fassa who signs a below market deal, there is an Esa Lindell that sets the market higher for future RFA D at his level.

You can't just randomly grab 0arts of different negotiations that fit the narrative you hope to see happen.

Boston is also not Dallas. We have no idea if Nill would feel the same way, but to suggest its common because a single team went down that path isn't logical either.

People aren't algebra equations. I don't mean that in a negative way, and I agree and can be helpful to assess what options are available, but you can't take it so far that because this guy did ABC that other guy will.

Here is the only prediction I'd be willing to make. It will either play out identically as it did with Benn/Seguin where taxes, SB, buyout proof contracts, etc. slightly lowered the cap OR like Oleksiak they just don't close the gap. If its a sweet hometown discount, awesome. I'd be thrilled.

I also don't particularly care about Hatcher, Hull, or Modano because I don't think it would be totally catastrophic to lose him. It'll hurt in terms of asset management which always sucks, but hoping he signs doesn't mean I endorse the idea the organization is a failure if they don't.

 

[Captain Awesome]

The hardest piece to track is which teams are going to have money to spend at UFA time next year. This year with the expansion draft a lot of teams basically got a contract taken away for free, which really opened things up for the UFA market. With a flat cap, there's always the possibility that few to no (attractive) teams can afford to give Klingberg what he deserves, and his market price doesn't end up being as high as we think. It's unlikely that Klingberg couldn't find a taker to throw money at him, but maybe the market is smaller or the cap hit is slightly depressed from league-wide cap crunch, and we can save ~$1M/yr or something. As an example, I'm really surprised Dougie Hamilton went to New Jersey, but I think a lot of the better teams just didn't have the money to add a piece that big.

Even if that did happen, I'd still think Klingberg is worth $8M+ on the open market for the 7 year term. IMO, anything in the $7M range would be a massive discount for a very capable offensive d-man who plays the right side, these guys are worth their weight in gold. Also, because GMs and fans tend to irrationally hold on to who a player was a few years ago, maybe there are teams out there that value Klingberg like an elite #1D that he hasn't really been the last couple of years. I think there are legitimate arguments to counter the idea that he's just aging, but like I've mentioned before, I wouldn't bet a new 8 year contract on those arguments.