Player Discussion: Mikhail Sergachev

[waterboy65]

MS is a Norris Trophy type talent down the road. Yes he needs to work hard at his game to improve but he already has moves and skills that only 10% of all defenseman possess. It took watching him about 10 games last year to see that his talent was worthy of being a top overall pick in the draft. Montreal's desire to add a Quebec native to its roster led to them blindly making a trade that still has me scratching my head!

 

[LTIR Trickery]

MS is a Norris Trophy type talent down the road. Yes he needs to work hard at his game to improve but he already has moves and skills that only 10% of all defenseman possess. It took watching him about 10 games last year to see that his talent was worthy of being a top overall pick in the draft. Montreal's desire to add a Quebec native to its roster led to them blindly making a trade that still has me scratching my head!

Love the enthusiasm, but I don't see him ever really in competition for a Norris. I think he'll produce well as a pro and likely be above average defensively.

 

[Boxscore]

MS is a Norris Trophy type talent down the road. Yes he needs to work hard at his game to improve but he already has moves and skills that only 10% of all defenseman possess. It took watching him about 10 games last year to see that his talent was worthy of being a top overall pick in the draft. Montreal's desire to add a Quebec native to its roster led to them blindly making a trade that still has me scratching my head!

I don't see it. Not that he isn't a super talent - he is - just that his game is not as complete as some, as steady as others, or as dynamic as the elite. I also think young D like Dahlin, Provorov, Jones and McAvoy are going to be too good for too long for Sergachev to surpass them, let alone players like Karlsson, Doughty and Hedman who will be in steady contention for the Norris for another 6 years or so.

I think Sergachev will end up more in the Brent Seabrook / Andrei Markov mold where he is considered "awesome" but never quite good enough to win a Norris.

That said, if Tampa has Andrei Markov 2.0 to play behind Victor Hedman, they are in awesome shape for a long time.

 

[The Macho King]

Eh - it's hard to put a ceiling on a 19 year old. Hedman didn't look like a Norris contender then. Sergachev is certainly better at the same age (not saying that development is linear).

 

[Rschmitz]

Not really sure what Sergachev is going to be, but his size/speed/skill combination is easily Norris caliber and he played like someone who could win one in that Washington series. We won't know till he is weaned off Stralman and OZS

 

[Larry Lightning]

Not sure if I see Norris upside but he's going to be a key piece of our team for the next 10 years. His first season blew my expectations out of the water. If he can improve upon his rookie season and become a go to dman in all situations, he may get into that conversation. As of right now it's hard to see it with all the other high end D coming up through the draft, not too mention all the young top D already making their case (Jones, McAvoy, Provorov) as a previous poster mentioned.

 

[Master P]

I'd like to see him with more defensive zone starts. I think he will be good at carrying the puck out of the zone.

 

[The Macho King]

I'd like to see him with more defensive zone starts. I think he will be good at carrying the puck out of the zone.

He has that Stralman-esque "step away from forechecking" move.

I think they handled his first year right. He was able to do the things he was good at without having to focus too much on everything else. He still played D. He made some mistakes, but they put him back out there. He'll get his chance this year to take on more responsibility. I think the coaches showed a lot of trust in the playoffs with him, so I expect him to get top 4 minutes (maybe alongside McDonagh).

 

[Master P]

He has that Stralman-esque "step away from forechecking" move.

I think they handled his first year right. He was able to do the things he was good at without having to focus too much on everything else. He still played D. He made some mistakes, but they put him back out there. He'll get his chance this year to take on more responsibility. I think the coaches showed a lot of trust in the playoffs with him, so I expect him to get top 4 minutes (maybe alongside McDonagh).

Its crazy how calm he is when there is someone on him. Its almost like he prefers to play with somebody constantly harasing him. Plus he has a bit of a mean side that I like. I think he is going to be something very special.

 

[Sky04]

Its crazy how calm he is when there is someone on him. Its almost like he prefers to play with somebody constantly harasing him. Plus he has a bit of a mean side that I like. I think he is going to be something very special.

That same habit caused him to get burned many times this year, being calm is cool but you've got to know when to pick up the urgency. Aggressive forecheckers like Marchand killed Sergachev this year because he thought he could take his 2 strides and they guy would give up.

He's got a lot of developing to do on the defensive side, when given top minutes when Hedman was out, Sergachev was removed after 2 games where he was brutal next to Stralman as a top unit - he was better in the playoffs but that was also after the acquisition of McD to further take the load off him.

 

[waterboy65]

Do people not remember how inconsistent Hedman looked in his first full year in the NHL? Or how Karlsson was a dumpster fire in his own end for several early years. No 19 year old is going to be a shut down top pairing defenseman and any expectation that Sergachev was that or will be that as a 20 year old is missing point on Norris talent or skills. Serg is not a Norris trophy type defenseman for at least another 4 or 5 years but he has the raw materials to get there. If properly developed which includes both mental and physical skills, he is on a short list of young defenseman that can get there. Even as bad as Hedman looked early on, his size and skating were early indicators that if he worked hard on his development, a NT was a possibility.

 

[Sky04]

Do people not remember how inconsistent Hedman looked in his first full year in the NHL? Or how Karlsson was a dumpster fire in his own end for several early years. No 19 year old is going to be a shut down top pairing defenseman and any expectation that Sergachev was that or will be that as a 20 year old is missing point on Norris talent or skills. Serg is not a Norris trophy type defenseman for at least another 4 or 5 years but he has the raw materials to get there. If properly developed which includes both mental and physical skills, he is on a short list of young defenseman that can get there. Even as bad as Hedman looked early on, his size and skating were early indicators that if he worked hard on his development, a NT was a possibility.

I like how you say this when there was literally a 19 year old defenseman this season who played top competition and was a Calder favorite all year long. Or Doughty who played 23+mins a night when he was a rookie.

There are several different "Norris defenseman" who enter the league every year depending on which fanbase you ask. There have only been 8 different Norris winners since Hedman entered the league 11 years ago, and it's usually the same 3-4 names that come up every year. Do I think Sergachev can be a top-3/4 defenseman in the league? No. That doesn't mean he can't be a great defenseman alltogether - people just like to hype up their own players blindly. Hedman is a poor comparison, regardless of how he started out his talent/skill-set was far higher than Sergachev's, but then again so was Tyler Myers and look how that turned out.

Even if he ends up as an OEL-esque defenseman (a guy who's never won the Norris) - that's still a great result no need to attach a label and get offended when people don't think he'll be the best defenseman in the league.

 

[DFC]

Do people not remember how inconsistent Hedman looked in his first full year in the NHL? Or how Karlsson was a dumpster fire in his own end for several early years. No 19 year old is going to be a shut down top pairing defenseman and any expectation that Sergachev was that or will be that as a 20 year old is missing point on Norris talent or skills. Serg is not a Norris trophy type defenseman for at least another 4 or 5 years but he has the raw materials to get there. If properly developed which includes both mental and physical skills, he is on a short list of young defenseman that can get there. Even as bad as Hedman looked early on, his size and skating were early indicators that if he worked hard on his development, a NT was a possibility.

Just because not every Norris winner looks like a Norris winner early on doesn't mean everybody who doesn't look like a Norris winner will eventually be one.

As good as MS's raw skillset is, it's not Hedman's. Even when Hedman's decision-making was questionable and/or downright awful, the skillset was always there. MS's skillset is spectacular, but he's not in the shoe-in Norris category, IMO, or even shoe-in #1. Could he develop into that? Sure, but he's the same longshot as every other talented young Dman.

Either way, I think there will be a lot of bumps along the road. As great as a 40 point rookie season is, let's not pretend he put up 40 with the Sabres or the Coyotes. And Serg put up most of his goals/points early on, when teams likely had no idea how well he could shoot the puck, or how dangerous he is 1-on-1.

I think the league adjusted to him a bit and now he's gonna have to readjust, and this is what it's gonna be like until we find his ceiling.

Victor Hedman is a once in a blue moon defenseman, who appears to be taking steps forward, however small, when many of the top Dmen of his generation are leveling off or taking steps backward. It's tough to say what Sergachev's ceiling is right now, but I think it's a little early to be thinking he's automatically going to be one of the top few Dmen in the game. Even among guys who have that potential, very few of them ever live up to it.

 

[waterboy65]

I like how you say this when there was literally a 19 year old defenseman this season who played top competition and was a Calder favorite all year long. Or Doughty who played 23+mins a night when he was a rookie.

There are several different "Norris defenseman" who enter the league every year depending on which fanbase you ask. There have only been 8 different Norris winners since Hedman entered the league 11 years ago, and it's usually the same 3-4 names that come up every year. Do I think Sergachev can be a top-3/4 defenseman in the league? No. That doesn't mean he can't be a great defenseman alltogether - people just like to hype up their own players blindly. Hedman is a poor comparison, regardless of how he started out his talent/skill-set was far higher than Sergachev's, but then again so was Tyler Myers and look how that turned out.

Even if he ends up as an OEL-esque defenseman (a guy who's never won the Norris) - that's still a great result no need to attach a label and get offended when people don't think he'll be the best defenseman in the league.

Sergachev has as many 40 pt seasons as Doughty or Brent Burns did in their first 6 years in the NHL. In fact, Sergachev's first year stat wise is probably comparable to Burns (former Norris Trophy winner) 4th year in the league. I can accept someone saying that they dont think Sergachev will ever win a NT just because so few have done so. But Sergachev's skill sets are rare for a 19 year old. He is not a finished product. Heck, I dare anyone to say that Burns projected to be a NT winner at the age of 19 considering his stats were so meager. Conversely, had Serg played on a poor team and gotten 20 plus mins TOI he may have put up another 10 to 15 pts and his numbers would have been truly spectacular. Yes he would have also made many more mistakes but he still would have been better defensively than Karlsson who was an absolute dumpster fire in his own end. Subban is another kid that struggled mightily in his own end early on! We should be thankful that Serg gets to play with veterans on this team who can show him how to do it the right way.

 

[Sky04]

Sergachev has as many 40 pt seasons as Doughty or Brent Burns did in their first 6 years in the NHL. In fact, Sergachev's first year stat wise is probably comparable to Burns (former Norris Trophy winner) 4th year in the league. I can accept someone saying that they dont think Sergachev will ever win a NT just because so few have done so. But Sergachev's skill sets are rare for a 19 year old. He is not a finished product. Heck, I dare anyone to say that Burns projected to be a NT winner at the age of 19 considering his stats were so meager. Conversely, had Serg played on a poor team and gotten 20 plus mins TOI he may have put up another 10 to 15 pts and his numbers would have been truly spectacular. Yes he would have also made many more mistakes but he still would have been better defensively than Karlsson who was an absolute dumpster fire in his own end. Subban is another kid that struggled mightily in his own end early on! We should be thankful that Serg gets to play with veterans on this team who can show him how to do it the right way.

Doughty was significantly better as a rookie, just like McAvoy was compared to Sergachev this year - if you need use the points argument without any other context you need to re-evaluate your analysis.

I'm pretty sure everyone here except you knows that Sergachev was put in an extremely favorable environment to play his game, and that playing 20mins + on a bottom feeding team would've gone poorly for him. Sergachev was a dumpster fire when put on the first unit when Hedman was out - he didn't last 2 games before they moved Coburn up. Nothing this year showed me Sergachev was ready for a #1/2 role.

 

[Sky04]

Sergachev has as many 40 pt seasons as Doughty or Brent Burns did in their first 6 years in the NHL. In fact, Sergachev's first year stat wise is probably comparable to Burns (former Norris Trophy winner) 4th year in the league. I can accept someone saying that they dont think Sergachev will ever win a NT just because so few have done so. But Sergachev's skill sets are rare for a 19 year old. He is not a finished product. Heck, I dare anyone to say that Burns projected to be a NT winner at the age of 19 considering his stats were so meager. Conversely, had Serg played on a poor team and gotten 20 plus mins TOI he may have put up another 10 to 15 pts and his numbers would have been truly spectacular. Yes he would have also made many more mistakes but he still would have been better defensively than Karlsson who was an absolute dumpster fire in his own end. Subban is another kid that struggled mightily in his own end early on! We should be thankful that Serg gets to play with veterans on this team who can show him how to do it the right way.

This is probably the silliest part of your post, alluding to linear development. So, Burns took 4 years to score 40 points, it also took him 8 years to score 75 points, so Sergachev who did 40 in 1/4th the time as Burns did is going to do 75+ next season? the season after?

 

[VoluntaryDom]

This is probably the silliest part of your post, alluding to linear development. So, Burns took 4 years to score 40 points, it also took him 8 years to score 75 points, so Sergachev who did 40 in 1/4th the time as Burns did is going to do 75+ next season? the season after?

I don’t think that’s what he’s trying to say, more so that you don’t have to produce early to be a future norris player but Serg produced early anyway

 

[Sky04]

I don’t think that’s what he’s trying to say, more so that you don’t have to produce early to be a future norris player but Serg produced early anyway

Where did he say that? He directly compared Sergachev's season to 2 Norris winners because they didn't produce early and Sergachev did. You know who else had 40 point rookie seasons? Will Butcher, Tyler Myers, Tyson Barrie, Shane Gostibehere, Tory Krug, Cam Fowler, none of those guys are top-5 defenseman, all of them out produced Doughty and Burns as rookies too, did they end up being Norris defenseman too?

All good defenseman but some of you should probably temper your expectations.

 

[Shoresy Snipes]

Either way, isn't it nice to be debating whether we might have another future Norris contender on the team.

I wonder if Montreal is having the same type of conversations about JoDru. (sinister laugh)

 

[JoVel]

Either way, isn't it nice to be debating whether we might have another future Norris contender on the team.

I wonder if Montreal is having the same type of conversations about JoDru. (sinister laugh)

Maybe they should try him at defense to see of he has any hope for a Norris in the future.

 

[waterboy65]

Doughty was significantly better as a rookie, just like McAvoy was compared to Sergachev this year - if you need use the points argument without any other context you need to re-evaluate your analysis.

I'm pretty sure everyone here except you knows that Sergachev was put in an extremely favorable environment to play his game, and that playing 20mins + on a bottom feeding team would've gone poorly for him. Sergachev was a dumpster fire when put on the first unit when Hedman was out - he didn't last 2 games before they moved Coburn up. Nothing this year showed me Sergachev was ready for a #1/2 role.

No I dont think everyone here things that Sergachev was a dumpster fire. He was not playing well at the time which coincided with the hedman injury. And come playoff time, Sergachev was playing effectively on both sides of the ice.

Also, the NT is all about points! Usually the defenseman that scores the most points is going to be a finalist for the award. So of course I am going to go back and look at pt totals of NT winners as a comparable to Sergachev. I never said that Serg is a NT winner this year or implied that he will win a NT ever. I said that based on the talents he exhibited this year (which did translate to 40 pts and among leaders of all rookies in goals) he could eventually be a NT candidate IF he works to improve his game. Hockey is about adjustments- both in season and off season. Serg came out strong- then teams adapted to his game and he struggled. He then continued to work hard and by March was back to playing at a high level not just for a 19 year old. I am excited we have a player of Serg's ability and whether he wins a NT or not will not define him as a good defenseman.

And not that fantasy rankings are the end all be all but being the 32 ranked NHL defenseman (as 19 year old by NHL.Com) is pretty damn impressive!

 

[CupsOverCash]

The fact that he is 19 and we are talking about whether or not he can win a Norris is pretty awesome. This is just one year removed from the trade too. I think the sample is too small to know for sure yet, but I love the way the kid plays. If he keeps developing then we really have a great player on our hands.

 

[DFC]

No I dont think everyone here things that Sergachev was a dumpster fire. He was not playing well at the time which coincided with the hedman injury. And come playoff time, Sergachev was playing effectively on both sides of the ice.

Also, the NT is all about points! Usually the defenseman that scores the most points is going to be a finalist for the award. So of course I am going to go back and look at pt totals of NT winners as a comparable to Sergachev. I never said that Serg is a NT winner this year or implied that he will win a NT ever. I said that based on the talents he exhibited this year (which did translate to 40 pts and among leaders of all rookies in goals) he could eventually be a NT candidate IF he works to improve his game. Hockey is about adjustments- both in season and off season. Serg came out strong- then teams adapted to his game and he struggled. He then continued to work hard and by March was back to playing at a high level not just for a 19 year old. I am excited we have a player of Serg's ability and whether he wins a NT or not will not define him as a good defenseman.

And not that fantasy rankings are the end all be all but being the 32 ranked NHL defenseman (as 19 year old by NHL.Com) is pretty damn impressive!

It's going to be tougher for Sergachev to put up points as time goes on. Improvements in his game will hopefully balance that out, but scoring 40 points as a rookie, on the best offensive team in the league, while being heavily sheltered most of the team, doesn't mean a guy is a lock to score 70 at some point in his career. Serg's offense took a massive step back as the season went on, and even in the playoffs, where his D looked much better, he still wasn't putting up a ton of points.

Development is not linear across all players. Some players come in a lot closer to their finalized form. The best example of that is probably Aaron Ekblad, who started his career so physically mature that there's just not a whole lot of room to grow. I think Sergachev is similar, although I do think he'll get a little bit physically better, whereas Ekblad at 30 will likely have a very similar physical skillset to what he had at 18. Other guys need longer to develop (I put Hedman in this category) because it takes them a few years, or several years, to get comfortable in their own body. So, while I do think Sergachev will improve, I think most of those improvements will be on the mental side. I don't think he's going to get a whole lot stronger or faster, or develop a better shot than he already has. His improvements will be almost all in the decision-making department, IMO, which will make him a much better player, but I'm not sure it'll lead to a whole lot more offense than we're seeing now. I think he's going to crack 50 points a few times, but 60 might be a stretch, because:

One big problem for him, in terms of individual success, is he's always going to be second choice to Victor Hedman. Hedman at 27 is still taking steps forward, which isn't uncommon with defensemen. Obviously, he'll slow down at some point, but will Sergachev at 25 be better than Hedman at 33? I'm not sold on that. The very best players in the NHL, and I think we'd all agree Hedman is one of those, who skate well, and Hedman obviously does that, tend to play at a high level even as they decline. So, for instance, top unit PP time is going to be hard to come by for Sergachev for quite some time, and who knows what the team will look like by the time he finally does pass Hedman on the depth chart?

Sergachev has a fantastic skillset, and he's pretty much perfect for what we need long-term. But what we need long-term is pretty much a guy who'll play Robin to Victor Hedman's Batman.

 

[waterboy65]

It's going to be tougher for Sergachev to put up points as time goes on. Improvements in his game will hopefully balance that out, but scoring 40 points as a rookie, on the best offensive team in the league, while being heavily sheltered most of the team, doesn't mean a guy is a lock to score 70 at some point in his career. Serg's offense took a massive step back as the season went on, and even in the playoffs, where his D looked much better, he still wasn't putting up a ton of points.

Development is not linear across all players. Some players come in a lot closer to their finalized form. The best example of that is probably Aaron Ekblad, who started his career so physically mature that there's just not a whole lot of room to grow. I think Sergachev is similar, although I do think he'll get a little bit physically better, whereas Ekblad at 30 will likely have a very similar physical skillset to what he had at 18. Other guys need longer to develop (I put Hedman in this category) because it takes them a few years, or several years, to get comfortable in their own body. So, while I do think Sergachev will improve, I think most of those improvements will be on the mental side. I don't think he's going to get a whole lot stronger or faster, or develop a better shot than he already has. His improvements will be almost all in the decision-making department, IMO, which will make him a much better player, but I'm not sure it'll lead to a whole lot more offense than we're seeing now. I think he's going to crack 50 points a few times, but 60 might be a stretch, because:

One big problem for him, in terms of individual success, is he's always going to be second choice to Victor Hedman. Hedman at 27 is still taking steps forward, which isn't uncommon with defensemen. Obviously, he'll slow down at some point, but will Sergachev at 25 be better than Hedman at 33? I'm not sold on that. The very best players in the NHL, and I think we'd all agree Hedman is one of those, who skate well, and Hedman obviously does that, tend to play at a high level even as they decline. So, for instance, top unit PP time is going to be hard to come by for Sergachev for quite some time, and who knows what the team will look like by the time he finally does pass Hedman on the depth chart?

Sergachev has a fantastic skillset, and he's pretty much perfect for what we need long-term. But what we need long-term is pretty much a guy who'll play Robin to Victor Hedman's Batman.

DFC- I respect your analysis and can agree with most of your points. Although, I dont think that Sergachev ends up being an ideal partner (Robin) to Hedman's batman. My idea of ideal defensive pairings is to put one attacking offensive creator with a more responsible defensive partner. Hedman/Serg are both Batman's. Stralman and McDonough are both Robins! So I would pair Hedman-Stralman and Serg-McDonough! At some point in near future, Foote ends up replacing Stralman.

 

[DFC]

DFC- I respect your analysis and can agree with most of your points. Although, I dont think that Sergachev ends up being an ideal partner (Robin) to Hedman's batman. My idea of ideal defensive pairings is to put one attacking offensive creator with a more responsible defensive partner. Hedman/Serg are both Batman's. Stralman and McDonough are both Robins! So I would pair Hedman-Stralman and Serg-McDonough! At some point in near future, Foote ends up replacing Stralman.

I'm not talking about pairings. More that Sergachev is going to be second choice for all premium opportunities on this team for a long, long time. Hedman's at a level very, very few defensemen get to in their careers, and even when he slows down, it'll probably still be a while (after he slows down) before Sergachev overtakes him.