Value of: Mikeal Backlund

Discussion in 'Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk' started by FameFlame069, Jan 9, 2020.

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  1. Richard88 Registered User

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    I agree about Helleson. His shutdown playstyle makes him a better fit on the 3rd pairing long-term than Timmins who is somewhat redundant given how many other puckmoving Dmen we have.

    You're right that this team probably doesn't need an elite 3C. But if there's an opportunity to acquire one at a reasonable price why not consider it?
     
  2. McJedi Registered User

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    When is there ever an opportunity to acquire a elite 3C at a reasonable price? Those are almost always huge overpays that look awful in hindsight.

    It’s why I’d aim for the decent 3C, not the elite one. Because a decent 3C is all the Avs really need.
     
  3. Richard88 Registered User

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    Tampa paid a heavy price for Coleman and that worked out pretty well for them.
     
  4. Boondock Registered User

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    Cloeman was 28 and signed through that season and the next at a very reasonable $1.8. Backlund is 31 (32 next month) is owed $5.3 this season and 3 more after that. Before Backlund's contract expires the Avs will need to re-sign or replace MacKinnon, Landy, Kadri, Burakovsky, Toews, Byram, Makar, Grubauer - this is just some of the bigger names. With a flat cap that $5.3 for a #3C will mean the Avs will be in serious cap trouble.
     
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  5. Richard88 Registered User

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    You're absolutely right, Avs can't take on Backlund at $5.35m, period.

    My suggestions involve retention though. At $1m or $2m retained that contract might become feasible.

    I mentioned it earlier in another thread that I later realised wasn't the Backlund thread, but how about this?:

    • Backlund ($2m retained) + Bennett ($1m retained) for Compher ($1m retained) + Timmins + 1st
    • ($3.35m x 4) + ($1.55m x 1) for ($2.5m x 3) + ($925k x 1)

    That's $4.9m for $3.425m (Avs take on ~$1.5m).

    The retention by year would be:
    • 2020/21: $3m retention for CGY, $1m retention for COL
    • 2021/22: $2m retention for CGY, $1m retention for COL.
    • 2022/23: $2m retention for CGY, $1m retention for COL.
    • 2023/24: $2m retention for CGY
    That effectively manages the retention to be at appropriate levels through out the duration of the contracts, rather than just having an outright $2m retention for CGY throughout.

    This season Avs would benefit from $2m net retention ($3m vs $1m, though the actual dollars are only 22% of that as it's at the deadline). In year 2 and 3 it's only $1m retained by Calgary effectively. Then in the final year when Backlund is 34-35 years old Avs would get an extra $1m off the books when Compher's contract expires, which builds some leeway into the trade to compensate for Backlund aging. Backlund at $3.35m would also be much more moveable at any stage than if he didn't have any retention.

    From Calgary's perspective they would get out of the bad years of Backlund's contract, and Compher's contract would also come off the books before Backlund's last year. Avs meanwhile would get a 3C at a manageable caphit, and then have the flexibility to move him later on if needed.
     
  6. Boondock Registered User

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    If the Flames are willing to eat $6million in retention than it looks good for the Avs. I don't see Calgary wanting to do that, especially since there will be no revenue for the better part of 2 seasons.

    I also totally understand the want factor in adding Backlund. I was a seasons ticket holder for the flames AHL team during Backlund's early years, I'm a big fan of the person and the player.
     
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  7. Richard88 Registered User

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    They'd be eating $6m on Backlund, but Avs would be retaining $1m x 2 of Compher, so the difference would be $4m in the last two years. Not ideal, and I guess unlikely that Calgary's owners would want that sort of retention, but then again perhaps they'd be enamoroued enough with the rest of the return proposed to accept that. If they want to turn the page and commit to a rebuild it would be a pretty solid starting point to add Timmins and a high pick.
     
  8. Tkachuk Norris Registered User

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    Hockey is situational. Backlund is a top 30 center in the league 5 on 5. No he’s not a PP specialist so he’ll never get the HF headlines. But his impact at 5 on 5 is elite and has been for 6-7 years. That’s what you are missing. The guy is a dominant player 5 on 5. There is a reason he has worn the C for Sweden at world championships. He’s just an elite two way player who would help any team. You can say he’s a third line center but it’s a horrendous take.
     
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  9. Boondock Registered User

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    Actually your original deal the cap retention for the Flames was 3 (Bennett and Backlund) + 2 + 2 + 2 = $9million
    Retention on TJC was 1 + 1 + 1 = $3million

    Difference would be $6million in retention
     
  10. Richard88 Registered User

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    Backlund has 5 straight seasons of 45-50 points and has gotten Selke votes in the last 4 years. He's clearly more than a 3C even though he's playing 3C.

    Imo that's exactly what the Avs need. If Mackinnon or Kadri get injured in the playoffs you need to be able to count on your 3rd center to step into the top 6 without skipping a beat. Tampa can do that with Stamkos-Point-Cirelli-Gourde down the middle. Avs on the other hand put Compher at 1C when Mackinnon was injured recently and that went terribly. Adding Backlund would give the Avs 3 legit top 6 centers, thereby giving them insurance in case of injuries, as well as creating matchup problems for the opposition as the Avs would effectively have an elite 1st line and then two 2nd lines in their middle 6, along with a solid 4th line:

    Landeskog ---- Mackinnon ---- Rantanen
    Burakovsky ------- Kadri -------- Donskoi
    Nichuskin ------- Backlund ----- Saad
    Calvert ---------- Bellemare ----- Jost
     
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  11. McJedi Registered User

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    He’s 3C on the Avs. So since hockey is situational as you say. In that situation, he’s a 3C.

    and slow your roll with that elite nonsense. Nate MacKinnon is elite. Makar is elite. But there are only a select few elite NHL players. If Backlund is one of them, then deductive logic tells us Monaghan is elite. So is Giordano, Johnny G, Lindholm, Tkachuk and so on. And Calgary would be coming off a three peat of Cup wins loaded with elite nhl talent.

    but in real world, Calgary has zero “elite” players. Zero. Which is why they are a non playoff entity headed for a lottery pick.
    Backlund is a pretty good C. 2C on many teams. 1C on bad teams and a 3C on good teams. He’s not elite. He’s not even close to elite.
     
  12. Richard88 Registered User

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    The first year of retention doesn't really amount to much since only 22% of salary remains after the deadline.

    22% of $3m = $660k

    22% of Compher's $1m retention would be $220k.

    So Calgary would effectively only be retaining $440k this season, relative to Colorado.

    Year 1: $440k
    Year 2: $1m
    Year 3: $1m
    Year 4: $2m

    Total: $4.44m

    That's what the retention would cost in a vacuum. But overall Calgary would be saving money by moving Backlund's contract. Just in the last year of the deal there is $3.35m saved ($5.35m - $2m). There's also $835k in difference between Compher at $2.5m and Backlund at $3.35m, so that's another $1.67k saved in years 2+3. This is just back-of-a-cigarette packet maths but overall Calgary would be saving at least $5m in the next 3-4 years by doing this trade. And that's before considering the value they'd get from Timmins and a 1st round pick.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2021
  13. Richard88 Registered User

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    A player can be elite at a specific skill without necessarily being an elite hockey player overall.

    For example, a player could be elite on the PP (eg. Labanc) or elite at faceoffs (that's the main reason why Bellemare still has a job in the NHL). They could also have an elite shot but not be elite as a player overall (eg. Burakovsky).

    The claim @Tkachuk Norris made was that Backlunds "impact at 5 on 5 is elite". I'd recommend checking some advanced stats because you'll find that Backlund's Corsi is 2nd in the league among centers, behind only Mackinnon. So that statement is absolutely true.

    Obviously Corsi isn't the be-all-end-all, but it at least shows why Backlund has garnered Selke votes in the last 4 years.
     
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  14. Tkachuk Norris Registered User

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    5 on 5 Backlund is elite. And Gaudreau is absolutely elite. I’m not going to waste my time trying to convince an Oiler fan that.

    go ahead and be cocky like you guys do every year after we start slow... its a little late in the year but it seems like normalcy is returning to some degree.
     
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  15. majormajor Registered User

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    The Jackets need a guy like Backlund desperately. His contract could get ugly but with where the team is at, if you get him willing to waive for a move to Columbus, then you make the deal and take the chance.

    I'd expect the Jackets to try to outbid the offer that Avs fans were discussing: Compher (dump) + Timmins + 1st for $1m retained Backlund.

    What does Calgary want exactly?
     
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  16. Volica LGF LFG!

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    A guy that gets little to no appreciation, even within certain Flame circles, but is a key contributor and makes the team better.

    No trade you’ll get for the guy will equate his value to the team.
     
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  17. Johnny Hoxville The Return of a Legend

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    I don’t think Backlund will ever leave Calgary.
     
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  18. Richard88 Registered User

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    No offense, but why would Backlund waive to go to Columbus? They aren't anywhere near being a contender; look likely to miss the playoffs; the lockerroom atmosphere is tense because of the fallout of the Tortorella-Dubois episode; and their best player is an UFA in a year.

    Contrast that with a team that was the overwhelming pre-season favourite to win the cup and looks poised to be a contender for the next few years. It's quite an easy decision for him.
     
  19. majormajor Registered User

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    Thanks Dick88. :sarcasm:

    In all seriousness that is a good question, just unpleasant for me.

    My answer is that players are all different in what they are looking for. Some put going to a winner as point #1. Others strive to win in more challenging circumstances where they are heavily relied upon. Not every player wants to be a #3C (e.g. Danault). Mikael Backlund might look at the Blue Jackets and see a team with a lot of nice pieces, with the only big problem being a Backlund-sized hole at center. I would say the challenge in Columbus is greater than that even, but hopefully he has enough of an ego to think he can be a difference maker. :D He would also see that this is a team where he would get a great choice of wingers to work with. He's currently centering Dube and Lucic, and in Colorado he'd have guys like Nichushkin and Donskoi. In Columbus he'd have much better wingers and as many minutes as he could handle. And if he was thinking that way, maybe he'd be right, maybe they'd be a lot better with him on it? The Jackets were a good team not that long ago!
     
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  20. Broberg Speed Registered User

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    Backlund @ $5.35 this season, and for three additional years after this season, make him a luxury that all 30 trading partners will outright refuse.

    Any transaction for Backlund starts with a salary dump and/or major salary retention on behalf of the Flames.
     
  21. FLAMESFAN Registered User

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    I think Backlund would be a better fit as your 2nd line C
     
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  22. FLAMESFAN Registered User

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    So many posters have no idea when it comes to Backlund. He's been a very good player for us for a long time.
     
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  23. Richard88 Registered User

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    I agree. Kadri doesn't use his linemates well enough so he's probably better off freestyling on his own line as 3C.
     

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