Player Discussion Mike Reilly (D) acquired from the Montreal Canadiens

[Alf Silfversson]

Reilly is the weirdest player I've seen on this team in a long time, possibly ever.

He's wildly inconsistent and can look like a guy who would be a healthy scratch in the ECHL one night and then a few nights later actually play decent.

His bad play is laughably bad. I've never seen anyone pull a Three Stooges on an NHL ice surface like this guy.

However he sometimes makes good NHL caliber plays but they look weird. Choppy and odd but they work sometimes. It gives off this vibe of a guy who isn't NHL caliber even when he IS making NHL plays.

I think he should start sitting games unless he starts bringing some semblance of consistency. Not every play is going to work out but he routinely makes jaw dropping bad plays. I honestly don't know how he hasn't driven the coaches batshit crazy this year.

He's keeps ya watching though, I'll give him that.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

His bad play is laughably bad. I've never seen anyone pull a Three Stooges on an NHL ice surface like this guy.

 

[coladin]

He's just not good

He has basically the best Corsi and Fenwick on the team. I'm sure they are looking at that. Do those analytical tools trump the eye test?

Clearly, DJ has referenced advanced stats, so he does look at it, which many were happy that he did. But, maybe in this case, it would have been better to have no advanced stats! Eye test, he is average. When he fails, it is memorable which maybe skews a lot of the hate he gets. Same way Boro was ridiculed until his last year here, Also same reason that Karlsson doesn't have 4 Norris trophies. Guy was amazing, but he would make some memorable gaffes that a GM or exec around the league would point to the replay and say " see, he can't play defence"

 

[GCK]

That remains to be seen. He's 25 and has only played 22 games total in the past 2+ years. Extremely short sighted to just write him off at this point, especially when it costs you nothing to get a look at him.

He’s 26 this month. He’s been terrible each time he plays. He can’t defend, can’t exit his zone nor provide offence. I was really hoping he could get a spot but he should ask for a conditioning stint to find his game.

 

[GCK]

What is he doing well enough to mitigate a goal against a game that is directly his fault. Both games where they won would have been shutouts if it weren't for him. He caused 2 of the 6 goals against in the loss. I don't know what people are watching if they think he has played well.

Honestly question to anyone defending him. Did you watch the intermission when Johnson broke down the goal against?

And with Wolanin it would have probably been more goals against. Brannstromm isn’t ready for 20+ minutes but give him a few weeks and he will pass Reilly (I hope).

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Why no GDt? Habs in less than 6 hours.

 

[GCK]

Why no GDt? Habs in less than 6 hours.

The Habs don’t deserve the rispeck of an early GDT.

 

[branch]

He has basically the best Corsi and Fenwick on the team. I'm sure they are looking at that. Do those analytical tools trump the eye test?

Clearly, DJ has referenced advanced stats, so he does look at it, which many were happy that he did. But, maybe in this case, it would have been better to have no advanced stats! Eye test, he is average. When he fails, it is memorable which maybe skews a lot of the hate he gets. Same way Boro was ridiculed until his last year here, Also same reason that Karlsson doesn't have 4 Norris trophies. Guy was amazing, but he would make some memorable gaffes that a GM or exec around the league would point to the replay and say " see, he can't play defence"

I guess when people fail subtly, they can kind of sweep it under the rug. When you fail as bad as Reilly does then I guess it becomes hard to ignore. Moral of the story is to fail gracefully I suppose.

 

[coladin]

I guess when people fail subtly, they can kind of sweep it under the rug. When you fail as bad as Reilly does then I guess it becomes hard to ignore. Moral of the story is to fail gracefully I suppose.

I hope my post isn't interpreted as an endorsement of Reilly! He may be one of those guys that analytically he is decent but my God the eye test...

 

[bert]

And with Wolanin it would have probably been more goals against. Brannstromm isn’t ready for 20+ minutes but give him a few weeks and he will pass Reilly (I hope).

You don't know that. Going back to Reilly is beyond comprehension at this point. Right from the get go it's been different rules for different players. No wonder players are getting shipped out it's frustrating.

 

[scallionjj11]

Just wanted to chime in here. I have been lucky enough to watch every game this season. Saying that, Mike Reilly is horrible, no way around it.

 

[topshelf15]

Just wanted to chime in here. I have been lucky enough to watch every game this season. Saying that, Mike Reilly is horrible, no way around it.

Yeah,there just isnt any other real option other than him right now...Wolanin just isnt there and Couburn hasnt been anywhere for 3 seasons

 

[DrEasy]

I find him better when he plays within himself. Less adventurous, more just solid. Because he also has the tools to play the stay-at-home defenseman role. He doesn't look out of place on the PK.

If I were a coach I'd tell him to simplify his game. Sounds weird to say, but be less creative. Then gradually learn to pick your spots and unleash the crazy only when necessary.

In short, I'd "Ceci" Reilly.

Pairing him with Zub has to some extent allowed him to relax and not feel like he has to do everything by himself.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

He's a number #6 being asked to be a #4.

We need more defensive talent.

 

[topshelf15]

He's a number #6 being asked to be a #4.

We need more defensive talent.

I wasnt expecting us to draft a defender like Sanderson last season...But I kinda see why now

 

[IranCondraAffair]

I wasnt expecting us to draft a defender like Sanderson last season...But I kinda see why now

I'm actually a bit shocked we didn't go heavier with LHD.

I know the team wasn't high on Englund and Lajoie. We basically had Chabot and nothing else that could conceivably be considered a future top-4 guy. JBD and Thomson are righties. Brannstrom is a lefty but likes playing right. Reilly and Wolanin were basically glorified bottom pairing guys. Unless Brannstrom works out, we are well and truly screwed.

 

[Shruggs Peterson]

What should the Senators do with Mike Reilly: Trade before deadline or re-sign?

Doing a bump here because of Ian's article. The deployment stats show just how much DJ likes and trusts him...

"1. The case for a contract extension

The above table illustrates Reilly’s ability to have a positive impact on the game from a possession standpoint since joining the Senators midway through last season. Those high danger numbers, in particular, are interesting because they put Reilly in line with some other elite defencemen in the game. Over the past two seasons combined, here are the five-on-five high danger CF% for these four blueliners:

Cale Makar — 55.34%
Dougie Hamilton — 57.01%
Shea Theodore — 57.19%
Jeff Petry — 57.22%

That’s some impressive company. And yes, Reilly would have logged fewer games and minutes than those four players, but we’re talking about a 60-game, 1,000-minute sample size for Reilly in Ottawa. That’s almost a full season’s worth, so it’s not insignificant."

"There is also a train of thought that suggests Reilly is simply riding the coattails of Artem Zub, who has suddenly become a fan favourite in Ottawa. Zub’s insertion into the lineup coincided with some better defensive play from the Senators. Ottawa has been closer to a .500 team with Zub in the lineup (9-13-1 record) than they were without him (1-7-1 record).
And while Zub deserves a ton of credit for help stabilizing the back end, it’s a little disingenuous to suggest he’s carrying the defence pairing with Reilly by himself."

2.The case for a trade right now

"Picture what Ottawa’s starting lineup should be on opening night and you can envision a left side of the defence that features Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson and Erik Brannstrom. All three are highly touted by the organization and in a dream scenario, this is exactly what the opening night lineup will look like in October 2022.
So where does that leave Reilly?
Either he’s the seventh defenceman in Ottawa or he’s playing for another organization. If the Senators somehow convince Sanderson to leave college this summer, that timeline could be fast-tracked to as early as October 2021.

...An educated guess suggests Dorion could get a return that’s better than a fifth-round pick for Reilly at the deadline, especially since he’s a pending UFA with a very low cap hit of $1.5 million. Reilly could be a sought-after commodity and if Dorion can get something comparable to a third-round pick, he would be wise to strongly consider that option. It would be a great example of asset management in taking a fifth-round pick and improving it over the course of 15 months."

 

[BondraTime]

What should the Senators do with Mike Reilly: Trade before deadline or re-sign?

Doing a bump here because of Ian's article. The deployment stats show just how much DJ likes and trusts him...

"1. The case for a contract extension
View attachment 408874


The above table illustrates Reilly’s ability to have a positive impact on the game from a possession standpoint since joining the Senators midway through last season. Those high danger numbers, in particular, are interesting because they put Reilly in line with some other elite defencemen in the game. Over the past two seasons combined, here are the five-on-five high danger CF% for these four blueliners:

Cale Makar — 55.34%
Dougie Hamilton — 57.01%
Shea Theodore — 57.19%
Jeff Petry — 57.22%

That’s some impressive company. And yes, Reilly would have logged fewer games and minutes than those four players, but we’re talking about a 60-game, 1,000-minute sample size for Reilly in Ottawa. That’s almost a full season’s worth, so it’s not insignificant."

View attachment 408876

"There is also a train of thought that suggests Reilly is simply riding the coattails of Artem Zub, who has suddenly become a fan favourite in Ottawa. Zub’s insertion into the lineup coincided with some better defensive play from the Senators. Ottawa has been closer to a .500 team with Zub in the lineup (9-13-1 record) than they were without him (1-7-1 record).
And while Zub deserves a ton of credit for help stabilizing the back end, it’s a little disingenuous to suggest he’s carrying the defence pairing with Reilly by himself."

2.The case for a trade right now

"Picture what Ottawa’s starting lineup should be on opening night and you can envision a left side of the defence that features Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson and Erik Brannstrom. All three are highly touted by the organization and in a dream scenario, this is exactly what the opening night lineup will look like in October 2022.
So where does that leave Reilly?
Either he’s the seventh defenceman in Ottawa or he’s playing for another organization. If the Senators somehow convince Sanderson to leave college this summer, that timeline could be fast-tracked to as early as October 2021.

...An educated guess suggests Dorion could get a return that’s better than a fifth-round pick for Reilly at the deadline, especially since he’s a pending UFA with a very low cap hit of $1.5 million. Reilly could be a sought-after commodity and if Dorion can get something comparable to a third-round pick, he would be wise to strongly consider that option. It would be a great example of asset management in taking a fifth-round pick and improving it over the course of 15 months."

Hopefully this tricks some team into thinking he's a competent every day NHLer and they give us a 5th for him

 

[Sens in Process]

Mike "No love" Reilly just gets no credit, just look at his underlying 5 vs.5 numbers compared to the "elite" Quinn Hughes:

CF% xGF% Offzonestarts% Goals Assists Points +/-
Mike Reilly 54.49 55.73 37.61 0 11 11 -2
Quinn Hughes 48.93 46.75 70.88 2 8 10 -17

Hughes plays protected minutes with a disproportionate amount of offensive zone starts, and yet he ranks worse across the board in underlying numbers, despite being on a better team. Reilly does a lot of heavy lifting for the Sens in terms defensive zone responsibility, with only Zaitsev among the D having a worse zone start percentage. I don't think this all Zubs making either. As a pair, they have good chemistry and together form a sum greater than the parts.

Sens should commit to him on 2-3 . if he come in at 3 to 4 million, he is an absolute bargain.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Reilly has been much better the last couple of weeks. Credit where credit is due. But I don't think he has any future with this team.

I think if we can get something for him soonish then that's a success.

 

[jbeck5]

I've changed my tune on this guy slowly over the course of the season. Same with wolanin but in the opposite direction.

I'd be ok with bringing back Rielly and I'm ok with wolanin getting waived.

I think of him as a stop gap until guys like jbd and Sanderson are ready to make the jump.

 

[Cosmix]

He has basically the best Corsi and Fenwick on the team. I'm sure they are looking at that. Do those analytical tools trump the eye test?

Clearly, DJ has referenced advanced stats, so he does look at it, which many were happy that he did. But, maybe in this case, it would have been better to have no advanced stats! Eye test, he is average. When he fails, it is memorable which maybe skews a lot of the hate he gets. Same way Boro was ridiculed until his last year here, Also same reason that Karlsson doesn't have 4 Norris trophies. Guy was amazing, but he would make some memorable gaffes that a GM or exec around the league would point to the replay and say " see, he can't play defence"

karlsson clearly deserved to get a third Norris; however, the press boys conspired against him.

 

[WORLDSTARHIPHOP]

glad he found a dealer

 

[armani]

Earlier I compared Mike Reilly to a Joe Corvo lite. Diss. Reilly is a better defensive player.

While he will still be guilty of occasional brain farts, Reilly has looked good in the last 4-5 weeks. He is playing more in his zone and looks to have settled down in his role. No doubt the play of No Lube Zub has rubbed off on him. They show the best chemistry of any of our pairings.

 

[Bileur]

Sell high. This guy isn’t a top 4 defenseman on a contending team. Paying him like one would be a huge mistake.