McDavid with the best impact on xGF% of the Analytics Era

[DrDangles]

This year mcdavid‘s most common line mates are Puljujarvi and Hyman. Both are having the best year of their careers

Puljujarvi is 23 and still developing into a top 6 player, so production increases should be expected. That being said his PPG is only up .09 over last season and is scoring goals at a lower rate.

Hyman's last two seasons in Toronto - 94 GP, .74 PPG, and .38 GPG
Hyman's season thus far in Eddy - 70 GP, .71 PPG, and .34 GPG

 

[Rodgerwilco]

How am I supposed to take a tweet seriously when it opens with, "I know there's several good candidates for the Hart this year, but the lack of talk about McDavid is surprising".

f***ing what. Lack of talk? In literally every discussion on the topic of the Hart, everyone and I mean everyone has McDavid at minimum a candidate at the very least. Twitter really is the dumbest place on the internet, makes HF look knowledgeable.

People always try desperately to make the loudest point with the most sensational take on Twitter. It's really comical and infuriating at the same time lol.

 

[Rengorlex]

Yeah he's been pretty unlucky, but I don't think Hart trophy can be given by expected results. If your teammates aren't finishing then to be as valuable you gotta score the goals yourself and assume a more selfish role.

McDavid's 5vs5 offensive volume has obviously been crazy and projects well for the future, but I don't think this is a good case to give him the Hart trophy. He may win it anyways.

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

Puljujarvi is 23 and still developing into a top 6 player, so production increases should be expected. That being said his PPG is only up .09 over last season and is scoring goals at a lower rate.

Hyman's last two seasons in Toronto - 94 GP, .74 PPG, and .38 GPG
Hyman's season thus far in Eddy - 70 GP, .71 PPG, and .34 GPG

oh come on, do you actually think mcdavid doesnt elevate his teammates? Ok lets dig into it. Lets throw in Kane too, since he’s a common line mate of mcdavid. All 5on5

puljujarvi W and (W/O) Mcdavid
FF%: 58.8 (55.3)
CF%: 59.5 (56.6)
GF%: 68.1 (56.7)
xGF% 61.5 (56.2)
on ice goals/60: 3.3 (3.3)

Hyman W and (W/O) Mcdavid
FF%: 55.6 (48.2)
CF%: 56.7 (49.8)
GF%: 58.5 (39.6)
xGF% 59.4 (49.21)
on ice goals/60: 2.93 (2.76)

Kane W and (W/O) Mcdavid
FF%: 56.3 (42.4)
CF%: 55.6 (45.1)
GF%: 61.8 (63.64)
xGF% 55.64 (41.9)
on ice goals/60: 3.6 (1.8)

good try though!

 

[daver]

Can someone explain this:

From 16/17 to last season, McDavid is the leader in SAT for and SAT against. This shouldn't be a big surprise to anyone.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

This season he leads in SAT for by a clear margin but his SAT against is significantly down from his career average. This should be viewed as a positive and perhaps explains why his on-ice shooting % is down. Maybe his line is more defensively sound but isn't getting the prime offensive opportunities it did in the past (the shots are of lesser quality).

 

[Brobust]

Yeah, he's a great player on a shit team.

 

[thaman8765678]

I agree that Gaudreau and Huberdeau are amazing this season and I wouldn't mind either one of them winning the Hart, but I cannot find the 500 more minutes that @thaman8765678 is talking about.

At least according to NHL.com (they may of course be wrong) Gaudreau has played 1419:18 minutes in all situations, while McDavid is listed with 1663:59 minutes. I have trouble finding any math that turns this into a difference of 500 minutes.
If there is something I overlooked I don't mind being corrected, but to me the claim of 500 more minutes seems like an unnecessary exaggeration.

I like McDavid and hope he wins the Smythe trophy and the Stanley Cup this season (I doubt it, but I hope) and he is and should always be in the conversation for the Hart, but this year I would have no problem with either of Huberdeau, Shesterkin, Gaudreau, Matthews or Josi winning the Hart. Each on of them has a good case to make.

On a side note, because it is always being brought up when people try to diminish McDavid's and Draisaitl's point totals:
People need to stop pretending that there is a linear increase of point totals as a players' ice time increases. Some players handle more minutes better than others, especially over the course of an entire season.

In the end most people here will always cherry pick the stats/advanced stats that suit their favoured narrative.

250 more minutes is a huge discrepancy. Gaudreau would have closer to 125 points if he got the McDavid extra 5 minutes a game of ice time.

 

[daver]

250 more minutes is a huge discrepancy. Gaudreau would have closer to 125 points if he got the McDavid extra 5 minutes a game of ice time.

This is [mod edit: flawed logic].

 

[thaman8765678]

This is [mod edit: flawed logic].

How? He has literally played an extra entire 3 full games of hockey almost.

 

[daver]

How? He has literally played an extra entire 3 full games of hockey almost.

I wonder why that is? Think about it. Not all minutes are the same.

 

[thaman8765678]

I wonder why that is? Think about it. Not all minutes are the same.

Because the Oilers have no depth and don't care if their star forwards just try to score and not backcheck hard?

 

[Snipes45]

Yeah, he's a great player on a shit team.

That *shit* team is the best in the NHl for the last 2+ months after their coaching change lol. That is with some inconsistent goaltending.

 

[daver]

Because the Oilers have no depth and don't care if their star forwards just try to score and not backcheck hard?

Hmmmm....nope.

 

[thaman8765678]

That *shit* team is the best in the NHl for the last 2+ months after their coaching change lol. That is with some inconsistent goaltending. Start talking if you get out of the first round this year for the first time since 2004.

Nice try but the Flames actually have more points in that span. Nice little run though.

 

[Snipes45]

Nice try but the Flames actually have more points in that span. Nice little run though.

How many more do they have Since Woody got hired as well?

I am fine where EDM is at right now after their sh** stretch, inconsistent goaltending, bad coaching, and injury riddled year playing up to 4 rookie dmen a game. Too bad Kane couldn't have been here all year.

Just 3 whole wins less than the Juggernaut Flames who have had Vezina like tending, zero injuries, and multiple career years, etc.

 

[Norwegianoiler]

It's a question of now or never for certain players that are in the Hart discussion, and I think voting will reflect that - if Huberdeau and Josi (for example) don't win this year, they probably never will. So, instead of going McDavid once again, voters will tell themselves that it's boring if McDavid wins again, or he's going to win more later. The same seems to happen to Bergeron for the Selke sometimes. That isn't necessarily to say that either Huberdeau or Josi isn't deserving, they've been awesome for their teams, but I strongly suspect there's some bias towards players that have an extraordinary year relative to their careers. Perhaps someone has done more research on that than me, so as to kill my suspicion.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

That *shit* team is the best in the NHl for the last 2+ months after their coaching change lol. That is with some inconsistent goaltending. Start talking if you get out of the first round this year for the first time since 2004.

They're certainly the best at beating up on their trash division. Except the Flames, the only good team in it.

 

[Paul4587]

250 more minutes is a huge discrepancy. Gaudreau would have closer to 125 points if he got the McDavid extra 5 minutes a game of ice time.

You know fatigue is a thing right? You can’t just adamantly say more minutes = more points. When you’re at that 20 min a game night as a forward more minutes usually leads to sloppiness, fatigue and more chance of injury.

 

[Super Hans]

 

[Juicy Pop]

I disagree. You can see it frequently with players that have an outlier year in terms of shooting percentage.

Lance Bouma is probably the poster boy for this. Career shooting % of 7.9%, one season he pops off 16 goals shooting at 15.38%. Never scored more than 5 in any other season.

The very nature of hockey played with a disc means that random bounces are part of the game.

We can't quantify what was luck and what was skill down to the finest detail, but its obvious in some instances that random chance is playing a big part.

It's a game still bound in physics so everything can eventually be described with enough tech and modeling.

My point is not that "luck" isn't a factor. It's that we don't know enough about what's in that bucket to clearly say if it's through intent, as in changing a playstyle, or is merely circumstantial, through teammates or sheer variance, etc.

 

[Bank Shot]

It's a game still bound in physics so everything can eventually be described with enough tech and modeling.

My point is not that "luck" isn't a factor. It's that we don't know enough about what's in that bucket to clearly say if it's through intent, as in changing a playstyle, or is merely circumstantial, through teammates or sheer variance, etc.

Yeah its bound by physics, but when a guy tips a puck he can't model which direction its going to go after the tip.

A puck hits a shinpad. Sometimes it goes to the corner. Sometimes it goes top shelf. Hockey has a lot of luck involved. Its just a fact.