McDavid with the best impact on xGF% of the Analytics Era

[Sol]

McDavid is easily the best player In the league and it’s not close. Not a surprise

 

[Regal]

Hate how much the term 'luck' is being tossed around these days. Cant see how its a measurable stat

Then change it to variance. Sustainability might not be completely measurable, but we can get a good idea of it’s impact on smaller samples from larger ones.

 

[The90]

If people want to use actual results rather than expected results, why do people ignore the fact that McDavid has been on for far less goals against than an elite defensive forward like Matthews?

I get Matthews has had unlucky goaltending at ES, but the argument goes both ways.

The xGA is the flip side of your argument. Indeed it does go both ways

 

[Juicy Pop]

Luck is just the catch-all bucket for events that can't be thoroughly described.

It's not the basis for an argument.

 

[1989]

Is that what we're calling it? The Analytics Era? Don't love it.

Not to mention the penchant for shorthand... Original 6 Era is O6... Dead Puck Era is DPE... what's the Analytic Era

 

[Some Other Flame]

You don't win friends awards with salad bad luck

 

[BKarchitect]

I mean he’s easily the best player in the league. Doesn’t mean he should win the Hart but people love to conflate ranking players with ranking an individual season. If he doesn’t win the Hart - he’s still the best player. Likewise, somebody else winning the Hart in no way proves they are suddenly better than McDavid.

 

[authentic]

Using raw goals against is such a terrible metric for evaluating player impact defensively. I’m not saying that you’re suggesting otherwise but Matthew’s expected goals for/against metrics are near the very top of the league and he’s also 2nd in ppg in the league, 0.01ppg behind McDavid.

Exactly this. It’s way less dependant on his play than an offensive players on ice shooting %. Sure McDavid has been unlucky but he also has 10 empty net points to make up for it and plays more on the powerplay than most players.

 

[authentic]

Playing less minutes(aka being relied on less by his team) seems like the opposite of an argument for a player when we're talking about the Hart.

Or it sounds like the team has depth and different coaching strategies.

 

[The National]

Send him a trophy.

 

[Panthaz89]

This is like saying water is wet for me I know McDavid is the most dangerous offensive player in the league all you got to do is watch him.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I mean, it's the best according to the two people who decided what this particular xGF model will be. Different people have different models with different results.

McDavid is definitely having an under the radar elite year though.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Oh so now we believe in EvolvingWild and analytics. Good to know, these charts get mocked by ~90% of Oilers fans in every McDrai/Matthews thread.



Analytics are cool when they make McDavid look good, unfortunately they don't seem to get the same credibility when its about Matthews or Drai for some reason.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Not suprising watching him play

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

500 more minutes played than Gaudreau this year and 2 more total points...

That's insane lol not to mention JH is crushing him in ev points

 

[authentic]

Oh so now we believe in EvolvingWild and analytics. Good to know, these charts get mocked by ~90% of Oilers fans in every McDrai/Matthews thread.



Analytics are cool when they make McDavid look good, unfortunately they don't seem to get the same credibility when its about Matthews or Drai for some reason.

That’s the way she goes on hf

 

[Maverick41]

That's insane lol not to mention JH is crushing him in ev points

I agree that Gaudreau and Huberdeau are amazing this season and I wouldn't mind either one of them winning the Hart, but I cannot find the 500 more minutes that @thaman8765678 is talking about.

At least according to NHL.com (they may of course be wrong) Gaudreau has played 1419:18 minutes in all situations, while McDavid is listed with 1663:59 minutes. I have trouble finding any math that turns this into a difference of 500 minutes.
If there is something I overlooked I don't mind being corrected, but to me the claim of 500 more minutes seems like an unnecessary exaggeration.

I like McDavid and hope he wins the Smythe trophy and the Stanley Cup this season (I doubt it, but I hope) and he is and should always be in the conversation for the Hart, but this year I would have no problem with either of Huberdeau, Shesterkin, Gaudreau, Matthews or Josi winning the Hart. Each on of them has a good case to make.

On a side note, because it is always being brought up when people try to diminish McDavid's and Draisaitl's point totals:
People need to stop pretending that there is a linear increase of point totals as a players' ice time increases. Some players handle more minutes better than others, especially over the course of an entire season.

In the end most people here will always cherry pick the stats/advanced stats that suit their favoured narrative.

 

[Bank Shot]

Luck is just the catch-all bucket for events that can't be thoroughly described.

It's not the basis for an argument.

I disagree. You can see it frequently with players that have an outlier year in terms of shooting percentage.

Lance Bouma is probably the poster boy for this. Career shooting % of 7.9%, one season he pops off 16 goals shooting at 15.38%. Never scored more than 5 in any other season.

The very nature of hockey played with a disc means that random bounces are part of the game.

We can't quantify what was luck and what was skill down to the finest detail, but its obvious in some instances that random chance is playing a big part.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

I agree that Gaudreau and Huberdeau are amazing this season and I wouldn't mind either one of them winning the Hart, but I cannot find the 500 more minutes that @thaman8765678 is talking about.

At least according to NHL.com (they may of course be wrong) Gaudreau has played 1419:18 minutes in all situations, while McDavid is listed with 1663:59 minutes. I have trouble finding any math that turns this into a difference of 500 minutes.
If there is something I overlooked I don't mind being corrected, but to me the claim of 500 more minutes seems like an unnecessary exaggeration.

I like McDavid and hope he wins the Smythe trophy and the Stanley Cup this season (I doubt it, but I hope) and he is and should always be in the conversation for the Hart, but this year I would have no problem with either of Huberdeau, Shesterkin, Gaudreau, Matthews or Josi winning the Hart. Each on of them has a good case to make.

On a side note, because it is always being brought up when people try to diminish McDavid's and Draisaitl's point totals:
People need to stop pretending that there is a linear increase of point totals as a players' ice time increases. Some players handle more minutes better than others, especially over the course of an entire season.

In the end most people here will always cherry pick the stats/advanced stats that suit their favoured narrative.

Yes with more ice time there is more fatigue etc. But if the 500 min stat I'd true then 2 extra points Is very telling and shows the difference at least this season. Now whether that stat is true or not idk as u have said you haven't been able to find those minutes

 

[J bo Jeans]

I read a stat on here something along the lines that if Mcdavid's linemates had career average shooting percentages he would have 18-20 more points.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

You don't win friends awards with salad bad luck

Hey Moe, that team sure did suck last night. They just plain sucked! I've seen teams suck before, but they were the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked.

 

[DrDangles]

I read a stat on here something along the lines that if Mcdavid's linemates had career average shooting percentages he would have 18-20 more points.

Maybe their shooting percentages are lower because they're trying to adjust to his game, rather than him playing to their strengths.

I do find it very surprising that playing with McDavid doesn't seem to inflate other's stat line outside of Drai. Maybe there's something to be said about the skill level needed to keep up with him, but realistically it's going to be difficult cap-wise to keep another superstar glued to his wing and have the depth to contend.

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

If people want to use actual results rather than expected results, why do people ignore the fact that McDavid has been on for far less goals against than an elite defensive forward like Matthews?

I get Matthews has had unlucky goaltending at ES, but the argument goes both ways.

Not if you work for the athletic

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Maybe their shooting percentages are lower because they're trying to adjust to his game, rather than him playing to their strengths.

I do find it very surprising that playing with McDavid doesn't seem to inflate other's stat line outside of Drai. Maybe there's something to be said about the skill level needed to keep up with him, but realistically it's going to be difficult cap-wise to keep another superstar glued to his wing and have the depth to contend.

Does the name Zack Kassian ring a bell?

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

Maybe their shooting percentages are lower because they're trying to adjust to his game, rather than him playing to their strengths.

I do find it very surprising that playing with McDavid doesn't seem to inflate other's stat line outside of Drai. Maybe there's something to be said about the skill level needed to keep up with him, but realistically it's going to be difficult cap-wise to keep another superstar glued to his wing and have the depth to contend.

This year mcdavid‘s most common line mates are Puljujarvi and Hyman. Both are having the best year of their careers