McDavid with the best impact on xGF% of the Analytics Era

[Llamamoto]

I know we have enough threads about Hart candidates already, but I couldn't help myself with this one.

It's crazy that some people are discluding McDavid from their Hart discussions. He's leading the league in points with a career low shooting percentage, and his impact in terms of xGF is the highest in history. (A RAPM xGF/60 of 0.646, second highest in the analytics era is McDavid's 2017-18 season)

That people are calling this a disappointing season from him just goes to show how this level of dominance has become the norm for him.

Click to read more...

 

[FlaPanthers11]

Of all time here means the analytics era which is like 10-15 years. Impressive but the tweet doesn’t need to exaggerate

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

Of all time here means the analytics era which is like 10-15 years. Impressive but the tweet doesn’t need to exaggerate

So Gretzky's still the best right?

 

[Llamamoto]

Of all time here means the analytics era which is like 10-15 years. Impressive but the tweet doesn’t need to exaggerate

Yeah that's a good point, I changed the title to reflect that.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

*Since 2008 since this stuff has been tracked. Still impressive nonetheless.

 

[1989]

I understand he's been unluckier than usual but at the end of the day it's about as useful for determining MVPs and the like as "point pace" arguments.

Just get it done... whether that's scoring 60 goals or 150 points or whatever the metric is.

Sucks for him but they ask "how many" and not "how". Maybe he'll have a true "breakout year" next year which would be amazing.

 

[Llamamoto]

I understand he's been unluckier than usual but at the end of the day it's about as useful for determining MVPs and the like as "point pace" arguments.

Just get it done... whether that's scoring 60 goals or 150 points or whatever the metric is.

Sucks for him but they ask "how many" and not "how". Maybe he'll have a true "breakout year" next year which would be amazing.

If people want to use actual results rather than expected results, why do people ignore the fact that McDavid has been on for far less goals against than an elite defensive forward like Matthews?

I get Matthews has had unlucky goaltending at ES, but the argument goes both ways.

 

[1989]

If people want to use actual results rather than expected results, why do people ignore the fact that McDavid has been on for far less goals against than an elite defensive forward like Matthews?

I get Matthews has had unlucky goaltending at ES, but the argument goes both ways.

Hell if I know, I don't follow what Matthews does either but I do know that I'm much more ready to acknowledge Matthews as a 50 or 60 goal scorer once he hits the mark and not the pace.

Professional athletes and their fans dream about 'what-ifs', but the 'what-is' is the only thing that matters, IMO.

BTW: it's far fewer not less; just a pet peeve.

 

[thaman8765678]

500 more minutes played than Gaudreau this year and 2 more total points...

 

[PuckG]

500 more minutes played than Gaudreau this year and 2 more total points...

Congrats to Johny boy on his new career high. It'll be interesting to see if he ever reaches such heights again. Hell, who even knows if it'll be with the Flames?

Now do the same comparison over the last 5 years.

 

[NarcoPolo]

If people want to use actual results rather than expected results, why do people ignore the fact that McDavid has been on for far less goals against than an elite defensive forward like Matthews?

I get Matthews has had unlucky goaltending at ES, but the argument goes both ways.

Using raw goals against is such a terrible metric for evaluating player impact defensively. I’m not saying that you’re suggesting otherwise but Matthew’s expected goals for/against metrics are near the very top of the league and he’s also 2nd in ppg in the league, 0.01ppg behind McDavid.

 

[zar]

500 more minutes played than Gaudreau this year and 2 more total points...

It's actually only 34 more minutes more.

 

[Breakers]

Not shocking
McDavid was tops in the league like 4 years ago at HD scoring chance generation and he has continued that trend. He gets to the front of net inside the hashes A TON

 

[PuckG]

Using raw goals against is such a terrible metric for evaluating player impact defensively. I’m not saying that you’re suggesting otherwise but Matthew’s expected goals for/against metrics are near the very top of the league and he’s also 2nd in ppg in the league, 0.01ppg behind McDavid.

Why is raw goals against a worse metric than expected goals for or against? Genuinely curious about your rationale.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

500 more minutes played than Gaudreau this year and 2 more total points...

That will happen when one player plays with Lindholm and Tkachuk at even strength while the other plays with Hyman and Puljaarvi. Which you conveniently ignored.

 

[NarcoPolo]

Why is raw goals against a worse metric than expected goals for or against? Genuinely curious about your rationale.

In short, a single player cannot influence whether a shot against becomes a goal against. If the leafs had a Zamboni driver in net for an entire season, chances are that the raw goals against are going to be very high just as a function of having a terrible goalie.

When you look at expected goals against though, things like quality of scoring chances, high danger shots against, and quantity of shots against are all taken into account. We also have lots of data that tell us the different percentages of shots that become goals based on where the shots are taken on the ice, hence expected goals for/against. You can also isolate these sorts of stats relative to players teammates to understand if the have a net positive or negative impact to their respective teams when they’re on/off the ice.

 

[Peltz]

He sucks.

(I wish we had him)

 

[Kimota]

At least you have that.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

So thankful for this.

Never would have imagined a mediocre player like McDavid would be this high.

Blessed

 

[McDNicks17]

500 more minutes played than Gaudreau this year and 2 more total points...

Playing less minutes(aka being relied on less by his team) seems like the opposite of an argument for a player when we're talking about the Hart.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Is that what we're calling it? The Analytics Era? Don't love it.

 

[HabsQC]

Hart goes to Shesterkin IMO

 

[DropIt]

Hate how much the term 'luck' is being tossed around these days. Cant see how its a measurable stat

 

[JPeeper]

How am I supposed to take a tweet seriously when it opens with, "I know there's several good candidates for the Hart this year, but the lack of talk about McDavid is surprising".

f***ing what. Lack of talk? In literally every discussion on the topic of the Hart, everyone and I mean everyone has McDavid at minimum a candidate at the very least. Twitter really is the dumbest place on the internet, makes HF look knowledgeable.

 

[Regal]

If people want to use actual results rather than expected results, why do people ignore the fact that McDavid has been on for far less goals against than an elite defensive forward like Matthews?

I get Matthews has had unlucky goaltending at ES, but the argument goes both ways.

There’s some truth to this, but in general a forward’s impact on save percentage is much smaller than his impact on on-ice shooting percentage. McDavid being unlucky should be taken into account to some degree, but less so than Matthews.