Confirmed with Link: McDavid signs 8-year, $100M extension ($12.5M AAV)

[Mr Sakich]

I think Oilers two summers from now ...

Caggiula (2.5) McDavid (12.5) Puljujarvi (6)
Lucic (6) Draisaitl (8) Yamamoto (0.9)
Slepyshev (1.5) RNH (6) Kassian (1.9)
Khaira (0.625) blank (1) blank (0.9)
blank (0.8)

Klefbom (4.1) Larsson (4.1)
Nurse (4) Benning (3)
Russell (4) Jones (0.9)
blank (0.9)

Talbot (7)
Back-Up (1)

Pouliot Buyout (1.3) argh

= $78 million against a probable $80 million cap roof.

I think the plan is to have Nurse and Benning as our 2nd pairing after the 2018/9 season. This means that both Sekera and Russel are gone. Both have nmc clauses which become limited ntc so they can be moved without thier permission. Both are needed now as they allow us to properly develop the young dmen. That role will be over in 2 years

This allows us to keep rnh

 

[ujju2]

I think the plan is to have Nurse and Benning as our 2nd pairing after the 2018/9 season. This means that both Sekera and Russel are gone. Both have nmc clauses which become limited ntc so they can be moved without thier permission. Both are needed now as they allow us to properly develop the young dmen. That role will be over in 2 years

This allows us to keep rnh

I'm completely on board with this.

 

[Aceboogie]

To replace Sekera in a couple of years, that's where you hope that Bear or Jones are able to make the transition to jump to the big club. With both in the AHL this season, they should have a couple of years worth of seasoning in the minors when it's time to ship off Sekera.

Nurse will be the one to replace Sekera. For me the development path will be

17/18- Sekera at 2 LD, Nurse at 3LD but having them play similar duties and minutes.
18/19- Nurse takes over for Sekera at 2LD, Sekera is still a vet help and plays important role. Jones/Paigin get NHL time for injury call ups, maybe 15-20 games
19/20- Nurse has solidified 2nd pairing LD and him, Klefbom, Benning and Larsson anchor top 4. Sekera is traded and Jones comes in as full time bottom pairing D
20/21- Russell is still floating around because we signed him for 4 years for some reason

 

[Faelko]

Nurse will be the one to replace Sekera. For me the development path will be

17/18- Sekera at 2 LD, Nurse at 3LD but having them play similar duties and minutes.
18/19- Nurse takes over for Sekera at 2LD, Sekera is still a vet help and plays important role. Jones/Paigin get NHL time for injury call ups, maybe 15-20 games
19/20- Nurse has solidified 2nd pairing LD and him, Klefbom, Benning and Larsson anchor top 4. Sekera is traded and Jones comes in as full time bottom pairing D
20/21- Russell is still floating around because we signed him for 4 years for some reason

Other than his price tag, I don't see a problem with Russell mentoring Jones on the 3rd pair

 

[Weitz]

Nurse will be the one to replace Sekera. For me the development path will be

17/18- Sekera at 2 LD, Nurse at 3LD but having them play similar duties and minutes.
18/19- Nurse takes over for Sekera at 2LD, Sekera is still a vet help and plays important role. Jones/Paigin get NHL time for injury call ups, maybe 15-20 games
19/20- Nurse has solidified 2nd pairing LD and him, Klefbom, Benning and Larsson anchor top 4. Sekera is traded and Jones comes in as full time bottom pairing D
20/21- Russell is still floating around because we signed him for 4 years for some reason

While hopeful, I am not so sure. I don't know if Nurse has the talent to become a solid 2nd pairing D. I don't see it. I would love to be wrong though.

 

[Aceboogie]

Other than his price tag, I don't see a problem with Russell mentoring Jones on the 3rd pair

Price tag is a big concern. Well be right up against the cap and a bottom pairing D should be getting 2 mil or at max 3 mil if they are really, really good. I dont see the benefit of paying an extra 2 mil per year to have an off handed player "tutor" Jones when it could be done with another vet or with any of Klefbom/Larsson (who would be 26 then) or Sekera could next year. Also a solid chance Benning passes Russell next year and then one of Bear/Paigin/Mantha overtake Russell in 2 years. Ill never get that contract but Im not the GM or coach so ill trust they know what they are doing

While hopeful, I am not so sure. I don't know if Nurse has the talent to become a solid 2nd pairing D. I don't see it. I would love to be wrong though.

hes already trending up that way and was doing so pre injury. Still a little bit to go but at the tools and play to do it.

 

[Laineux]

https://www.nhl.com/news/connor-mcdavids-100-million-could-lead-to-1000-points/c-290306756

Here is statistical projection of Connor McDavid's scoring throughout the duration of his new contract, based on the actual, era-adjusted scoring on his closest historical peers:

 

[iCanada]

Awesome article.

 

[Spawn]

https://www.nhl.com/news/connor-mcdavids-100-million-could-lead-to-1000-points/c-290306756

Here is statistical projection of Connor McDavid's scoring throughout the duration of his new contract, based on the actual, era-adjusted scoring on his closest historical peers:

Cool chart. 8 straight years of 100+ points seems like a bit of a reach, but sure would be awesome.

 

[Laineux]

Cool chart. 8 straight years of 100+ points seems like a bit of a reach, but sure would be awesome.

That'd quite possibly be eight straigth Art Rosses too. Would put him closer to Gretzky than Crosby. He could do it, but yeah, that's an optimistic estimate.

 

[Jeff Lebowski]

Cool chart. 8 straight years of 100+ points seems like a bit of a reach, but sure would be awesome.

I don't think think it's much of a reach. He got 100 while still in a boys body. Imagine once he has man strength. He's only gonna get more powerful and faster.

 

[bone]

That'd quite possibly be eight straigth Art Rosses too. Would put him closer to Gretzky than Crosby. He could do it, but yeah, that's an optimistic estimate.

The biggest thing there is that is spreads out the missed games over multiple years, where it's more likely if he misses games that it will occur in a larger amount in a single season. So you're right that it isn't likley to stay at 100+ every season. But if you looked at PPG of the greats, their per game rates are pretty consistently high in years 5-10. So if he stays healthy, no reason to think he can't pull it off.

Note: There's also likely some kind of lockout somewhere in there as well.

 

[Evilsports]

I wonder if Connor gets a discount card to use at Rexall pharmacies? If so, color me green with envy!

 

[McDrai]

I wonder if Connor gets a discount card to use at Rexall pharmacies? If so, color me green with envy!

I'm pretty sure McDavid out of all people doesn't need a discount

 

[MoneyGuy]

Christ, he's just so well spoken.

He handled every question like an absolute pro, and even navigated the landmines about taking less money perfectly.

McDavid? He looks terrified in front of a mic.

 

[DethOfDragnz]

The price is high but everyone knew it would be for McDavid I am just glad it's under 13m. 9 years of McDavid give the Oilers a excellent shot at a Stanley Cup(s). Get ready people I feel it won't be long until the Oilers are great and the envy of the hockey world.

 

[Hockeyholic]

Sekera kinda has to go either way.

Having your second pairing (Russell/re-signed Nurse + Sekera) make more than the your top pairing kinda negates the savings you get from your top pairing.

I think Oilers two summers from now ...

Caggiula (2.5) McDavid (12.5) Puljujarvi (6)
Lucic (6) Draisaitl (8) Yamamoto (0.9)
Slepyshev (1.5) RNH (6) Kassian (1.9)
Khaira (0.625) blank (1) blank (0.9)
blank (0.8)

Klefbom (4.1) Larsson (4.1)
Nurse (4) Benning (3)
Russell (4) Jones (0.9)
blank (0.9)

Talbot (7)
Back-Up (1)

Pouliot Buyout (1.3) argh

= $78 million against a probable $80 million cap roof.

No chance RNH is on this team in two seasons. I fully expect next year to be the swang song.

 

[Hemsky is a gangsta]

Was just messing around on capfriendly and realized we have way more cap space than I even thought....even in the absolute worst case scenario of Fayne on the roster, Sekera's full hit counting, and Draisaitl getting a $10 million offer sheet we have like $8.5 million in space...

I know Stauffer was hinting at using that "throughout the year" but damn son..I'd give Andrei Markov a Joe Thornton contract

This should have gone in the other thread, whoops

 

[BOUNCE]

Was just messing around on capfriendly and realized we have way more cap space than I even thought....even in the absolute worst case scenario of Fayne on the roster, Sekera's full hit counting, and Draisaitl getting a $10 million offer sheet we have like $8.5 million in space...

I know Stauffer was hinting at using that "throughout the year" but damn son..I'd give Andrei Markov a Joe Thornton contract

This should have gone in the other thread, whoops

We need that space for a potential bonus players will make on there entry level deal like Puljujarvi and Mcdavid

 

[Aerchon]

Was just messing around on capfriendly and realized we have way more cap space than I even thought....even in the absolute worst case scenario of Fayne on the roster, Sekera's full hit counting, and Draisaitl getting a $10 million offer sheet we have like $8.5 million in space...

I know Stauffer was hinting at using that "throughout the year" but damn son..I'd give Andrei Markov a Joe Thornton contract

This should have gone in the other thread, whoops

You forgot about ELC bonuses.

Those come to approximately 7.5.

My math brought us to 2.5mill under the cap this year minus max ELC bonuses (which McD will hit his) and Leon signed at 8. If Leon signs for 10 we only have 0.5mill for one more roster spot.

Once Sekera's LTIR cap relief kicks in, and we can safely assume not everyone will be hitting their max bonuses we will be able to add someone at the deadline. But Leon at 10 means we sign no one and are right up against the cap.

 

[bone]

We need that space for a potential bonus players will make on there entry level deal like Puljujarvi and Mcdavid

Exactly there are 7.525 in potential bonus money which they don't want to carryover into 18/19. This puts us closer to just a million dollars if Leon got something crazy like 10M. Here are the bonus':

2.85 for Connor - guaranteed to cash
800K on Slepy - quite possible if he gets onto Leon or Connor's wing
425K on Caggs - again possible if he gets onto one of those wings
2.5 for PoolParty - doubtful, but you don't want to rule it out too soon
300K for Benning - You'd have to think he's going to get a lot more minutes without Seks, so good chance of hitting this one
$850 for Nurse - Added opportunity may allow him to cash some of his as well.

Though it's fair to gamble that not all will cash, there is a real possibility of a bunch of them cashing. Therefore, I can't see much being done until Leon is solidified. Then they may spend to the cap (including bonus') and determine how much they can pick up at the deadline based on which bonus' won't be earned. Say Pool Party goes to the AHL again, that would give over $8M in found cap money for a deadline acquisition.

 

[bone]

You forgot about ELC bonuses.

Those come to approximately 7.5.

My math brought us to 2.5mill under the cap this year minus max ELC bonuses (which McD will hit his) and Leon signed at 8. If Leon signs for 10 we only have 0.5mill for one more roster spot.

Once Sekera's LTIR cap relief kicks in, and we can safely assume not everyone will be hitting their max bonuses we will be able to add someone at the deadline. But Leon at 10 means we sign no one and are right up against the cap.

I'm pretty sure we can't use LTIR relief to pay bonus' and it doesn't activate until you get over the cap (excluding bonus'). Therefore the only way to access LTIR is to take bonus overage penalties on all bonus' next year, which I can't see them doing.


For example, look at Toronto last year (https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs/cap_tracker/2017). Despite over $10M on LTIR, they were only really able to get $63 K in LTIR relief and incurred over $5M in bonus overages.

 

[Raab]

Exactly there are 7.525 in potential bonus money which they don't want to carryover into 18/19. This puts us closer to just a million dollars if Leon got something crazy like 10M. Here are the bonus':

2.85 for Connor - guaranteed to cash
800K on Slepy - quite possible if he gets onto Leon or Connor's wing
425K on Caggs - again possible if he gets onto one of those wings
2.5 for PoolParty - doubtful, but you don't want to rule it out too soon
300K for Benning - You'd have to think he's going to get a lot more minutes without Seks, so good chance of hitting this one
$850 for Nurse - Added opportunity may allow him to cash some of his as well.

Though it's fair to gamble that not all will cash, there is a real possibility of a bunch of them cashing. Therefore, I can't see much being done until Leon is solidified. Then they may spend to the cap (including bonus') and determine how much they can pick up at the deadline based on which bonus' won't be earned. Say Pool Party goes to the AHL again, that would give over $8M in found cap money for a deadline acquisition.

With Puljujarvis bonmus, I can see him spending the year in the AHL until he is guaranteed not to hit any.

 

[Fourier]

I wonder if Connor gets a discount card to use at Rexall pharmacies? If so, color me green with envy!

Katz sold Rexall so he's paying full retail.

 

[joestevens29]

I haven't paid much attention to these boards lately other than checking here and there, but some of the comments as well as what I've heard on 1260(this morning again) is just ludicrous.

I can't wrap my head around people that wouldn't want to spend 12.5mil on one of the best players in the game. They'd rather get a lessor player and spread the wealth. Having a center that is one of the best in the game allows you to spend less on other parts of your team. Instead of having to bank on multiple elite wingers you can get away with 1. You can overcome not having a number 1 d-man. Have people not seen what Pittsburgh has done?

The guy out of Buffalo this morning suggesting that if Eichel won the Hart that he wouldn't want to spend in the neighborhood of 12.5mil on Eichel just seemed off base. I guess some people rather have multiple 5 million dollar men that are 50 point players instead of 1 100 point player that makes everyone around him better.